Creationism really is behind it all

Posted 27 March 2005 by

↗ The current version of this post is on the live site: https://pandasthumb.org/archives/2005/03/creationism-rea.html

http://www.armageddonbooks.com/kidguide.jpgEveryone check out “The Apocalypse Will Be Televised” by Gene Lyons at Harper’s Magazine. Lyons reviews the Left Behind series, a wildly popular set of novels that portray, in Tom Clancy style, the Rapture and Armageddon according to dispensationalist beliefs.  The antichrist is the head of the U.N. and looks like Robert Redford, the jews must convert or die, that kind of thing.  The novels are by prominent fundamentalist Tim LaHaye, who also helped found such notable organizations as the Moral Majority and the Institute for Creation Research (see the Who’s who of prophecy page on LaHaye).

It turns out that creationism is more closely tied to modern fundamentalist prophecy interpretation than I had previously appreciated.  I’ll quote the most relevant passages from Lyons’ article.

Describing the conclusion of the battle between Jesus and the Antichrist in the last Left Behind book, Lyons writes,

As in every action/adventure flick for rent at Blockbuster, it’s obligatory that Mr. Big survive until the final showdown. But we all know how this story ends. Our heroes’ need to array themselves against the mighty armies of the Antichrist on the battlefield at Armageddon is never explained; not only is the entire event being televised worldwide like some cosmic Super Bowl but everything’s foreordained to happen precisely as it does happen (as we’re repeatedly assured by the scholarly Dr. Rosenzweig, whose timely conversion has turned him into Tribulation Force’s number one Jew for Jesus). God finished this screenplay a very long time ago, and there aren’t going to be any rewrites. “Lucifer, dragon, serpent, devil, Satan,” the archangel Gabriel commands, “you will now face the One you have opposed from time immemorial.” After which Jesus adds, “For all your lies about having evolved, you are a created being.”

Evolved? It all comes down to that? God is going to straighten Satan out about evolution versus creationism on Judgment Day? Apparently so. There will also be happy political consequences in getting rid of all the skeptics, unbelievers, and adepts of rival faiths. Rayford wonders if, just maybe, with only believers “left in the United States … would there be enough of them to start rebuilding the country as, finally for real, a Christian nation?”

(Gene Lyons, "The Apocalypse Will Be Televised")

Satan claims he evolved?  That’s news to me.  I wonder where he fits on the phylogenetic tree — perhaps a highly modified hoofed animal, like whales?  Lyons continues:

How seriously the rest of us need to take a primitive revenge fantasy like the Left Behind novels is hard to say. While daydreaming about Armageddon, most readers, I’m guessing, are also signing off on thirty-year mortgage notes and keeping their life insurance up to date. Intellectually, the “rapture racket,” as Barbara R. Rossing calls it in her lucid and passionate book The Rapture Exposed, owes its origins to nineteenth-century turmoil over Darwinism. A professor of the New Testament at the Lutheran School of Theology in Chicago, Rossing argues persuasively that certain people are attracted to Darby’s “dispensationalist system with its Rapture theology because it is so comprehensive and rational—almost science-like—a feature that made it especially appealing during battles over evolution during the 1920s and 1930s.”

(Gene Lyons, "The Apocalypse Will Be Televised")

This all makes sense — Biblical literalists are going to be literal with everything in the Bible — but those of us who focus on the scientific arguments about Earth’s prehistory often lose track of the fact that for the young-earth creationists, this is all one package, starting with Genesis 6,000 years ago and extending straight through to World War III in the Holy Land Sometime Real Soon Now.

193 Comments

kay · 27 March 2005

Let's hope that the literal Rapture takes away those who literally believe in it so we can get on with life.

Ben · 27 March 2005

Jesus wept.

rampancy · 27 March 2005

Jesus called.

He wants His religion back.

PZ Myers · 27 March 2005

One quibble: how can anyone claim that dispensationalism is a literal interpretation of the Bible? It's numerological nonsense and schizophrenic hallucinations and loads and loads of made-up blather.

Oh, wait...maybe it is biblical, after all.

Buridan · 27 March 2005

It should also be noted that most devotees of the LaHaye (and Frank Peretti) novels do not read these fictions as fiction per se. The plot line and even some of the characters are taken as very real for these dispensationalists. This theological belief system provides the backbone for the religious right and also provides one of the better windows into this extremely paranoid world. I recommend everyone read at least one of these tales of religious paranoia. They're quite revealing. Pick one up at your local library, however, they're not worth buying.

PvM · 27 March 2005

God is going to straighten Satan out about evolution versus creationism on Judgment Day?

Indeed. God is going to expose the satanic influence over creationism, leading astray so many Christians

Dan S. · 27 March 2005

"Satan claims he evolved?"

That *is* a really weird bit. Does anyone believe this, either as fact or story?
What on earth are L&J getting at here? Is it just another odd attempt to smear evolution as Satanic, or is there some sort of theological basis, however wacky?

World ends at 9 pm today! - News at 11.

Dan S. · 27 March 2005

I've had a suprising number of people, from various walks of life, in full possession of their wits and by no means unintelligent, confide in me their feelings that we are really living in the End Times. Mostly since I moved to Philly, which might have something to do with it, but nevertheless, it's really strange. I really do wonder how, as mentioned above, it affects various mundane decisions. People have brought this up in relation to environmentalism, etc. - anybody know of studies?

Folks aren't piling up and burning their possessions yet, anyway . . .

Jim Harrison · 27 March 2005

I expect that the Left Behind series is popular for the same reason that the DaVinci Code sells millions. Both offer a highly literal version of issues of ultimate concern, the former replacing myth with science fiction, the later turning a spiritual mystery into a murder mystery. Fundamentalism as a whole fits this pattern since it is marked by the reduction of religious faith to adherence to a series of flat propositions, a kind of doctrinal positivism.

afarensis · 27 March 2005

It's my impression that the linking of satat with evolution goes back to Henry Morris, at least. The idea has been around for awhile anyway.

steve · 27 March 2005

"Lucifer, dragon, serpent, devil, Satan," the archangel Gabriel commands, "you will now face the One you have opposed from time immemorial." After which Jesus adds, "For all your lies about having evolved, you are a created being. Who should be paying a flat tax."

QrazyQat · 27 March 2005

David Heddle · 27 March 2005

One quibble: how can anyone claim that dispensationalism is a literal interpretation of the Bible? It's numerological nonsense and schizophrenic hallucinations and loads and loads of made-up blather. Oh, wait . . . maybe it is biblical, after all.

PZ, no doubt unintentionally, says something intelligent (and then quickly returns to his fatuous norm.) While dispensationalism claims to be literalist, and in many cases is hyper-literal, at its heart it is an invention. The basis of dispensationalism is not the rapture and the 1000 years of Revelation, but the belief that Jesus offered the kingdom to the Jews and they turned him down. This is in spite of the fact that no such offer is recorded in scripture. Beginning with this nonexistent event, dispensationalism then argues that the church age is an unforeseen "parenthetical" age. God has to, at some point, according to this misguided theology, return to deal with the Jews. Hence the rapture to get the church out of the way, hence the millennial kingdom where attention is focused on the Jews.

Buridan · 27 March 2005

Wrong again David. John Nelson Darby, the father of dispensationalism, was the first to suggest the doctrine of the rapture and it's been a central feature ever since.

David Heddle · 27 March 2005

Buridan,
The rapture is a central feature but it is not the "axiom." You understand the difference, I assume? The central axiom is the rejection of Jesus' supposed offer. Read any book on dispensationalism, by either friend or foe.
Do you think by dropping Darby's name you prove your point? Interesting logic. Or rather lack thereof, a PT specialty.

If the rapture were definitive aspect of dispensationalism, then Darby couldn't be its father. Premillennialism goes back to the early church. The fact that God has unfinished business with the Jews and tthat he church age was unforseen is what is particular to dispensationialism.

Buridan · 27 March 2005

Do you think by dropping Darby's name you prove your point?

— David Heddle
What?

Read any book on dispensationalism, by either friend or foe.

— David Heddle
A good portion of my theological library contains books on dispensationalism, by dispensationalists, and by dispensationalist foes. I've read them all and I'm not an amateur in these matters. Yes, I think dropping this tidbit strengthens my point. By the way, if anyone is interested in a rather large and respectable theological library, let me know ;-) In any event, I'm not going to be sucked into a theological discussion on this topic, here or anywhere. I've paid my dues in this regard a long time ago and I find such talk uninteresting. And as I said in another post, discussing religion is not the same as discussing theology. I enjoy the former and not the latter for the most part.

Keanus · 27 March 2005

Apocalyptic visions, which is how I regard the Left Behind series, have been a staple of religion for centuries, and it's just the latest manifestations of an end of the world forecast, only in this case with more publicity and no specific date. Like most astrologers, LeHaye and Jenkins avoid being specific about things that could be checked. As with all such prognostications it will fall of its own failure, only without a specific date, that death may be lingering. In the meantime its current promoters have found a commercial and legitimate way to cash in, handsomely, on the gullibility of their audience.

But I think the importance of this nonsense is overblown. Yes, LaHaye and Jenkins have sold something like 40 or 50 million books, depending on what's being counted , but that's for 12 novels (or maybe it's 13 or 14) or four to five million each. Considering that most readers probably buy several of the novels (and real martyrs buy all of them!) we're talking about at least four million folks but probably more like eight of nine. That's not even all the fundamentalists in the country. Those numbers will diminish when LaHaye and Jenkins prove to be false prophets. A social phenomena worth noting? Yes. A phenomena with legs? Probably not.

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 27 March 2005

PZ, no doubt unintentionally, says something intelligent (and then quickly returns to his fatuous norm.) While dispensationalism claims to be literalist, and in many cases is hyper-literal, at its heart it is an invention. The basis of dispensationalism is not the rapture and the 1000 years of Revelation, but the belief that Jesus offered the kingdom to the Jews and they turned him down. This is in spite of the fact that no such offer is recorded in scripture. Beginning with this nonexistent event, dispensationalism then argues that the church age is an unforeseen "parenthetical" age. God has to, at some point, according to this misguided theology, return to deal with the Jews. Hence the rapture to get the church out of the way, hence the millennial kingdom where attention is focused on the Jews.

Thanks for once again regaling us with your religious opinions, David. Why, again, are your religious opinions any more authoritative than mine, my next door neighbor's, my car mechanic's, or the kid who delivers my pizzas? Since your religious opinions are just that, your opinions, and are no more holy or divine or infallible or authoritative than anyone else's religious opinions, I am wondering (yet again) why you would feel that anyone should be obligated in any way, shape, or form to follow your religious opinions, to accept them, or even to pay any attention at all to them. .

Ed Darrell · 27 March 2005

But by dropping Darby's name, one informs those people who follow thoelogy seriously. Alas, that means one usually loses creationists.

At least people who follow evolution usually know who Darwin is.

Russell · 27 March 2005

- (after recently pledging to be more polite) - Interesting logic. Or rather lack thereof, a PT specialty.

— David Heddle
PT, as you know, is not responsible for the rationality of the comments posted to it. Care to share with us what you regard as "PT's specialty illogic" in the actual PT posts? Something more illogical, say, than believing the bible to be infallible?

Norm · 27 March 2005

Someone mentioned a bumper sticker they'd seen that said:

"Come the Rapture, can I have your car?"

Pete Dunkelberg · 27 March 2005

In all fairness and balanced-ness you must also read Good Omens.

John Wilkins · 27 March 2005

Clearly Satan is harmless, as Cuvier noted. The apocryphal story goes that Cuvier, who claimed to be able to describe an entire animal from several functional characters like teeth (well before the evolutionary attempts that creationists like to mock; Cuvier was opposed to evolution back in the 1810s), was once surprised in his bedchamber by some students, one of whom was dressed as Satan.

"I am Satan, and I am here to eat your soul!" declared the imposter.

Cuvier replied, "Horns, therefore herbivore. You can't eat me!"

Gould, in some essay or other, doubts that this happened only because nobody would have dared to disturb Cuvier. But as he was opposed to evolution, we can rely upon his authority nonetheless.

Buridan · 27 March 2005

But by dropping Darby's name, one informs those people who follow theology seriously. Alas, that means one usually loses creationists. At least people who follow evolution usually know who Darwin is.

— Ed Darrell
Yes, indeed Ed. And David even got the early church's chiliasm confused with premillennial dispensationalism (pre-trib variety - redundant). Oh well, I guess if all you read on the matter is Ryrie, Scofield and ilk, such confusions will abound. Hey, this dropping exercise (PT illogic) is fun. ;-)

Wesley R. Elsberry · 27 March 2005

The choice recent bit of illogic on PT being, of course, David Heddle's remark in comment 20,679, saying that ID predicts that we will not observe multiverses, therefore ID is falsifiable.

That had two problems: (1) ID cannot predict any such thing, and (2) the statement of the "prediction" is a pure existential statement, one of a class of statements which Popper specifically demonstrated were unfalsifiable.

Michael Rathbun · 27 March 2005

Given that ID must inescapably posit at least one supernatural Designer, ID must logically posit not less than one "superverse". The existence of a superverse suggests the existence of multiverses. Therefore ID predicts... not much.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Buridan:

David even got the early church's chiliasm confused with premillennial dispensationalism.

And where did I do that? I pointed out that, contrary to what you suggested, belief in a rapture followed by an earthly kingdom is not unique to dispensationalism. (Actually, a rapture is common to all end times views; when Christ returns living believers will be caught up in the air, it's a question of what happens next.) Darby is not the father of a belief in the rapture, or in premillennialism, but the father of an entire systematic theology (dispensationalism) based on the notion, made of whole cloth, that the Jews refused Christ's offer of a kingdom, that includes a rapture and features it prominently. Elsberry:

That had two problems: (1) ID cannot predict any such thing, and (2) the statement of the "prediction" is a pure existential statement, one of a class of statements which Popper specifically demonstrated were unfalsifiable.

You continue to hang your hat on logic that denies the obvious: ID posits that this universe was fine-tuned for life. Therefore it predicts that science will continue to demonstrate that feature of the cosmos. Therefore, if science demonstrates otherwise either by (a) demonstrating that this universe is not fine tuned after all, or (b) demonstrating that this universe is only one of an infinite number of universes, thereby rendering the claim that we are naturally in one of the lucky ones irrefutable, then ID is dead in the water. Many who offer it as an explanation will withdraw their support. In the face of that, all you can do, and I can understand why, is chant that "Popper says that's not falsifying, Popper says that's not falsifying, Popper says . . . ." So if current, active research in any of a number of multiverse theories pans out, and I retract my support for ID and say that "I used to believe it, but as a result of experimental data I no longer do" you'll then tell me: "Oh, but it wasn't falsified, granted you believed it before and now, because of an experiment, you don't, but that's not 'falsified', because Popper..."

Steve Reuland · 28 March 2005

You continue to hang your hat on logic that denies the obvious: ID posits that this universe was fine-tuned for life.

— David Heddle
Your premise is wrong. ID does not posit anything about the universe, other than the fact that some aspect of it (usually, the creatures that inhabit it) were "designed". Starting with that postulate, there is no logical requirement for any particular aspect of the universe to have any particular characteristic. Proving fine-tuning wrong would not prove ID wrong, nor would it cause any significant fraction of ID advocates to abandon their beliefs. Sorry for the derailment.

Wesley R. Elsberry · 28 March 2005

You continue to hang your hat on logic that denies the obvious

— David Heddle
David, you misspelled "I" in the above. What is obvious is that "falsification" has a specific technical meaning and associated import in discussion of the philosophy of science. ID advocates and cheerleaders equivocate when they say "ID is falsifiable" because they invariably mean something other than what Popper established "falsifiable" as meaning. They wish to appear to hold a stance associated with risky positions and tentativeness of their conclusions, but when push comes to shove, we always find that what is actually offered are vague existential statements which are in no way entailed by anything in "intelligent design". I will continue to point out such unseemly and unscholarly behavior whenever I encounter it. Given David's brazenly recidivist tendencies on this point, that would appear to be often. I've already given Dembski's assertion of the fundamental claim of "intelligent design" and shown that multiverses have nothing to do with the conjecture. It is obvious that David has not addressed what I said before, and is reduced to endless re-assertion of his discredited statement.

That's a straightforward non sequitur. There is no prediction from "intelligent design" that multiverses are forbidden. Multiverses are not incompatible, inconsistent, or contradictory to "intelligent design". They would simply make the probabilities as asserted by Dembski and comrades more amenable to natural mechanisms without resort to "intelligent design". [...] David's original assertion was that he would recant ID if the existence of multiverses was demonstrated. The sloppiness of David's assertions about scientific falsifiability are apparent in the fact that there would be no necessity for other ID cheerleaders or advocates to do the same on appearance of the same item of empirical evidence. The only reason that multiverses might affect David's embrace of ID is not anything about the structure of ID itself (and therefore something to do with hypothesis A), but rather because multiverses would go some way toward apparent corroboration of a competing hypothesis (hypothesis B). Thus, I conclude that I am not missing anything here, as Heddle's rejoinder implies, and Heddle's assertion that ID (as hypothesis A) "predicts" the absence of multiverses is simply more whiny weaseling.

— WRE
I'm not sure why David is continuing to try to spur on his dead horse. It seems most illogical on his part.

StevR · 28 March 2005

David Heddle writes: "... when Christ returns living believers will be caught up in the air..."

Are these people so terrified of death that they will embrace ANY religious dogma that promises them eternal life, regardless of an abundance of contrarian scientific data, not to mention common sense ?

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Proving fine-tuning wrong would not prove ID wrong, nor would it cause any significant fraction of ID advocates to abandon their beliefs.

Wrong. It would (or at least should) cause all cosmological IDers to abandoned the claim that there is scientific evidence for design of the cosmos. They might not stop believing in God, but they would be forced to acknowledge that any scientific evidence for ID was lost. Elsberry: I postulate a though experiment. Just a simple question presented to all Ph.D. scientists, something like this. A scientist believes in A. A predicts a null result to an experiment. The experiment is performed, and unambiguously and repeatedly produces a positive result. The scientist retracts his support for A. Would you say that the experiment falsified A? I predict the overwhelming response would be yes. You, on the other hand, seem to suggest that the majority response would be "Well no, not according to Popper!"

Emanuele Oriano · 28 March 2005

Mr. Heddle, you still fail to show how

A predicts a null result to an experiment.

applies to cosmological ID. What several people have already repeatedly pointed out is that nothing in ID, cosmological or otherwise, implies necessarily anything else. I have personally offered you four different scenarios that were all compatible with "cosmological ID", with very different postulates in term of existing vs. non-existing other universes and with their eventual fundamental constants. In order for you to claim that ID "predicts" anything, you have to show that no alternative would be compatible. Warning: "cosmological ID" and "(David Heddle's brand of) Christianity" are not one and the same. Maybe your personal beliefs are incompatible with anything except one very specific scenario; but that does not mean that "cosmological ID" is. I believe GWW coined the expression DHID to underscore the difference between these two concepts.

Russell · 28 March 2005

if science demonstrates otherwise either by... ...[a couple of things there's no chance of demonstrating anyway, but that's neither here nor there]... then ID is dead in the water. Many who offer it as an explanation will withdraw their support.

— David Heddle
Just out of curiosity, do you really believe that? My experience is that the overwhelming majority of "ID supporters" are good old fashioned Christian fundamentalists - the folks described in the post to which these comments are appended. All this discussion of cosmological fine-tuning and multiverses matters not a whit to the folks who show up to pressure the school board.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Russell

My experience is that the overwhelming majority of "ID supporters" are good old fashioned Christian fundamentalists

If by Christian fundamentalists you mean YEC, then, as far as cosmological ID is concerned, you are dead wrong. Two groups that are united in their zealous battle against cosmological ID are YEC (because cosmological ID affirms an old earth) and Panda's Thumb contributors.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Russell: You wrote:

. . . [a couple of things there's no chance of demonstrating anyway, but that's neither here nor there] . . .

Referring to, I gather, multiverse theories. If they cannot be falsified, are they science? And if they are not science, why are they fair game for peer reviewed journals? (And Scientific American.) And if they are (multiverse theories) are not science, and still get published in peer reviewed journals, what, if anything, does it say about the editors of those journals?

Michael I · 28 March 2005

One important note.

David Heddle's contention that "fine-tuning" supports ID is false.

Given the observation that life exists and the assumption that the universe is naturalistic, then we MUST observe that the universe is life-friendly (physical laws permit the existence of life). However if life exists and there is a designer then we may or may not observe a life-friendly universe. The observation of "life-friendliness" therefore cannot undermine the hypothesis of a naturalistic universe and is neutral only under strong assumptions on either the intentions or the powers of the designer. The extent to which the "life-friendliness" is "fine-tuned" is irrelevant to this argument.

See http://quasar.as.utexas.edu/anthropic.html for more details.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Yes Michael I am waiting for the peer-reviewed version of that paper, which if I am not mistaken "proves" that the more fine tuned the universe is, the less likely it was designed. It contains the statement:

Not only is it wrong, but in fact we will show that the observation that the universe is "fine-tuned" in this sense can only count against a supernatural origin of the universe

Do you have the reference to the peer reviewed version? The barebones html from a Texas website is a bit hard to read.

Russell · 28 March 2005

David Heddle:

If by Christian fundamentalists you mean YEC, then, as far as cosmological ID is concerned, you are dead wrong. Two groups that are united in their zealous battle against cosmological ID are YEC (because cosmological ID affirms an old earth) and Panda's Thumb contributors.

Perhaps I'm not making myself clear. It gets down to this: ID is not science, it's politics. And, as you know, politics makes strange bedfellows. Sure, there are some diehards who insist on jesuitical arguments about these details, but I'm telling you, the folks that passionately orate to the school board about ID are YECers. I know; I'm there.

Referring to, I gather, multiverse theories. If they cannot be falsified, are they science? And if they are not science, why are they fair game for peer reviewed journals? (And Scientific American.) And if they are (multiverse theories) are not science, and still get published in peer reviewed journals, what, if anything, does it say about the editors of those journals?

Tell you what: at least for the sake of argument, I'll grant you this. I'm no expert on cosmology, either theoretical or experimental. My 2 points are: (a) I don't think there's any danger this is going to be clearly answered in the foreseeable future, so it's a safe dodge for people who want "reasons to believe" and (b) more importantly, those YECers orating to the schoolboards could really give a flying fork about multiverses.

GCT · 28 March 2005

Once again, it should be pointed out to David Heddle that ID falsified to David Heddle is not the same as ID is falsified. Besides, when the supernatural is involved, anything is possible, so the contention that multiple universes falsifies ID is ludicrous. The omnipotent designer could have made any amount of universes and still made ours exactly the way it is.

Besides, David, you contend that ID is NOT science, so why does it even matter? Why do you come onto a science blog to defend a non-science?

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Once again, it should be pointed out to David Heddle that ID falsified to David Heddle is not the same as ID is falsified.

That statement can rest on its own merits.

when the supernatural is involved, anything is possible, so the contention that multiple universes falsifies ID is ludicrous. The omnipotent designer could have made any amount of universes and still made ours exactly the way it is.

Oh, the old PT fallback: since the designer can design anything, anything is evidence of design, ergo nothing is evidence for design.

Why do you come onto a science blog to defend a non-science?

I would never defend ID on a science blog. On a political blog, like PT, I'll defend it (I guess until I get banned.)

GCT · 28 March 2005

Oh, the old PT fallback: since the designer can design anything, anything is evidence of design, ergo nothing is evidence for design.

— David Heddle
You posit that the universe was designed by an omnipotent designer, correct? Why would that designer not be able to create/design multiple universes? Even if you think us to be a special creation (which is exactly what this sounds like,) who are you to say that the omnipotent designer did not make multiple universes? Who are you to say that multiple universes would destroy everyone's ID, and not just your own philosophical version of it? If I can paraphrase the Rev. Dr. Lenny, what makes your version of ID better than anyone else's version of ID? You've also said before that one can not prove/disprove god, so how would finding multiple universes be that proof?

Emanuele Oriano · 28 March 2005

Mr. Heddle:

Just in case you have overlooked it, I'll draw your attention to my old question.

Since EVERY scenario appears to be compatible with cosmological ID, why do you claim that one particular scenario would falsify cosmological ID?

Please let us know why you think that cosmological ID implies one specific scenario.

Steve Reuland · 28 March 2005

Wrong. It would (or at least should) cause all cosmological IDers to abandoned the claim that there is scientific evidence for design of the cosmos.

— David Heddle
Abandoning the argument is not the same thing as falsifying the theory. If the fine-tuning argument goes up in smoke, it doesn't demonstrate that the universe was not designed. There is no experiment or observation which could demonstrate that, hence it's not falsifiable. As for who would abandon it, it's my experience that IDers rarely if ever abandon an argument for the mere reason that it's wrong. Maybe the cosmological types are different, and I'm willing to grant that you're different, but I doubt we'd see the Phil Johnsons of the world start warning people not to use it. What's more likely to happen, at best, is that the goal posts will get moved and then the next Big Mystery about the universe will be used as evidence for ID.

Wesley R. Elsberry · 28 March 2005

I postulate a though experiment. Just a simple question presented to all Ph.D. scientists, something like this. A scientist believes in A. A predicts a null result to an experiment. The experiment is performed, and unambiguously and repeatedly produces a positive result. The scientist retracts his support for A. Would you say that the experiment falsified A? I predict the overwhelming response would be yes. You, on the other hand, seem to suggest that the majority response would be "Well no, not according to Popper!"

— David Heddle
Back in the opening of "Operation Iraqi Freedom", speculations about whether or not Saddam Hussein had bought it in the opening strike, or any number of subsequent strikes, abounded. One TV news organization, whose name I don't remember, invited its listeners to partake in a viewer response poll: "Saddam is dead, call 1-800-VOTE-YES; Saddam is alive, call 1-800-VOTE-NAY" or similar call-in numbers, and then reported something like 75% of viewers declaring Saddam to be dead. And we all know how accurate that turned out to be. Heddle doesn't seem to appreciate that his position is no better principled than that of the Big TV News company with its poll on whether Saddam was alive or dead in the big black box of Iraq. All such a poll as Heddle suggests could discover is what proportion of the sample population knew something about the denotation of "falsification". The overwhelming response of Ph.D. scientists to such a question might well be "yes" without addressing the issue of whether that state of affairs was true. One doesn't need a poll of scientists to figure that out; one person actually looking at what Popper wrote is sufficient to the task. I've done that. I've provided the direct references in the various links I have previously provided. David is reduced to still more whiny weaseling because he can't alter reality to make his false statements look any better. So, like many ID advocates and cheerleaders, he apparently thinks that another layer of spiffy rhetoric will disguise the rusted-out junker he wishes to sell us as a spanking new BMW. Heddle's approach here has been relentlessly illogical. Actually, it is anti-logical, in that he doesn't engage the arguments, but seeks to bypass them. And Heddle's hypothetical poll doesn't even match the situation. For ID doesn't "predict" the absence of multiverses. I've been over this several times now. ID is simply the alternative that ID's advocates and cheerleaders assert is possible once all natural alternatives are shown to be either false or unlikely. The existence or absence of multiverses has no impact upon ID itself; the only effect of the evidence is to alter one's assessment of the likelihood of a natural hypothesis to account for fine-tuning, "irreducible complexity", and "specified complexity". So, the real question to ask a bunch of Ph.D. scientists is: A scientist would like to test conjectured causative factor A, but cannot think of any effect that A has upon the real world. Instead, the scientist offers to disprove every possible alternative explanation of events that A might cause, and then assert that A has been tested and found to be correct. Is this scientist applying an appropriate experimental design? Is this scientist doing science? I predict that the overwhelming response would be "No" and "No".

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Elsberry:

one person actually looking at what Popper wrote is sufficient to the task. I've done that.

You contribution to science cannot be measured.

Andrew · 28 March 2005

Before anyone responds to David Heddle, I think we all need to make sure this isn't more of his patented unfunny humor. After all, dispensationalism seems no more or less credible than the notion that original sin is encoded in our genes.

Great White Wonder · 28 March 2005

I never stop being fascinated by adults, like Heddle (allegedly), who refuse to admit defeat after their arguments have been utterly destroyed.

It's like watching a squirrel's tail flippin around on the highway after it's been run over by semi.

Heddle wants to poll Ph.D. scientists to determine the accuracy of Wesley's statement? Too funny.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Actually Andrew, you are wrong. Dispensationalism makes claims about its own veracity that can be tested, given that it purports to be the true biblically based systematic theology.

A statement such as "original sin might be encoded in our genes" even if not intended as humor would fall under the category of idle speculation. As long as it is not postulated as something serious, idle speculation is perfectly fine and fun. Kind of like multiverse theories, or the idea that wormholes can be used for time travel, or the counter arguments I've read to irreducible complexity on evolution blog, or the notion that Popper has once for all defined falsifiability and if we could just get everyone to read him we'd all be in agreement.

Buridan · 28 March 2005

I pointed out that, contrary to what you suggested, belief in a rapture followed by an earthly kingdom is not unique to dispensationalism. (Actually, a rapture is common to all end times views...)

— David Heddle
David, you don't know what the hell you're talking about! Please stop, you're making an ass out of yourself.

Fraser · 28 March 2005

Keanus, I'm glad someone agrees with me that the fuss over Left Behind is exaggerated. Having argued for years against assuming that You Are What You Read (e.g., Harry Potter=Satanist, Goosebumps books=passive drone [an argument from the Ayn Rand Institute that they show their protagonists as helpless victims of supernatural forces]) I've been uncomfortable with the arguments that "people who read Left Behind are being brainwashed into ..."

For a really funny analysis of the first book (and dead on, too), check out the slacktivist blog. But I reserve his suggestion on exploiting the rapture to make billions ("If you want the return of the men and women I have trapped in the fourth dimension, you must pay me $50 billion, Mr. President!") for my personal use!

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Buridan, What part of my statement you quoted is wrong? Go ahead, make an ass of me! If you can't point out which part of this:

belief in a rapture followed by an earthly kingdom is not unique to dispensationalism. (Actually, a rapture is common to all end times views . . . )

is wrong, then all you have done is made an ass out of yourself. To get you started, there are four major end times views: 1) Amillennialism 2) Postmillennialism 3) Historic Premillennialism 4) Premillennialism (the end times view of dispensationalism) (Yes there are pre-trib, mid-trib, and post-trib variants but that is not relevant) ALL of these views agree that when Christ returns there will be something akin to the rapture. None of them claim that living believers will drop dead when Christ returns. The first two views hold that the event will mark the end of history, so to speak. The second two views state that it heralds the onset of an earthly kingdom, typically (especially in #4) lasting exactly 1000 years. I taught a year-long course on this subject, would you like the notes? But don't forget my orginal challenge, show me the error in what you quoted, lest you have only demonstrated yourself as the ass.

DavidF · 28 March 2005

David Heddle,

You said "(Actually, a rapture is common to all end times views . . . )"

(bold mine)

The Jehovah's Witnesses, e.g., don't believe in a rapture yet they subscribe to an end time view and also are Millenialists.

Wesley R. Elsberry · 28 March 2005

You contribution to science cannot be measured.

— David Heddle
David is reduced from anti-logic to ungrammatical sarcasm. One would think that would wrap things up, but somehow I've got the feeling that we will be treated to a re-assertion of the original claim in the not-too-distant future.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Elsberry:

I've got the feeling that we will be treated to a re-assertion of the original claim in the not-too-distant future

If only to see you once again resort to "Popper this" and "Popper that" in trying to explain how cosmological ID is not falsifiable, in spite of the fact that it can be refuted by experiment.

Emanuele Oriano · 28 March 2005

Mr. Heddle,

please explain how does cosmological ID rule out any scenario concerning the existence or non-existence of other universes and the eventual uniqueness of their fundamental constants.

If you continue to avoid showing this, your assertion that "cosmological ID... can be refuted by experiment" is just white noise.

Thank you in advance for avoiding further divagation.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Emanuele, we have done this many times and then you devolve into some impenetrable metaphysics.

But I'll try again,

Here is what cosmological ID is to me. You can call it DHID if you like.

Cosmological ID is the hypothesis that our universe was designed to support life, and that the evidence for that design is seen in its fine tuning. If the fine tuning is proved to be an artifact of an incomplete understanding of cosmology, and vanishes when the present cosmology is replaced by one with no "fine tuning problems", or if multiverse theories are verified, theories that hold that there are an infinite number of universes with different expansion rates, constants, numbers of dimensions, etc, then cosmological ID is dead.

It is true that I could still claim "God did it that way, he created an infinite number of universes most of which are sterile, all for His glory." I could and might say that. Nevertheless that is not ID, but garden variety faith. ID doesn't "just" posit that God created the universe, but that he has left evidence in the form of fine tuning and also (perhaps to a lesser extent, I am still unclear on this) the observational advantage bestowed on our location.

Since alternate cosmologies are a rich field of investigation, the possibility of falsifying ID, at least as I defined it, is quite real.

Now I have a real question for the PT types. I do mean real---not snide or sarcastic. I would be interested in your answers, even Wesley's if he can drop the Popper thing.

It's about our transparent atmosphere. It seems to me evolution can explain quite convincingly that either (a) our eyes evolved to be sensitive to where the atmosphere is transparent or (b) our eyes evolved to be sensitive to the part of the spectrum where the sun's intensity peaks. But does it say anything about the fact that on earth those two things happen to overlap---i.e., that the atmosphere is transparent in the visible part of the spectrum? Is that viewed as a necessary condition for complex life or just our good fortune?

BTW, I had to look up the definition for divagation. Cool word.

Emanuele Oriano · 28 March 2005

Mr. Heddle: thanks for your reply, although I contend that the "impenetrable metaphysics" is a label way more suited to your own convoluted "explanations".

Cosmological ID is the hypothesis that our universe was designed to support life, and that the evidence for that design is seen in its fine tuning.

This is an interesting definition, but it doesn't help your case at all. The "hypothesis that our universe was designed to support life" does not imply that "the evidence for that design is seen in its fine tuning". You could very well have a universe designed to support life even if other universes were not so designed. Heck, you could very well have a universe designed to support life even if EVERY OTHER universe were similarly designed! Conversely, you could have a universe not designed to support life, yet with the very same appearance of fine tuning you claim for our own. So, A (the hypothesis that our universe is designed to support life) does not imply B (this universe is fine tuned), and B does not imply A. And this, you'll note, without even distinguishing between "appearance of fine tuning" and "fine tuning", which is my main problem with DHID.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Emanuelle,

I have never said that "the hypothesis that our universe was designed to support life implies that the evidence for design is in the fine tuning." I agree that God could design the universe without leaving evidence of his design behind, or He could even obfuscate the evidence. What I said is that the fine tuning is evidence for design, not that design implied fine tuning.

A non-fine-tuned universe could have been designed that way (therefore design does not imply fine tuning) or it could have occurred naturally.

A fine-tuned unique universe, so I posit, had to be designed.

I won't go any more iterations on this. Post a rebuttal and declare victory.

Do you have any thoughts on my question regarding the transparency of the atmosphere?

Great White Wonder · 28 March 2005

Is that viewed as a necessary condition for complex life"

If this is a "real" question, David, then you need to provide a "real" definition of what you mean by "complex".

jeff-perado · 28 March 2005

Russell wrote: David Heddle wrote: - (after recently pledging to be more polite) - Interesting logic. Or rather lack thereof, a PT specialty. PT, as you know, is not responsible for the rationality of the comments posted to it. Care to share with us what you regard as "PT's specialty illogic" in the actual PT posts? Something more illogical, say, than believing the bible to be infallible?

Hey cut Heddle some slack. He claims the bible is infallible, yet he won't even admit that scientifically, it is fatally flawed. He seems to think that there really are waterless clouds, and that in spite of genetic engineering it is still impossible to create a fig tree that bears olives, or a grapevine that bears figs. And he further thinks that all those saltwater desalination plants which produce fresh water from salt water are mere figments of (collective) humanities' imaginations. Heddle simply thinks that if the Bible says it is so, then it is so. That is his personal belief, and as we all know, personal beliefs have no bearing on reality, as I have shown with this simple disproof of the infallible bible's science. See: James 3:12 Jude 1:12 (Oh and all Jesus rhetoric and the OT proclamations of "stars falling to the Earth" is also priceless...) Heddle lives in a fantasy world: let him be. Otherwise he might be exposed to reality, and the consequences could be disasterous.

Emanuele Oriano · 28 March 2005

No problem, Mr. Heddle.

Fine tuning implies design

is not only "true"; it is a tautology, much like saying "Creation implies one or more creators", or "Design implies one or more designers". Of course, we can only ascertain whether our universe was fine tuned by finding the Fine Tuner, can't we? Otherwise, we are indeed back to square one: all we have is the appearance of design, and the wishful thinking of IDers. But the original point, if you recall, was your claim that the existence of multiple universes would disprove cosmological ID, was it not? So, allow me to bring the goalposts back to where they started: if our universe is indeed finely tuned, why couldn't one, more, or infinite other universes exist and be just as finely tuned? If they could, then your claim is false. On the subject of the transparency of atmosphere, I may be wrong but it looks to me like yet another example of misperception on your part.

But does it say anything about the fact that on earth those two things happen to overlap---i.e., that the atmosphere is transparent in the visible part of the spectrum?

Are you saying that "the visible part of the spectrum" is anything but the part of the electromagnetic spectrum that our eyes have evolved to perceive? And do you see any mechanism at all by which our eyes could have evolved to perceive frequencies that did not penetrate our atmosphere?

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Our atmosphere is transparent to the part of the EM spectrum in which the sun's intensity peaks. That is quite nice for us. Venus's atmosphere, for example, is not transparent to yellow. So had we evolved on Venus, would our eyes be most sensitive to where the atmosphere was transparent (but not where the sun's intensity was a maximum) or where the sun's intensity was a maximum (but the atmosphere not transparent)? We wouldn't have the luxury, as we do on earth, to say "both."

Evolution, being a science and all, must have a prediction to make about such matters.

Russell · 28 March 2005

Evolution, being a science and all, must have a prediction to make about such matters.

I don't know. What does nuclear physics, being a science and all, have to say about it?

Great White Wonder · 28 March 2005

It's not a good week for the "different worldview" types. Seems that their "different worldview" has turned out to be just a bunch of arrogant anti-social bible-thumping after all.

Death Sentence Thrown Out Because of Jury's Bible Reading By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Published: March 28, 2005 Filed at 2:45 p.m. ET DENVER (AP) -- The Colorado Supreme Court threw out the death sentence Monday of a man convicted of raping and killing a cocktail waitress because jurors consulted the Bible during deliberations. The court said Bible passages, including the verse that commands "an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth," could lead jurors to vote for death. The justices ordered Robert Harlan to serve life in prison without parole for the 1994 slaying of Rhonda Maloney. Harlan's attorneys challenged the sentence after discovering five jurors had looked up Bible verses, copied some of them down and then talked about them behind closed doors.

DavidF · 28 March 2005

I think David Heddle here raises a good point. In fact, such questions have driven a number of physicists to speculate that we are part of some sort of simulation.

I'm no ID-er but it is curious that a variety of special circumstances seem to be necessary for life on earth - e.g., the existence of a Jupietr like planet at larger than typical distances from its Sun (as compared to extrasolar planetary systems); circular planetary orbits - again, apparently an exception; a moon to prvent chaotic obliquity variations in Earth's orbit not to mention the fine tuning of the various fundamental constants. A recent article in MNRAS asks essentially "Is the Solar System unique."

http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2004.08237.x/abs/;jsessionid=g9iJk5HiFUpc

Such matters have little to do with evolution itself which is an indisputable fact - even Dr Davison grants that much. But there are unanswered questions and coincidences that are puzzling. It serves no useful purpose to conflate such questions with the more typical ID/YEC arguments that are put forth.

Ed Darrell · 28 March 2005

It's about our transparent atmosphere. It seems to me evolution can explain quite convincingly that either (a) our eyes evolved to be sensitive to where the atmosphere is transparent or (b) our eyes evolved to be sensitive to the part of the spectrum where the sun's intensity peaks. But does it say anything about the fact that on earth those two things happen to overlap---i.e., that the atmosphere is transparent in the visible part of the spectrum? Is that viewed as a necessary condition for complex life or just our good fortune?

Dogs don't see reds or yellows well. Most animals, in fact, are very much blind to red (which is why one uses a red flashlight when out observing owls at night). Bees see ultraviolet, and perhaps some birds do, too. Some snakes appear to be able to detect infrared. Moles are almost -- not quite -- blind, but have developed increased sensitivity in their noses (especially the star-nosed mole). We are just beginning to ascertain the vision sensitivities of sea creatures who live so deeply that light never reaches them from the surface. Who has a clue what will be found there? It appears to me that critters tend to evolve to take advantage of what is there. If what is there changes, for whatever reason, the light sensing organs may change to take advantage of the new configuration.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Russell:

Touche!

Great White Wonder · 28 March 2005

DavidF

Of course the yes/no question "Is the Solar System Unique" is rather different from the strange question asked by Heddle: "s the fact that on earth ... the atmosphere is transparent in the visible part of the spectrum ... just our good fortune"?

Assuming that David is being sincere when he proposes this as a "real" scientific question, what can the phrase "just our good fortune" possibly mean?

This is the point at which Heddle's arguments collapse into non-science drivel: "As I sit at my computer, I am so impressed by the universe that I simply must conclude it was designed! Please, gentle reader: hold my hand, close your eyes, and take a little trip with me!"

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

GWW,

Why is it a strange question? Is transparency of the atmosphere in the region of the star's peak intensity required, in your view, for complex life?

It's a fair question, I think.

Great White Wonder · 28 March 2005

Is transparency of the atmosphere in the region of the star's peak intensity required, in your view, for complex life?It's a fair question, I think.

Well, obviously I don't know the answer, David, as my understanding of what is "required" for "complex life" to arise on a planet is based on a single data point. Sadly, that is our reality in 2005. But I can't see why such transparency would be required for a simple life form to evolve into a complex life form, just as I can't see why moonlight, tides, an elliptical orbit, or a tilted axis would be required. And I don't know what point there would be in trying to hypothesize why such realities represent "necessary" realities for "complex" life when the minimal requirements for any life forms to evolve are not understood with absolute surety. Whether your question is "fair" or not is sort of beside the point. It's simply not a very interesting question, in my opinion, as biological questions go and, in light of your earlier phrasing of the question using the false "good fortune" dichotomy, more than a tad disengenuous.

Emanuele Oriano · 28 March 2005

Mr. Heddle:

once again, why do you find this surprising at all? If our planet supported sentient life but its atmosphere only allowed different bands of the spectrum to pass through, we would most likely possess receptors that could perceive that. What are you marveling at? What is the mystical significance of, say, a wavelength of 700 nanometers compared to one of 800 nanometers? Is it really so more strange than, say, my legs 'unbelievably' reaching all the way to the ground?

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Emanuelle, I am "marveling" at the coincidence that our atmosphere is transparent in the part of the spectrum where the sun's intensity peaks.

Michael I · 28 March 2005

Clarification to my comment up above (currently Comment #22165) on "fine-tuning" and Design.

While the extent of "fine-tuning" is irrelevant to the argument that "life-friendliness" can not undermine a naturalistic universe (and is only neutral under strong restrictions on the intentions of the deity), the extent of "fine-tuning" is not irrelevant to the amount of support "life-friendliness" provides to a naturalistic universe. In fact, increased "fine-tuning" tends to increase support for a naturalistic universe, absent fairly strong assumptions about the intentions of the deity.

See http://quasar.as.utexas.edu/anthropic.html for further details. The page can also be found at http://bayesrules.net/anthropic.html

steve · 28 March 2005

Somewhere on Zarbonia, a Zarbonian zealot tells some sensible Zorbonians, "Isn't it profound that our eyeballs are perfectly tuned to the infrared? They are exactly designed such that we can see other Zarbonians in the dark. Truly, god, who looks like a white-bearded Zarbonian, is awesome."

DavidF · 28 March 2005

Well, I don't think David H's question in this case is so ridiculous; people seem to be attacking the conclusions that he might be trying to reach from his question. But it is an excellent question; to what extent has evolution been driven by the photochemistry that is possible from having an atmosphere that is transparent to solar radiation coincident with where solar radiation peaks. Given that the atmosphere absorbs much visible radiation as it is, then surely this is an interesting and almost certainly relevant factor to how life evolved on Earth. So, just how important is it?

Great White Wonder · 28 March 2005

people seem to be attacking the conclusions that he might be trying to reach from his question.

"Might be trying"? How quaint.

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 28 March 2005

Cosmological ID is the hypothesis that our universe was designed to support life

That's nice. How was it designed. What designed it. What did the designer(s) do, specifically. What mechanisms did they use to do it. Where can we see these mechanisms in action today. What sort of "life" was it designed to support. Bacteria? Eukaryotes? Mammals? If the universe was not suitable for life before the designer designed it to be, then, uh, how did the designer survive? If the universe WAS suitable for life before the designer designed it (after all, the designer must be alive, right?), then, uh, what's the sense in saying that the designer designed it to produce life? And whatever answer you give to these questions about your, uh, scientific theory, please tell us how to test them using the scientific method. Or is "POOF!!! God -- uh, I mean, the Unknown Intelligent Designer -- dunnit !!!!!" the extent of your, uh, "scientific theory of ID cosmology" . . . . . . . . . ? If the "scientific theory of ID cosmology" consists solely of your religious opinions (as it indeed seems to), then perhaps you'd be so kind as to explain to me why your religious opinions are any more authoritative than mine or my next door neighbor's or my car mechanic's or the kid who delivers my pizzas -- without running away, this time. Either show us your science, David, or tell us why your religious opinions are better than anyone else's. Put up or shut up. Fish or cut bait. Poop or get off the toilet. .

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 28 March 2005

I would never defend ID on a science blog.

Would you be willing to submit a statement to the Dover judge to the effect that ID is not science, but religion? .

steve · 28 March 2005

Is that Heddle's question, or your question?

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 28 March 2005

once again, why do you find this surprising at all? If our planet supported sentient life but its atmosphere only allowed different bands of the spectrum to pass through, we would most likely possess receptors that could perceive that. What are you marveling at? What is the mystical significance of, say, a wavelength of 700 nanometers compared to one of 800 nanometers? Is it really so more strange than, say, my legs 'unbelievably' reaching all the way to the ground?

I call this the 'Texas marksman' phenomenon. it happens when a macho guy from Texas shoots an arrow at the side of the barn, walks over and paints a bulls-eye around it, then jumps up and down and brags about what a great marksman he is, since he hit the bulls-eye dead-center. Of course, if the arrow had hit ten feet to the left, he'd be jumping up and down about how wonderful it is that he hit THAT bulls-eye instead. Heddle is doing the same thing.

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 28 March 2005

I taught a year-long course on this subject, would you like the notes?

No, but I would like to see the certificate from God that gives you the divine authority to speak on His behalf.

But don't forget my orginal challenge,

But my dear David, YOU seem awfully reluctant to meet MY original challenge; Just repeat after me, David, "My religious opinions are just that, my opinions. They are no more holy or divine or infallible or authoritative than anyone else's religious opinions. No one is obligated in any way, shape, or form to follow my religious opinions, to accept them, or even to pay any attention at all to them. My religious opinions are right for *me*. Whether they are right for *you*, I neither know nor care." *I* am willing to say that, David. Publicly and unequivocably. Are YOU? Or are you too pridefully self-righteous and holier-than-everyone-else (literally) to choke those words past your lips. . . . Come on, David. It won't kill you. Honest, it won't. .

euan · 28 March 2005

Before you can claim that there is fine tuning, you have to show that any tuning is physically possible. There is no current physical theory that allows for tuning. String theory might do it, but nobody knows yet if it will. Taking the current universe and saying it is fine-tuned is an exercise in begging the question (the question being begged is whether there is any other way to get a physically self-consistent universe than the one we know about)

Furthermore, if you don't know how to vary physical constants, if you don't have a mechanism you can't claim anything about probabilities. This is pretty basic, really.

And why does God need to fine-tune the universe? Fine-tuning implies that God is constrained by physics, it's like why does God need a starship?

Emanuele Oriano · 28 March 2005

Mr. Heddle:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but... don't an awful lot of stars emit a great deal of light in the fraction of the EM spectrum that we have evolved to see? Is that another of your "coincidences"?

Now, it is true that our atmosphere is partially transparent to visible light. It is also partially transparent to a great many other wavelengths. Yet, our eyes, "mysteriously", have evolved to perceive a handy range of wavelengths that happen to abound on our planet. Is that a surprising "coincidence"?

We haven't evolved in other conditions. We simply don't know what paths another evolutionary history might take, given different conditions. Heck, we don't know what paths another evolutionary history might take even in conditions closely resembling our own! Why do you presume this is a problem? Are you still pursuing the false image of evolution as a purely deterministic process, the counterpart of the just as fallacious evolution as a purely random process canard?

Wesley R. Elsberry · 28 March 2005

If only to see you once again resort to "Popper this" and "Popper that" in trying to explain how cosmological ID is not falsifiable, in spite of the fact that it can be refuted by experiment.

— David Heddle
There's no such thing as "cosmological ID". There's only "cosmology is not explained by currently known natural mechanisms, oh, I think I'll insert a designer into this gap"-ism. Oh, I've already explained that before, several times now.

And Heddle's hypothetical poll doesn't even match the situation. For ID doesn't "predict" the absence of multiverses. I've been over this several times now. ID is simply the alternative that ID's advocates and cheerleaders assert is possible once all natural alternatives are shown to be either false or unlikely. The existence or absence of multiverses has no impact upon ID itself; the only effect of the evidence is to alter one's assessment of the likelihood of a natural hypothesis to account for fine-tuning, "irreducible complexity", and "specified complexity". So, the real question to ask a bunch of Ph.D. scientists is: A scientist would like to test conjectured causative factor A, but cannot think of any effect that A has upon the real world. Instead, the scientist offers to disprove every possible alternative explanation of events that A might cause, and then assert that A has been tested and found to be correct. Is this scientist applying an appropriate experimental design? Is this scientist doing science? I predict that the overwhelming response would be "No" and "No".

Please continue running away from the arguments, David. I think that the readers are being entertained by your antics.

Russell · 28 March 2005

Mr.(Dr?) Oriano: By pointing out that a lot of stars have similar spectra, you may think you're rendering David's observation less remarkable. Not so! I believe that David's inspiration in these things is a recent book entitled "Privileged Planet" - whose thesis is that life and the earth were uniquely designed to be ideal for discovering the rest of the universe. I believe, for instance, "Privileged Planet" makes the case that the diameter of the moon being a really good match for the diameter of the sun -relative to their distances from the earth - was specifically planned to facilitate astronomical observations during solar eclipses. So, by the same logic, it stands to reason that stars were designed to emit the kinds of EM radiation they do - so we could see them!

Emanuele Oriano · 28 March 2005

Russell:

I'm not a PhD. However, it doesn't take a PhD to notice that, by arguing backwards, one can support almost every conceivable scenario.

For instance, if one assumes that our being here at this particular juncture in time is somehow very, very significant, then one can easily conclude that everything in the history of the universe was specifically arranged ("fine-tuned", some would say) so that this momentuous fact could happen. But... do we really think we're that important? Talk about a superiority complex!

I simply see no reason to assume anything of this kind. And the moment you scratch the thin varnish of specious arguments that IDers have given their pet supernatural entity, you end up with the same old "Fine-Tuner of the Gaps" that has plagued us ever since we discovered that fire and lightning were not deities.

Buridan · 28 March 2005

Russell, I really hope you're just trying to be funny.

Russell · 28 March 2005

Buridan: hey, check out the book. I'm not making this stuff up!

Russell · 28 March 2005

By the way, PvM did a pretty good discussion of "Privileged Planet" here and here on Panda's Thumb.
(And, just in case there was any confusion as to whether I was endorsing the Privileged Planet argument above: no. I was just pointing out that what you or I might find comic, these guys are perfectly serious about!)

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Rev, I am willing to and have already agreed that my opinions are just my opinions. And my clothes are just my clothes. And my car is just my car. I still don't see your point.

Wes, you need to start banging a different drum.

David Heddle · 28 March 2005

Rev,

I have stated over and over that ID is not science. I'll be happy to say it to anyone.

Wesley R. Elsberry · 28 March 2005

Wes, you need to start banging a different drum.

— David Heddle
Well, if David starts using a different fallacy, that will be easy. Until then, the relentless embrasure of equivocation by David simply is a target that invites shredding over and over.

steve · 28 March 2005

Obviously in some situations the evolution of EM detectors, like eyes, would head to the highest frequency of radiation to which the atmosphere was transparent. That would give you the highest resolution. bees can see some UV we can't, though, and you can get info from infrared. Nothing mysterious about this. And about the sun, there's obviously other temperature/luminosity profiles you could fit life around.

"Wow, look how improbable this is!"
"How probable was it, exactly?"
"No idea! But I'm sure it was very, very improbable."

God of the Gaps arguments are lame. But, I find all apologetics lame. Science, on the other hand, is marvelous.

Buridan · 28 March 2005

Buridan: hey, check out the book. I'm not making this stuff up!

— Russell
Oh my god, I actually know Jay Richards from my seminary days. He was a crackpot then and I see he hasn't changed any since.

Henry J · 28 March 2005

Regarding whether ID predicts anything about number of "universes":

It seems to me that for a hypothesis to predict an observation (or probablility thereof), said prediction has to be a logical deduction from the premises assumed by that hypothesis. If "something engineered it" is the only agreed on assumption, then there isn't much of anything that can be deduced from that. Including the number of what we call "universes".

(Although imo some other word should be used here instead, perhaps "multiple space-times" instead of "multiple universes", since the word "universe" literally means all that is, so by that definition would include all existing space-times.)

Re physicists describing multiple universe hypotheses:

My take on that is that when a physicist proposes a multi-verse (or whatever) speculative hypothesis, it is an attempt at explaining a set of presently unexplained observations, and would if correct explain them.

In contrast, what the arguments for ID (the ones I've seen anyway) purport to explain is why there are unanswered questions. Well, AFAIK unanswered questions are inevitable for as long as there are beings to ask questions, ergo no explanation is needed for their existence.

Henry

Ed Darrell · 29 March 2005

No, Zarbonians have blue beards in old age, not white.

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 29 March 2005

I have stated over and over that ID is not science. I'll be happy to say it to anyone.

Glad tt hear it. I have stated over and over again that my religious opinions are just that, my opinions. They are no more holy or divine or infallible or authoritative than anyone else's religious opinions. No one is obligated in any way, shape, or form to follow my religious opinions, to accept them, or even to pay any attention at all to them. Are you happy to say THAT to anyone? Or are you too prideful, arrogant, self-righteous and holier-than-thou (literally)? Since we've now established that ID isn't science, it's time to establish why your religious ID opinions are any more authoritative than anyone else's religious opinions. Please do feel free to demonstrate at any time the source for your claimed religious authority, my dear David. And TRY to make it something better than "because I say so".

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 29 March 2005

Rev, I am willing to and have already agreed that my opinions are just my opinions.

Good. There may be hope for you after all. Now just take the next step, and agree that your religious opinions are not only just that, your opinions, but they are no more holy or divine or infallible or authoritative than anyone *else's* religious opinions. No one is obligated in any way, shape, or form to follow your religious opinions, to accept them, or even to pay any attention at all to them. It won't kill you, David. Honest, it won't.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

Rev:

Continuing our Zen session: my opinions are not holy or divine...

Buridan · 29 March 2005

Mine are...

GCT · 29 March 2005

David Heddle, you still don't understand the question, do you? You try to assert that ID is indeed falsifiable, but then you concede that what you have been describing is simply your very specific version of ID. If multi-universes are found to exist, it would destroy YOUR version of ID, but it would not falsify all of ID. The reason is that ID can be re-written - even your specific version - to include any eventuality, and THAT is the reason why you can not falsify it. Everything confirms, "goddidit," and "goddidit" can be an explanation for anything. It's not falsifiable and of utterly no use to science.

Furthermore, it is arrogant to think that if your personal philosophies are destroyed that it will cause all of ID to come crashing down.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

GCT,

Falsification is always at a personal level. Look at Hoyle: he believed in a steady state universe long after the data were sufficient to falsify it for everyone else. Similarly with Einstein and the probabilistic interpretation of QM.

Evolution is the same way. If an organism were discovered with no common DNA, then I suspect this would "falsify" evolution for some, while others would just say that life originated more than once.

Are you sure there is no test of evolution which, if it failed, would falsify evolution for some but not for all? Or is every falsification test for evolution guaranteed to convince 100% of all biologists?

I actually remember some falsification threads on PT where someone (pro-evolution) said X would falsify evolution and someone else (pro-evolution) said: "I don't think so, because..." indicating there was not universal agreement even among evolution proponenets about what would falsify evolution. Why should ID be required to supply a universally accepted falsification test?

Glen Davidson · 29 March 2005

If the atmosphere were opaque to the sun's electromagnetic radiation, IDists would be marveling over its capacity to support sound waves.

Perhaps more seriously, how would plants grow if the majority of radiation from the sun could not pass through our atmosphere? And on Venus, guess what? The sun's radiation cannot pass through.

Tube worm theologians will probably be praising the gods for shielding deep-sea vents from the sun, should they ever develop intelligence.

It's all a problem of cause and effect, this fact that we really cannot show that design caused whatever would be necessary for our current living conditions.

Furthermore, we don't need multi-verses to deal with any presumed "fine-tuning" of the universe for life. All we need is to recognize that what is in question is whether life is meaningful or not. You can't get from quantitative probabilities to the meaning of life in the cosmic sense.

Here's the issue in short: a universe is going to have possibilities for energy/information configurations. Some of these possibilities will support life, and some will not. If we don't know that life is anything special in a cosmic sense, there is absolutely no meaning to be inferred if possibilities for energy/information/life appear in one of many universes, or even in the one sole universe that ever exists (should this be the case). If the possibilities for life are meaningless in the cosmic sense, there is nothing to be known from the appearance of life in any universe (or in the one universe that can ever be).

People try to make life meaningful by showing that it is unlikely (whether this is true or not). Any energy/information possibility may be unlikely, but should we say that a demon made the universe because the miseries suffered by life appear in this universe?

An ancient Greek story has a demon telling the "truth of life", that it is better not to have been born, and that if one is unlucky enough to be born, the best hope is to leave life as soon as possible. Not my story, but one that has been believed by enough people to have survived down the ages.

If this Greek story tells the truth, then we are unlucky--or some "design" has specifically been created to produce unfortunate beings. Or one might turn it around, and suppose that life is a lucky accident--or some kind of "design". The point is that you have to have some meaning assigned to life prior to matching up its existence against the probabilities of its existence, and we have only our own evolved sensibilities to use (either positively or negatively). And there is nothing in the probabilities to tell us if life is sweet or sour.

GCT · 29 March 2005

There's a big difference between falsifying a theory and falsifying a hypothesis. Hypotheses are written so that they can be falsified. If they are repeatedly verified, they become theory or become part of a theory. Evolution is a full blown theory with many different hypotheses that have been written as ideas that could be scientifically falsified, but have not yet been falsified. If you falsify one of those hypotheses, it puts a kink in that specific part of the overall theory, but may not necessarily destroy the whole theory. It should be noted, however, that the hypotheses were all written to be falsifiable by the scientific method.

Now, with ID, there is no coherent theory. ID is a mish-mash of god-of-the-gaps philosophical arguments. What you have done is taken one specific outlook of ID (yours) drawn a line in the sand, and said that if the line is crossed, you will recant your specific outlook. There is no scientific hypothesis at stake here that can be falsified, only your personal philosophy. So, when or if your personal philosophy is debunked, it will not cause all of ID to come crashing down. If you don't understand the fact that "goddidit" is not falsifiable, then you have no concept of what science is.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

Glen Davidson

Furthermore, we don't need multi-verses to deal with any presumed "fine-tuning" of the universe for life.

You might want to alert the non-ID world-class cosmologists who are investigating alternate cosmologies for exactly that purpose: they are motivated by the unseemly appearance of fine-tuning. You know, tell them to stop wasting their time. I'm sure they would be thankful.

Glen Davidson · 29 March 2005

Falsification tests aren't the essential issue. Epistemologically this is because we really can only deal with positive evidence from our senses, and correlations must be made prior to using falsification tests within various proposed correlations. Popper got it wrong, although falsification is often a very good way to test a theory.

I have to agree, though, that it isn't easy to come up with a single falsification test for evolution. Undisputed rabbit fossils from the Cambrian are a favorite, but there really is nothing in rabbit fossils from the Cambrian that could falsify the evidence-based story of fish evolution in the Devonian. People mistake the general predictions of evolution as necessarily applying in every instance, when of course they need not. We have organisms today that show evidence of design, after all, and this evidence (which is typically due to human genetic engineering) does not falsify the evolution that led up to our subjects for experimentation and engineering.

Evolution is falsifiable, however, because it makes strong predictions regarding patterns. It could be falsified specifically in some cases, or in general if its predictions were never borne out. Popperian falsifiability does indeed work in the case of evolution, it's just that one should not confuse the fact that evolution by NS is now believed (and sufficiently shown) to be universally active in life (including in genetically engineered organisms--they have a tendency to select back more toward the "wild type") with the fact that it need not to have been universally explanatory--any more than language evolution theories apply straightforwardly to Esperanto. Cambrian rabbits (should they be found) might very well not have evolved, at least on earth. But we'd need data specific to fishes to indicate that they did not evolve independently of Cambrian rabbits, had they been discovered.

You'd need to give us falsification criteria and/or correlations that indicate that life is a "special outcome" before we could consider any kind of ID to be science. And because I can't even imagine how you can show that life is a "special outcome" prior to probabilistic calculations, and the latter cannot indicate life to be a "special outcome" through quantitative means alone, I don't think you're likely to meet the minimal criteria of science.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

GCT, From the first time I arrived on PT, to read Wesley's amusing "level playing field" urban legend, I have stated that ID is not science.

Evolution is a full blown theory with many different hypotheses that have been written as ideas that could be scientifically falsified, but have not yet been falsified. If you falsify one of those hypotheses, it puts a kink in that specific part of the overall theory, but may not necessarily destroy the whole theory.

Now, about evolution, suppose you started falsifying some of its hypotheses. Are you saying that there is a threshold before which evolution "stands" (for all believers) and after which it "falls" (for all believers)? If so, that is at least semi-miraculous. What I suspect is, for example, that after a certain number of hypotheses fell, especially if they were near and dear to you, at some point you'd abandon evolution. At the same time, perhaps GWW would hold on. In which case "GCT evolution" was falsified, while "GWW evolution" was not. (Pending, of course, Popper's annointing.)

Glen Davidson · 29 March 2005

You might want to alert the non-ID world-class cosmologists who are investigating alternate cosmologies for exactly that purpose: they are motivated by the unseemly appearance of fine-tuning. You know, tell them to stop wasting their time. I'm sure they would be thankful.

You obviously know incredibly little about cosmology. There are a variety of reasons that multi-verses are posited, most of which have to do with physics issues, and the sense that it is unlikely that conditions for creating a universe have been met only once. To suppose that physical criteria were met only once requires a kind of special pleading that goes contrary to science. Some do seem to be partly motivated over the "appearance of fine-tuning", however, which is their mistake. I do sometimes (well, rarely, since most don't listen to philosophers well--which is understandable considering how much bad philosophy is out there) tell them the philosophical reasons why "fine-tuning" is faulty reasoning, but the specialization of academia today means that many do not understand the problems with the "fine-tuning" arguments. As indeed you appear not to have, David, or you wouldn't be using your argument from authority fallacy to reply to the appropriate remarks that I made. Much better than dealing with your faulty philosophical basis, of course. You appeal to the mistake, made among some cosmologists, of assuming the specialness of life to bolster your own inadequate argumentation. This is why ID has to be countered, for you all lean on each other to hold up your baseless claims.

GCT · 29 March 2005

David, if ID is not science, then why do you even care? I've asked you this repeatedly, yet you don't answer. Also, your duplicitous nature makes me unwilling to trust you when you say that, "ID is not science," especially because you continually argue for ID and I believe I remember you arguing that ID should be taught in high school science classes.

If ID is not science, then scientific falsification is not an issue, and you shouldn't be pushing for it. Also, you shouldn't be peddling it here on a science-related site and trying to equate it to a robust scientific theory (evolution.)

Your idea of the semi-miraculous threshold is laughable. Evolution has made predictions and they have been shown to be correct, time and again, which is why it garnered the label of a theory in the first place. If it ceases to hold predictive power, it will be back to the drawing board. Once a hypothesis is falsified, however, no one would hold that it is still true, except for cranks, like the ID crowd that are peddling the same arguments that have been debunked for hundreds of years or longer.

Great White Wonder · 29 March 2005

What I suspect is, for example, that after a certain number of hypotheses fell, especially if they were near and dear to you, at some point you'd abandon evolution. At the same time, perhaps GWW would hold on.

Huh? Is your memory that short? I've given you examples of events that would render evolution (and many other theories) silly and useless and make ID creationism look like a profound insight. Do you recall what your reaction was to those examples? You scoffed at them because they were "miraculous"! And yes, I found that supremely ironic. And no, that wasn't when I stopped taking you seriously.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

Glen Davidson

You obviously know incredibly little about cosmology. There are a variety of reasons that multi-verses are posited, most of which have to do with physics issues, You appeal to the mistake, made among some cosmologists, of assuming the specialness of life to bolster your own inadequate argumentation.

Your insult does not hide the fact that you have missed the boat completely. None of non-ID cosmologists who investigate multiverses (and the like) are doing so because they assume "specialness of life". On the contrary, they are doing so to avoid the conclusion of the "specialness of life." Avoiding the fine-tuning is a physics issue, to the physicists, or at least that misguided subset that hasn't sought your advice. Hence Krauss' comment (in Scientific American and elsewhere) about the cosmological constant being the "worst fine tuning problem in physics." He is far from motivated by ID or an assumption of life's "specialness;" he categorically denies ID. He is motivated, however, by the appearance of fine-tuning.

I do sometimes (well, rarely, since most don't listen to philosophers well---which is understandable considering how much bad philosophy is out there) tell them the philosophical reasons why "fine-tuning" is faulty reasoning, but the specialization of academia today means that many do not understand the problems with the "fine-tuning" arguments.

Bad physicists who don't listen to you! Bad! So you have discussed Krauss's foolishness with him? And he didn't listen? Imagine that. GWW

Huh? Is your memory that short? I've given you examples of events that would render evolution (and many other theories) silly and useless and make ID creationism look like a profound insight. Do you recall what your reaction was to those examples? You scoffed at them because they were "miraculous"!

That has nothing to do with the post at hand, but I'll point out that even some of the PT types agreed that "finding a pre-Cambrian human fossil" is not a meaningful falsification of evolution, and if such absurd tests are the only way to falsify evolution, then evolution is not falsifiable.

Wesley R. Elsberry · 29 March 2005

Why should ID be required to supply a universally accepted falsification test?

— David Heddle
Because ID advocates and cheerleaders who are obviously ignorant of what "falsification" means keep claiming that ID is falsifiable. It's not as if somebody is holding a gun to Behe or Dembski's head and telling them that they must make that claim. They bring it on themselves for trying to look like they are taking a Popperian stance when they mean no such thing. If David doesn't want to be dinged for making the same mistake, the solution is simple: don't claim that ID is falsifiable. If David wants to argue that ID has implications for things that are observable or measurable, the argument for that can be made without trying to wrap it in Popper's authority. So far, David has shown a lust for equivocation that I simply can't fathom.

Jim Harrison · 29 March 2005

Relying on simple induction, one might conclude that God arranged things to make life exceedingly rare in the universe. It could even be that this is not the best of all possible worlds, but the emptiest. We're only here at all because God couldn't have prevented us with out allowing more conscious life somewhere else.

Weimar era version of old Greek story mentioned above: "So miserable is human life that it is preferable to die young. Indeed, it is better never to have been born; but scarcely one in a million is that lucky!"

Great White Wonder · 29 March 2005

Oh, the irony.

It's absurd for modern-looking human fossil to be dated to the pre-Cambrian, but not absurd for an invisible omniscent being to create a universe so that creatures on one of the planets can write books about him. Whatever.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

GCT,

Why do I care, given that ID is not science? Is that a real question? Do you only care about science?

Falsification is not unique to science. If I tell you my name is Bill Buckner, that is a non scientific yet falsifiable statement.

It seems odd to me that you and others would argue with most IDers who claim ID is science, beating them to death over the issue, yet when I agree with you, then you claim I am lying about it. Man, talk about taking both sides.

You have avoided the evolution falsification question. Once again: are there any tests that would sway some biologists but not all? You attacked me by saying just because DHID is falsified, doesn't mean ID is falsified, but you haven't demonstrated that evolution does not suffer the same fate.

As for teaching ID in school, I believe the strongest statement I made is that it can be brought up, not necessarily in a science class. There is absolutely nothing wrong about bringing up ID and discussing it, unless you think all students are feeble minded. Students discussing controversial ideas are one of the things students are supposed to do. I never, ever, stated that it should be part of the science curriculum. I always brought it up (cosmological ID) in the grad classes I taught, usually the last lecture of the year. I would tell the students I'd be talking about it, and that it was optional, Typically we had a blast.

Wesley,

Do you have a (non-absurd) universal falsification test for evolution?

Emanuele Oriano · 29 March 2005

Dr. Krauss said:

... that scientists should not be worried about offending religious sensibilities when those sensibilities are based on claims about the universe that are manifestly wrong. Moreover, he said that while there was no connection between science and religion, he claimed there is a natural tension between them because, as physicist and Nobel laureate Steven Weinberg has said, science doesn't make it impossible to believe in God, but it makes it possible to not believe in God. Finally, he argued that programs supporting research in areas such as "fine tuning," with an aim to building a connection between science and religion, are ultimately disingenuous because they are designed to suggest that there is some divine purpose to our existence, which grossly distorts what the science actually implies.

Mr. Heddle, I for one would be grateful if you stopped quote-mining Dr. Krauss about "fine-tuning".

Emanuele Oriano · 29 March 2005

By the way, if anyone is interested in checking my Krauss quote, it can be found here:

http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2004/1214startrek.shtml

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

GWW: Lets see, I say that if the theories of any of a number of prominent cosmologists who are conducting funded peer-reviewed research are verified, then cosmological ID is simultaneously falsified. You say that if you find a pre-Cambrian human fossil, an investigation that, because of its absurdity, no funding agency would support, then evolution is falsified. But my falsification claim is bogus and your claim is legitimate. Emanuele, Thanks for the help. It proves my point so well. Krauss is dead set against anything that smacks of ID. And yet he wrote, in Scientific American

Our current understanding of gravity and quantum mechanics says that empty space should have about 120 orders of magnitude more energy than the amount we measure it to have. That is 1 with 120 zeroes after it! How to reduce the amount it has by such a huge magnitude, without making it precisely zero, is a complete mystery. Among physicists, this is considered the worst fine-tuning problem in physics. When we solve this problem, we're going to have to explain why the number that we measure is 120 orders of magnitude smaller than we would expect it to be. No one has an idea how to do that. And that's why it's the most exciting thing in physics. Because weird makes things exciting.

He likes the fine tuning problem. It interests him. He doesn't put his head in the sand and deny that it exists.

Glen Davidson · 29 March 2005

Your insult does not hide the fact that you have missed the boat completely.

You're obviously too ignorant even to recognize the boat. Deal with what I wrote, instead of bringing in your fallacies and false depictions of what motivates cosmologists. I made a reasoned comment on your lack of knowledge, and you simply repeated your base and cretinous remarks. You are obviously out of your league in any science discussion. This is what we have to deal with constantly with you who would destroy science, the fact that you have almost nothing except fallacies and avoidance in order to make claims for your cherished fantasies.

None of non-ID cosmologists who investigate multiverses (and the like) are doing so because they assume "specialness of life". On the contrary, they are doing so to avoid the conclusion of the "specialness of life."

Just your duplicity showing through once more. I gave you good reasons for considering the multiverse model that had nothing to do with your dim-witted comments and false portrayals of your opponents. I should add one specific case where the "many worlds" hypothesis comes up, which is in quantum interpretation: http://www.quantonics.com/Level_5_QTO_Quantum_Interpretations.html#ManyWorlds The above link gives a comparison of many quantum interpretations, one of which is the parallel world interpretation. It's a way of dealing with quantum reality, not with your and other IDists' fantasies about science and philosophy. And it's not really for you, as you show yourself incapable of dealing with the issues related to "fine-tuning" and resort to fallacies and duplicity in your "replies" instead of answering what has been brought up. But of course you have no interest in issues that call your prejudices into question, so you simply divert the discussion down to the level of your bias and ignorance. The above link is only one example of issues other than Heddle's that could conceivably be dealt with using multiverses. Heddle will never understand the reasons for multiverses as long as he shuts his ears and shouts his misunderstandings.

Avoiding the fine-tuning is a physics issue, to the physicists, or at least that misguided subset that hasn't sought your advice.

You're evidently incapable of thinking on your own. I brought up excellent objections, you bring in your mindless fallacies again and again. I don't have to be given permission to think well, it's only your inability to think that you want to force onto others as you continue your argumentum ad verecundiam fallacy. Thus the vacuousness of ID strikes once more, and you avoid any kind of intelligent discussion. As well you may, since you seem to know nothing beyond pseudoscience.

Hence Krauss' comment (in Scientific American and elsewhere) about the cosmological constant being the "worst fine tuning problem in physics." He is far from motivated by ID or an assumption of life's "specialness;" he categorically denies ID. He is motivated, however, by the appearance of fine-tuning.

Add reading to your list of things to learn. Krauss wasn't discussing "fine-tuning" for life there, he was speaking of the problems of getting down 120 orders of magnitude from predicted energy to what we find in our universe, rather than going down to zero. This could relate to life, conceivably, but it more obviously relates to the problem of getting down to near zero, and not to zero itself. Problems like this show up from time to time in physics. BTW, your mistake was noted in passing previously at PT, by Erik 12345, and you persist in using it. At least in the Sciam interview (I have no idea what he thinks beyond this), Krauss isn't even discussing fine-tuning "for life", but rather of a physics problem. He's an example of the physics issues discussed quite apart from your fantasies about "fine-tuning" for life, but apparently you've answered almost no one well at PT yet, so I don't suppose you're about to begin to be decent or open to learning. Of course the most egregious intellectual sins that you continue to commit relate to your avoidance of dealing with meaningful objections, and your fallacious fallback to authority in order to avoid dealing with matters outside of your ken. The real problem here is that you're incapable of a proper discussion in science or philosophy.

Glen Davidson · 29 March 2005

Your insult does not hide the fact that you have missed the boat completely.

You're obviously too ignorant even to recognize the boat. Deal with what I wrote, instead of bringing in your fallacies and false depictions of what motivates cosmologists. I made a reasoned comment on your lack of knowledge, and you simply repeated your base and cretinous remarks. You are obviously out of your league in any science discussion. This is what we have to deal with constantly with you who would destroy science, the fact that you have almost nothing except fallacies and avoidance in order to make claims for your cherished fantasies.

None of non-ID cosmologists who investigate multiverses (and the like) are doing so because they assume "specialness of life". On the contrary, they are doing so to avoid the conclusion of the "specialness of life."

Just your duplicity showing through once more. I gave you good reasons for considering the multiverse model that had nothing to do with your dim-witted comments and false portrayals of your opponents. I should add one specific case where the "many worlds" hypothesis comes up, which is in quantum interpretation: http://www.quantonics.com/Level_5_QTO_Quantum_Interpretations.html#ManyWorlds The above link gives a comparison of many quantum interpretations, one of which is the parallel world interpretation. It's a way of dealing with quantum reality, not with your and other IDists' fantasies about science and philosophy. And it's not really for you, as you show yourself incapable of dealing with the issues related to "fine-tuning" and resort to fallacies and duplicity in your "replies" instead of answering what has been brought up. But of course you have no interest in issues that call your prejudices into question, so you simply divert the discussion down to the level of your bias and ignorance. The above link is only one example of issues other than Heddle's that could conceivably be dealt with using multiverses. Heddle will never understand the reasons for multiverses as long as he shuts his ears and shouts his misunderstandings.

Avoiding the fine-tuning is a physics issue, to the physicists, or at least that misguided subset that hasn't sought your advice.

You're evidently incapable of thinking on your own. I brought up excellent objections, you bring in your mindless fallacies again and again. I don't have to be given permission to think well, it's only your inability to think that you want to force onto others as you continue your argumentum ad verecundiam fallacy. Thus the vacuousness of ID strikes once more, and you avoid any kind of intelligent discussion. As well you may, since you seem to know nothing beyond pseudoscience.

Hence Krauss' comment (in Scientific American and elsewhere) about the cosmological constant being the "worst fine tuning problem in physics." He is far from motivated by ID or an assumption of life's "specialness;" he categorically denies ID. He is motivated, however, by the appearance of fine-tuning.

Add reading to your list of things to learn. Krauss wasn't discussing "fine-tuning" for life there, he was speaking of the problems of getting down 120 orders of magnitude from predicted energy to what we find in our universe, rather than going down to zero. This could relate to life, conceivably, but it more obviously relates to the problem of getting down to near zero, and not to zero itself. Problems like this show up from time to time in physics. BTW, your mistake was noted in passing previously at PT, by Erik 12345, and you persist in using it. At least in the Sciam interview (I have no idea what he thinks beyond this), Krauss isn't even discussing fine-tuning "for life", but rather of a physics problem. He's an example of the physics issues discussed quite apart from your fantasies about "fine-tuning" for life, but apparently you've answered almost no one well at PT yet, so I don't suppose you're about to begin to be decent or open to learning. Of course the most egregious intellectual sins that you continue to commit relate to your avoidance of dealing with meaningful objections, and your fallacious fallback to authority in order to avoid dealing with matters outside of your ken. The real problem here is that you're incapable of a proper discussion in science or philosophy.

Bad physicists who don't listen to you! Bad!

You're utterly lacking in the capacity for intelligent discussion, aren't you? All you can do is sneer to cover your inability to say anything worthwhile.

So you have discussed Krauss's foolishness with him? And he didn't listen? Imagine that.

Imagine the dim-witted David Heddle not understanding the problem that Krauss was discussing. He can't even keep his fallacies straight, but argues incorrectly from authority. Btw, there are a good many physicists that understand the ex post facto fallacy embodied in the fine-tuning argument. It has even been mentioned in Scientific American. I went beyond the mere note of the ex post facto fallacy, but of course David Heddle only argues using fallacies.

Glen Davidson · 29 March 2005

See, David, there are more fine-tuning problems than your benighted beliefs imply. So when Krauss discusses a fine-tuning problem you immediately leap to the false conclusion that he's discussing your fantasies. Why would a serious physicist be discussing the twaddle you amplify and reproduce?

Emanuele Oriano · 29 March 2005

Mr. Heddle:

As anyone with a shred of intellectual honesty has seen, you are equivocating on what Dr. Krauss means by "fine tuning".

No problem. I hoped against all hope that you might be different from what you appeared to be. You're not; too bad.

Have a nice life.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

Glen Davidson,

You are truly a national treasure, if only physicists would take advantage of all you have to offer! We could avoid so many fruitless and wasteful research programs.

Now, can you point out where I stated that Krauss argued for "fine tuning for life?" I appreciate your catching me in that error and I'd like to include the reference when I retract my statement.

The issue with Erik was a PT classic. Up there with your dropping claims of logical fallacy amidst your insults. If I remember correctly, he is the one who wrote an "unbiased" letter to Krauss asking him a very fair question which I'll paraphrase: "Some IDer here [that'd be me] claims your fine-tuning statement supports ID. Do you agree?" And there was great rejoicing when Krauss responded "no." I asked that someone actually send Krauss a fair question, such as "is there apparent fine tuning in physics?" (which is all I ever claimed he said) but it was not heard amid the glee.

What exactly are your credentials anyway? Do you have a cv on-line?

Emanuele,

Please explain what Krauss means by fine tuning, if he doesn't, in fact, mean fine tuning.

Glen Davidson · 29 March 2005

You are truly a national treasure, if only physicists would take advantage of all you have to offer! We could avoid so many fruitless and wasteful research programs.

And you are a waste of space. Once again avoiding every issue simply to snipe and post dishonest comments.

Now, can you point out where I stated that Krauss argued for "fine tuning for life?"

Not that your reading abilities are likely to allow you to understand how you did indeed state that in context, but here it is for the intelligent and educated:

None of non-ID cosmologists who investigate multiverses (and the like) are doing so because they assume "specialness of life". On the contrary, they are doing so to avoid the conclusion of the "specialness of life." Avoiding the fine-tuning is a physics issue, to the physicists, or at least that misguided subset that hasn't sought your advice. Hence Krauss' comment (in Scientific American and elsewhere) about the cosmological constant being the "worst fine tuning problem in physics."

To anyone with college-reading abilities, it is obvious that you were using "fine-tuning" with reference to the "specialness of life". To you, nothing makes sense, or you'd have made a decent reply in the first place. Btw, the words following your "hence" are a non-sequitur, but that doesn't surprise me.

I appreciate your catching me in that error and I'd like to include the reference when I retract my statement.

No one cares if you retract or not, since you fail constantly to discuss things properly and intelligently. We only expect you to be disingenuous. But if you surprise us now, so much the better.

"Some IDer here [that'd be me] claims your fine-tuning statement supports ID. Do you agree?" And there was great rejoicing when Krauss responded "no." I asked that someone actually send Krauss a fair question, such as "is there apparent fine tuning in physics?" (which is all I ever claimed he said) but it was not heard amid the glee.

So you learned nothing, and fully equivocated once again.

What exactly are your credentials anyway? Do you have a cv on-line?

Asked like true pseudoscientist. You avoid the issues, and ask about credentials. It's the best you can do, but I'm not playing your avoidance game. Let this be just one more point at which you exhibit your complete inability to hold forth in an intelligent discussion. You want to only use your fallacious view of "science" as dependent upon "authority", instead of learning how to deal with actual issues. Of course you'd fit well with the persecutors of Galileo, who demanded that authority decide whatever issue was in question.

Please explain what Krauss means by fine tuning, if he doesn't, in fact, mean fine tuning.

You would fail the verbal GRE exam, as well as any philosophy test. You equivocate about as much as you use fallacies, and then you demand that we sink to your level.

Glen Davidson · 29 March 2005

And I'm not going to respond to David Heddle in this matter any more, since he refuses to even broach the important issues with the proper epistemological stance. It's not a promise, but an intention, and quite likely. There is too little time in my life to waste it on someone who refuses even to learn how to deal with science and philosophy.

I've made some excellent remarks, and they can stand on their own. Heddle's avoidance of the issues only shows his incapacity for dealing with what's been said by most posters here.

GCT · 29 March 2005

GCT, Why do I care, given that ID is not science? Is that a real question? Do you only care about science?

— David Heddle
Yes, it is a real question. Maybe I should rephrase it though. Why do you care/argue for the SCIENTIFIC falsifiability of ID on a SCIENTIFIC blog? ID is not science (even according to you) so the point is moot.

It seems odd to me that you and others would argue with most IDers who claim ID is science, beating them to death over the issue, yet when I agree with you, then you claim I am lying about it. Man, talk about taking both sides.

— David Heddle again
Your duplicitous nature makes it hard to take you for your word. I'm also not sure how we are "taking both sides." The DaveScots and JADs of PT think ID is science and argue for things like falsifiability. You make many of the same arguments. How is that "taking both sides?"

You have avoided the evolution falsification question. Once again: are there any tests that would sway some biologists but not all? You attacked me by saying just because DHID is falsified, doesn't mean ID is falsified, but you haven't demonstrated that evolution does not suffer the same fate.

— DH one more time
Hmmm, perhaps I didn't make myself clear. When a hypothesis is stated in a way that it can be falsified, and it is, then that hypothesis is discarded, and any biologist would do so. To expand, yes, it is complicated when you have a theory that relies on many hypotheses, but I have a problem seeing people abandoning a proven theory unless there were an alternate theory that explained the data better. Is there a point where some people might jump ship while others might not? Yeah, I can see that happening, but the big difference is that evolution is built upon a plethora of falsifiable hypotheses that can be agreed upon and empirically tested. The problem with ID is that it is not built upon a single falsifiable hypothesis that it doesn't pass the same test. Your idea of ID is not the same as mine, so falsifiable to you doesn't mean squat in the larger scheme of things.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

Yes Glen, you wouldn't be avoiding anything, such as pointing out where I made the claims about Krauss that you have attributed to me. Statements you made such as:

So when Krauss discusses a fine-tuning problem you immediately leap to the false conclusion that he's discussing your fantasies.

When, in fact, I have never said anything beyond claiming that Krauss acknowledges fine tuning. No, you wouldn't be avoiding the challenge to put-up or shut-up. Not someone as brilliant as you.

Russell · 29 March 2005

I've lost track of why we're wasting time on whether ID is falsifiable, when Heddle has said from day 1 that ID is not science. The more provocative claim that he made, also from day 1, is that evolutionary theory is no more scientific than ID. Now, I've never understood his problems with the falsifiability of predictions made by evolution: fossils in a particular temporal order, the twin nested hierarchies of DNA sequences and morphologically/physiologically based phylogenies, to name a couple of the more frequently cited examples. Wouldn't that be a more interesting discussion?

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

GCT:

Yes, it is a real question. Maybe I should rephrase it though. Why do you care/argue for the SCIENTIFIC falsifiability of ID on a SCIENTIFIC blog? ID is not science (even according to you) so the point is moot.

First of all, this is not a scientific blog but a poltical blog. As evidence, I list the first ten titles of the current posts on the main page: 1) Project Steve Steve 2) Dover, PA Experts Revealed 3) A Debate Challenge 4) The evolutionary revolutionary 5) Scientific American gives up 6) Top Ten Litmus Tests 7) The 2005 Megacreation Conference 8) Creationism really is behind it all 9) Report #* on Questions to Calvert 10) Florida's Student & Faculty Academic Freedom Bill But that aside, I don't care whether you call it scientific falsification or not, the bottom line is that if certain alternative cosmologies are verified, it will falsify cosmological ID. That may be "moot" to you, but it is not for me.

Is there a point where some people might jump ship while others might not? Yeah, I can see that happening, but the big difference is that evolution is built upon a plethora of falsifiable hypotheses that can be agreed upon and empirically tested.

Then, all else aside, the complaint that certain tests would only falsify ID for some but not all are equally applicable to evolution. Russell:

The more provocative claim that he made, also from day 1, is that evolutionary theory is no more scientific than ID. Now, I've never understood his problems with the falsifiability of predictions made by evolution: fossils in a particular temporal order, the twin nested hierarchies of DNA sequences and morphologically/physiologically based phylogenies, to name a couple of the more frequently cited examples. Wouldn't that be a more interesting discussion?

Yes, that would be an infinitely more interesting discussion.

Michael Rathbun · 29 March 2005

To drift toward some proximity to an aspect of the initial post, even if only as tourists, we read:

From Earl Lee's Kiss My Left Behind, page 1: Captain Ramrod Steel leaned back in his pilot seat and closed his eyes.

I note that a second book in the "Kiss My..." series has been published.

Wesley R. Elsberry · 29 March 2005

Wesley, Do you have a (non-absurd) universal falsification test for evolution?

— David Heddle
Does David have a non-absurd question to ask? "Evolution" is a class of phenomena, a matter of "basic statements" in the Popperian framework. Particular mechanisms, or evolutionary mechanism theories in my terminology, are amenable to developing falsifying conditions or weaker forms of empirical test. Popper weighed in on natural selection, asserting its falsifiability in "Natural Selection and the Emergence of Mind" (Dialectica 32(1978):339-355). The history of evolutionary biology shows that evolutionary mechanism theories that have not held up to empirical scrutiny have been discarded (e.g., bathmism, mutationism, orthogenesis, aristogenesis, and many others). Evolutionary biology has demonstrated that it is sensitive to the empirical data, and that it has a testable framework of theoretical mechanisms. That situation does not exist for "intelligent design" conjectures. I'm not sure what David hoped to establish via this question. If he was looking to say that "evolution is not falsifiable", at best he would be dealing in tu quoque, which is no random logical fallacy, but rather a very specific one. Further, I have made no statement like "Evolution is falsiable!" (which would be rather silly to say of a class of phenomena), but ID advocates and cheerleaders do commonly say that "ID is falsifiable!". So there is no parallel there. ID advocates and cheerleaders wish to wrap themselves in the authority of Popper without showing a glimmer of understanding what Popper was about. This conclusion of mine remains solid; David has not done anything to show that there is any alternative conclusion to make. David seems to have a problem with me holding ID advocates and cheerleaders responsible for the statements that they make. Whether or not there are problems in statements made by others is completely irrelevant to the simple fact that ID advocates and cheerleaders demonstrably don't know what they are talking about when they say that "ID is falsifiable!"

GCT · 29 March 2005

David Heddle, you just don't get it. ID has NO falsifiable hypotheses based on empirical testing. None. Not one. All of your protestations aside, there is not one. You claim that empirically detecting another universe would falsify hypothesis A for you, but I don't hold that hypothesis, nor does anyone else on this site most likely. On the other hand, evolution has hypothesis X (and Y, Z, and many others,) that is written in such a way that it can be falsified for all. When that hypothesis is falsified, then we would all say, yes, it has been shown false. It's apples and oranges, and that's why the complaint is valid. When ID has formulated hypotheses that are agreed upon by ID advocates as part of the "theory of ID," and those hypotheses are falsifiable empirically, then maybe we will start to take it seriously.

As for this being a political blog, I don't care if it is, it still deals with a scientific subject. What you are doing is like if I went to a muslim blog and started talking about pork recipes. You show up here, act like ID is science with one side of your mouth, say it isn't out of the other side of your mouth, then denigrate evolution and show a complete lack of understanding of science at the same time. I can't decide if you are better or worse than the DaveScots and JADs here. At least they are honest in coming right out and saying what they think.

steve · 29 March 2005

Evolution reminds me of the story of the guy standing in front of the Mona Lisa. He says to the security guard, "I've been looking at this thing for years. I just don't get it. It's crap. Why do people think this thing is any good?" and the security guard tells him, "Sir, at this point, it's not the Mona Lisa that's at issue here. It's you."

Jim Harrison · 29 March 2005

Popper's only interesting to anti-evolution folks because the falsifiability bit allows them to ignore the warehouses full of positive evidence for evolutionary theory. What's next? Holding up a piece of chalk before a bunch of freshmen and asking, "How do I know for sure this chalk is real?"

386sx · 29 March 2005

So far, David has shown a lust for equivocation that I simply can’t fathom.

Try http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=equivocation for some help on that, Mr. Heddle.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

GCT, not you don't get it. If you detect a parallel universe, cosmological ID is falsified. So what if it is just for me? I cannot speak for anyone else. You have already agreed in #22439 that under some circumstances some might jump the evolution ship before others. It is the same thing. Wesley If had a small database consisting of a list of the logical fallacies, added a 0.85 probability of including a reference to Popper, and a 0.6 probability of mentioning "cheerleaders", with a few lines of Perl I could write an "Elsberian Comment Generator" to save you some time. For what it is worth, I am not looking to prove that evolution is not falsifiable, but only to demonstrate that it is not (apart from a miracle, and even then, who knows?) universally falsifiable. That biologists would have different falsifying thresholds. And thus the complaint that nothing will falsify ID for all IDers is a red herring.

Further, I have made no statement like "Evolution is falsiable!"

Well is it or isn't it? Take a stand for crying out loud. Or, will I be accused of proposing a false dilemma by claiming that evolution is either falsifiable or it isn't?

Russell · 29 March 2005

Hey David: is physics falsifiable? Yes or no?

GCT · 29 March 2005

David Heddle, cosmological ID would survive the detection of a parallel universe, your philosophy would not. That is the difference. Evolution per se is not "universally" falsifiable - as you put it - unless one faslifies every hypothesis that is entailed by evolution. Wesley points out that it is silly to say that a class of phenomena is falsifiable, which is what we are talking about here. Evolution, however, is built upon a platform of falsifiable hypotheses. ID has not a single one. To equivocate them is ludicrous. Furthermore, hypothesis X in evolutionary theory if falsified would be falsified for all, not just for me.

The reason we talk about ID being un-falsifiable is because it rests on no testable hypotheses. Not one. If you don't understand that point, then there's not much hope for you, and I'm not holding my breath.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

Russell,

No. "Physics" is a label given to the study of the physical world, i.e. of energy and matter. A label cannot be falsified.

Is that all evolution is? A label? Synonymous with "biology"?

GCT
I am confused--did you or did you not claim that if enough of the hypotheses were falsified that some would abandon evolution? If you asked them whether in their opinion evolution was falsified, would they reply "no, but I'm bailing out anyway?" Or maybe they'd reply, "I'm not sure, I'll have to check with Popper?"

neo-anti-luddite · 29 March 2005

Actually, Russell, a better analogy would be:

"Hey David: is gravity falsifiable?"

Russell · 29 March 2005

Is that all evolution is? A label? Synonymous with "biology"?

Physics is a big chunk of science. It comprises a number of theories and hypotheses. These can be subdivided into subdisciplines, e.g. nuclear physics, which can, in turn, be subdivided... Biology is a big chunk of science. A big part of that, the biggest part I daresay, would be evolutionary theory. It comprises a lot of separate but related theories and hypotheses, notably common descent of earth's biota, and the mechanisms of genetic change. So, no. You can't "falsify" evolution any more than you can falsify physics. You could falsify, say, common descent, or natural selection as a mechanism of change, or the randomness of mutation.... or any of the individual predictions that are made. Why is this different from ID, you ask? Because ID doesn't make any predictions.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

neo-anti-luddite:
"gravity" is not falsifiable, but any particular theory of gravity is.

Russell:
regarding evolution, fair enough. Your answer that evolution is not falsifiable seems reasonable to me.

However, cosmological ID does make this falsifiable prediction:

This is a unique, fine-tuned universe.

That is much stronger than an Anthropic statement that the universe has to have the characteristics necessary for supporting its observers.

neo-anti-luddite · 29 March 2005

David Heddle,

I have a serious question for you (no sarcasm here), because I'm not particularly up on cosmology, and I'm curious what your answer to my no-doubt simplistic question is (and again, there is no sarcasm intended in the preceding sentence):

My undrestanding of the "fine-tuning" argument is that there is a very narrow range of values for certain cosmological constants that make the universe amenable to the development of life. My question is, since any two numbers have an infinite number of numbers in between them, how can the tuning be described as "fine"?

I've never understood this argument, but, as you yourself have pointed out, there are prominent physicists who speak in such terms, so I'm obviously missing something. I just have absolutely no idea what it is. I would appreciate any assistance you can provide; thanks for the consideration.

DavidF · 29 March 2005

David Heddle wrote:

However, cosmological ID does make this falsifiable prediction: This is a unique, fine-tuned universe.

I don't see how this qualifies as a prediction except in the generic sense that I might say, as a pure guess; "I predict that it will rain on Saturday." I grant that the apparent fine-tuning of the universe is interesting. Further, the factors that seem to make the Earth somewhat special deserve attention. However, what if 7 parallel universes were discovered, each of which seemed to be "fine-tuned" (differently) to support the particular kinds of life (or structures) within them? For example, assume that the nucleon to electron mass ratio were close to unity in a different universe; then the Born-Oppenheimer approximation would break down and molecules as we know them would not exist. In this case the line between atoms and molecules would be blurred but perhaps some sort of life could novertheless exist. If it did, then ID-ers would surely not throw out the notion of a designer, would they? They would revise their ideas and say, "look even more evidence for a designer." After, all, who are we to tie the hand of God ? So I'd say that what you call a prediction is, in fact, a speculation made possible only by a lack of data. It's a bit like saying that once the Earth was shown not to be the center of the Universe then the idea of God had, as a consequence, to be abandoned. Certainly they are puzzling if we proceed from the viewpoint that we are not special. But puzzles are usually resolved through science and not to a resort to religion which has pretty much been wrong on all of the big questions to date. In a nutshell I'd argue that "fine-tuning" and the idea of a "privileged Earth" are both worthy of consideration but in no way do they point to a supernatural entity. Sure, they are consistent with a Designer but so is pretty much everything physical if enough rationalizations are made.

Russell · 29 March 2005

regarding evolution, fair enough. Your answer that evolution is not falsifiable seems reasonable to me.

Be aware, however, that when individual creationists raise the challenge, they're usually implicitly equating "evolution" with "common descent", or sometimes with "natural selection", or sometimes abiogenesis, Big Bang, "Scientism", one-world government, or who knows what else. Point is: you gotta get specific before you attempt to answer the question.

However, cosmological ID does make this falsifiable prediction: This is a unique, fine-tuned universe.

Now, I can go to all kinds of textbooks and scientific literature to find the specific predictions, and the tests of those predictions, made under the general rubric "evolution". Where can I find this prediction of "cosmological ID"? I usually think of the Discovery Institute as my one-stop shopping destination for ID claims. Is it discussed there? (Not, of course, that it matters much because we all agree that ID is not science. I'm just wondering if this is really (a) a general prediction of the "ID community" or (b) the individual prediction of one guy who identifies himself as an ID believer.)

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

neo-anti-luddite

Suppose I told you that I am going to use an infinite precision random number generator that generated random numbers between 0 and 1. Then suppose I told you that you will die unless, on the first try, I generate a number between 3.00000040 and 3.00000042. I don't think you would take much comfort in the fact that there are an infinite number of numbers between 3.00000040 and 3.00000042.

Furthermore, I think you would be pleasantly surprised if I generated 3.0000004095356.

I don't mean this as any example of any actual fine tuning, or of probability distributions, or anything of the sort, but only to point out the error with the "infinite number of numbers" argument.

DavidF:

You would have a point if it were not the case that there was ongoing research aiming to demonstrate that (a) this universe is not unique and/or (b) this universe is not fine-tuned. That elevates the ID prediction from the metaphysical to the real.

But don't make the common mistake of saying this has anything to do with falsifying God. If there are multiple universes and/or this universe is not fine tuned, I have to give up ID, but not God. I agree with what everyone likes to say here: a deity could create the universe with no fine tuning. Or he could create any number of universes with different chemistry and physics. But there would then be no legitimate way to argue design against the claim, which would then be, by Occam's razor the sensible view, that of course of all universes we are in the one that appears fine tuned because otherwise we wouldn't be here duscussing it.

Russell:

I have no idea where you can find that prediction. Maybe on Hugh Ross's site? I am not "in" the ID community, and if I were it wouldn't be the DI community as it focuses a great deal on evolution. Surely if you ask biologists what might falsify certain evolution hypotheses, such as common descent, they might think about it and say, "I claim this would.." without referring to a textbook or the literature.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

oops, change that random number generator in the previous post to be between 0.0 and 10.0 or neo-anti-luddite would be in really big trouble!

neo-anti-luddite · 29 March 2005

David Heddle,

Okay, I think I get what you're saying. It's a matter of a subset within a larger range, rather than simply a range that could be taken out to an infinite number of places. Thanks. (And thanks for correcting that random number generator; I had visions of "heads-I-win-tails-you-lose.")

neo-anti-luddite · 29 March 2005

David Heddle,

Okay, I think I get it. It's a matter of a subset of a larger range, rather than simply a range that could be taken out to an infinite number of places. Thanks. (And thanks for fixing that random number generator; I had visions of "heads-I-win-tails-you-lose.")

neo-anti-luddite · 29 March 2005

Aaaaaigh! Double post!

Great White Wonder · 29 March 2005

Heddle (on repeat once again)

You say that if you find a pre-Cambrian human fossil, an investigation that, because of its absurdity, no funding agency would support, then evolution is falsified.

Actually David I never said that. You did. My evidence was much more interesting. It involved mysterious beings descending to earth and demonstrating that they could design and create life forms at will, and demonstrating that they knew vastly more about biology than humans. But your response was the same: you scoffed and said that such "miraculous" evidence was not allowed for disproving evolution. But that's exactly what you ID peddlers claim happened! Truly pathetic. Unfortunately for you, David, because evolution is an obvious fact, it will take something "miraculous" to convince scientists that life on earth didn't evolve. Proving that life on earth didn't evolve is like trying to prove that humans didn't build the pyramids. You should focus your efforts on the latter feat, David. I think UFO and alien abductee cranks are generally smarter than creationist cranks. You could learn something from the Roswell weirdos and then come back here and try your hand again at convincing us that your high school epiphany with respect to evolution was a stroke of genius (rather than a stroke of your heavily favored hand -- we know how to identify you creationist types!).

DavidF · 29 March 2005

DavidH, Thanks for the response.

You would have a point if it were not the case that there was ongoing research aiming to demonstrate that (a) this universe is not unique and/or (b) this universe is not fine-tuned. That elevates the ID prediction from the metaphysical to the real.

Two points here: (i) I don't see what possible relevance the research going on in cosmology has to do with a prediction of ID. Your logic is perplexing. A prediction either exists or it doesn't and its existence as a prediction has nothing to do with efforts to prove or disprove it. My guess that Neptune is orbited by bite-sized pink tootise rolls does not get elevated into a "prediction" by the launching of a probe to measure the size and nature of particles orbiting Neptune. (ii) I don't see any basis within ID for it ruling out multiple universes each tuned differently and holding different kinds of life. The only basis for this "prediction" is a theological bias that we are special. So it isn't a prediction but an article of theology or of faith. I've noted your related points made later and comment further below. After all, why should what you say re: the Universe not hold also with respect to other planets/moons etc? If life were to be discovered on Titan then would ID be disproved (no transparent atmosphere, no moon, no circular orbit around the Sun etc.)?

But don't make the common mistake of saying this has anything to do with falsifying God. If there are multiple universes and/or this universe is not fine tuned, I have to give up ID, but not God.

Well, I didn't really make that mistake - I gave an analogy. But let's restate what I said; since the Earth was shown not to be the center of the Universe did this force people to give up on the idea of a Creator (i.e., a Designer)? I really think it's a distinction without a difference to separate ID from God. The whole point of ID is to infer God and to give up on ID and yet retain a belief in God is to have one's cake an eat it too. As I argue below, the better thing to do is to believe in God and abandon ID. Are you saying that if multiple universes were found then God did not create them? In that case why should he have created ours but not the others? What is God in that case but a non-entity? Surely the point of God is that he Created. Are you saying God could not make multiple universes each fine-tuned to whatever life (or whatever) he wanted to put in them?

I agree with what everyone likes to say here: a deity could create the universe with no fine tuning.

Only a God that is an idiot would intentionally create a universe and put life in it for which the Universe was unsuited. If God exists then I think there is a good argument that he wouldn't break his own laws. Since, in fact, much of the universe is actually unsuited to life (as we know it) then how well is even our universe fine-tuned? Various arguments pro and con could be made here I suppose.

Or he could create any number of universes with different chemistry and physics. But there would then be no legitimate way to argue design against the claim, which would then be, by Occam's razor the sensible view, that of course of all universes we are in the one that appears fine tuned because otherwise we wouldn't be here duscussing it.

But this is precisely why the deduction of a designer from our putative fine-tuned universe is incorrect. If we deduce a designer - and I assume it is God - then we simulataneously are making the deduction that that Designer is limited in His ability. He cannot have made alternative Universes. I assume that God wants us to believe He exists and so we reach a paradox. Only a limited sort of Designer can be deduced by ID which conflicts with the usual definition of God. Also, any failure to find other Universes doesn't mean that they don't exist. You can't prove a negative and so ID cannot be established by the failure to find other Universes - maybe they just can't be detected. Put another way, why not try to detect God directly? If we can't does that disprove His existence? Along these lines, why, since the Bible stresses that we should believe in God based on faith, do people constantly seek such materialistic proofs of God's existence? The Catholic church got into trouble by incorrectly making predictions based on bad theology. The Bible, read one way, practically assures us that such exercies will come to naught. If one could prove a Designer then of what use is faith, expecially since, almost by definition, we would have proved that the Designer is of limited scope?

Russell · 29 March 2005

I have no idea where you can find that prediction. Maybe on Hugh Ross's site? I am not "in" the ID community, and if I were it wouldn't be the DI community as it focuses a great deal on evolution. Surely if you ask biologists what might falsify certain evolution hypotheses, such as common descent, they might think about it and say, "I claim this would.." without referring to a textbook or the literature.

Well, here's my point. The folks who are trying to wedge ID into public school science curricula are saying that ID should be presented as an "alternate theory" to evolution. You say you're not responsible for that, because you've never claimed that ID was science. You have, however, claimed - and correct me if I'm mischaracterizing you - that evolution has no more right to scientific respectability than ID, and/or that they're both equally religious. Which pretty much amounts to supporting either (a) inclusion of ID in the curriculum, or (b) removing "evolution" - or whatever subset of it you deem unscientific. In other words, you've said they're comparable in this important sense. But if I can find whole shelves in the library full of evolutionary predictions and tests thereof, and you have no idea where I can find a discussion of the one prediction that I've ever seen an IDer make - one that probably would be news to the ID supporters trying to wedge ID into MY child's curriculum - I feel compelled to point out the two "disciplines" are very much NONcomparable in this very important sense.

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 29 March 2005

What exactly are your credentials anyway?

Speaking of credentials, David, what are yours to speak on behalf of God. Why should any of us here take your word for it that your religious opinions are any more divine, infallible, holy or godly than mine, my next door neighbor's, my veterinarian's, or the counter girl's at the local deli. Why are you so reluctant to answer that simple question, David . . . .

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

Davef

My guess that Neptune is orbited by bite-sized pink tootise rolls does not get elevated into a "prediction" by the launching of a probe to measure the size and nature of particles orbiting Neptune.

Fair enough. What I meant is that it will now be tested rather than purely theoretical. The probe, in your example, will verify or falsify the prediction.

If life were to be discovered on Titan then would ID be disproved

Not for me, but I have read others who say that life on a planet without good observational properties would seriously harm their view of ID.

Are you saying that if multiple universes were found then God did not create them?

May it never be. What I am saying is: if the body of evidence that supports ID is lost, then you can no longer claim there is any evidence supporting ID! i.e., ID is falsified. Although ID apart from theology is nonsense to me, theology does not require ID. ID is stating that not only did God design the universe, he left evidence for us to discover his design through science. He was not obligated to do so, and so ID can be abandoned without falsifying God.

Only a God that is an idiot would intentionally create a universe and put life in it for which the Universe was unsuited.

Well, in a certain sense he did, the universe as a whole being a hostile place. But that is not what I meant. What I meant was: I assume that it is possible for God to invent a universe where, for example, there isn't such a tight restriction on the expansion rate in order to get galaxies to form.

then we simulataneously are making the deduction that that Designer is limited in His ability. He cannot have made alternative Universes

Again, I said no such thing. I don't restrict God from making multiple universes or creating the universe six seconds ago complete with my false memories of "level playing field" absurdities. What I say is very limited: in the face of multiple universes I cannot put forth any scientific evidence in support of design. I am left with garden variety faith. ID is falsified, but not God.

Along these lines, why, since the Bible stresses that we should believe in God based on faith, do people constantly seek such materialistic proofs of God's existence?

Just speaking for myself, that would be right from the bible:

For since the creation of the world God's invisible qualities--his eternal power and divine nature--have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse. (Rom. 1:20)

Russell: You need to take that up with someone who is actually trying to wedge ID into schools. I talk about ID in schools on occasion, but only by invitation. Rev, I am a Calvinist, like the apostle Paul. We are correct about all matters theological. I know because I channel St. Augustine.

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 29 March 2005

Continuing our Zen session: my opinions are not holy or divine . . .

And no one need follow them listen to them, or pay any attention at all to them, right? Any more than mine, my next door neighbor's, or the kid who delivers my pizzas, right? See, that didn't hurt, did it . . . . . . . Alas, if only I were convinced that you actually believed it to be so. But you have already demonstrated yourself to be too prideful to do that. I remember reading somewhere that such "pride" is a sin. . . .

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

Rev, you are perhaps the greatest logician on PT. It's close, your competition is tough, including:

PT Theorem 8.2: You are an IDer, and you think ID is science! You fool!
PT Theorem 8.3: You are an IDer, and you don't think ID is science! You liar!

But I like your reasoning better:

Rev: David, will you admit this?
David: Yes Rev, I admit that.
Rev: Good. Except you're lying!

One complaint Rev, you forgot . I've come to expect that, like Selah in the Psalms.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

Hmm, Rev, my bad, what you forgot was "crickets chirping". It got stripped from my post when I put it in angle brackets.

DavidF · 29 March 2005

DavidH,

Although I am an atheist my argument is with ID and not with someone believing in God.

But to get back to the point. I think the major difference is now down to "what qualifies as a prediction?" You seem to be saying - albeit not directly - that any sort of statement that someone makes as a prediction is automatically a prediction which can be falsified. This is true on one level but it isn't helpful since talk is cheap and falsification is expensive. In addition to falsification experiments also, if possible, need potentially be able to provide support for a theory as well. No theory can be established purely by experiments which only "don't falsify" it.

A theory is something which, if one subscribes to its basic elements, leads inescapably to a prediction, or, possibly a small number of mutually exclusive predictions. However, those elements must have some basis in logic or fact or, preferably both. Here are two examples, with one of them not qualifying as a legitimate prediction;

(i) If I integrate Newton's equations for the small moons of the giant planets backwards into the past I find that there is some good probability that moons have collided with each other. This suggests that moons will occur in clusters with similar orbital elements. This is, in fact, observed. But it isn't a specific prediction since the model is consistent with already known facts. What does the model predict? It predicts that the surface color and composition of moons in these observed sub-clusters will be similar.

(ii) A giant gas-phase octupus gathered up moons in a force field generated by its legs and hurled them at the giant planets. Some of these moons collided with each other. This suggests that moons will occur in clusters with similar orbital elements. This is, in fact, observed. But this isn't a prediction since the model is consistent with already known facts. What does this model predict? It predicts that the surface color and composition of moons in these observed sub-clusters will be similar.

I'd say that the second example is basically a wild guess and any actual observations of moons may or may not be consistent with the guess. Sure, the guess can be ruled out by observations but it cannot be supported by observations whereas (i) can.

To me, this is the essential difficulty with ID - as you say it isn't science - but, science or not, it is incapable of making predictions that go beyond inspired guesses. It makes speculations. Discovering multiple fine-tuned universes cannot falsify ID because such universes are not inconsistent with ID except as an added article of faith. That is, the prediction is not an ineluctable conclusion of the theory of ID (if such existed). It might disprove your own particular belief in ID but theories cannot be so subjective that their validity depends on the observer.

I agree that multiple universes from an Occam's razor point of view would make ID harder to justify but Occam's razor is only useful in choosing between competitive ideas that have some basis in fact. It really cannot be used to distinguish between guesses. After all, if it could, then why not pick one's religion based on which is the most economical? That is, apply Occam's razor to all religions and use it as a criterion of which is "The Truth." I can see a decent cult coming out of that.

Now, I know you say ID isn't science but, equally, it isn't theology since theology doesn't make predictions. I'm not sure what ID is in your book, but it looks more like a personal hope that God left a biscuit trail for us to follow. But the Bible pretty much tells us that He didn't - Jesus said explicitly that no sign would be sent.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

DaveF I addition to not claiming ID was science, I also didn't claim it was a theory. What I have stated on here in the past is that it is a philosophy. ID cannot be verified, short of a miracle of the sort that GWW demands for falsifying evolution. You may use the term "speculation" or "inspired guess" for what I called a prediction, I don't care. But the bottom line remains: 1) I believe in ID because at the moment I believe our universe is unique and fine tuned and those two things together can only be explained by design (or amazing luck). 2) If you demonstrate otherwise (and people are working on it), I will no longer believe in ID. I don't care how many epistomologists claim that this is not falsification. But I set myself up to be (possibly) refuted by science. If it quacks like a duck... The passage to which you refer:

11The Pharisees came and began to question Jesus. To test him, they asked him for a sign from heaven. 12He sighed deeply and said, "Why does this generation ask for a miraculous sign? I tell you the truth, no sign will be given to it." 13Then he left them, got back into the boat and crossed to the other side. (Mark 8:11-13)

refers to pharisees asking for an instant miracle to prove his divinity. It has nothing to do with whether or not God is evident in his own creation. That is addressed in Rom. 1:20. Rev: before you ask, I know this because I am a Calvinist and we are correct on all things theological. {harps strumming}

Wayne Francis · 29 March 2005

Comment # 22273

Comment #22273 Posted by David Heddle on March 28, 2005 05:04 PM GWW, Why is it a strange question? Is transparency of the atmosphere in the region of the star's peak intensity required, in your view, for complex life? It's a fair question, I think.

— David Heddle
I won't answer for her, GWW, but I'll answer this question. No, transparency of the atmosphere in the region of the star's peak intensity is not required, in my view (or in anyone with any knowledge of marine biology), for complex life. Complex life lives just fine in places where there is no sunlight and the entire biosystem is driven not but sun light by geothermal and chemical activity.

DavidF · 29 March 2005

DavidH, The difficulty is in claiming it isn't a theory yet talking as though it were one which can be falsified. It seems that what you actually mean is that ID is a personal belief and that some scientific discovery or other could shake you out of it. Just like the discovery of life on Titan would dissuade other ID-ers (or so they say). Your statement;

1) I believe in ID because at the moment I believe our universe is unique and fine tuned and those two things together can only be explained by design (or amazing luck).

is remarkably like believing in a creator because the Earth seems to be at the center of the universe. That too "could only be explained by design or amazing luck." Or so the Church thought. But your next statement puzzles me:

2) If you demonstrate otherwise (and people are working on it), I will no longer believe in ID.

Do you mean that you will no longer believe that an Intelligent Designer made the world or that you will no longer believe that we can deduce a designer from observations? If the former, then how could you retain a belief in God who wasn't a creator? If the latter, then how can this be reconciled with your own interpretation of Romans 1:20? I submit that Rom. 1:20 ,which reads;

8The wrath of God is being revealed from heaven against all the godlessness and wickedness of men who suppress the truth by their wickedness, 19since what may be known about God is plain to them, because God has made it plain to them. 20For since the creation of the world God's invisible qualities--his eternal power and divine nature--have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that men are without excuse.

has nothing to do with ID. Note that what "may be known" about God had already been made plain even back then. It's not about cosmology theories but - using the words of Romans - about making a plain and straightforward assesssment based on observable "Creation." Why should special insight only be available to those with the ability to study cosmology? Did not God hide the truth from the wise and intellectuals? It really makes no sense to use Rom. 1:20 to justify such exotic philosophies as ID since, if nothing else, Christianity is for everyone and particularly those not schooled in the things of this world. I'll see your Rom. 1:20 and raise you a Col. 2:8 :-) Also, Jesus was arguing against a particular mindset - proof was being demanded by the Pharisees rather than faith. The principle surely still holds; ID-ers really are asking for a sort of miracle to prove that God exists which is, aside from the details, more or less what the Pharisees were asking Jesus - to prove by action that he was Divine. In the same spirit as the yet-to-come Romans 1:20 he was saying that it should have been plain to them and no further sign would be given.

Wayne Francis · 29 March 2005

Comment # 22288

Comment #22288 Posted by David Heddle on March 28, 2005 05:59 PM Emanuelle, I am "marveling" at the coincidence that our atmosphere is transparent in the part of the spectrum where the sun's intensity peaks.

— David Heddle
I understand what you are saying David....but isn't our atmosphere transparent to most of the spectrum? How much of the spectrum does our atmosphere actually filter out? If our atmosphere is transparent to 75% of the spectrum of the sun isn't it just logical that it is transparent to the part of the spectrum that has the peak?

DavidF · 29 March 2005

Wayne,

DavidH is correct - the atmosphere is fairly opaque outside the vis and near-vis parts of the spectrum apart from a window in the microwave region.

http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/introduction/emsurface.html

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 29 March 2005

1) I believe in ID because at the moment I believe our universe is unique and fine tuned and those two things together can only be explained by design (or amazing luck).

That's nice. And the rest of the world should give a flying fig what you believe because . . . . .?

Wayne Francis · 29 March 2005

Comment # 22410

Comment #22410 Posted by GCT on March 29, 2005 11:11 AM ... I believe I remember you arguing that ID should be taught in high school science classes ...

— GCT
In the interest of being accurate I don't believe David Heddle has ever said this. I read/listen to every post, minus JAD's DS's and DK's, and don't ever remember him saying this. Many of us get that impression because of biases on both sides but I honestly don't remember him saying this and I did, a little while back, review all David Heddle's post to get an understanding of what his position is. He does give talks about cosmology and this apparent fine tuning but this is not the same. He may have said it on another forum/blog tho. I do remember, in the last 2 weeks, that someone caught him out in a contradiction where he was saying one thing here but another on the other blog/forum.

Wayne Francis · 29 March 2005

Comment # 22423

Comment #22423 Posted by David Heddle on March 29, 2005 12:01 PM ...He likes the fine tuning problem. It interests him. He doesn't put his head in the sand and deny that it exists.

— David Heddle
Yes, we don't disagree with you there. But you extrapolate from that statement that there has to be some designer that did it. When I listen to him in lectures and conferences I know he jokes about ID, religion, etc. But the fact that he says,

When we solve this problem, we're going to have to explain why the number that we measure is 120 orders of magnitude smaller than we would expect it to be. No one has an idea how to do that. And that's why it's the most exciting thing in physics. Because weird makes things exciting.

he is simply saying "We don't know why this constant is the way it is. We really need to find out why it isn't what we expect it to be. There must be something we are missing, our model isn't right. You coming up and saying that he means "We don't know why this is this way we have to explain it so we can disprove God" is a HUGE reach.

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

DaveF:

is remarkably like believing in a creator because the Earth seems to be at the center of the universe.

Except the earth isn't at the center of the universe. If "the earth is at the center of the universe" was my version of ID, then not only would it be falsifiable, it would in fact be falsified.

Do you mean that you will no longer believe that an Intelligent Designer made the world or that you will no longer believe that we can deduce a designer from observations?

The latter.

Why should special insight only be available to those with the ability to study cosmology?

Why should God refrain from revealing himself through cosmology, just because not everyone is a cosmologist? Your reference to Col 2:8 would be applicable if I were advocating that we attend the "church of the designer." I don't---I attend a church that proclaims the cross each week. ID is not a replacement for faith in Christ. It just a glimpse of creation. The bible talks about creation as "evidence" in many places other than Rom 1:20. It talks about the birds, flowers (how their beauty exceeds that of Solomon's finest) and when God calls Job in on the carpet, just to name a few places.

ID-ers really are asking for a sort of miracle to prove that God exists

I can't speak for any IDers other than myself, but I keep emphasizing that falsifying ID would not falsify God. Thus I don't need ID to prove God. Rev:My answer to you from now on is: because I am a Calvinist, and we know these things. {harps strumming} Wayne:

in the last 2 weeks, that someone caught him out in a contradiction where he was saying one thing here but another on the other blog/forum

what was my contradiction? (I'm not saying that it's not possibly or even unlikely---I've been blogging and arguing for many years---no doubt I have said some inconsistent things either because I spoke to soon (it happens) or my position has evolved---I just don't remember what my recent contradiction might have been. And did I deny the contradiction?)

You coming up and saying that he [Krauss] means "We don't know why this is this way we have to explain it so we can disprove God"

I think that is stronger than what I said, which is that he wants to explain it to avoid a fine tuning problem. I am certain that he realizes that IDers will use it as fine-tuning fodder until (and if) it is explained, and I suspect that part of his motivation might be to enjoy shutting up IDers who use the cosmological constant argument, but I never said that is his primary goal---I said repeatedly nothing more than he acknowledged the fine tuning and searched for a non-ID explanation.

Wayne Francis · 29 March 2005

Comment # 22440

Comment #22440 Posted by David Heddle on March 29, 2005 01:05 PM . . . When, in fact, I have never said anything beyond claiming that Krauss acknowledges fine tuning. . . .

— David Heddle
But you distort the context of what he means by "fine tuning". Its like Junk DNA. Even its used as a term it is not thought to be completely junk. Just like "fine tuning" is not thought by everyone to be actual "fine tuning" or anything related to it. It's a term that was used to describe that phenomena and the name stuck. Or do you think Sonic Hedgehog refers to the fact that an computer game character controls if you have 1, 2 or 3 eyes?

David Heddle · 29 March 2005

The it's the same question I asked Emanuele, what does Krauss mean when he uses the term fine-tuning? He is not asking, as you seem to suggest, if I read you correctly, why does it have "this value", like why does pi have the value 3.14159...

He states specfically that it is a 120 order of magnitude problem, and the worst fine tuning problem in physics.

I don't see what he means by "fine tuning" other than what I mean by fine tuning. The only difference is where you turn after you acknowledge the fine tuning.

I'll look for you answer tomorrow. It's off to bed for me.

Emanuele Oriano · 29 March 2005

Mr. Heddle:

I've asked Dr. Krauss. I hope that he'll reply, and that he'll authorize me to quote him.

As for me, I have a very strong hunch of what he means: I think he means that our theories and models must be fine tuned in order to accurately reproduce our observations of the universe.

Yes, it is a problem: at present, our theories and models are not "fine tuned" enough to account for those discrepancies. Yes, it is fascinating: where and how are our theories and models wrong or incomplete? No, it has nothing to do with the preconceived idea that the universe itself must be fine tuned.

But as I say, this is only my layman's opinion.

steve · 29 March 2005

Emanuelle, people have pointed this out about Krauss to Heddle several times. It hasn't made a dent. It's not going to. People have pointed out his basic statistical error. Same thing.

When someone wants to believe, no one can stop them.

steve · 29 March 2005

A good article for Panda's Thumb would be lignin. At some point, plants evolved the ability to make lignin, which is assembled in random configurations. The randomness helps prevent bacteria from attacking and eating it with simple enzymes. So in this case, fitness meant adding randomness. Adding genetic information to get randomness. I would love to see IDers try to pretend that fits their idea, and further, that they anticipated it.

Wayne Francis · 29 March 2005

Comment # 22537

Comment #22537 Posted by DavidF on March 29, 2005 07:51 PM Wayne, DavidH is correct - the atmosphere is fairly opaque outside the vis and near-vis parts of the spectrum apart from a window in the microwave region. http://imagine.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/introduction/emsurface.htm . . .

— DavidF
Thanks for the info and link. I wasn't sure so I asked. Comment # 22547

Comment #22547 Posted by David Heddle on March 29, 2005 08:57 PM DaveF: ... Wayne: in the last 2 weeks, that someone caught him out in a contradiction where he was saying one thing here but another on the other blog/forum what was my contradiction? (I'm not saying that it's not possibly or even unlikely---I've been blogging and arguing for many years---no doubt I have said some inconsistent things either because I spoke to soon (it happens) or my position has evolved---I just don't remember what my recent contradiction might have been. And did I deny the contradiction?) ...

— David Heddle
Let me see if I can find the post.... Ah here it is Comment # 21004

Comment #21004 Posted by Air Bear on March 18, 2005 08:59 PM Sorry to jump on the David-Heddle-is-flexible bandwagon, but here goes: ...

— Air Bear
Note David I was just making statements of fact. You, as far as I can see on this blog, have not advocated teaching ID in the biology classroom. I'm not attacking you in this statement just saying that while you haven't said it here there maybe other places you have said it and that if someone wants to believe the statement they you did say it then they should track it down. Also I state that many people, me included, do/have jump on you because of reading between the lines. At what point the reading between the lines becomes justified because your patterns show a trend is up for debate. Comment # 22547

Comment #22547 Posted by David Heddle on March 29, 2005 08:57 PM DaveF: ... You coming up and saying that he [Krauss] means "We don't know why this is this way we have to explain it so we can disprove God" I think that is stronger than what I said, which is that he wants to explain it to avoid a fine tuning problem. I am certain that he realizes that IDers will use it as fine-tuning fodder until (and if) it is explained, and I suspect that part of his motivation might be to enjoy shutting up IDers who use the cosmological constant argument, but I never said that is his primary goal---I said repeatedly nothing more than he acknowledged the fine tuning and searched for a non-ID explanation.

— David Heddle
David, while I agree that he might enjoy proving some people wrong I think that your words distort what he means when he says "fine tuning problem" he uses "fine tuning" as a term that was set out before him. He himself does NOT view it as a "Fine Tuning Problem" but a problem where the number is very different then what our current model would predict. In the end that means our model is wrong or just incomplete. Of coarse he wants find out the answer. That is what science is about. You want to make his motives out to be something completely different because they use the term "fine tuning" So they recognise the "fine tuning" problem but their definition of "fine tuning" is not the same as what you are advertising it to be. Its like saying "Biologists recognise the abiogenesis problem" as support for ID when in actuality they are concerned with "How could life start via natural mechanisms" They are not out to disprove god, science as a whole, but just provide an explanation for what we observe.

David Heddle · 30 March 2005

Wayne, There is no contradiction in the post you linked. At least not one that I can see. I have said many times---on here---that Behe does a much better job at explaining irreducible complexity than the "this coulda happened and then this coulda happened" explanations like the one posted on evolution blog a while back. As for the tests of biological ID, I pointed out that there are tests. Airbear said he never saw a "proper-IDer" make the claim that I made---if perhaps I knew what a "proper IDer" was I'd answer that complaint. And for the biblical account, regardless of Airbear's comment, I stand by the claim that fossil record does not dispute the chronological ordering found in Genesis. As for my statement:

When science and the bible disagree, the bible is always right. When science and Christians disagree, Christians are sometimes wrong.

I always use that when I am speaking to a Christian group, to announce simultaneously that I affirm biblical inerrancy while at the same time tell them that it doesn't mean Christians are automatically on the correct side of scientific debates.

the number is very different then what our current model would predict.

This is not right. It is not that our model predicts "12" but the answer is "6235". That would be a different type of problem that would be characterized as "a serious error." This problem is characterized by Krauss as fine tuning because it is qualitatively different than "a wrong answer". Let me try a simple explanation: 1) We now believe there is a small positive cosmological constant because (a) inflation (an exponential growth of the early universe just after the big bang) and (b) the expansion of the universe which is, astonishingly, accelerating. 2) Since inflation, the energy density of the universe should be constant. 3) The universe itself has expanded by 120 orders of magnitude. 4) That means the cosmological constant, which is small but cannot be exactly zero (in the current model) was fine tuned to be 120 orders of magnitude smaller (but not zero) than the small number we see today. And had it been slightly different, there would be no stars or galaxies. steve

People have pointed out his basic statistical error

There is no statistical argument being made at all. Try to be a bit smarter in your criticisms. Emanuele If Krauss answers, please post his answer and your question. If you haven't asked a loaded question that talks about ID, and he says fine tuning is not what I say he means when he says it, I'll apologize.

GCT · 30 March 2005

I am confused---did you or did you not claim that if enough of the hypotheses were falsified that some would abandon evolution? If you asked them whether in their opinion evolution was falsified, would they reply "no, but I'm bailing out anyway?" Or maybe they'd reply, "I'm not sure, I'll have to check with Popper?"

— David Heddle
The key difference here between evolution and ID is that the hypotheses would have to be falsified, whereas ID has no hypotheses. I've said that numerous times and you still don't get it. Too bad. I also said that people would bail from evolution if there were a better model that fit the data, but that there is no competing model at this time. That would not necessarily mean that evolution is "falsified." It might just not work in specific areas, whereas the new model would. It's like Newtonian mechanics vs. quantum mechanics. Do we say that Newtonian mechanics has been falsified? Also David, you keep claiming that ID is not science, yet you say things like this...

May it never be. What I am saying is: if the body of evidence that supports ID is lost, then you can no longer claim there is any evidence supporting ID! i.e., ID is falsified. Although ID apart from theology is nonsense to me, theology does not require ID. ID is stating that not only did God design the universe, he left evidence for us to discover his design through science.

— David Heddle
What body of evidence would that be exactly? Also, if we can "discover his design through science" does that not make ID at least partly science? You also said this...

What I say is very limited: in the face of multiple universes I cannot put forth any scientific evidence in support of design.

Scientific evidence for a non-science? Care to explain? Also, I apologize that I claimed you advocated teaching ID in schools, since it seems that I was in error.

Emanuele Oriano · 30 March 2005

Mr. Heddle:

My question to Dr. Krauss was more or less "You wrote this and that on SciAm. Can you please clarify what you meant by fine tuning?"

If/when he answers, and if he tells me he has no objection to my publishing his reply, I won't fail to do so.

GCT · 30 March 2005

Quote mining really is fun... From the Panda's Thumb archive entry "Best Op-Ed yet: 'The E-Word'"

I have no problem with teaching evolution in school and am not an advocate of teaching ID (although I always had an optional lecture on cosmological ID when I was a prof.) [...] It seems to me that if I taught evolution I would want to tackle the predictions of ID head-on... [...] I guess I am trying to say that you do a disservice to your own cause and to education in general if you demonize your opponent (even as they demonize you.) To me, the best way to respond would be to answer their criticisms about things like irreducible complexity, convergence, insufficient time, the complexity of the earliest life, reemergence of extinct species, etc., rather than making fun of them and then teaching the same-old same-old. After all, you'd be teaching the same science you want to teach anyway, and in a manner that would be engaging, and in a manner that would address the critics. [...] Even if there are no predictions (I have referred to at least one paper) why not say, "The IDers say convergence is a problem for us. Let's look at some of the examples they give (the salamander and some fish with the same type of eyes) and discuss how this happened via evolution." You would still be teaching science but would be able to say that, like all good scientists, you are addressing criticisms of the theory. Where is the downside? [...] So okay, forget predictions, since you'll never agree that what they call predictions are in fact predictions. As per my previous post, what's wrong with putting, say, two weeks in the syllabus where you address criticisms of evolution? Think of the political capital, and, as I said, you'd be teaching science. And equipping the students to answer the criticisms. [...] I have not been defending ID, and you'll never win hard-core IDers. What I have been saying is stop wasting time arguing that their premise of miraculous creation and design is faulty. Don't even argue that they are not science. Simply say (in the curriculum) here are the things that ID says are problems for evolution. Let's take a couple weeks to examine them. You might put the political argument to rest, for the sides are fairly evenly drawn, as far as I can tell. Winning over, via accommodation, a few percentage points of popular opinion, while still teaching science, would seem to be a win-win.

— David Heddle
These are the quotes that had me confused David about your advocacy for ID is classrooms. I have to admit that your duplicitous nature makes me continue to have doubts, but for now I will take you at your word that you are not advocating teaching ID in schools.

David Heddle · 30 March 2005

I have to admit that your duplicitous nature makes me continue to have doubts, but for now I will take you at your word that you are not advocating teaching ID in schools.

Rarely have I received such a gracious apology.

GCT · 30 March 2005

No problem David. I'll be more sincere as soon as you are.

DavidF · 30 March 2005

DavidH,

Except the earth isn't at the center of the universe. If "the earth is at the center of the universe" was my version of ID, then not only would it be falsifiable, it would in fact be falsified.

But again this demonstrates why ID - and, I have to say, your private version of it - is silly; it is ridiculous to think that the idea of a Designer could be falsified by such an observation. And if you reply, well, it's just my version of ID and not the notion of a Designer itself, then ID is a pretty useless philosophy. Not only that, as history has shown, one that will rear its head with a new set of "predictions." ID falls into the usual Creationist category of well, you proved me wrong on that but I'm still right and heres new evidence. That's why I raised this analogy - the Earth seemed (back then) to be the center of the universe. So people could get away with it as a temporary argument for a Designer since there was no counter evidence. The same may be true with fine-tuning and I suspect that that will turn out to be the case. Every time we posit that we are special it turns out not to be the case. So it's pretty meaningless to say "I'm not saying the Earth is the center of the Universe" since you are arguing something analogous. The evidence isn't in; when it is then, likely, you will jettison this version of ID and turn to another. This is why ID should not be taught in schools - it's a human philosopy based on speculation and political goals - that's why Col. 3:8 applies. Anytime we force philosopy on others we have erected a church; you personally may not want to do this but the ID movement as a whole does. Your private beliefs don't match with what ID proclaims itself to be - so I don't see how you're entitled to redefine ID to suit yourself. It only confuses the issue.

Your reference to Col 2:8 would be applicable if I were advocating that we attend the "church of the designer." I don't---I attend a church that proclaims the cross each week. ID is not a replacement for faith in Christ. It just a glimpse of creation.

That's certainly fine as your personal belief and, to be honest, I have no problem with you or anyone else believing in "ID" in this sense. But blurring the issue by claiming fairly grandly that "ID is falsifiable" makes it sound like it's a theory when it isn't. The Bible teaches that an Intelligent Designer made the universe but the Bible does not teach ID. There is an important difference since the term ID has come to mean something specific - it means something that claims to be a scientific theory whether you like it or not. ID is a theory by the definition of those who have come up with it. So why not just say, I believe the universe was created and ID is bogus science. Because, if "ID science" is not a theory but a philosophy then it must be bogus science. Given the current political climate such statements as "ID is not a theory for me" are bound to confuse and are not helpful. What you mean in plain English is "I believe that fine-tuning might point to a creator but I might be wrong." Well, at some level I believe that too. Again it seems to be a case of having one's cake and eating it too. Finally, I think it is unchristian to essentially "lord it over" the many thousands of relatively uneducated sincere Christians who swallow this stuff like it was Holy Writ. You may be able to carefully explain your position with caveats and cautions but the average Christian cannot. Nor can the ID movement educate such ones - they don't even try; instead they impart proaganda and elevate themselves as intellects. Thus, to me, the ID movement is tantamount to a cult that is using high sounding words to mislead average people into a taking a position which is actually an example of human philosophy. The opening words of Job 13 apply here. Also, Christians know what happens, millstone-wise, to those who mislead God's "little ones."

Great White Wonder · 30 March 2005

Heddle, from the time machine, says

here are the things that ID says are problems for evolution. Let's take a couple weeks to examine them.

Ha! I had forgotten that classic Heddle howler.

Gary · 30 March 2005

Mister Heddle:
Not to pile on, and in no way do I pretend to any authority or expertise in biology, but only as an interested "lay-lurker" I have to ask what you mean when you say: "I stand by the claim that fossil record does not dispute the chronological ordering found in Genesis."? Do you refer to Genesis 1 when "God made the beast of the earth after his kind, and the cattle after their kind" etc., etc. THEN made man? Or Genesis 2 when "the Lord God formed every beast of the field, and every fowl of the air, and brought them to Adam to see what he would call them."? Since these are obviously contradictory accounts one of them must be contradicted by the fossil record. I'm betting it's Genesis 2.
Thanks, Gary

David Heddle · 30 March 2005

Gary,

The Genesis 2 account does not contradict Genesis 1. It is an expanded, non-chronological look at creation, with more details on the creation of man.

For a chart (PDF) that shows the fossil record overlaying the Genesis 1 Chronology, look here.

Rev: I am sure that the Genesis 2 account is a non-chronological recap because I am a Calvinist and we are correct on all matters theological. {harps strumming}

Andrew · 30 March 2005

Let's not forget my favorite Heddle-ism:

Makes sense to me. I have always had a suspicion that original sin was encoded in our genes. I bet if Augustine was around, he'd agree.

Imagine that David, a single mutation may make someone free of original sin.

PvM recognized (I think) my comment as tongue-in-cheek, as it was intended, to match the whole tone of the thread, which, at least at the start, had an undercurrent of amusement. (Which is not to say I haven't speculated on the possibility, but nowhere do I claim it has any scientific basis.)

I think David Heddle is absolutely the worst troll on here because he does nothing but hurl bogus criticisms before retreating into incomprehensible equivocations, such as asserting that he "doesn't really think ID is science" (but it's better than the alternative!) or "doesn't really advocate teaching ID in schools" (although he does it!) or "doesn't really think Behe is true" (although he doesn't think anyone has proven him false, etc. etc. Shooting at Heddle is worse than aiming at a moving target, because there's no target to aim at. He's advanced no serious propositions, just misguided criticisms and fanciful, Hovindesque contests ("just show me an alternate universe and you win!").

David Heddle · 30 March 2005

Gee Andrew, you seem to have left out a comment on the same thread, from Russell, one of my constant critics:

RE: encoding original sin in DNA. Just for the record, I assumed David was making a joke. I got a chuckle out of it. Thanks David.

You might try finding something substantive to criticize me about, rather than for a joke. Were you one of those who thought the SciAm article on ID was for real?

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 30 March 2005

And no one need follow them listen to them, or pay any attention at all to them, right? Any more than mine, my next door neighbor's, or the kid who delivers my pizzas, right? See, that didn't hurt, did it . . . . . . . Alas, if only I were convinced that you actually believed it to be so. But you have already demonstrated yourself to be too prideful to do that. I remember reading somewhere that such "pride" is a sin . . . .

Rev: David, will you admit this? David: Yes Rev, I admit that. Rev: Good. Except you're lying!

But my dear David, you ARE lying. As you yourself demonstrate, here:

Me: I see no objective way that anyone can claim that ANY interpretation of ANY biblical verse is, or is not, The True and Correct One(c). No one, not me, not you, not anyone, can make the claim that his or her biblical interpretations are any more authoritative than anyone else's. Your interpretations are not infallible, neither are mine, neither are those of the kid who delivers my pizzas. There is simply no basis to claim that any interpretation is any better or more "correct" than any other. Other than one's own say-so.

You: OK, with that dizzying exegesis I'll concede that I lost the bet that Rev agrees with me in this one instance. It was a fool's wager, to be sure.

David, please feel free to explain to me why your exegesis is any more authoritative than mine, or my next door neighbor's, or my car mechanic's, or the kid who delivers my pizzas, or anyone else's. What do we call people who say one thing and then do another . . . ? I think it's a term that is often mentioned in the Bible. It starts with an "h", I think . . . . . Repeat after me one more time, David, with FEELING this time: *ahem* Your religious opinions are just that, your opinions. They are no more holy or divine or infallible or authoritative than anyone else's religious opinions. No one is obligated in any way, shape, or form to follow your religious opinions, to accept them, or even to pay any attention at all to them. Or are you just too pridefully holier-than-everyone-else (literally) for that, David. . . . .

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 30 March 2005

The Genesis 2 account does not contradict Genesis 1. It is an expanded, non-chronological look at creation, with more details on the creation of man.[.quote]

Says you.

Are you giving an author commentary, David? Or do you just think that not only is the Bible inerrant, but your interpretations of it are also inerrant.

Sorry, David, but I don't believe that you are inerrant. I don't even believe that you are particularly holy.

Jim Harrison · 30 March 2005

The real question is how grown men and women find themselves trying to find authoritative messages about biology or physics in old Hebrew books. It's not that I'm hostile to the old books---I'm very fond of 'em myself---but it's kinda nutty to think that they are authoritative as well as venerable.

Apparently, all you accomplish by making a set of texts into infallible scriptures is make them impossible to read. Only the most tortuous exegesis can make orbiter dicta from the 6th Century BCE relevant to our scientific and philosophical concerns.

David Heddle · 30 March 2005

Rev, Rev, Rev, haven't you been listening? My views are correct because I am a Calvinist and we are always correct in all aspects of theology, exegesis, and apologetics. The Apostle Paul was a Calvinist, and so was Augustine. We laid low for a millennium and what happened? Apostasy! Indulgences were being sold. Republicans and Democrats were living together. But along came Luther who was a Calvinist, and Calvin (both a Calvinist and a Frenchman!) and we've been vigilant ever since.

Russell · 30 March 2005

Robyn Blumner has some thoughts that, I think, are relevant to this discussion:

Fundamentalists are steering our nation off course Many of the men and women who have been holding vigils outside Terri Schiavo's hospice are exhibiting the worst of America's homegrown strain of religiously grounded ignorance and hypocrisy. ... The Schiavo protesters tend to be people who believe the Bible is to be taken as literal truth. They apparently have no trouble reconciling the 3.5-billion-year-old fossil record with the creationist theory that the Earth is some 6,000 years old. ... In his book "The End of Faith: Religion, Terror and the Future of Reason," author and neuroscientist Sam Harris writes that it is time we stop tiptoeing around religious zealots - of any faith or denomination - and start challenging their implausible world view. ... In Deuteronomy 13:6-10, it is written that if your brother, son, daughter, wife or friend tries to steer you toward worshiping another God, you "must surely kill him. . And thou shalt stone him with stones, that he die." ... Those people in the middle, who think it is inappropriate to challenge the religious certainty of others, have allowed our country to be hijacked by irrational forces. In poll after poll, a large majority of Americans say they would not want to be kept alive as Terri Schiavo has been. But the elected branches of government are beholden to a vocal fringe of religious extremists...

Forgive the choppiness. I'm trying to give you a taste of the column without too egregiously violating at least the spirit of copyright laws.

"Rev Dr" Lenny Flank · 30 March 2005

Rev, Rev, Rev, haven't you been listening? My views are correct because I am a Calvinist and we are always correct in all aspects of theology, exegesis, and apologetics. The Apostle Paul was a Calvinist, and so was Augustine. We laid low for a millennium and what happened? Apostasy! Indulgences were being sold. Republicans and Democrats were living together. But along came Luther who was a Calvinist, and Calvin (both a Calvinist and a Frenchman!) and we've been vigilant ever since.

Hardy har har. It might be funny, if it weren't true. You DO sincerely think that you are always correct in all aspects of theology, exegesis and apologetics. Just like every OTHER fundie I've ever met. No WONDER everyone thinks fundies are self-righteous arrogant pricks who believe, quite literally, that they are holier than everyone else.

Gary · 31 March 2005

Mister Heddle, you said:
"The Genesis 2 account does not contradict Genesis 1. It is an expanded, non-chronological look at creation, with more details on the creation of man."
On what authority exactly, beside your say-so, or that of your religions teachings do you make this statement? Did the authors of Genesis leave a heretofore undiscovered footnote clarifying this glaring contradiction? I have gone over this book many times in several different translations and no amount of rationalization and apologetic gymnastics can make these two clearly contradictory accounts consonant with each other in a fundamentalist, literal reading of this book.
If you are not claiming a literal interpretation of Genesis should be read as being aligned with the scientific evidence,then fine, we agree. But it does leave me wondering why you would make such a claim in the first place.
Gary