Intelligent Design Creationists have given us a number of anniversaries to observe. For example, there's Paul Nelson's long awaited "
omnibus reply" to PZ Myers'
critique of Nelson's "ontogenetic depth" notion,
later amended to version 2.0 (for which we're also still waiting). And of course, there's Nelson's eternally forthcoming monograph
On Common Descent which has been hanging fire for a decade or so.
Now in another recent thread on PT
Mike Elzinga provided a link that reminds me that we missed the anniversary of a prediction from William Dembski that
Wesley Elsberry first noted in 2004. In the
July/August 2004 issue of Touchstone in an article titled
The Measure of Design, Dembski made a bold prediction:
In the next five years, molecular Darwinism--the idea that Darwinian processes can produce complex molecular structures at the subcellular level--will be dead. When that happens, evolutionary biology will experience a crisis of confidence because evolutionary biology hinges on the evolution of the right molecules. I therefore foresee a Taliban-style collapse of Darwinism in the next ten years.
Perhaps by coincidence (or design?) I've just been reading biochemist Nick Lane's
Life Ascending: The Ten Great Inventions of Evolution, recent winner of the 2010 Royal Society Prize for Science books. In particular, Chapters 2 and 3, on the evolution of the genetic code and the evolution of photosynthesis, respectively, emphatically give the lie to Dembski's prediction. As a result, his further prediction seems a little iffy:
I therefore foresee a Taliban-style collapse of Darwinism in the next ten years.
Just four years to wait for that one now. But do try again, Bill. You're already an official contributor to
The Imminent Demise of Evolution: The Longest Running Falsehood in Creationism, and with another failed prediction or two you could be the record holder.
And note that
another Dembski prediction from 1998's
Mere Creation, is also way overdue:
Intelligent design is a fledgling science. Even so, intelligent design is a fledgling of enormous promise. Many books and articles are in the pipeline. I predict that in the next five years intelligent design will be sufficiently developed to deserve funding from the National Science Foundation. (p29)
We're now 12 years downstream from that one. Maybe the
Templeton Foundation's evaluation of ID as a research program has also infected NSF.
104 Comments
tsig · 31 October 2010
Well if you want to go into that pathetic level of detail then maybe they have missed a few anniversaries but it was don intelligently and by design.
tsig · 31 October 2010
Mike Elzinga · 31 October 2010
This seems to be what happens when one resorts to casting Bones of Contention.
Their predictions are no better than those of astrologers. Behe can tell you about that.
Wheels · 1 November 2010
Stuart Weinstein · 1 November 2010
I just started reading Lane's book as well. I'm enjoying it so far.
However, the cover on the paperback edition is unfortunate. It looks like the monkey is boning the anteater from behind. Is that intelligent design?
Midnight Rambler · 1 November 2010
Damn, that's funny; plus the anteater looks like it's "probing" the frog...
386sx · 1 November 2010
A few years ago they didn't realize how wrong they were. Now they know, but they keep chugging along. Creationists can never be wrong about "something was poofed somewhere along the line dang it". They're vaguely right about everything but the arguments aren't in yet. They thought some of the arguments were in, but they all got squashed. But they're still vaguely right somehow. (I'm of course referring to the ones who aren't outright frauds/hucksters etc.)
The Curmudgeon · 1 November 2010
I know how frustrating that must be for Dembski, because I too have a prediction -- well, it's more of an expectation: One day the big money contributors to the Discovery Institute will wake up realize that they've been conned and it's time to shut the joint down. But that never seems to happen, so I'm not a very good prognosticator.
SteveF · 1 November 2010
Wasn't Nelson's On Common Descent book allegedly going to be published as part of the Evolutionary Monographs series edited by Leigh van Valen? Given that van Valen died recently, it would seem even more unlikely that this will ever happen.
truthspeaker · 1 November 2010
And the Taliban haven't exactly collapsed either. Not only did his prediction fail, his analogy did as well.
Ron Okimoto · 1 November 2010
The ID movement turned into a Taliban bowel movement. All they are stuck with doing is remote detinating their car bombs. They also have some true believers willing to go for the suicide attacks (I think Luskin went to Florida to run the bait and switch on the Florida rubes that wanted to teach the science of intelligent design a couple of years ago), but the ID perps are too incomptent to successfully martyr themselves. Luskin should have at least been tarred and feathered in Florida, but all he likely got was a raise. No virgins, valhalla or whatever for him.
Otto J. Mäkelä · 1 November 2010
G. R. Morton (of Morton's Demon fame) has a long-standing page The Imminent Demise of Evolution: The Longest Running Falsehood in Creationism.
Doc Bill · 1 November 2010
You guys are so mean to Paul Nelson! Just think how far behind he would be if he actually had a job and worked for a living! Cut the guy some slack, OK?
John Kwok · 1 November 2010
John Kwok · 1 November 2010
Aagcobb · 1 November 2010
Daniel J. Andrews · 1 November 2010
Hadn't realized this was Morton of Morton's demon. I see his predictions are pretty iffy too. In April he said cosmic ray flux hit an all-time high so therefore, more clouds which will result in a cooling earth: Just in time for a series of the hottest 12-month periods on record from May to September (May09-May10, June09-June10 etc). Seldom does a prediction fail on such a spectacular level.
Maybe he's changed now, but up to April his demon was still pretty busy. Because of his blindness in that area, I'd want to double-check references/sources for anything else he's written no matter how much I agree with it.
--dan
SWT · 1 November 2010
Karen S. · 1 November 2010
Another tactic of the ID creationist is to declare that neo-Darwinism is already dead. (Somehow working scientists missed this fact and weren't even invited to the funeral.)
The name Lynn Margulis is bandied about in this context, as well as the "Atenberg 16". The purpose is to make us believe that the growth and development of evolutionary theory somehow props up ID. But then again, when the host eats the parasite gets fatter.
I also want to mention how grateful I am when scientists from PT visit BioLogos and offer their much-needed input. Often their leadership posts and runs, leaving the creationists to have a field day. Sanity checks are often lacking.
John Kwok · 1 November 2010
Flint · 1 November 2010
Uh, I suppose it's pretty obvious to everyone that the DI's predictions are no such thing. They are public relations, claims made to create the desired (false) impressions in the target audience at the time they are made. They have nothing to do with any future events. The DI will say anything they think people want to hear, which is their Official Position only until the next time they say anything.
I think their goal is to expand that population that (as Lincoln observed) they can fool all of the time. But it doesn't hurt to keep stroking those who are permanently pre-fooled. The "death of evolution" still sells, and announcing or predicting it still gets those juices flowing. These pronouncements aren't predictions, they are refresh cycles.
Henry J · 1 November 2010
jasonmitchell · 1 November 2010
Paul Burnett · 1 November 2010
The quote from Charles L. Harper Jr., senior vice president at the Templeton Foundation, should be framed and hung on the wall: "From the point of view of rigor and intellectual seriousness, the intelligent design people don't come out very well in our world of scientific review." (And that's from a December 2005 news article...nothing's changed since.)
raven · 1 November 2010
John Kwok · 1 November 2010
Karen S. · 1 November 2010
eric · 1 November 2010
Les Lane · 1 November 2010
harold · 1 November 2010
Although these predictions haven't come true, the DI does seem to have achieved its applied goals.
There are few or no barriers to entry in the lucrative creationism industry, but the undeniable fact is that circa 1995, just as the new medium of internet was coming into its own, the market was dominated by the old blue chip firms like ICR, which had established themselves in the 1960's. (In fact, years ago in a university library basement, I saw a book published in the 1950's, with an author from a seminary in Nebraska, and it already contained many of the standard "creation science" argument - the author claimed the 100th anniversary of Origin of Species as a motivation - I didn't know enough to take it seriously at the time.)
Anyone can write a copycat book going on about the second law of thermodynamics and dust on the moon, and many do, but to capture market share from the established players, some new bafflegab was needed.
After twenty to thirty years of stasis, and after a decade of surly relative silence due to the lawsuits of the seventies and eighties, the DI produced some slightly different bafflegab, and doing so paid off handsomely.
At this point, "ID" arguments have been accepted by creationists as unqualified creationist arguments. The same person who argues that there are "no transitional fossils" or mentions "Piltdown Man" is likey to make reference to "irreducible complexity".
Now, I offer a prediction, but in the form of an "If...then..." statement.
If evolution deniers come up with some relatively original bafflegab again, THEN the US media will go through a spasm of touting it as "ground breaking", claiming that the theory of evolution has been "seriously challenged", and accusing skeptical, rational scientists of being "hidebound dogmatists".
Aagcobb · 1 November 2010
Karen S. · 1 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 1 November 2010
John Kwok · 1 November 2010
jasonmitchell · 1 November 2010
Les Lane · 1 November 2010
Dembski prediction quantitated
RBH · 1 November 2010
Henry J · 1 November 2010
Henry J · 1 November 2010
Books? Articles?
Never mind the books and articles; have them just start by describing the consistently observed pattern of evidence that your "hypothesis" is purported to explain, and then explaining the (fallacy-free) deductive logic by which the observed patterns follow from the hypothesis. That much would get them to the starting gate.
Or is that asking too much?
Glen Davidson · 1 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 1 November 2010
Matt G · 1 November 2010
John Kwok · 1 November 2010
Droopy · 2 November 2010
What is a "Darwinian-process"?
What is Darwinism?
MichaelJ · 2 November 2010
Note that most, if not all of the predictions were made pre-Dover. Since then there has been no real progress. Has there been a new face in the ID pack since then?
The number of books and papers produced each year gets less. It is late 2010 and there hasn't been a book since "Signature in the Cell". Dembski seems to publish the same paper over and over again.
Luckily for them most of these guys have day jobs and the church talk circuit must bring in some money. I wonder how people like Paul Nelson who doesn't seem to have any means of support survive.
Dave Luckett · 2 November 2010
Droopy, A Darwinian process can be taken to mean small variability over successive generations of living things, attended by selection of the variations by the relative reproductive success of the progeny in the natural environment.
I think it is legitimate enough to call that process "Darwinian" because Charles Darwin first described it in detail, in publication. Alfred Russell Wallace deserves equal credit for the inspiration.
Hence, "Darwinism" need not mean more than the idea that such a process takes place and accounts for the diversity of living things. However, "Darwinism" has been used by the creationist noise machine to mean the same thing as "atheism" or "materialism". This is not only wrong, it misconstrues Darwin's theory as a political or philosophical idea, which it is not.
The word "Darwinism" is therefore best avoided, not because it is intrinsically wrong, but because it carries irrelevant and erroneous connotations that are exploited by shysters and con merchants.
NoNick · 2 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 2 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 2 November 2010
Karen S. · 2 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 2 November 2010
Paul Burnett · 2 November 2010
eric · 2 November 2010
RBH · 2 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 2 November 2010
eric · 2 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 2 November 2010
Joe Felsenstein · 2 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 2 November 2010
Joe Felsenstein · 2 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 2 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 2 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 2 November 2010
By the way; if anyone doubt’s that there are still conflations among entropy, information, and disorder, as well as the continued misuse of the laws of thermodynamics that led to Dembski’s stuff, take a look at today’s latest AiG “warnings” about misuse of the second law of thermodynamics.
Then take a look at the link offered in footnote 2 in which one is advised to use thermodynamics arguments carefully and then pointed to this “more advanced” perspective.
I'm probably one of the few old geezers left who is thoroughly familiar with this conceptual link between Morris and Dembski. But I would suggest that it is important to understand. A lot of peripheral damage has been done by this meme.
Mike Elzinga · 2 November 2010
Well, by coincidence, here is another generic misconception about “information” that relates to this conversation.
I guess halloween is not over yet.
The MadPanda, FCD · 2 November 2010
John Kwok · 2 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 2 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 3 November 2010
DS · 3 November 2010
Ron wrote:
"I wonder how long the list of arguments to never use would be if someone went back through their old web pages and looked them up? Likely at least twice as long as the current list. Just think how many arguments the honest creationists want to add to the list."
Well first of all, I'm sure that the list of "honest creationists" is much shorter than the list of debunked arguments. Second of all, if "honest creationists" did create such a list, it would include all arguments ever used by creationists.
What these yahoos should be doing is trying to come up with an alternative explanation for all of the evidence that has better predictive and explanatory power than the e=theory of evolution. That is the only thing that is going to convince any scientist and it is the only thing that should convince anyone. Now you can't do that by ignoring the evidence. You can't do that by hoping that people are ignorant of the evidence. And you can't do that by refusing to propose any alternative.
Arguments against evolution can only fool those who are ignorant enough to fall for them. That's why the Talk Origins archive is such a valuable resource. At the very least, creationists have to admit that they don't have any original ideas, since all of the arguments they use have already been debunked.
John Kwok · 3 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 3 November 2010
Karen S. · 3 November 2010
Now remember folks, that in pure ID theory, the designer is not necessarily supernatural! He's just some guy who's been alive for over 13 billion years. ID is not necessarily religious at all!
John Kwok · 3 November 2010
John Kwok · 3 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 4 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 4 November 2010
386sx · 4 November 2010
“Freud, Marx, and Darwin were all revered as major scientific heroes throughout the twentieth century. Of the three, only Darwin retains any scientific standing.” --Philip Johnson
Gotta love that. Bubbles, Bozo, Darwin. Of the three, only Darwin retains not being a clown yet. Hitler, Hitler, Darwin. Of the three, only Darwin retains not being Hitler yet.
Karen S. · 4 November 2010
John Kwok · 4 November 2010
John Kwok · 4 November 2010
On a more serious note, Philip Johnson is the "GODFATHER" of the Intelligent Design movement. The Dishonesty Institute's Center for (the Renewal of) Science and Culture couldn't remove him as an advisor as much as a diehard Communist couldn't reject Marx and Lenin as the intellectual "fathers" of Communism. What would good God-fearing Christian people think of the Dishonesty Institute repudiated its "GODFATHER"? Heaven forbid.
Henry J · 4 November 2010
John Kwok · 4 November 2010
W. H. Heydt · 4 November 2010
eric · 4 November 2010
JoeBuddha · 4 November 2010
Karen S. · 4 November 2010
John Kwok · 4 November 2010
The MadPanda, FCD · 4 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 4 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 4 November 2010
W. H. Heydt · 4 November 2010
Karen S. · 4 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 4 November 2010
John Kwok · 4 November 2010
John Kwok · 4 November 2010
John Kwok · 4 November 2010
John Kwok · 4 November 2010
Mike Elzinga · 4 November 2010
Stanton · 4 November 2010
Ron Okimoto · 5 November 2010
John Kwok · 5 November 2010
John Kwok · 5 November 2010
I hated the last "Star Trek" film merely because they played too fast and too loose with the well-established canon. Wished Warner Brothers might opt to revive "Babylon 5", though since several of the original cast have died, I strongly doubt it would be the same show (or cinematic adaptation).
John Kwok · 5 November 2010
JoeBuddha · 8 November 2010