While Steve Jones might think human evolution has stopped, I have to say that that is impossible. If human technology removes a selective constraint, that doesn't stop evolution — it just opens up a new degree of freedom and allows change to carry us in a novel direction.
One interesting potential example is the availability of relatively safe Cesarean sections. Babies have very big heads that squeeze with only great difficulty through a relatively narrow pelvis, so the relationship in size between head diameter and the diameter of the pelvic opening has been a limitation on human evolution. We know this had to be a factor in our evolution: the average newborn mammal has a cranial capacity that is roughly 50% of the adult size, chimpanzee babies have heads about 40% of the adult size, but human babies have crania that are only 23% of what they will be in adults. While our brains have gotten larger over evolutionary time, they have not gotten proportionally larger in utero, because large-headed babies increase the difficulty of labor and cause increased mortality in childbirth. If childbirth could bypass the pelvic bottleneck, that would allow for fetal heads to grow larger without increasing the risk of killing mother and/or child.
And childbirth is a risky proposition for women; 529,000 die every year from this natural process (although only about 1% of those deaths occur in places where women have access to good, modern medical facilities — hooray for modern medicine). About 8% of those deaths occur from obstructed labor, where the fetus is unable to proceed through the birth canal for various reasons, and these are the kinds of birth problems that can be circumvented by C-sections. In practice, teaching health care workers how to carry out emergency C-sections has been tested in regions in Africa, where it has actually worked well at reducing maternal mortality.
This is the subject of an article by Joseph Walsh in the American Biology Teacher, which suggests that C-sections will have an effect on human evolution.
"Nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution." This was the title of an essay by geneticist Theodosius Dobzhansky writing in 1973. Many causes have been given for the increased Cesarean section rate in developed countries, but biologic evolution has not been one of them. The C-section rate will continue to rise, because the ability to perform a safe C-section has liberated human childbirth from natural selection directed against too small a maternal pelvis and too large a fetal head. Babies will get bigger and pelves will get smaller because there is nothing to prevent it.
The evidence so far is entirely circumstantial, but Walsh makes an interesting case. There are several correlations that imply an effect, but I can't help but think there are alternative explanations that may swamp out any heritable, evolutionary effect. The kinds of evidence he describes are:
A known trend for increasing birth weight in the US, by about 40 g over 18 years in one study. It's there, all right, but these studies don't demonstrate a genetic component to increased size — it could be a consequence of better nutrition and medical care.
An increasing frequency of C-sections. Again, this isn't necessarily genetically based at all, but could be a consequence of fads in medicine, or social factors, such as an increase in the likelihood of medical malpractice suits making doctors more cautious.
Walsh describes a couple of studies that seem to show that cephalopelvic disproportion (small pelvis or large babies or both together) does have a genetic component. So at least it is likely that there are heritable variations in these parameters that could influence the likelihood of obstructed labor.
There is statistical variation in neo-natal mortality that varies with birth weight in a suggestive way. Low birth weight clearly puts infants at risk, and there is an optimum weight around 3600 grams for newborns that minimizes mortality. Death rates also rise with increasing birth weight above the optimum. There is some data that suggest that availablity of modern medical care and C-sections reduces infant mortality at larger birth weights.
That increasing availability of C-sections might lead to an evolutionary shift towards increasing cranial capacity at birth is a reasonable hypothesis, but I'm not convinced that it has been convincingly demonstrated yet. There are too many variables that effect brain size at birth to make a clean analysis possible; in addition, many of the measures are indirect. Often, we use birth weight as a proxy for cranial capacity, and that means the numbers and correlations are sloppier than they should be. Many of the measurements made are of factors that are readily influenced by the environment, which makes it difficult to imply that these are the product of genetics.
So the idea is weakly supported, but tantalizing. Even as a purely theoretical exercise, though, what it does say is that it is obvious that human culture cannot end human evolution…all it can do is shape the direction in which it can occur.
Walsh J (2008) Evolution & the Cesarean Section Rate. The American Biology Teacher 70(7):401-404.
52 Comments
D. P. Robin · 17 October 2008
A very interesting idea. I'd like to turn it on its head so as to speak.
The counterpart to large brains is wide hips in women to support a birth canal through which a baby's head can fit. Rather than removing a problematic constraint on brain size in adults, I'd argue that were there to be universal use of C-sections you have surely removed or at least drastically reduced selective pressure on maintaining wide hip and that pelvic breadth would over time tend back towards males.
(I'll stop here in the interest of time and brevity).
dpr
g · 17 October 2008
I've wondered idly about this from time to time. It worries me a little: suppose that indeed there's no longer substantial selection pressure for wide pelvis and small head, and that over the next while the human population (or substantial portions of it, in countries with good medical facilities) evolves smaller pelves and bigger heads. And suppose, then, there's some kind of short-term crisis that interferes with those good medical facilities: then instead of setting civilization back for a bit, we lose half the population...
Richard Simons · 17 October 2008
Some years ago I was told that there has been a change in the proportion of Rh negative children being born because modern medicine has changed the chances of survival where the mother is Rh-. Is there any data to back this up?
eric · 17 October 2008
Meh, 3 billion people live on less than $3/day. This is not a problem for homo sapiens, its at worst a problem for some individual bloodlines who happen to be comparatively very wealthy. And even that worry is speculative.
Dan · 17 October 2008
On another side, I've heard that children born via C-section have weaker immune systems, so could we also become a frailer people as well? And how would that effect the transfer of genetic material? Interesting thought, at least.
Dale Husband · 17 October 2008
Note that Intelligent Design gets a terrible blow from the facts regarding the human female reproductive system. Instead of babies going out through the narrow and thus dangerous pelvic region, why not have them go out through the abdominal wall NATURALLY? No need for C-sections! Brains of most mammals would be much larger and high intelligence would have evolved sooner and be more common. Animal babies would be much stronger at birth too.
Henry J · 17 October 2008
Four legged mammals don't really have the same problem though, do they? Or is it that just because their heads are comparatively smaller at birth?
Henry
D. P. Robin · 17 October 2008
Ichthyic · 17 October 2008
Meh, 3 billion people live on less than $3/day. This is not a problem for homo sapiens, its at worst a problem for some individual bloodlines who happen to be comparatively very wealthy. And even that worry is speculative.
*bing*
Paul Burnett · 17 October 2008
iml8 · 17 October 2008
Henry J · 17 October 2008
Dale Husband · 17 October 2008
DS · 17 October 2008
Actually, cranial dimensions at birth and pelvic size are not the only traits that are affected by relaxed selection. There is evidence to suggest that every human carries the equivalent of 5-6 recessive muations that would be lethal if homozygous. A lot of that variation might be due to relaxed selection. So, if we lost modern medicine for any length of time, the results might indeed be disasterous.
But then again, what are the odds that humans would be stupid enough to let that happen? Surely they wouldn't develop weapons powerful enough to destroy civilization before acquiring the wisdom not to use them.
Thomas · 17 October 2008
On the subject of evolution stopping, with a population as large as human beings, with virtually no limits on our regional and global mobility, genetic drift is essentially eliminated. After selection, drift is arguably the most powerful agent of evolution but the significance of drift is inversely proportional to population.
Moreover, human evolution insomuch as it could lead to speciation has, if not stopped, slowed to such a crawl as to be undetectable even over thousands of generations.
In order for us to speciate we would have to experience some sort of global disaster that drastically reduces the global population or some subset of the population would have to be isolated within a space with different selective pressures than the world at large. In both these cases drift would again become a significant factor in the progression of human evolution.
Ah, punctuated equilibrium in action.
Frank B · 17 October 2008
Crudely Wrott · 17 October 2008
Evolution in humans stopping? Only in humans? Or in some or all species? Or only selected genera? In any case, why?
Guess 1) An evolutionary goal had been reached and selective pressures evaporated. I got what I want. That is, what my ancestors wanted.
Guess 2) An evolutionary goal had been totally broken by behavioral traits. Naughty people thinking well.
Guess 3) Some fundamental quality of the universe suddenly changed. Like f=m*a.
Guess 4) That's the way Dog wants it.
Guess 5) Apparently, from what we currently know, things could have turned out differently but they didn't. They turned out just like this. And there is reason to think that if things had turned out differently, we would still be able to make useful models of it all. Some models exist in the mind, some in computer code and lots of them exist on the backs of cocktail napkins. Interestingly, a great number of models seem to be connected in logical ways. In some cases, models based on previous models can be made that allow you to first make a model of something and then go make the thing out of real matter and energy. Frequently, the thing made is something completely new.
In general, broadly speaking, without resort to any confirming authority beyond what a person can conceive and model--
1) and 2) are easily dismissed. Each assumes that any evolutionary process has a purpose when it is developing and that it is aimed at a target. There are many good arguments against this, not limited to temporal problems.
As for 3), well, it would be hard to miss.
4): Dog bless all believers. Except the shrill and insistent ones. And the ones who kill people who offend their deep religious sensibilities. The remainder are usually hard to tell apart in casual relations and are genuinely nice people. Good neighbors. People of good humor and honesty are a normal occurrence, and some of them just happen to take great comfort in notions that others find either hilarious or threatening. Common among many religions is the notion that our present biological life is just one of two or more lives that we live. So curious are they as to the nature of the next, or final, life, that all manner of speculation and claims of truth abound. They clash with a terrible sound yet out of the noise comes the assumption that this life is worth less, or is only preparatory to, the really big show. This life is the testing ground for future bliss, and so they trade today for tomorrow. The day is then most certainly gone. But bless them anyway. I do. From the bottom of my black, godless heart.
5). Hmmm.
Crudely Wrott · 17 October 2008
I ran OT in my reply to Guess 4 above. Another thread got mixed in. [blush]
I meant to say that the application of our brains, connected as they are to our eyes and ears and hands and such, yields quantitative results. Even when the results are unsuspected and contrary to expectation. We seem to be able to adapt not only over eons, we seem to do it in moments when the unexpected happens. Science is this talent combined with a talent for keeping detailed records. In myriad situations, not only is evolution observable, but also revealed are the details of how it happens. And all this from just paying attention. But we are a long way from predicting how our genetic makeup will settle into a state of equilibrium. To say nothing of the implied control of environment to a severe degree. So any such prediction must be held at arm's length until there is evidence. Prediction fails.
The other Guesses share common variants of anthropomorphism, which is chiefly comprised of projecting human desire onto innate matter. They are also very religious in that each assumes an overriding imperative impose upon reality from without. And they do not yield quantitative results.
Robert · 18 October 2008
Is this right?
We gave up the ability of swift flight, for an upright gate, which freed the hands, but at the cost of a bent spine and necessarily narrower hips, and therefore more undeveloped child at birth, mentally and physically?
Please forgive, if this is obvious, I am an interested ammateur and would enjoy a more rigorous (please brief) instruction.
Rob.
P.S leads to articles and sites are ok, but, a quicky here would be pleasant.
Eric Finn · 18 October 2008
The fossil record indicates increase of cranial volume during the evolution of one branch of primates to modern humans. During the same time, more elaborate tools have been taken in use. In this respect, humans are more intelligent than other primates.
The physical sizes of humans vary quite a lot. So do their cranial volumes (although much less) without any apparent impact on one's intelligence, as we commonly perceive it. Could it be possible that the large head of a human baby is just a by-product of the change that led to improved tool-making?
Regards
Eric
P.S. I refuse to discuss how many neurons are required to be able to build a nuclear bomb.
Torbjörn Larsson, OM · 18 October 2008
Eric Finn · 18 October 2008
JGB · 19 October 2008
Just a note on the C-section evidence. If you compare C sections rates in European countries you would quickly note that the American rate is a complete abberration. The evidence is much more in favor of thousands of frivolous C -sections being performed in the United States probably from a few different sociological factors all costing a lot of wasted money.
novparl · 20 October 2008
So why hasn't natural selection selected for easier birth? After all, there've been millions of other selections.
Prof. Jones may be right for the wrong reasons. After all, nothing's evolving at the moment. Except viruses.
Looking forward to the abuse.
Dave Luckett · 20 October 2008
"So why hasn’t natural selection selected for easier birth?"
Because selection pressure for greater intelligence is stronger. There are a number of drawbacks to larger brain size - energy needs, cooling problems, difficult birth (though this is at least partially also attributable to bipedalism) and very long dependent infancy and childhood. But a larger brain makes up for them.
As Clarence Darrow asked, in the Scopes monkey trial, "What else sets us apart from the animals?"
D. P. Robin · 20 October 2008
Science Avenger · 20 October 2008
fnxtr · 20 October 2008
I get the impression novparl thinks evolution is goal-oriented, that's why he doesn't see any.
I think the issue of variation was addressed earlier... is humanity becoming, er, homogeneous because of the worldwide mobility of much of the population?
Are blood types dispersing geographically?
I wonder what kind variation we'll see in the sapiens population over the next 100 or 1000 years with the removal of so much selection pressure.
What new selection will arise out of social constructs?
Stuart Weinstein · 20 October 2008
Not only bigger brains, but tighter vaginas should also result.
Interesting combination.
novparl · 21 October 2008
@ Science Avenger (aggressive name!) - that's exactly what I expect. Bit disappointed there isn't more abuse.
@ fnxtr - relaxation of selection? With overpopulation pressure? It'll be survival of the fittest - or the strongest, as the Germans say (Ueberlebung der Staerksten).
Stanton · 21 October 2008
Veri Kurtarma · 21 October 2008
"And childbirth is a risky proposition for women; 529,000 die every year from this natural process"
Is this info come from UN?
fnxtr · 21 October 2008
Stanton I hope that was pointed at novparl. I was thinking more about sexual selection and what becomes fashionable from one season to the next, and in what sub-cultures. Maybe there will never be a large enough preference for a certain image of man/woman to influence genetic drift in any particular direction (though Madison Avenue is trying). Or several directions, depending on whose clique you're in. (Or maybe we'll grow big flashy tails ;-} ).
ARN · 21 October 2008
eric · 21 October 2008
rward · 21 October 2008
Stanton · 21 October 2008
novparl · 22 October 2008
The United States of Angry.
Ah, Stanton, I was hoping you'd show up. Didn't you want to get back at me for ridiculing your feminannyism?
I'm not a self-professed wannabe martyr. I just predicted abuse. I'm not a martyr because I choose to come here to make fun of you emotionalists. Boo hoo.
I destroy your ability to trust anything I say? So what? As dear old Bob dylan used to sing, Ya had no faith to lose an ya know it. Respect? Who wants respect from mean-minded conformists like you?
@ Eric. No contradiction. Survival of the fittest means of the strongest. Even some emolutionists reject the idea of instant evolution.
Let me spell it out. I'm not a martyr because your NRA-style rages are so predictable.
Bless you all.
Dave Luckett · 22 October 2008
When someone's lost it this completely, there's no possible response other than pity. Get help. Seriously.
Stanton · 22 October 2008
GvlGeologist, FCD · 22 October 2008
Science Avenger · 22 October 2008
eric · 22 October 2008
eric · 22 October 2008
Wow, and I didn't even read SA's post before posting. Great minds think alike. Or maybe Novparl would say we were indoctrinated by the same darwinist brainwashing program :)
Novparl the non-martyr · 22 October 2008
What marvellous putdowns! I must be one bad bandido!
GvlGeologist - if you repeat that someone's a LIAR loudly enough, it must be true. Hey - m'beard's on fire!
An example of belief in instant evolution, now largely rejected I believe, (I believed it long ago) - there were great floods so giraffes grew their necks. Another, also ridiculed, the trees were dying so your ancestors stopped swinging thru them and magically learned to walk.
Eric the Red - I'm not interested in explaining "differential survival" because I don't believe in evolution theology any more than in Christian theology. Evolution, like the resurrection, is a theory, not a fact.
Once again, I'm loving the delicious irony of this site being named for the civilized Prof Gould. Surely it should be "Unweaving the Rainbow" or "Mt Improbable".
Science Avenger · 22 October 2008
Poe!
Richard Simons · 22 October 2008
eric · 22 October 2008
Dale Husband · 24 October 2008
Dale Husband · 24 October 2008
Mrs. · 28 September 2009
Ah but you all are missing the point.
A woman who has c-sections is more limited in her number of offspring because the doctors say so. Less favorable experiences with birth could mean less children. Then women who could have more children with less trauma would be more likely to desire more children. Whether you believe in evolution or what not the large hips small head genes are going to continually get mixed back into the main population. Even if you don't use a gene its still there.
And in the theory of evolution you only change if you have an advantage in changing. With modern medicine we keep many people from dying who should have. We're not evolving this way, we're devolving.
Chelsea · 28 September 2009
C-sections also triple the infant death rate.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1980192/cdc_says_cesarean_triples_neonatal.html?cat=25