Plantinga, Intelligent Design, and Uninformed Opinions

Posted 16 March 2006 by

One of the better posts mentioned in yesterday's Tangled Bank can be found over at Adventures in Science and Ethics. In that article, Janet provides a clear and detailed explanation of the limits of scientific expertise. As she reminds us, scientists are not near-omniscient beings, endowed with some sort of infailable ability to assess ideas across all the fields of scientific research. Scientists are primarily qualified to comment on matters within their own field. If a scientist is not an expert in an area of science, he or she should give the scientists within the other field the benefit of the doubt, and assume that they have a better understanding of their own area. As Janet points out, scientists (and other adademics) should be responsible enough to know their own limitations. This sense of responsibility seems to be somewhat lacking among some of the more prominant proponents of Intelligent Design. It's shown up in any number of places, including a recent article by well-known philosopher Alvin Plantinga. Read more (at The Questionable Authority):

86 Comments

Future Geek · 17 March 2006

I wonder if Plantinga's religious connections are what motivated him to write this defense of ID?

wamba · 17 March 2006

I wonder if Plantinga's religious connections are what motivated him to write this defense of ID?

How could you suggest such a thing? I'm sure he has nothing but the integrity of science at heart. Would you like to buy a bridge?

k.e. · 17 March 2006

I couldn't believe I was reading this, a lesson on the bleeding obvious:

Scientists are primarily qualified to comment on matters within their own field. If a scientist is not an expert in an area of science, he or she should give the scientists within the other field the benefit of the doubt, and assume that they have a better understanding of their own area. As Janet points out, scientists (and other academics) should be responsible enough to know their own limitations.

Not just SCIENTISTS.

When was the last time a theologian/Creationist was asked his religious opinion on how to perform rocket science.

The other day a Plumber came to my house to unblock a drain, I suggested he try it a

Creationists and IDeologists indulge themselves in mental masturbation the gentile pursuit of wild goose chasing for their own pleasure, amusing to watch but a total waste of time both for the pursuer and the spectator.

All they have to do is provide the evidence, put up or shut up.

Man all I asked for, were sharks with frikken laser beams in their heads

C.J.Colucci · 17 March 2006

Only "gentile[s]" chase wild geese? Oh, I know, it was only tangenital to your main point. Forgive me.

Bryson Brown · 17 March 2006

This is pretty thin stuff-- Plantinga seems entirely devoted to axe-grinding on this issue. He never addresses the dualism point (which the judge got exactly right), ignores (as pointed out above) the contents of the text that was proposed as a resource, and doesn't consider the arguments for methodological naturalism based on the lack of empirical content of 'supernatural' hypotheses (which, as Darwin pointed out a very long time ago, means that appeal to them to 'explain' observations really contributes nothing to science beyond what the observations themselves say...) As for Newton, I'm not very impressed- the notion that God fiddles with things to keep the planets on track never did serve any useful purpose in science (it's as ad hoc as a hypothesis could possibly be). I prefer Galileo's view: If and when we really get the math right, everything we observe (correctly) will fit perfectly... it's a powerful regulative ideal for what a scientific account should be like, and one that keeps us focused on a constructive account of the phenomena rather than an appeal to empirically empty metaphysics.

Mike Z · 17 March 2006

As someone commented at "The Questionable Authority," Plantinga has always been very explicit about his goal of defending (what he calls) a Christian position against scientific discoveries. As a consequence, he necessarily must butcher much of the science and ignore many of the legal issues in order to make himself sound more plausible than he really is.
Here is one article describing his overall approach:
http://newsinfo.nd.edu/content.cfm?topicid=10275

One one famous essay, he describes what "Christian intellectuals should tell the rest of us." Basically, it amounts to anti-science, pro-fundamentalist apologetics of the overly-familiar type.
in: Christian Scholar's Review 21 (1991) pp. 8-32

ivy privy · 17 March 2006

When was the last time a theologian/Creationist was asked his religious opinion on how to perform rocket science.

Was that a jab at Mark Psiaki, rocket scientist and faculty advisor to the IDEA Club at Cornell?

k.e. · 17 March 2006

C.J.
(blush) Thanks for that quick correction 'gentile' is not part of the southern hemisphere vernacular, absolutely remote in fact, my apologies.
genteel
dang

k.e. · 17 March 2006

ivy privy
Yikes!
Someone should take those guys on a seal hunt THEN they would know what relativism is, *rs*h*l*s! Actually scratch that he would probably enjoy it.
Masters of the Universe indeed.
Talk about an appeal to insouciance.
The dilettante creationist, do they have to dress up in cloaks to get in the IDEA Club at Cornell?
.

Glen Davidson · 17 March 2006

Plantinga discussed much more in his paper, none of which caught my attention long enough to do more than scan. But on to the "conflation" of ID with creationism, which Plantinga thinks is so wrong:

The fact is that one runs into many of the exact same problems with YEC as with ID, though I allow that there are differences in detail. This is what leads IDists to attack well-known intermediates like archaeopteryx, for they have no ability to address the demarcation problem.

The YEC doesn't know what a kind is. The "sophisticated" IDist doesn't fall for naive terms like "kind" or "baramin" (with the exception of Sternberg, though he claims to be neither YEC nor IDist (and no, I'm not buying his well-watered Florida land)). But it's exactly the same thing all over again anyhow, since there is absolutely nothing to distinguish between created organelles and "molecular machines", and the evolved structures of life.

They try to use "looks designed" and mathematical probabilities to show that some things must be designed, but it is all negative, and at its very best it does not tell us how to draw a line between created and evolved structures and organisms.

IDists have moved the "kinds" problem up the taxa, but have not in the least addressed the problem. This means that YEC IDists like Jonathan Wells can deny bird evolution all they wish, while someone like Behe probably believes in some kind of evolution via a bird much like (and related to) archaeopteryx. Who is right and who is wrong, according to ID? We'll never know, because the IDists aren't working with any visible difference between "designed" and "evolved", rather they're claiming that certain apparently evolved structures could not have evolved.

The heuristics of science alone argue against such a silly set of notions, while the bigger problem that IDists pose to students is to undermine the practice of proper inference.

Of Pandas and People can be used as an ID text mainly because ID and YEC make essentially the same distinctions without differences--which also stem from the same lame a priori beliefs. No IDist can say that birds must have evolved from dinosaurs, because they have no evidence for any difference between "designed" and "evolved" characteristics.

Which means that although there are differences between ID and YEC, the overlap between the two is considerable. IDists even harbor within their tent those who deny that the earth is old--well, why not? If one is going to deny the practices of science in one area, why not just deny the evidence for an old earth as well? The point is not that Behe believes that the earth is young, the point is that he has so undermined science (or tried to, anyway) that he hardly has any excuse for chastising the idiots who claim that the earth is young.

Pseudoscience is pseudoscience. Naturally there are differences between the pseudosciences. How could there not be differences between people who don't base their "scientific claims" on the evidence? There is nothing new about fissures and differences among the various creationists, as anyone with a modicum of knowledge of the history of the movement knows, yet there is precious little reason for "outsiders" to distinguish between them, and there is especially little reason to distinguish between the movement that welcomes creationists of all stripes "into its tent" from the congregation within its tent. If they're not going to make the distinction, is it incumbent upon us to always note the distinction without a difference?

Glen D
http://tinyurl.com/b8ykm

k.e. · 17 March 2006

Don't worry Glenn they can't even agree what ID is, let alone what the meaning is behind the word made up of the three letters "G", "O", "D".

They have picked what they think is a "soft target" to distract their minds from their nihilistic view of the world compounded by their literal reception of the so called "Truth" from their parents, that does not agree with nature programs on TV.

george · 17 March 2006

" Jones rules, among other things, that:

* ID is just warmed-over creation science
* ID tries to change the very definition of science
* The scientific community has refuted the criticisms of evolution brought by the IDers
* ID involves a kind of dualism and that this dualism is doomed.

But how can one hope to settle these matters just by a judicial declaration?"

Shouldn't ID scientists get to decide if what they are doing is science? And is the only reality that which you can see with your eyes? What of the reality of how you feel?

k.e. · 17 March 2006

George said:
What of the reality of how you feel?

Indeed the so called "oceanic feeling" Freud's friends described to him that he never felt himself (possibly as the result of copious amount of cocaine) and accurately described as the "Super Ego" or what Huxley called the "Mind at Large" for all you George's of the world the vernacular is "circle jerk". Just ask any Ayatollah.

steve s · 17 March 2006

Shouldn't ID scientists get to decide if what they are doing is science?

Shouldn't astrologers get to decide if what they are doing is science?

BC · 17 March 2006

Indeed, Michael Behe, a paradigmatic IDer and the star witness for the defense, has repeatedly said that he accepts evolution. What he and his colleagues reject is not evolution as such. What they reject is unguided evolution. They reject the idea that life in all its various forms has come to be by way of the mechanisms favored by contemporary evolutionary theory --- unguided, unorchestrated and undirected by God or any other intelligent being.

When stated that way, Plantinga makes it sound like Behe is being forced into believing that evolution is unguided. But, that's not quite it. Behe says that evolution is divinely guided AND he's got the evidence to back it up, claiming that his position is scientific. But, if the evidence falls through, he's still allowed to believe in divinely guided evolution - except now his belief becomes a philosophy. Nothing wrong with that, provided that the philosopy isn't called "science". But, of course, they can't get it into schools without calling it science. And isn't that what Kitzmiller was all about -- what can you teach in the schools and what can you teach as "science"?

Second, and connected with the first, he said that ID isn't science because the claims IDers make are not testable --- that is verifiable or falsifiable.

Plantinga spends a lot of time on this point. Unfortunately, he never quotes Judge Jones saying this. Maybe he (Jones) did. I don't know, but if Plantinga is going to spend half the article arguing against this point, he should at least substantiate the claim that Judge Jones actually said it.

according to Newton's own understanding of his theory, the planetary motions had instabilities that God periodically corrected. Shall we say that Newton wasn't doing science when he advanced that theory or that the theory really isn't a scientific theory at all?

The general path of science history to to change things from "god did it" to "we understand the mechanistic forces behind this phenomena". Newton's idea that 'God sometimes intervened' was still more mechanistic than current theories of the day. Now, imagine this situation: a scientist *today* says that the gravitational theories aren't quite right in explaining the motion of the planets, and therefore, we should accept that God sometimes alters things. That would seem rather unscientific to me - even moreso than when Newton proposed the same thing. Why? Because Newton's ideas were moving from the unexplainable to knowledge. If a scientist did that today, he's be moving from knowledge to the unexplainable. It would seem like a step backwards and would shut-down searching for actual, mechanistic explanations. So, YES, claiming that God fiddles with the motion of the planets would be unscientific.

John · 17 March 2006

"Of Pandas and People can be used as an ID text mainly because ID and YEC make essentially the same distinctions without differences---which also stem from the same lame a priori beliefs. No IDist can say that birds must have evolved from dinosaurs, because they have no evidence for any difference between "designed" and "evolved" characteristics."

You're forgetting a devastating point that came up at trial -- early versions of "Pandas" used the word "creationism" throughout the text so the publisher simply cut and pasted "intelligent design" in place of "creationism" in later editions! If the people who wrote and edited "Pandas" felt that "scientific creationism" and "intelligent design" were completely interchangeable terms, who are we to argue?

george · 17 March 2006

ah k.e., my soliloquially challenged freind, freud was as crazy as you appear to be.

And Steve, Astrologers, as misguided as they may be, are doing science.

k.e. · 17 March 2006

George your solicitude (A cause of anxiety or concern) is a solo projection of oedipal onanism,hot air and completely without merit and your appeal concerning astrologers ironically proves it.

Scott · 17 March 2006

George writes: "And Steve, Astrologers, as misguided as they may be, are doing science."

Astrologers are doing only one part of science: they observe the world and seek correlations, "When a head of state met an untimely death recently, I saw Planet A near Star Y". Unfortunately, the Astrologer then concludes that, "Every time Planet A is near Star Y, a head of state will meet an untimely death." More unfortunately, the Astrologer further concludes, "Planet A being near Star Y will *cause* a head of state to meet an untimely death."

1. It is not "science" to confuse correlation with causation. 2. It is not "science" to infer the wrong thing from a logical implication: "If A is true, then Y is true. Y is observed to be true, therefore A must be true" 3. It is not "science" to ignore observations that do not agree with the hypothesis.

Mike Z · 17 March 2006

George -
If astrologers, creationists, IDers, etc. are all doing science, then just about any activity counts as science and the term loses all meaning.

Real science involves much more than just something that kind of looks like some sort of research. More than just some vague notion of "testing" things. More than just making predictions. And certainly much more than just insisting that is science.

steve s · 17 March 2006

George, george, slow down. I've never seen a guy who could hang himself with a foot and a half of rope. We were prepared to dole out plenty more. You are a mighty effecient creationist.

george · 17 March 2006

qualitative judgments about science miss the point. Yes, the ID sciences may not yet be mature enough to stand on their own and challenge existing paradigms, and perhaps they lead to naught, but you are judging them on the quality of output, input and methodology and etc. Is there "great" science, "good" science, "science", "bad" science, "atrocious" science and "the worst" science? Does ID fall into one of those categories or somewhere along the continuum? I think it does. I am reminded of a scene in "Pirates of the Caribbean" where the British guy says "That is the WORST pirate I've ever seen!"

Caledonian · 17 March 2006

but you are judging them on the quality of output, input and methodology and etc.

Of course we're judging them by those standards! Those are the standards that determine if something is science!

Mike Z · 17 March 2006

George--
Again, if we call these things science, then everything counts as science.

But then...if everything counts as science, then ID, etc. all count as empty, fruitless, obstinate, narrow-minded science. So I guess that puts them in the "worst" category.

Anyway, science *at least* involves an effort to figure things out. ID, on the other hand, is an effort to prevent people from figuring things out.
Your efforts to put creationism, astrology, ID, etc. all on an even playing field with good science just cannot be made to work.

Corkscrew · 17 March 2006

And Steve, Astrologers, as misguided as they may be, are doing science.

And you can feel free to carry on believing that if you so wish. Those of us in the reality-based community, however, prefer a less... postmodernist attitude to life.

Corkscrew · 17 March 2006

qualitative judgments about science miss the point. Yes, the ID sciences may not yet be mature enough to stand on their own and challenge existing paradigms, and perhaps they lead to naught, but you are judging them on the quality of output, input and methodology and etc. Is there "great" science, "good" science, "science", "bad" science, "atrocious" science and "the worst" science? Does ID fall into one of those categories or somewhere along the continuum? I think it does. I am reminded of a scene in "Pirates of the Caribbean" where the British guy says "That is the WORST pirate I've ever seen!"

Well, personally I'd say that ID falls onto the continuum of science in roughly the same place that Will Turner's blacksmith boss falls onto the continuum of pirates. Whether you're a good pirate or a bad pirate, there's an implicit assumption that you're attempting to attain some Platonic ideal of piracy. Likewise with science. ID, on the other hand, doesn't even bother to strive towards that ideal.

That's the root of the problem that the scientific community has with ID - they try to borrow science's vaunted credibility without behaving in a scientific fashion. If science and non-science were functionally indistinguishable this wouldn't really be a problem, but as things stand science has proven very effective at helping us analyse the world around us. They're watering down that trademark with their crappy pseudoscience.

Lou FCD · 17 March 2006

Here's some ID "science" for ya: Discussing the recent scientific analysis of the "Double Helix Nebula" (for which the PDF of the paper can be found HERE) Dr. Mark Morris, one of the authors of the paper, apparently drops by Uncommon Descent Into Madness, and comments thus

The nebula we have found with NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope is a remarkable example of something that can be accomodated by the scientific enterprise as readily as we can account for hurricanes. Although there is much to be learned yet about the nebula, what we do know can be well explained in terms of existing and well-supported scientific hypotheses about the Galaxy and its contents. Consequently, I am dismayed that it has been brought up in an ID blog. Logically fitting natural phenomena that display order and/or beauty into the scientific superstructure of self-consistent ideas about the universe about us are what makes science so satisfying, and so meaningful. Not everything is a God-induced miracle. Comment by MRMorris --- March 16, 2006 @ 10:50 pm

Then there's some of the usual Dave bluster, then a comment or two, but Davie just can't bring himself to let this go by without further assininity. Determined not to be upstaged by an actual scientist, Davie chimes in with

I think you're being too accomodating to Doctor Morris who appears to have forgotten his place in the scheme of things. We the taxpayers paid for this research including Morris' time and the instruments he used. We didn't pay for nor ask for his opinion about whether or not God had anything to do with this nebula's formation although he's free to give it in an unofficial capacity on his own time. The data belongs to us as much as does him as we're all taxpayers and if we want to interpret it as a sign of design in the universe that's our business. Comment by DaveScot --- March 17, 2006 @ 10:56 am

Nope, nothing at all to do with religion. "Qualitative judgements about science miss the point." Yeah, uh-huh..ok This thread at Uncommon Stupidity is going to be a classic, I think

J. Biggs · 17 March 2006

I think the term your looking for George is pseudo-science. ID and YEC are definately pseudo-science.

KeithB · 17 March 2006

"And Steve, Astrologers, as misguided as they may be, are doing science."

Actually, they are using engineering. They take formulas developed by someone else, and apply them to the problem at hand.

AD · 17 March 2006

. Yes, the ID sciences may not yet be mature enough to stand on their own and challenge existing paradigms, and perhaps they lead to naught, but you are judging them on the quality of output, input and methodology and etc.

Emphasis added. Not to burst your bubble, but that is precisely how science is judged. "Output", in the form of research, theories, and the like, is the entire point of science. If your output is junk, your science is junk. But, to be fair, perhaps we are wrong: George, can you direct me to any place posting research studies, data sets, and testable hypothesis based on ID?

Steviepinhead · 17 March 2006

I'm humming a tune, I think it's an old Fleetwood Mac song.

In other words, George, I'm not holding my breath for you to get right back to us with answers to AD's questions...

the pro from dover · 17 March 2006

Methinks George fully and deliberately misuses the philosophy of science. It is nice if science can explain things and frequently it does just that but it must do more. It must predict the outcome of tests/observations that follow the scientific method that haven't yet been done. If your hypothesis can't do this then you're no better than Pat Robertson retrospectively predicting other people's illnesses already occurring. It superficially sounds like he's got the inside track, but all he has is a head full of phlogiston.

JohnK · 18 March 2006

Funniest Plantinga line from the article:
...whole theories involving intelligent designers also make verifiable or falsifiable predictions, even if the bare statement that life has been intelligently designed does not.
And since the ID movement, for political/1st Amendment reasons, explicitly denies any conjecture about any property of the IDer (other than "I"&"D") is ever necessary, we wait until hell freezes over. Does Plantinga even follow this charade, or does he just weigh in as moral support when it suits him?

T. Scrivener · 18 March 2006

I disagree with Plantingia on most points, but his critique of verifiability is warranted, positivism is over man. As Susan Haack argues there is far to much emphasis in the judgement on criteria for dividing science from non science, the postivism is a symptom of this. It's also hard to see why statements about the supernatural are unverifiable, statements about ghosts and greek gods refer to the supernatural and can be checked.

A very intresting philosophical problem is that of coming up with a division between the natural and supernatural.

the pro from dover · 18 March 2006

If Mr. Scrivener knows a methodology to demonstrate a supernatural mechanism of action that is amenable to the scientific method than he should at least tell us what it is on his way to Stockholm to pick up the bushelful of Nobel prizes that would await such an experiment or obsevation. This demonstrable mechanism of action of course has to be repeatable, publishable, and peer reviewable. Supernatural explanations as the default position of ignorance however don't count.

'Rev Dr' Lenny Flank · 18 March 2006

I disagree with Plantingia on most points, but his critique of verifiability is warranted, positivism is over man. As Susan Haack argues there is far to much emphasis in the judgement on criteria for dividing science from non science, the postivism is a symptom of this. It's also hard to see why statements about the supernatural are unverifiable, statements about ghosts and greek gods refer to the supernatural and can be checked. A very intresting philosophical problem is that of coming up with a division between the natural and supernatural.

Once again, my standard response to all the ID "science unfairly rules out the supernatural" BS: The scientific method is very simple, and consists of five basic steps. They are: 1. Observe some aspect of the universe 2. Form a hypothesis that potentially explains what you have observed 3. Make testible predictions from that hypothesis 4. Make observations or experiments that can test those predictions 5. Modify your hypothesis until it is in accord with all observations and predictions NOTHING in any of those five steps excludes on principle, a priori, any "supernatural cause". Using this method, one is entirely free to invoke as many non-material pixies, ghosts, goddesses, demons, devils, djinis, and/or the Great Pumpkin, as many times as you like, in any or all of your hypotheses. And science won't (and doesn't) object to that in the slightest. Indeed, scientific experiments have been proposed (and carried out and published) on such "supernatural causes" as the effects of prayer on healing, as well as such "non-materialistic" or "non-natural" causes as ESP, telekinesis, precognition and "remote viewing". So ID's claim that science unfairly rejects supernatural or non-material causes out of hand on principle, is demonstrably quite wrong. However, what science DOES require is that any supernatural or non-material hypothesis, whatever it might be, then be subjected to steps 3, 4 and 5. And HERE is where ID fails miserably. To demonstate this, let's pick a particular example of an ID hypothesis and see how the scientific method can be applied to it: One claim made by many ID creationists explains the genetic similarity between humans and chimps by asserting that God --- uh, I mean, An Unknown Intelligent Designer --- created both but used common features in a common design. Let's take this hypothesis and put it through the scientific method: 1. Observe some aspect of the universe. OK, so we observe that humans and chimps share unique genetic markers, including a broken vitamin C gene and, in humans, a fused chromosome that is identical to two of the chimp chromosomes (with all the appropriate doubled centromeres and telomeres). 2. Invent a tentative description, called a hypothesis, that is consistent with what you have observed. OK, the proposed ID hypothesis is "an intelligent designer used a common design to produce both chimps and humans, and that common design included placing the signs of a fused chromosome and a broken vitamin C gene in both products." 3. Use the hypothesis to make predictions. Well, here is ID supernaturalistic methodology's chance to shine. What predictions can we make from ID's hypothesis? If an Intelligent Designer used a common design to produce both chimps and humans, then we would also expect to see ... ? IDers, please fill in the blank. And, to better help us test ID's hypothesis, it is most useful to point out some negative predictions --- things which, if found, would FALSIFY the hypothesis and demonstrate conclusively that the hypothesis is wrong. So, then --- if we find (fill in the blank here), then the "common design" hypothesis would have to be rejected. 4. Test those predictions by experiments or further observations and modify the hypothesis in the light of your results. 5. Repeat steps 3 and 4 until there are no discrepancies between theory and experiment and/or observation. Well, the IDers seem to be sort of stuck on step 3. Despite all their voluminous writings and arguments, IDers have never yet given ANY testible predictions from their ID hypothesis that can be verified through experiment. Take note here --- contrary to the IDers whining about the "unfair exclusion of supernatural causes", there are in fact NO limits imposed by the scientific method on the nature of their predictions, other than the simple ones indicated by steps 3, 4 and 5 (whatever predictions they make must be testible by experiments or further observations.) They are entirely free to invoke whatever supernatural causes they like, in whatever number they like, so long as they follow along to steps 3,4 and 5 and tell us how we can test these deities or causes using experiment or further observation. Want to tell us that the Good Witch Glenda used her magic non-naturalistic staff to POP these genetic sequences into both chimps and humans? Fine â€"- just tell us what experiment or observation we can perform to test that. Want to tell us that God --- er, I mean The Unknown Intelligent Designer --- didn’t like humans very much and therefore decided to design us with broken vitamin C genes? Hey, works for me â€" just as soon as you tell us what experiment or observation we can perform to test it. Feel entirely and totally free to use all the supernaturalistic causes that you like. Just tell us what experiment or observation we can perform to test your predictions. Let's assume for a moment that the IDers are right and that science is unfairly biased against supernaturalist explanations. Let's therefore hypothetically throw methodological materialism right out the window. Gone. Bye-bye. Everything's fair game now. Ghosts, spirits, demons, devils, cosmic enlightenment, elves, pixies, magic star goats, whatever god-thing you like. Feel free to include and invoke ALL of them. As many as you need. All the IDers have to do now is simply show us all how to apply the scientific method to whatever non-naturalistic science they choose to invoke in order to subject the hypothesis "genetic similarities between chimps and humans are the product of a common design", or indeed ANY other non-material or super-natural ID hypothesis, to the scientific method. And that is where ID "theory" falls flat on its face. It is NOT any presupposition of "philosophical naturalism" on the part of science that stops ID dead in its tracks ---- it is the simple inability of ID "theory" to make any testible predictions. Even if we let them invoke all the non-naturalistic designers they want, intelligent design "theory" STILL can't follow the scientific method. Deep down inside, what the IDers are really moaning and complaining about is NOT that science unfairly rejects their supernaturalistic explanations, but that science demands ID's proposed "supernaturalistic explanations" be tested according to the scientific method, just like every OTHER hypothesis has to be. Not only can ID not test any of its "explanations", but it wants to modify science so it doesn't HAVE to. In effect, the IDers want their supernaturalistic "hypothesis" to have a privileged position â€"- they want their hypothesis to be accepted by science WITHOUT being tested; they want to follow steps one and two of the scientific method, but prefer that we just skip steps 3,4 and 5, and just simply take their religious word for it, on the authority of their own say-so, that their "science" is correct. And that is what their entire argument over "materialism" (or "naturalism" or "atheism" or "sciencism" or "darwinism" or whatever the heck else they want to call it) boils down to. There is no legitimate reason for the ID hypothesis to be privileged and have the special right to be exempted from testing, that other hypotheses do not. I see no reason why their hypotheses, whatever they are, should not be subjected to the very same testing process that everyone ELSE's hypotheses, whatever they are, have to go through. If they cannot put their "hypothesis" through the same scientific method that everyone ELSE has to, then they have no claim to be "science". Period.

Keith Douglas · 18 March 2006

planting, v. To use twentieth-century fertilizer to encourage new shoots from eleventh -century ideas which everyone thought had gone to seed; hence, plantinger, n. one who plantings.

(from the Philosopher's Lexicon.)

T. Scrivener · 18 March 2006

I agree with Lenny. It's fairly simple to test supernatural hypotheses, why not try testing the hypothesis that your backyard has been replaced by a magical kingdom by having a look right now. The claim that science doesn't require supernatural explanations is a posteriori justified. I think you over simplify the scientific method though Lenny.

alvinize, v. To stimulate protracted discussion by making a bizarre claim. "His contention that natural evil is due to Satanic agency alvinized his listeners." Philosophical Lexicon again.

k.e. · 19 March 2006

Speaking of interesting Lexicons
How about The Devils Dictionary.

Philosopy, n. - A route of many roads leading from nowhere to nothing.

Truth, n. An ingenious compound of desirability and appearance. Discovery of truth is the sole purpose of philosophy, which is the most ancient occupation of the human mind and has a fair prospect of existing with increasing activity to the end of time.

PRE-ADAMITE, n. One of an experimental and apparently unsatisfactory race of antedated Creation and lived under conditions not easily conceived. Melsius believed them to have inhabited "the Void" and to have been something intermediate between fishes and birds. Little is known of them beyond the fact that they supplied Cain with a wife and theologians with a controversy.

RELIGION, n. A daughter of Hope and Fear, explaining to Ignorance the nature of the Unknowable.

"What is your religion my son?" inquired the Archbishop of Rheims.

"Pardon, monseigneur," replied Rochebriant; "I am ashamed of it."

"Then why do you not become an atheist?"

"Impossible! I should be ashamed of atheism."

"In that case, monsieur, you should join the Protestants."

steve s · 19 March 2006

PRE-ADAMITE, n. One of an experimental and apparently unsatisfactory race of antedated Creation and lived under conditions not easily conceived. Melsius believed them to have inhabited "the Void" and to have been something intermediate between fishes and birds. Little is known of them beyond the fact that they supplied Cain with a wife and theologians with a controversy.

People will go to great lengths to avoid understanding that Cain's wife was what's known as a continuity error. Happens all the time in fiction.

k.e. · 19 March 2006

Hmm Steve S. indeed, like the priests who wrote Genesis and forgetting to get *god* to create water.
Still I doubt it worried the rock art painters in Australia or South America 50 to 60,000 years ago

Sci/Tech 'First Americans were Australian'.
What are the Earliest Dates for Australian Rock Art? .

But then that would explain this Devils Dictionary entry

BRAHMA, n. He who created the Hindoos, who are preserved by Vishnu and destroyed by Siva --- a rather neater division of labor than is found among the deities of some other nations. The Abracadabranese, for example, are created by Sin, maintained by Theft and destroyed by Folly. The priests of Brahma, like those of Abracadabranese, are holy and learned men who are never naughty.

O Brahma, thou rare old Divinity,
First Person of the Hindoo Trinity,
You sit there so calm and securely,
With feet folded up so demurely ---
You're the First Person Singular, surely.
---Polydore Smith

Henry J · 19 March 2006

Re "People will go to great lengths to avoid understanding that Cain's wife was what's known as a continuity error. Happens all the time in fiction."

ROFL

Henry

Carol Clouser · 19 March 2006

Lenny,

A couple of problems seem to have emerged with your "standard response to all the ID "science unfairly rules out the supernatural" BS."

(1) It appears that judge Jones is under the impression that, by definition, science has precluded supernatural explanations for centuries.

(2) The dictionary definition of science speaks of "a body of knowledge pertaining to" or the "study of" natural phenomena. No mention there of a particular method or set of rules.

(3) Your various rules and steps to qualify as "scientific" do not seem to fit the mold of some past and present experience in science. It is basically a fairy tale for story books written to glorify the work of scientists. Contrarian examples come to mind from topics as diverse as the "ether", the existance of "fields", string theory, and others.

(4) Your steps seem to be more appropriate in terms of what it takes for an idea to become an established principle, theory or law of science, not as a set of requirements merely to be construed as "scientific". The threshold for the latter ought to much less stringent than for the former. It is one thing for a proposal to be scientific, it is another for it to climb the ladder of acceptance from proposal to working hypothesis to widely accepted theory to finally a law.

Sir_Toejam · 19 March 2006

*sigh*

what you know about science, Carol...

to see you pontificate about the proper definition and purview of science, based on a dictionary definition, no less, simply makes me want to puke.

EVERYBODY here is sick of your oft repeated and still just as incorrect arguments.

the only tolerance of you remaining is for a laugh at the silly crap you continue to spew forth.

I personally still haven't figured out why you don't move on to more productive arenas for selling Landa's book.

PvM · 19 March 2006

(1) It appears that judge Jones is under the impression that, by definition, science has precluded supernatural explanations for centuries.

— Carol Clauser
Science has excluded the supernatural because it explain anything and thus nothing. In the past 'science' has claimed that the supernatural was an 'explanation' for many poorly understood concepts.

The court concluded that creation science "is simply not science" because it depends upon "supernatural intervention," which cannot be explained by natural causes, or be proven through empirical investigation, and is therefore neither testable nor falsifiable.

— Judge Jones

(2) The dictionary definition of science speaks of "a body of knowledge pertaining to" or the "study of" natural phenomena. No mention there of a particular method or set of rules.

Ah, the dictionary of science yes that should settle the issue now shouldn't it ;-)

(3) Your various rules and steps to qualify as "scientific" do not seem to fit the mold of some past and present experience in science. It is basically a fairy tale for story books written to glorify the work of scientists. Contrarian examples come to mind from topics as diverse as the "ether", the existance of "fields", string theory, and others.

Nothing really specific here other than to point out that you have not addressed the simple observation that the supernatural fails to provide much of any scientifically relevant understanding, as history has shown.

(4) Your steps seem to be more appropriate in terms of what it takes for an idea to become an established principle, theory or law of science, not as a set of requirements merely to be construed as "scientific". The threshold for the latter ought to much less stringent than for the former. It is one thing for a proposal to be scientific, it is another for it to climb the ladder of acceptance from proposal to working hypothesis to widely accepted theory to finally a law.

The problem really is is that ID is not so much non-scientific rather than unscientific. It is scientifically vacuous.

R. Nichols wrote: Proponents of Intelligent Design theory seek to ground a scientific research program that appeals to teleology within the context of biological explanation. As such, Intelligent Design theory must contain principles to guide researchers. I argue for a disjunction: either Dembski's ID theory lacks content, or it succumbs to the methodological problems associated with creation science-problems that Dembski explicitly attempts to avoid. The only concept of a designer permitted by Dembski's Explanatory Filter is too weak to give the sorts of explanations which we are entitled to expect from those sciences, such as archeology, that use effect-to-cause reasoning. The new spin put upon ID theory-that it is best construed as a 'metascientific hypothesis'-fails for roughly the same reason. R. Nichols, Scientific content, testability, and the vacuity of Intelligent Design theory The American Catholic philosophical quarterly, 2003 , vol. 77 , no 4 , pp. 591 - 611

Patrick Frank wrote: Abstract: The assumption of design of the universe is examined from a scientific perspective. The claims of William Dembski and of Michael Behe are unscientific because they are a-theoretic. The argument from order or from utility are shown to be indeterminate, circular, to rest on psychological as opposed to factual certainty, or to be insupportable as regards humans but possibly not bacteria, respectively. The argument from the special intelligibility of the universe specifically to human science does not survive comparison with the capacities of other organisms. Finally, the argument from the unlikelihood of physical constants is vitiated by modern cosmogonic theory and recrudesces the God-of-the-gaps. Patrick Frank "On the Assumption of Design", Theology and Science, Volume 2, Number 1 / April 2004, pp. 109 - 130.

In other words, the demarcation problem shows that it may be hard to express what is science but that does not mean that it is that hard to recognize what clearly isn't Hope this helps

Mike Z · 19 March 2006

This distinction bears repeating:

1) A very specific supernatural hypothesis such as: "From what we know about supernatural force X, we should expect that it has brought about state of affairs Y."
This can be scientifically tested by checking to see whether Y has occurred.

vs.

2) A catch-all supernatural hypothesis such as: "We have observed Y, and Y has been brought about by completely uncharacterized supernatural force X."
This cannot be scientifically tested because there is no test (even in principle) that can give us evidence either for or against the hypothesis.

'Rev Dr' Lenny Flank · 19 March 2006

(1) It appears that judge Jones is under the impression that, by definition, science has precluded supernatural explanations for centuries.

That, uh, may have something to do with the simple fact that no testible or verifiable supernatural explanation has ever been offered by anyone. Including IDers. If you disagree, please by all means feel entirely free to provide us with such a verifiable supernatural explanation. For anything. Anything at all.

(2) The dictionary definition of science speaks of "a body of knowledge pertaining to" or the "study of" natural phenomena. No mention there of a particular method or set of rules.

Then your dictionary is wrong. (shrug) Ever heard of the "scientific method"? Silly me, of COURSE you haven't. Unless it's in Landa's book somewhere.

(3) Your various rules and steps to qualify as "scientific" do not seem to fit the mold of some past and present experience in science. It is basically a fairy tale for story books written to glorify the work of scientists. Contrarian examples come to mind from topics as diverse as the "ether", the existance of "fields", string theory, and others.

Um, in case you didn't notice, "ether" was rejected through experiment. "Fields" were confirmed through experiment. "String theory" hasn't been accepted as a valid theory yet, because it hasn't been confirmed through experiment.

(4) Your steps seem to be more appropriate in terms of what it takes for an idea to become an established principle, theory or law of science, not as a set of requirements merely to be construed as "scientific". The threshold for the latter ought to much less stringent than for the former. It is one thing for a proposal to be scientific, it is another for it to climb the ladder of acceptance from proposal to working hypothesis to widely accepted theory to finally a law.

Actually, they are the same. In order for a hypothesis to advance, it must be testable. In order for it to be science, it must be testable. Simple, huh. Religious scholars like Landa, of course, don't like that whole "testable" thingie. They prefer that others simply accept their holy pronunciomentos on their own say-so, rather than actually having to demonstrate them with actual testing. That, of course, is why science doesn't pay them the slightest attention. It is also, in case you haven't noticed, why nobody here pays YOU the slightest attention. Sorry if you don't like that. (shrug)

Carol Clouser · 20 March 2006

PvM and Lenny,

There is a time honored tradition in "science" for scientists to engage in "model building" to provide a framework for the understanding of natural phenomena. Many times these models take on a life of their own for decades and even centuries, despite the fact that they have no direct empirical evidence to support them. Which explains why many of them ultimately ran into trouble when new data emerged. Despite these shortcomings, nobody ever thinks of describing these efforts as "not science". These are in fact legitimate scientific endeavors as evidenced by the fact that they are ultimately discarded when the data opposes them.

So Lenny's steps are fine as long as we make it clear that they are required for "establishment" not for "science". Ideas can, have and will continue to linger (or wallow) in steps one or two while they are "science" but have not matured yet to "establishment".

One of the examples I gave above was the ether. There never was a shred of direct evidence for its existence. It was invented to provide an absolute velocity. When it was discovered by Michelson/Morely that the speed of light is the same in all directions, scientists did not discrad the ether right away. Instead, they fought tooth and nail to save it. They (Lorents and others) tried dragging and stretching the ether to make it fit the data. It took some doing (Special Relativity) to finally put this beast away.

Lenny, you are wrong about "fields" having been confirmed. In modern QED they are totally ignored. They were always merely a "model" to provide a framework for EM and other phenomena. They were even given energy and momentum. And yet they were never confirmed and today do not exist. (Despite their continued utility in some areas.)

And are we willing to suggest that should string theory never achieve "establishment" that those currently engaged in it are not doing "science"? Preposterous!

The reason ID is problematic as science, Lenny, is not because it cannot get past step three. It is because scientists do not think it has any standing even in steps one and two. It is the same old God idea they are accustomed to rejecting for centuries, as Judge Jones, your hero, so eloquently summarized.

'Rev Dr' Lenny Flank · 20 March 2006

It is the same old God idea they are accustomed to rejecting for centuries

But my dear Carol, the IDers keep telling us that ID isn't religious and doesn't have a blooming thing to do with God. It could be space aliens, Carol, or time-traveling human bioengineers. Are they just lying to us when they claim that, Carol?

Carol Clouser · 20 March 2006

Lenny,

Before I call people liars I would rather accuse them of milder offenses, such as being disingenuous. All those scenarios are too far-fetched to be taken seriously.

But you seem to have missed the bottom line of my post. Scientist catagorize ID as "not science", not because it doesn't get past your step three, but precisely because it leads to God (in the most likely scenario). And you may expect scientists to continue to do so with any other theory to come up about anything else. This is contrary to your claim and supports the ID proponents claim that science is biased against God.

Why can you not be honest about this and call a spade a spade?

Flint · 20 March 2006

Carol: Let's see if I have this discussion straight. You write:

The reason ID is problematic as science, Lenny, is not because it cannot get past step three. It is because scientists do not think it has any standing even in steps one and two.

Now as I read this, Lenny's steps one and two were:

1. Observe some aspect of the universe. 2. Invent a tentative description, called a hypothesis, that is consistent with what you have observed.

You seem (to me) to be saying that scientists reject magical "explanations" somewhere in those two points, and that's an interesting claim. Certainly magic isn't rejected on step 1; we observe some aspects of the universe. So it must be rejected at step 2; that magic is simply unacceptable as a hypothesis. And so the reason magic stumbles on step 3 (Use the hypothesis to make predictions) is because scientists don't even accept that magical explanations are worth hypothesizing about. Is that what you are trying to say? If so, your notion of science is very different from mine. I agree Lenny has drawn a distinction he implies is much clearer than I think it is. It's not possible to construct an inherently untestable hypothesis in scientific terms. Goddidit is NOT a hypothesis, as I understand it. It's a way to avoid saying "I don't know". From the perspect of a believer, magical explanations lead to the gods. From a scientific perspective, magical explanations are a way of saying "I give up". So perhaps you're correct, and magical explanations can't pass step 2. Instead, we start with step 1, observe something, and step 2 becomes "priase Jeezus" (or substitute the fantasy of your choice). At which point, we've reached a permanent dead stop. No hypothesis, no explanations, no testing, no iteration, no nothing. And while the technique of "make stuff up and then lock your mind down permanently" probably qualifies as a "way of knowing" at some philosophical level of abstraction, it really is not science. By trying to break through this barricade, is it truly accurate to say that science is biased against it? Science is simply a very different approach, and MUST be a different approach if it is every to achieve anything. Some scientists in fact DO seem to fix on some evidence-proof conviction and remain permanently wedded to it while the field passes them by. But 'unbiased' isn't the first term I'd choose to describe such people. Near the core of what science is, is the requirement that one be able to say "oops, on the evidence, it seems I was wrong." Lenny's step 2 does imply this ability; the construction of a hypothesis implies that answers are tentative and rejectable. The Believer's step 2 would (I agree) be very different. There's no need to construct a hypothetical explanation when the 'true' one is already known and no test results could dislodge it anyway. So science is baised against magical explanations the same way a motorist is biased against driving into a tree. And for much the same reasons.

Rilke's Granddaughter · 20 March 2006

Before I call people liars I would rather accuse them of milder offenses, such as being disingenuous. All those scenarios are too far-fetched to be taken seriously.

— Carol
The DI and most of the ID supporters are liars. This can be demonstrated fairly easily. Why not point this fact out?

But you seem to have missed the bottom line of my post. Scientist catagorize ID as "not science", not because it doesn't get past your step three, but precisely because it leads to God (in the most likely scenario).

This was wrong the first time you said, and is going to be wrong the next dozen times you say it. Scientists don't reject ID because it leads to God (otherwise we'd have various theistic scientists jumping all over it), they reject it because it is, at the moment, scientifically vacuous. Simply because you suffer from theistic bias is no reason to attribute it to anyone else.

And you may expect scientists to continue to do so with any other theory to come up about anything else.

Gee, scientists are going to continue to reject any theory to come up with anything? That's even more incoherent than usual for you.

This is contrary to your claim and supports the ID proponents claim that science is biased against God.

Your personal opinion, based on past performance, is valueless. Try again with real data.

Why can you not be honest about this and call a spade a spade?

When it's a club.

steve s · 20 March 2006

This was wrong the first time you said, and is going to be wrong the next dozen times you say it.

Then it will be wrong when she says it's compatible with the bible.

Rilke's Granddaughter · 20 March 2006

There is a time honored tradition in "science" for scientists to engage in "model building" to provide a framework for the understanding of natural phenomena. Many times these models take on a life of their own for decades and even centuries, despite the fact that they have no direct empirical evidence to support them.

This directly demonstrates Carol's complete ignorance of science. The 'models' are theories which explain direct empirical evidence. That's what they are based on. That's what supports them.

Which explains why many of them ultimately ran into trouble when new data emerged.

Duh! That's how science works: by adjusting our theories to explain the facts. Only theists are incapable of adjusting their theories. Only theists are incapable of adapting to new discoveries. And only fundies (such as yourself) carry over this incapacity to things other than their faith.

Despite these shortcomings, nobody ever thinks of describing these efforts as "not science". These are in fact legitimate scientific endeavors as evidenced by the fact that they are ultimately discarded when the data opposes them.

Yes. The first correct thing you've said. We observe things. Then we proposed explanations. If the explanations are, in principle, testable, then they are science. If the explanations are not, in principle, testable, then they are not science. There is also often a period of wild and exciting speculation -but again that speculation is founded on empirical data.

So Lenny's steps are fine as long as we make it clear that they are required for "establishment" not for "science".

No, they are required for science. Deal with it.

Ideas can, have and will continue to linger (or wallow) in steps one or two while they are "science" but have not matured yet to "establishment".

Your ignorance of how science works and how theories are arrived at, including your projection of knowledge as some kind of 'authority' is duly noted.

One of the examples I gave above was the ether. There never was a shred of direct evidence for its existence. It was invented to provide an absolute velocity.

No, actually it wasn't. Your ignorance of science is showing. It was proposed to explain what material the light-wave was propogated in.

When it was discovered by Michelson/Morely that the speed of light is the same in all directions, scientists did not discrad the ether right away. Instead, they fought tooth and nail to save it. They (Lorents and others) tried dragging and stretching the ether to make it fit the data. It took some doing (Special Relativity) to finally put this beast away.

Einstein codified ideas already in circulation (he didn't even invent E=MC^2, for example) And your description of what happened is precisely in accord with your description of science given above. So what's the problem?

Lenny, you are wrong about "fields" having been confirmed. In modern QED they are totally ignored.

ROTFLMAO. You've GOT to be kidding here.

They were always merely a "model" to provide a framework for EM and other phenomena. They were even given energy and momentum. And yet they were never confirmed and today do not exist. (Despite their continued utility in some areas.)

More Carol incoherence and internal contradiction: "fields do not exist", "fields have utility in various areas." Do you even bother to read the stuff you post? Do you even bother to crack open a textbook before pontificating on these topics? Didn't think so.

And are we willing to suggest that should string theory never achieve "establishment" that those currently engaged in it are not doing "science"? Preposterous!

They are engaged in speculation based on empirical observations. They don't have any actual 'theories' as of yet - merely speculation and math games that haven't yet reached a point of testability. ID doesn't even have the base observation to go on. The argument of the IDM is essentially circular and/or definitional.

The reason ID is problematic as science, Lenny, is not because it cannot get past step three. It is because scientists do not think it has any standing even in steps one and two. It is the same old God idea they are accustomed to rejecting for centuries, as Judge Jones, your hero, so eloquently summarized.

Unsupported nonsense. ID doesn't get any respect because it hasn't established that step one has even happened, and because it proposes nothing testable for step 2. And yet on that basis of non-theory, non-science, it claims that it should be taught.

Rilke's Granddaughter · 20 March 2006

To clarify (at least to some extent) the problems with Carol's response, it's important to distinguish between the concept of ID and the movement that uses that concept.

Conceptually, no scientist finds anything wrong with ID. Indeed, we know that intelligent designers do exist: us, other apes, ants, crows, etc.

The basic unanswered question is whether there are some characterstics of a 'designed' object which are unique to design - and can we determine those characterstics without any knowledge of the designer?

The answer is no. The ID movement claims the answer is yes, but has been unable to support it.

Carol Clouser · 20 March 2006

Flint,

Your general description of what I was saying pretty much hits the nail on the head. Science sets standards for what qualifies as a significant or meaningful entry into Lenny's step one/two worthy of attention. Anything that leads to God is dismissed immediately as not qualifying. The same applies to the magical, as you discussed.

But how does that lead you to conclude that your notion of science is not the same as mine? Perhaps you read too much negativity into my description of this attitude as a "bias". I did not mean to imply by that term that it was comparable to a blind prejudice. It is not. It is based on sound reasoning. I do not fault scientists for it. It is a "bias" in the sense that it has become a permanent fixture of the landscape that always leads in one direction when the God idea rears its head - away.

Flint · 20 March 2006

RGD:

The answer is no. The ID movement claims the answer is yes, but has been unable to support it.

I think you need to emphasize that this distinguishes ID from scientific creationism, which DOES identify design based on a description of the designer. Their designer is described in some detail - looks like us (we were designed in His image), has an emotional makeup indistinguishable from ours (so we solicit His good will exactly the same as we do with people), and has a clear purpose (to create us to worship Him). Carol seems to fall into the straightforward creationist camp - she doesn't try to pretend the Designer is anyone other than the God she happens to believe in, warts and all. And her god's characteristics are described in all the detail that she requires - whatever it takes in terms of powers and purposes to create her directly. If the evidence indicates otherwise, we are misinterpreting it. If we persist in misinterpreting it in the face of Carol's manifest Truth, we must be part of a conspiracy. What other explanation could there possibly be?

Rilke's Granddaughter · 20 March 2006

Your general description of what I was saying pretty much hits the nail on the head. Science sets standards for what qualifies as a significant or meaningful entry into Lenny's step one/two worthy of attention. Anything that leads to God is dismissed immediately as not qualifying. The same applies to the magical, as you discussed.

— Carol
As usually, you are factually incorrect. Non-testable hypotheses are inadmissable, for the simple reason that they can't be tested. It has nothing to do with God, magic, or anything else. Once again you are projected your own ineradicable theistic bias.

But how does that lead you to conclude that your notion of science is not the same as mine? Perhaps you read too much negativity into my description of this attitude as a "bias". I did not mean to imply by that term that it was comparable to a blind prejudice. It is not. It is based on sound reasoning. I do not fault scientists for it. It is a "bias" in the sense that it has become a permanent fixture of the landscape that always leads in one direction when the God idea rears its head - away.

He concludes that because your notion that science is God-averse is demonstrable nonsense. If God were testable, then God could be introduced into scientific explanations. It's the theists who remove God from science by removing the ability to test Her.

BWE · 20 March 2006

It seems to me as if the majority of science is busily making testable, reproduceable hypothoses regarding supernatural explanations for observable manifestations and events. It's just that all the results, with no exceptions yet, point to natural rather than supernatural causes. The gaps get smaller and smaller until the only place left for god is a small, smokey diner on the outskirts of Chicago, being served by a gum-chewing waitress named charlene. He looks down into the swirling clouds of cream as they gradually blend eith the coffe and laments that, even for the action of the cream they have pushed him out.

Flint · 20 March 2006

Carol:

It is a "bias" in the sense that it has become a permanent fixture of the landscape that always leads in one direction when the God idea rears its head - away.

Not quite. Rationality, respect for evidence, ability to admit error, are permanent fixtures because they are essential to what science is. Notions of gods simply do not relate, in any way. Science isn't trying to *avoid* gods anymore than they are trying to use them. Science is blind to gods, indifferent to them, does not react to them in any way. In the world of science, gods neither assist nor hinder. They just don't apply. In speaking of gods, you fall outside the territory that science claims. Your error lies in expecting science to CARE about your gods. Science can't do this. So you accuse science of being OPPOSED to your gods, but that's just spleen. Your gods are irrelevant.

BWE · 20 March 2006

Darn, hypothesis.

Willing suspention of disbelief. (Cain's wife)

Glen Davidson · 20 March 2006

Scientist catagorize ID as "not science", not because it doesn't get past your step three, but precisely because it leads to God (in the most likely scenario).

Why, did Landa say that it leads to God? And how come the IDists sporadically deny that ID is theistic? The fact of the matter is that one of the complaints made against ID is that it does posit a God, or at least a very good copycat of God. We all know that, despite the aliens and time travellers thrown at us, because the "designer" has no attributes (much like Maimonides' God). We are not opposed to design theories (though we so far lack any reason to infer design in biology, apart from our own doings), rather we are opposed to transcendent designers whose characteristics and goals are completely unknown being invoked in "science". Clouser sounds like nothing other than a conspiracy theorist who blames "atheists" for covering up the evidence for Noah's ark. Why yes, we "atheists" are so dedicated to our Satanic ways that we would refuse fame, fortune, and an everlasting name for ourselves in order to cover up the evidence that shows the ark and God to exist. I simply didn't know we were so unselfish, but by God, we are. Let's see, for centuries people have been trying to "prove God", and even the clever insufficient arguments (like Anselm's) are admired in a way. Useless crap books claiming to prove God sell by the millions, making charlatans rich. And we are such pious "atheists" (I hardly think of myself as an "atheist", but I'm sure I'd fit the IDist "definition") that instead of trying to do ID better (which surely must be possible, if it is science, since Behe and Dembski are so unconvincing), thus to legitimately gain the rewards that others illegitimately claim, we nonetheless dogmatically stick to our "atheism". Even more strangely, theistic evolutionists like Ken Miller also refuse to follow the ID "line of reasoning", rather than take a bold new step to showing theism's relevance. Now I realize that some theists might be too stuck in their ways even to promote a good new idea that leads to God, however I seriously doubt that all sound theistic biologists would be so foolish (note that I do not include the present ID charlatans in that class).

And you may expect scientists to continue to do so with any other theory to come up about anything else.

Try for a coherent thought next time.

This is contrary to your claim and supports the ID proponents claim that science is biased against God.

Why yes, your blank, unsupported assertion once again "supports" IDist claims of bias, though only in the "let's repeat what we can't demonstrate until people believe it" sort of way. This seems to be the one way you have to try to convince people of your meaningless repetitions. Glen D http://tinyurl.com/b8ykm

Rilke's Granddaughter · 20 March 2006

I think you need to emphasize that this distinguishes ID from scientific creationism, which DOES identify design based on a description of the designer.

— Flint
A good point that I failed to make clear. But I would also argue that the scientific creationists have defined their designer in such a fashion that She is logically equivalent to "unknown designer", since no constraints can be placed upon Her actions.

Their designer is described in some detail - looks like us (we were designed in His image), has an emotional makeup indistinguishable from ours (so we solicit His good will exactly the same as we do with people), and has a clear purpose (to create us to worship Him).

But no limit on mechanism.

Carol seems to fall into the straightforward creationist camp - she doesn't try to pretend the Designer is anyone other than the God she happens to believe in, warts and all. And her god's characteristics are described in all the detail that she requires - whatever it takes in terms of powers and purposes to create her directly. If the evidence indicates otherwise, we are misinterpreting it. If we persist in misinterpreting it in the face of Carol's manifest Truth, we must be part of a conspiracy. What other explanation could there possibly be?

But that's not what she appears to be arguing. I must re-read (yuck) her posts on this point.

BWE · 20 March 2006

Carol appears to be arguing that if we would just go out and buy Landa's darn book, she might be able to help him get the next one published by a real publisher.

Glen Davidson · 20 March 2006

Just thought I'd link to a source discussing fields in QED, and especially "color fields" in QCD:

http://www.fuw.edu.pl/~dobaczew/maub-42w/node9.html

Of course the "ontological" status of these fields is not clear, nor is it truly relevant to physics.

Where did Carol get her "knowledge" anyhow? And how many times does she wish to be wrong?

Glen D
http://tinyurl.com/b8ykm

Rilke's Granddaughter · 20 March 2006

Where did Carol get her "knowledge" anyhow? And how many times does she wish to be wrong?

Since Carol's limited knowledge of science is highly inconsistent and idiosyncratic, I'd suggest that she had no formal training of any kind. Certainly she has had no training in the philosophy and practise of science. As for the other... how does "infinitely many" strike you?

PvM · 20 March 2006

The reason ID is problematic as science, Lenny, is not because it cannot get past step three. It is because scientists do not think it has any standing even in steps one and two. It is the same old God idea they are accustomed to rejecting for centuries, as Judge Jones, your hero, so eloquently summarized.

— Carol
You are partially correct, it's a God of the Gaps argument based on our ignorance that that which we cannot explain should be seen as evidence for God. The problem with ID is that it is scientifically vacuous. And it is fundamentally so because it relies on an eliminative approach and does not provide ANY scientifically relevant understanding beyond the obvious that we do not understand.

One of the examples I gave above was the ether. There never was a shred of direct evidence for its existence. It was invented to provide an absolute velocity. When it was discovered by Michelson/Morely that the speed of light is the same in all directions, scientists did not discrad the ether right away. Instead, they fought tooth and nail to save it. They (Lorents and others) tried dragging and stretching the ether to make it fit the data. It took some doing (Special Relativity) to finally put this beast away.

— Carol
First of all the ether made predictions and could be relatively simply be falsified. What's your point here? That science is fallible? Is that the hope you have for ID? How would science being fallible resolve the scientific vacuity of ID?

At this point scientists had postulated a hypothetical medium that they called the "ether" (also spelled "aether") that was thought to be all pervading, or penetrating any enclosure with ease. However, if that were true, the motion of the Earth around the Sun would result in a noticeable motion of the Earth relative to the ether. Much like a boat cruising over the ocean, this motion should be measurable. Earth's velocity in its orbit is substantial at about 30 kilometers per second (18.6 miles per second), but it is still only 1 ten-thousanth of the speed of light. Therefore, any measurements of this effect had to be extremely accurate.

Link

The surprising result of this experiment, and it has since been repeated over and over again with very high accuracy, is that there is no measurable motion of the Earth relative to the ether. This result left physicists stunned for many years and some of them postulated that the ether, while real, was in principle unobservable. Albert Einstein finally took a brave step forward with the publication of his theory of special relativity in 1906. His apparently innocent and reasonable argument was that, if the ether was unobservable, or in other words that there was no experimental proof of it whatsoever, the simplest explanation was that it did not exist.

A wise suggestion by Einstein Michelson received his nobel prize for physics in 1907.

steve s · 20 March 2006

I disagree with Rilke's granddaughter, as far as Carol's science goes, she occasionally seems to have some sophisticated knowledge. The problem is, she bends and squeezes it to accomodate her crazy religion.

Stephen Elliott · 20 March 2006

Posted by Carol Clouser on March 20, 2006 02:05 AM (e) ... One of the examples I gave above was the ether. There never was a shred of direct evidence for its existence. It was invented to provide an absolute velocity. When it was discovered by Michelson/Morely that the speed of light is the same in all directions, scientists did not discrad the ether right away. Instead, they fought tooth and nail to save it. They (Lorents and others) tried dragging and stretching the ether to make it fit the data. It took some doing (Special Relativity) to finally put this beast away...

Carol, The "ether" was used as a model IIRC because at that time waves needed a medium to travel. EM radiation was best described as a wave. Therefore some medium was required for it to travel. So the idea of an "ether" was based on empirical evidence. It was also testable, hence GR showed it could be done-away with. All in all that means the "ether" hypothesis was definitely scientific. God on the other hand, I doubt could ever be considered science. How could you ever disprove the idea? On the subject of ID proponents as liars. Why would you think otherwise? Dembski is definitely a liar, no two ways about it. He proves it repeatedly on his own blog. I would grant that some Innocent people could be taken-in by ID, but the behaviour of most proponents definitely backs-up Lenny's assertion. Carol, do you not consider the "wedge" as damning evidence?

Sir_Toejam · 20 March 2006

Plantinga, Intelligent Design, and Uninformed Opinions

well, Carol certainly has that part down.

Glen Davidson · 20 March 2006

The basic unanswered question is whether there are some characterstics of a 'designed' object which are unique to design - and can we determine those characterstics without any knowledge of the designer? The answer is no. The ID movement claims the answer is yes, but has been unable to support it.

Of course this gets back to Carol's claims about ID depending upon "complexity" alone to show design, despite the fact that IDists actually resort to purpose. The IDists are trying to have it both ways, of course, and their only difference from Paley is the fact that they try to claim that complexity by itself shows purpose (though it depends upon day and mood how they'll argue), thus design. The idea being that only intelligence could be behind the "purposes" which they insist are inevitably behind integrated complexity. They do sometimes try to get away from purpose, since the purpose of creating vestigial organs, failure to adapt bird "design" to bat "design", and the expected unique evolutionary effects utilized by cladistics to follow unique evolutionary divergences, make no sense to either purpose or design. Only a designer could purpose to use bird "design" in bats (the Wright brothers did use bird characteristics in their design, suggesting that they had more sense than the IDists' God), despite evolutionary divergence, while we repeatedly fail to observe the sorts of borrowing in biology (aside from horizontal transfers) that known designers rely upon. So once they decided that God was an engineer, Behe and Dembski thought back to some of their schooling and thought, hey, we were told that God is beyond human understanding. What they didn't do then was to recognize that if God is all that, beyond our understanding, etc., then God is not actually an engineer. Being the poorly educated "thinkers" that they are, they stuck by the human analogies of designed integrated complexity to claim that God or some other designer must be responsible for life. What they didn't recall from their religious training is that this God beyond human understanding is also said to be simple, and indeed, that the human soul is another simple "being". That is to say, even through simple metaphysical thought, ancient philosophers recognized that there was no link between complexity and God. No doubt this is because God had become a simple thought, having been stripped of relevant predictions in His relationship with our complex world, but at least they did recognize the simplicity of the putative "greatest intellect" and could not and did not predict complex solutions (not that they claimed these were impossible with God, but weren't generally expected) coming from God's actions within the world. The IDists and Carol only "predict" integrated complexity as the result of God's actions because it is the one aspect of biology that remains analogous with some of our creations. All of the other marks of human design are missing. But unfortunately for IDists, real science isn't much concerned with complexity as a mere concept, rather it is interested in the details of complexity. Having utterly failed to match up life with human design, or with the simplicity of God, IDists wish to match up the inscrutability of God with the inscrutability of the complexities of life. The trouble is that they have no curiosity regarding life as a subject in its own right, thus they are interested in the simple concept of "complexity", try to reduce complex life down to absurdly restricted search spaces (using the a priori concept that similarities in life are due to "design", not ancestry), and to ignore all of the relevant details that indicate to science the complex history of life. Baptizing life's complexity into God's inscrutability, they then ignore the details--indeed, ID virtually demands that the details of life be ignored, except as present-day chemical and physical interactions. What I'm saying is that we don't really care about "complexity" itself, rather we're only interested in the meaning of the particulars of complexity--and even of simplicity. The simplicity of DNA acting as the genetic basis for non-viral life appears to be explicable via the last common ancestor, while the complexity of the huge number of DNA variations is explained by mutation and natural selection (short version) since the last common ancestor. The whole pattern is quite consistent with evolutionary predictions, while we know enough about other potential genetic material to know that DNA isn't ubiquitous due to necessity per se. We want to know why the flagellum has its particular complexities, some of which are traceable to other organelles/processes. Is it not curious that the same genetic material is to be found behind both the flagellum and the type III secretory system? Not to the IDists. They want unfathomable complexity, which by a rather simple psychology becomes equal to their preferred cause, the unfathomable God. The upshot is that the IDists don't even have a scientific view of complexity, since they aren't actually concerned about the complex details of complexity, only reveling that it "exists". Not only can't they and Carol point to any linkage between God and complexity (St. Augustine was inclined to explain variety through evil, btw), they are using the meaninglessness of their theological beliefs to confer meaninglessness upon biological complexity. We tend not to focus on the threat to science (unlike the threat to science education) from ID because ID has virtually no traction within the scientific community. Yet as we sometimes note, ID cannot provide answers, come up against intriguing problems, or explain the complexity of life. This is not, however, necessarily due primarily to its being pseudoscience, rather it has been deliberately made meaningless in order for the empty concept of complexity to match up with their empty conception of God. This produces a psychological symmetry between the unknowns of life and their unknown "Great Engineer". I was just going to make a few comments about the unknowability of said "designer" in this post, but ended up with more of an essay on their lack of concern for the details of life. But why not? About the only thing that is interesting about Carol is her lack of curiosity regarding Bible, the universe, and biology. And I think it is quite plausible that, no matter the lack of any sound ties between God and complexity, the real psychological linkage is the unfathomability of both in the IDists' mind. Life will continue to be unfathomable to them as long as they need it to be. Glen D http://tinyurl.com/b8ykm

Glen Davidson · 20 March 2006

Since Carol's limited knowledge of science is highly inconsistent and idiosyncratic, I'd suggest that she had no formal training of any kind.

I'm certainly inclined toward your take on it. Steve s. has a point in that she seems to have more knowledge than your average IDist slob, but the inconsistencies are glaring. My own education in physics is limited (I had a year of calculus-based physics, and I read beyond that level), but I can recognize some of her claims to be quite bad. And I also generally know where my knowledge of physics fails, a useful sort of knowledge that I wish more would gain.

Certainly she has had no training in the philosophy and practise of science.

None that has done her much good, in any event.

As for the other... how does "infinitely many" strike you?

It is, perhaps, the most interesting aspect of the bulk of IDists, or of whatever she claims herself to be (she seems to be edging toward biological ID, after having previously appeared to be a cosmological IDist--makes sense, though, considering that the same kinds of disconnected leaps have to be made either way).

Raging Bee · 20 March 2006

Lou FCD: DaveScot's stupidity is getting more laughable every day. When's his brain just going to explode and get it over with?

I love his latest blowhard routine: "We paid taxes to support this research, so we have the right to believe it says whatever we want it to say, and we also have the right to heap verbal abuse on the people who get our tax money!" Yeah, that's real science for you...

'Rev Dr' Lenny Flank · 20 March 2006

Before I call people liars I would rather accuse them of milder offenses, such as being disingenuous.

Liars are liars, Carol. IDers are liars. When they claim the IDer isn't God, they are lying. Flat out lying. Deliberately, calculatingly, and with malice afrorethought. Sorry if you don't like that. (shrug) BTW, Carol, I am not an atheist. So your silly "science hates God!!!!!" BS just strikes me as being strident, shrill, and stupid, as well as dishonest. Just like IDers. But thanks for once again confirming for everyone that (1) ID is just religious apologetics, (2) IDers are lying to us when they claim it's not, and (3) Judge Jones was entirely correct when he ruled that it is. In case you haven't noticed, Carol, it's illegal to teach religious opinions in public schools. Sorry if you don't like that either. Perhaps you'd be happier living somewhere where there is no separation of church and state, and where political authority is used to enforce orthodox religious opinions. May I suggest Iran? I do confess that I find it awfully amusing to hear someone who is JEWISH, of all things, arguing in favor of theocracy and using state power to enforce religious opinions. Perhaps you are unaware of what happened every time in the past that political authorities attempted to enforce their religious opinions upon Jews. Does the name "Torquemada" ring any bells for you, Carol? But then, I guess that *any* religious nut, like you, would indeed find a theocratic police state far more desirable, as long as *you* get to be the police . . . .

Carol Clouser · 21 March 2006

PvM and Stephen,

A few corrections regarding the ether.

Basing the ether hypothesis on the perceived need for a medium for light does NOT constitute empirical evidence in support of the idea. It does constitute an invention whose sole purpose is to satisfy a perception or assumption, later proven totally unwarranted, that light needs a medium. Sounds like ID to me.

The ether idea was not falsifiable nor was it ever falsified. All the difficulties with light were resolved in some fashion by Lorents and others. It was merely discarded as uneccesary after Special Relativity. Your own quote, PvM, is very telling. "This result left physicists stunned for many years and some of them postulated that the ether, while real, was in principle unobservable." Sounds very much like ID to me. Just replace the ether with the designer.

The need for a medium for light was actually more than just the need for a medium. That is a superficial, shallow understanding of the situation. The deeper meaning is that the speed of light as it emerged from Maxwell's equations needed a frame of reference. In other words, the velocity of light needed to be an absolute quantity. The ether provided that frame. But that still does not render the ether empirical in the absence of direct detection.

Lenny,

Your post above is so off the wall irrelevant even by your standards that I am actually surprized at you.

Flint · 21 March 2006

Carol: Again, I think you have misunderstood:

Basing the ether hypothesis on the perceived need for a medium for light does NOT constitute empirical evidence in support of the idea.

Of course not. We observe something for which we have no explanation. We propose an explanation. We test, and find that our explanation was incorrect. We go with the correct explanation. Consider the claim of dark matter. We have no direct evidence of dark matter, so it's just like the ether. It satisfies the need for something to make the theory work. Now, let's say there's no such thing as dark matter; what we're seeing is an aspect of known forces not fully understood. Of course, we can never prove there IS no dark matter; we can't ever prove that something does NOT exist. We would simply discard the idea as no longer necessary. Same with dark energy. Same with the ether. And in general, proposed causes for anything at all can never be falsified in the sense you are using. If the proposals are correct, they become solid theories. If subsequent evidence supports some alternative explanation far better, then the initial guesses become obsolete. This is not like ID in any way. UNLESS, of course, you can suggest any conceivable body of evidence in support of anything that (in your opinion) would render your supernatural "explanations" moot and obsolete. So far, I've seen no sign of such an ability on the part of any creationists. I fail to see how discarding useless or incorrect proposals in favor of superior ones "sounds like ID" in any way.

Carol Clouser · 21 March 2006

Flint,

The ether is ID-like in the sense that a perception or assumption leads to a need for an hypothesis which in turn leads to an invented entity that people are willing to accept (for a significant period of time) despite the fact that it appears to be "in principle unobservable."

Dark matter may very well end up like the ether. Time will tell.

Some other posters, you know who you are,

Insults, stupidity and ignorance DO NOT an argument make.

Jon Fleming · 21 March 2006

The ether is ID-like in the sense that a perception or assumption leads to a need for an hypothesis which in turn leads to an invented entity that people are willing to accept (for a significant period of time) despite the fact that it appears to be "in principle unobservable."

— Carol Clouser
The ether was in principle and in practice observable; had it been present, Michelson and Morley would have observed it.

Shirley Knott · 21 March 2006

Well, Carol, that certainly eliminates 99% of your effluent.
Thanks for contributing, go away.

hugs,
Shirley Knott

BWE · 21 March 2006

Insults, stupidity and ignorance DO NOT an argument make.

Insults, stupidity and ignorance DO NOT an argument make.

Insults, stupidity and ignorance DO NOT an argument make.

Insults, stupidity and ignorance DO NOT an argument make.

Insults, stupidity and ignorance DO NOT an argument make.

Insults, stupidity and ignorance DO NOT an argument make.

now carol, go write that down 100 times on the chalkboard.

Rilke's Granddaughter · 21 March 2006

PvM and Stephen, A few corrections regarding the ether. Basing the ether hypothesis on the perceived need for a medium for light does NOT constitute empirical evidence in support of the idea. It does constitute an invention whose sole purpose is to satisfy a perception or assumption, later proven totally unwarranted, that light needs a medium. Sounds like ID to me.

— Carol
You are being disingenous; you were corrected on the reason the aether concept arose, not whether or not the perceived need constitutes evidence. You were wrong. Admit it honestly.

The ether idea was not falsifiable nor was it ever falsified.

Factually incorrect. The Michelson-Morley experiements falsified the existence of the aether. Your ignorance of both science the history of science is duly noted.

All the difficulties with light were resolved in some fashion by Lorents and others.

No. These were, in essence, stop-gap measures. YOU ADMITTED THIS YOURSELF IN YOUR EARLIER POST. Remember that you said,

When it was discovered by Michelson/Morely that the speed of light is the same in all directions, scientists did not discrad the ether right away. Instead, they fought tooth and nail to save it. They (Lorents and others) tried dragging and stretching the ether to make it fit the data.

You should remember that all the nonsense you post can still be found on the threads.

Your own quote, PvM, is very telling. "This result left physicists stunned for many years and some of them postulated that the ether, while real, was in principle unobservable." Sounds very much like ID to me. Just replace the ether with the designer.

Since everyone is agreed that this is poor science, then you are AGREEING THAT ID IS POOR SCIENCE. I'm glad that you concede that we are right.

The need for a medium for light was actually more than just the need for a medium. That is a superficial, shallow understanding of the situation. The deeper meaning is that the speed of light as it emerged from Maxwell's equations needed a frame of reference. In other words, the velocity of light needed to be an absolute quantity. The ether provided that frame. But that still does not render the ether empirical in the absence of direct detection.

This is, of course, factually incorrect and represents your ignorance of science and the history of science. Perhaps you should read up on it?

Lenny, Your post above is so off the wall irrelevant even by your standards that I am actually surprized at you.

Lenny continues to point out that you are dishonest, inconsistent, and ignorant of both science and theology. How is that off-the-wall?

k.e. · 21 March 2006

Carol are shure you are not on some sort of chemical ?

Your own quote, PvM, is very telling. "This result left physicists stunned for many years and some of them postulated that the ether, while real, was in principle unobservable." Sounds very much like ID to me. Just replace the ether with the designer.

THE designer ....oh really ? Who.....Ferdinand Porche? He's dead.
How about ace spaliens, LGM, cosmic turtles, gaps between atoms,muons,bosons, trillionths of seconds, Baal, Osiris, Moloch, Ashtaroth?

If you are going to factualize your feelings and desire for the temporal existance of something more than ignorance then by all means provide a wave model and call the old fella refered to in the "True" Detective/History Stories of the old testament, ether.

Ether you is or ether you ain't proposing a naturalistic alternate theory for RM + NS. So lets have it NOW. This is your BIG chance to save the WHOLE ID movement. Your entry into the promised land would be guaranteed, regretfully however not instantaneous

Here is a quick tip... They have enough loonies on the job now, I don't think they want anymore. They are looking for the right meme to add to Newspeak Ingsoc B vocabulary, reality as far as they are concerned should not be allowed to exist , and is merely a linguistic impediment amenable to postmodernist redefinition.

Carol a part time ID fluffer, does have part of the plan worked out, promote religiuos obsurantism as "objective fact". The real IDeologists just have to keep up their blizzard of BS to have reality "tweaked" ......its already happening.

From this blog "Frank Luntz: The Devil In Disguising Language".

If you have ever wondered why a bill that allows more pollution into the air is called the Clean Skies Initiative, the answer is Frank Luntz.

Mike Z · 21 March 2006

Rilke's Granddaughter and others have alluded to this, but I think it is important to make the point more explicit...

When defending the scientific status of ID, the proponents want to be able to point to historical examples of hypotheses that were accepted as scientific, and then claim that since those hypotheses are in some way analogous to ID, then ID should likewise be deemed scientific.

Aside from the big problems with the specific examples and analogies, it is interesting to note that the examples used by IDers are always of FAILED hypotheses. No examples of SUCCESSFUL hypotheses can ever be used because then there would be no chance for the analogy to seem at all plausible, even to the non-experts. I suppose that ID proponents recognize this, hence their preference for failed historical examples.

Further, we should note that after the example hypotheses were shown to be mistaken, they were always discarded by all but the fringe scientists and the cranks. In this sense, at least, the analogy with ID seems to work.

Mythos · 21 March 2006

I disagree with Plantingia on most points, but his critique of verifiability is warranted, positivism is over man.

— T. Scrivener
You may not have been told, but philosophy is useless. It's doubtful that folk here at PT have even heard of Carnap or Schlick, much less of Haack. And the idea that the practice of Science (said in a hushed tone) may involve philosophical commitments surely absurd. Why truth, meaning, verification, model, cause... these are all obviously transparent concepts. The scientist need only gape at the facts and reality is revealed (so there, Rorty and Foucault... morons). Positivism may be over for people who know what it is, but it's not over in the heads of scientists.

Mythos · 21 March 2006

I disagree with Plantingia on most points, but his critique of verifiability is warranted, positivism is over man.

— T. Scrivener
Haven't you been told? Philosophy is useless. Most folk here at PT haven't even heard of Carnap or Schlick, much less Haack. And the idea that the practice of SCIENCE (said in a hushed tone) might depend on philosophical commitments is surely absurd. Truth, meaning, verification, model, cause... these are all obviously transparent. The scientist only need gape at the facts and reality reveals itself (so there Rorty and Foucault). Positivism may be dead for those who know what it means, but it is very much alive in the heads of scientists.

Courtney Gidts · 9 May 2006

I've managed to save up roughly $74408 in my bank account, but I'm not sure if I should buy a house or not. Do you think the market is stable or do you think that home prices will decrease by a lot?