
Today a paper came out that should get special attention from evolutionary biologists, evolution educators, and creationism fighters. It is:
Cook, L. M.; Grant, B. S.; Saccheri, I. J.; Mallet, J. (2012). "Selective bird predation on the peppered moth: the last experiment of Michael Majerus." Biology Letters, Published online before print February 8, 2012. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2011.1136. Abstract at Journal, Supplementary Online Material.
Abstract
Colour variation in the peppered moth Biston betularia was long accepted to be under strong natural selection. Melanics were believed to be fitter than pale morphs because of lower predation at daytime resting sites on dark, sooty bark. Melanics became common during the industrial revolution, but since 1970 there has been a rapid reversal, assumed to have been caused by predators selecting against melanics resting on today's less sooty bark. Recently, these classical explanations of melanism were attacked, and there has been general scepticism about birds as selective agents. Experiments and observations were accordingly carried out by Michael Majerus to address perceived weaknesses of earlier work. Unfortunately, he did not live to publish the results, which are analysed and presented here by the authors. Majerus released 4864 moths in his six-year experiment, the largest ever attempted for any similar study. There was strong differential bird predation against melanic peppered moths. Daily selection against melanics (s ≃ 0.1) was sufficient in magnitude and direction to explain the recent rapid decline of melanism in post-industrial Britain. These data provide the most direct evidence yet to implicate camouflage and bird predation as the overriding explanation for the rise and fall of melanism in moths.
As long-time readers of Panda's Thumb know, I've had an axe to grind about the peppered moth case since the beginning of my serious involvement with creationism-fighting. Back in 2002 I wrote a
long review of Jonathan Wells's creationism/ID book
Icons of Evolution for
Talkorigins.org. Wells's strategy was very clever; rather than attacking the science of evolution head-on, he attacked high school biology textbooks. He engaged in a delicate dance of selective citation and quote-mining so as to make it appear that the criticisms of standard textbook examples used to introduce various evolutionary concepts were coming from scientists.
Since everyone, including scientists and science journalists, "knows" that introductory textbooks have problems, more than a few people reacted to Wells's book with the defensive reaction "well, sure, textbooks have problems, but the science of evolution is well-supported". However, this was giving away the game, because (a) Wells's attacks, read carefully, were actually aimed at the credibility of the science of evolutionary biology and evolutionary biologists, and (b) his attacks were tendentious, question-begging, and most importantly based on an amazingly selective and misleading review of the evidence and the scientific community on each question.
One Wells chapter that was particularly annoying was on peppered moths. Everyone remembers something vague from high school biology about moths sitting on tree trunks and birds eating the ones that were the wrong color. In 1998, a leading peppered moth researcher, Michael Majerus from Cambridge, published a book called
Melanism which included two long chapters reviewing scientific study of the peppered moth from the initial studies by Bernard Kettlewell in the 1950s through Majerus's own work. One message of the chapters was that textbook accounts were oversimplified and that the full story was much more interesting. For example, Majerus presented field observations which indicated that peppered moths rest not just on tree trunks but also on tree branches. But the other message of the chapters was that Kettlewell's basic hypothesis -- that bird predation on moths had caused the shift in peppered moth color from light to dark and back again, through differential predation based on camouflage -- was correct and confirmed by the work that had happened since Kettlewell's initial studies, despite various criticisms of the details of some of his experiments.
The story of what happened after Majerus's book came out is complex and bizarre and is briefly reviewed in
Supplement 1 of Cook et al., entitled "A brief history of the peppered moth debacle." The short version is that
Jerry Coyne wrote a prominent review of the book in Nature, which concluded -- somehow -- that the peppered moth research was all highly questionable. Coyne was and is a prominent and respected evolutionary biologist, and his debunkings of pop-ev psych, creationism, etc. are often of high quality -- but there is no way to avoid the conclusion that Coyne must have had an off-day, and his review of Majerus was uncareful and made many mistakes. For example, Coyne wrote:
Criticisms of this story have circulated in samizdat for several years, but Majerus summarizes them for the first time in print in an absorbing two-chapter critique (coincidentally, a similar analysis [Sargent et al., Evol. Biol. 30, 299-322; 1998] has just appeared). Majerus notes that the most serious problem is that B. betularia probably does not rest on tree trunks -- exactly two moths have been seen in such a position in more than 40 years of intensive search. The natural resting spots are, in fact, a mystery. This alone invalidates Kettlewell's release-recapture experiments, as moths were released by placing them directly onto tree trunks, where they are highly visible to bird predators.
The only problems with this are that:
(a) Majerus himself, right there in
Melanism, presented data showing that moths rested on trunks or trunk/branch joints in 32/47 moths Majerus had personally observed undisturbed in the wild, and 136/203 moths observed resting near light traps. Furthermore, Majerus's photographs contained several unstaged photos, taken by him, of moths discovered in various natural positions, including on tree trunks.
(b) Birds that hunt on tree trunks are not somehow magically blocked from hunting on tree branches, and lichens are known to grow not just on tree trunks, but also on tree branches. Air pollution and soot, which darken trees both by killing lichens and by physically blackening surfaces (many critiques of the peppered moth example ignore that both processes happen), also manage to get to both places. (An aside -- people forget what air pollution was like in 1950s England and before. Think Dickens. Black soot would fall out of the sky. That's where the term "fallout" comes from, I believe. Sometimes the audience at the back of an opera house could not see the stage at the front. The death rate would spike on bad air days. Etc. This was not a subtle environmental change.)
(c) Not all of Kettlewell's experiments relied solely on placing moths only on tree trunks. In fact it was Kettlewell himself who first noted in the 1950s that the moths also like branches, some of his experiments let the moths find their own resting spots.
(d) Sargent et al.'s review, which clearly influenced Coyne more than Majerus's actual book, was on the phenomenon of melanism in moths in general -- which likely does have diverse causes -- and many of its criticisms did not apply to the specific case of the peppered moth. And as it turned out, Sargent and his coauthors had some very weird Lamarkian and anti-Modern-Synthesis views that have been aired in other venues.
Coyne added a few other choice quotes which rang around the world:
Depressingly, Majerus shows that this classic example is in bad shape, and, while not yet ready for the glue factory, needs serious attention.
[...]
Majerus concludes, reasonably, that all we can deduce from this story is that it is a case of rapid evolution, probably involving pollution and bird predation. I would, however, replace "probably" with "perhaps". B. betularia shows the footprint of natural selection, but we have not yet seen the feet. Majerus finds some solace in his analysis, claiming that the true story is likely to be more complex and therefore more interesting, but one senses that he is making a virtue of necessity. My own reaction resembles the dismay attending my discovery, at the age of six, that it was my father and not Santa who brought the presents on Christmas Eve.
[...]
What can one make of all this? Majerus concludes with the usual call for more research, but several lessons are already at hand. First, for the time being we must discard Biston as a well-understood example of natural selection in action, although it is clearly a case of evolution.
Majerus and other peppered moth researchers were dismayed by Coyne's review, and said so in various fora, but none of this attracted anything like the attention that Coyne's review received, particularly when it was amplified by journalists and creationists. By the early 2000s, Wells and other creationists, and even some benighted journalists such as Judith Hooper, were alleging not just that the Kettlewell work was mistaken, but that it was fraud. Soon the peppered moth was disappearing from textbooks. The whole phenomenon was bizarre if one paid attention to the actual research literature by the actual people who had done fieldwork and experiments by peppered moths, e.g. Majerus himself, Cook, Bruce Grant, etc. Cook et al. write:
The attacks on the classic peppered moth story were promulgated
almost entirely by people who never studied the peppered moth
themselves. It is notable that no new fieldwork had ever been done that
disproved the classical explanation.
There is more that could be said about the details of the criticisms leveled against Kettlewell and the peppered moth work over the years, but this would take a published article to sort out. It suffices to say that many of the criticisms contradicted other criticisms, most or all "alternative explanations", even on the rare occasions when a critic bothered to propose one, could not explain how peppered moth color changed from light to dark
and then back to light again, and many of the criticisms were obviously armchair "in the bad way" of assuming things that would be obviously wrong to anyone who went out to the field and looked at the relevant forests a bit. (I realized this when I looked at the forests around Cambridge -- forests of relatively small and short British hardwoods are rather different than forests on the West Coast of the U.S. Trunk versus canopy is a huge difference in a redwood forest, but literally a matter of an arms length and a second or two of flying for a moth or bird in an English forest.)
All in all, I feel that
my assessment of the peppered moth work as of 2002 was right on, and has been confirmed by subsequent developments.
However, a fantastic feature of science is that even overwrought and unreasonable criticisms can benefit knowledge and science in the end, because they aggravate scientists enough to spur them to gather more data. To this end, Majerus conducted experiments and observations on peppered moths for seven summers from 2001-2007, and did it while deliberately avoiding the criticisms that had been leveled at previous experiments -- Majerus's moths were at low density, in natural resting positions, etc. And the result? The selection coefficient against dark moths was statistically significant and approximately 0.1. This is a huge value (huge in that much smaller selection coefficients can easily be relevant in population genetics), of the same order of magnitude and direction estimated in previous work, and sufficient and adequate to explain the change in frequency of the dark morph of the peppered moth, which dropped from 12% to 1% over the course of the study, continuing the trend which had been observed ever since the clean-air laws went into effect in the 1950s. As an aside, we are very lucky that Majerus did this work when he did, since (as the classical explanation predicted), the dark morph is now almost extinct.
Majerus's data were in by 2007 and he released the results in various talks and in an online article on his website, and reviewed the work in a
2008 article in
Evolution: Education and Outreach. Jerry Coyne, to his great credit,
went on the air with Majerus in a radio interview and announced that Majerus's new work had convinced him.
The only step left would have been for Majerus to formally publish the results in a peer-reviewed journal, but Majerus unexpectedly and shockingly
died of a rare illness in 2009. Such an event causes chaos for a researcher's family and laboratory, and I was beginning to worry that Majerus's final experiment would never be published, and thus we would be subjected to endless cycles of rehashing of the same old half-baked arguments from creationists and the like for decades to come, each time someone rediscovered the charges of scandal and fraud from the late 1990s and early 2000s. Fortunately, however, a group of Majerus's former colleagues assembled his results and methods and conducted a new statistical analysis, which resulted in the Cook et al. paper.
Whether or not this means that peppered moths will go back into the textbooks is, perhaps, not the most important question. The most important question is getting the science correct and then conforming our beliefs and confidence to whatever the best evidence says. And the science is continuing -- researchers have recently identified (
van't Hof et al. 2011) the region of the moth genome responsible for producing the melanism trait, and presumably it is just a matter of time before we know the mutation(s) responsible for producing the trait. Interestingly, Majerus (1998) argued that the evidence argued for a single origin of melanism in British peppered moths. In this he was disagreeing with Kettlewell, who argued that melanism was a "recurring necessity" that had come and gone with climate change and the like (e.g., cryptic moths in general tend to be darker in wetter regions, probably because water darkens surfaces and cloud cover reduces the amount of light on surfaces). Hopefully soon, molecular work will reveal whether or not Majerus was as correct about this as he was about other things. (Note:
van't Hof et al. 2011 already conclude this based on the linkage disequilibrium pattern they observe in the moth chromosomes, but I believe they haven't drilled down to the specific mutation in the sequence which is responsible.)
But I have to confess that I have a soft spot for the moths and for their place in the textbooks. It is true, as is often said, that we now have many good examples of natural selection in action. So we don't need the moths. However, that argument only has a point if you have some residual reason to doubt the quality of the evidence in the peppered moth case, probably because you "heard somewhere" that it was in doubt. Hopefully a careful review of the published research, and not second-hand armchair sources, would convince any reasonable observer that the science is perfectly decent in the case of the peppered moth. Once that conclusion is accepted, the peppered moth story lends itself to classroom use for many reasons: the evolutionary change is obvious and visual. The mechanism of bird predation, and the resulting adaptation of camouflage, is easy to understand and gives students a crucial link between the statistical action of natural selection, and the production of adaptations that "seem designed" to naive observers. And the change was the unintentional byproduct of human activity -- air pollution, and furthermore the change back was due to legislation which reduced air pollution. And the change in the peppered moths back to their original peppered state was an evolutionary prediction made by Kettlewell and subsequent researchers, and which was dramatically confirmed.
Finally, the whole snafu over the peppered moth science, and the subsequent resolution of the controversy, first by review of already published work by moth researchers, and confirmed by the additional research by Majerus, is itself an excellent example of how science can succeed even in spite of the mistakes all humans and scientists make, and in spite of the difficulties imposed by inadequate journalism, pseudoscientific propaganda like creationism, etc. Since the oversimplification of the peppered moth story in textbooks originally led to some of the backlash, surely it would be fitting to make the practice of science, in all its complexity, accessible to students today, in the form of the peppered moth example along with the history of the rise, and fall, and rise of the peppered moth.
134 Comments
harold · 8 February 2012
co · 8 February 2012
Very nice write-up, Nick, and -- as you say -- a brilliant illustration of how the truth will out.
Mike Elzinga · 8 February 2012
One of the nastiest tricks of the ID/creationists, ever since Morris and Gish started hounding scientists and teachers, is their grotesque misrepresentations of not only scientific concepts but of the process of science itself.
We in the physics community have been trying to clean up the mess they created with entropy and the second law for decades; but ID/creationist memes spread rapidly; and these memes get picked up unwittingly by the media and even by well-meaning popularizers of science.
But worse, as the science community cleans up the mess, ID/creationists are right there taking credit for “spurring on scientists to clean up their dirty act.” These ID/creationist jerks are just plain infuriating in the contorted games they play.
If the peppered moths – or any other demonstrative research suitable for introductory biology textbooks – returns to the textbooks, I hope that the textbook writers and teachers can clearly distinguish between the roles scientists played in firming up the research and the confusion generated by opportunistic charlatans attempting to hitch a ride on the backs of those scientists.
Nick Matzke · 8 February 2012
DS · 8 February 2012
Whether textbook publishers put this into the textbooks or not, all biology teachers can still include it in their lesson plans. And of course we now have a new reference to cite and use for data. If anyone objects you can just have them read the paper.
It doesn't matter what crap creationists try to pull, or what pressure they put on publishers. Reality will trump spin every time. Eventually.
Thanks to Nick for the heads up.
SteveP. · 8 February 2012
Actually, the peppered moth issue is good for ID in the long-run. It cements NS as a maintenance junkie, rather than a building contractor.
So if Nick Matzke is content with not searching for any 'tantalizing hints' that the peppered moth is capable of more than a simple light/dark oscillation, then hey great, white to black and back again to white it is!
Mike Elzinga · 8 February 2012
DS · 8 February 2012
It's still just a moth!
apokryltaros · 8 February 2012
apokryltaros · 8 February 2012
Michael R · 9 February 2012
Apart from the results of Majerus' research, the main thing which comes out of the ID/YEC criticism of peppered moths is their blatant lying over so many issues, accusing Kettlewell of fraud etc.
It is one of the best examples of ID/YEC dishonesty, which is easily documented. I have used it to get creationists running as there is never such a good lie as a detailed one.
harold · 9 February 2012
Rolf · 9 February 2012
There ought to be a certificate of ignorance issued to the ignorati. Steve P. merits the AAA+ rating.
https://me.yahoo.com/a/57vt.Vh1yeasb_9YKQq4GyYNFhAbTpY-#b1375 · 9 February 2012
Only a delusional moron like Steve P. can make such a risible conclusion. Even if Steve P. was right, ID has not offered a compelling hypothesis confirmed by subsequent rigorous scientific testing unlike, for example, the work done by Majerus.
Steve P., I am willing to bet that your friends and business associates in the Taiwanese textile market know a lot more about biology and REAL SCIENCE like evolutionary biology than you. Maybe if you opted to learn from them then you wouldn't be the mendacious troll who enjoys "driving by" here at Panda's Thumb. I strongly second Rolf's most astute observation that you deserve an AAA+ rated certificate of ignorance, though with a notation that your ignorance is one replete in its mendacity.
Anyway, my thanks to Nick Matzke for yet another superb essay.
Kevin B · 9 February 2012
co · 9 February 2012
Just Bob · 9 February 2012
I'd go with Orwell's Newspeak. Steve P. would rate ungood. FL, IBIG or Byers are at least plusungood, while the likes of Ham must be doubleplusungood.
Jim · 9 February 2012
ID and Creationist propagandists will never stop using the peppered moth bit, anymore than climate change denialists will ever stop claiming that the famous emails revealed unholy doings. Thing is, when your message is targeted at low information folks, evidence and logic are unimportant. Repetition of an attack creates an association of ideas that produces the desired effect: ringing a bell is not an argument in favor of salivating but it makes the juices flow. The recipient of the message is proud of himself for his familiarity with the notion and this suffices to reinforce the lesson. After all, at the popular level of mental functioning there is little awareness of the difference between being acquainted with something and knowing about it. Good luck getting people who think you're the enemy to invest the effort required to actually understand an issue that requires as many as three sentences to convey.
Marilyn · 9 February 2012
So you would have to take into consideration the eye sight of the bird and that the bird doesn’t feel the need to evolve to accommodate both colours also it's possible taste could come into the equation.
Dave Lovell · 9 February 2012
Flint · 9 February 2012
harold · 9 February 2012
ksplawn · 9 February 2012
Mike Elzinga · 9 February 2012
Mike Elzinga · 9 February 2012
https://me.yahoo.com/a/57vt.Vh1yeasb_9YKQq4GyYNFhAbTpY-#b1375 · 9 February 2012
DavidK · 9 February 2012
Flint · 9 February 2012
Yeah, as I've been saying for some time now, the way things come true in religionland is to SAY they're true. If you say it twice, it becomes twice as true. If people believe you, you have a new cult. This cult will honor your claims until it expires (if it does). But expiration doesn't make your claim false, because nothing can do that. The Word is all.
I think it's important to realize that creationists cannot conceive of any other way. So they think scientific claims become true because some scientist SAID SO. If you attack Darwin's character, you are necessarily attacking evolution, because it was Darwin who spoke the Word that made evolution True. And if they don't like the scientific understanding of evolution, the solution is to SAY it's something different, and attack that. Saying so MAKES it so. That's how religion works.
I'm pretty well convinced that creationists never gtive an accurate description of a scientific concept or process because they simply cannot think it. It flat doesn't fit anywhere in their mental model. And their mental model isn't just a "fixer upper", it's an edifice that needs to be burned, bulldozed, and sterilized. Not gonna happen.
Marilyn · 9 February 2012
Karen S. · 9 February 2012
Henry J · 9 February 2012
bigdakine · 9 February 2012
https://me.yahoo.com/a/57vt.Vh1yeasb_9YKQq4GyYNFhAbTpY-#b1375 · 9 February 2012
MosesZD · 9 February 2012
Dave Lovell · 9 February 2012
QED · 9 February 2012
You know, as a long-time lurker, I understand the necessity of deflating creationist incredulity and ignorance for lurkers' sake. I've suffered through endless attacks on real science by clueless religious extremists here, always in response to articles concerning legitimate science. But, for love of Dog, for all lurkers that have suffered long enough, send these knuckle-draggers to the Bathroom Wall before the threads are hopelessly derailed. This isn't a prayer group. Isn't a Christian hook-up site. I don't need a Christian soulmate or sex-worker. I'm here for the science. We all are.
Dave Luckett · 9 February 2012
No, Marilyn. We're not saying that. But it's plain that whatever we say, you will either genuinely not get it, or else will deliberately misconstrue it. It would be difficult to come up with a more grotesque distortion than your last comment.
But I'll try to explain once more.
Any living species will adapt to a changing environment, because all living things reproduce with variation. This must mean - it can't not mean - that each of the offspring will do better or worse according to how well its variations fit the changing environment. The ones that do better are more likely to survive and succeed in reproducing themselves. This is a probability, not an absolute rule, but a probability is enough.
Living things also pass their characteristics on to their offspring. So successful variations are more likely to be preserved. More and more offspring display them. Over generations, successful variations spread throughout the breeding population.
But environments change over time, and they aren't fixed in any other way either. Any change to part of the environment, in any way, provides advantages and disadvantages to one or another set of variations. So that set is selected for, or selected against, in dealing with that change, but other sets of variations are selected for, or against, elsewhere or in other ways. So the characteristics of populations diverge from each other, over generations. If that process goes on long enough, the populations become different species.
That's evolution. It doesn't have anything to do with what God sets in motion. Changes to environment can be caused by what man sets in motion, as the peppered moth studies show, or anything that changes the environment in any way. If it changes the environment in any way, living things will evolve to fit it. They must. They can't not.
It does have something to do with mate selection - that's called "sexual selection" and it has been understood, pretty much, for well over a hundred years. There seems to be an inbuilt tendency in living things to select mates who seem to be doing the best, to be in the most robust health, to be strong, or showy, or prolific or whatever. But there is no decision to evolve.
This is a sixth-grader's understanding of evolution. It's not as detailed or as specific as what Charles Darwin wrote over a century and a half ago. This is boiled down as much as I can, and plenty of people here will tell you it's oversimplified. So it is.
Remember the Rabbi Gamaliel? Someone asked him to explain the Law while standing on one foot. The Rabbi told him: "Whatever is hateful to you, do not do to another. That is the whole of the Law. The rest is commentary. Now go and study."
Go and study, Marilyn.
DS · 9 February 2012
DS · 9 February 2012
harold · 9 February 2012
Just Bob · 9 February 2012
Hmm, I would venture a guess that the great majority of people who manage to light themselves on fire also manage to extinguish that fire before the results are fatal; and that the majority of non-fatal personal conflagrations could be classified as "minor", causing slight or no permanent damage.
My point is that most cases of lighting oneself on fire are cured or successfully recovered from. I wonder how that high percentage of recovery compares to the recovery rate of being afflicted with (or afflicting oneself with) creationism.
A close personal encounter with fire, while terrifying, is most likely to be survived and completely recovered from. Creationism is likely to plague one for his whole life.
Joe Felsenstein · 10 February 2012
harold · 10 February 2012
DS · 10 February 2012
SteveP. · 10 February 2012
gmartincv · 10 February 2012
This morning Jerry Coyne, over on his blog Why Evolution s True, discussed the Cook et. al. paper on Majerus's data. In the concluding section Coyne says "I am delighted to agree with this conclusion, which answers my previous criticisms about the Biston story".
George
Marilyn · 10 February 2012
https://me.yahoo.com/a/57vt.Vh1yeasb_9YKQq4GyYNFhAbTpY-#b1375 · 10 February 2012
Nick Matzke · 10 February 2012
Nick Matzke · 10 February 2012
dalehusband · 10 February 2012
Just Bob · 10 February 2012
JimNorth · 10 February 2012
So, bottom line...if we want to prevent the extinction of the melanistic mutation of peppered moths, we need to relax air pollution controls...
phhht · 10 February 2012
prongs · 10 February 2012
Joe Felsenstein · 10 February 2012
After reading SteveP.'s lengthy quote from the first edition of Icons of Evolution and Nick Matzke's quotes from Wells's other earlier writings, I conclude that in that edition
* Wells charges all sorts of people with fraud, usually without justification, but
* He didn't happen to actually charge Kettlewell with fraud.
So I suppose it was Hooper who first charged Kettlewell with fraud.
Majerus and many other workers seem to have established good evidence for differential predation as the mechanism for change of frequencies of melanic peppered moths. The issue of whether the moths spend little, a moderate amount, or all their time resting on tree trunks (as opposed to under smaller branches) is a side issue. It is inflated into a Big Deal by Wells and Co.
This is much like the issue of whether Dawkins's Weasel program has the property of "latching". By asserting that it does, his critics make the reader think that this must be the reason why it searches so much more effectively than blind random search (monkeys-with-typewriters). And it encourages them think that without that property it would not search effectively. But in fact (a) latching makes little difference, and (b) anyway Dawkin's program actually does not "latch" at all. Tree trunks are the equivalent of "latching" -- an irrelevant diversion that sounds important but isn't.
Mike Elzinga · 10 February 2012
SteveP. · 10 February 2012
Mike Elzinga · 10 February 2012
apokryltaros · 10 February 2012
apokryltaros · 10 February 2012
Dave Luckett · 10 February 2012
SteveP's argument is that birds hunt and have keen eyes, so therefore camouflage is useless against them.
Idiotic.
SteveP. · 10 February 2012
Right back at you Mike.
Why don't you leave off the cultural warrior crap for a change and speak to the issues.
The experiments did not establish beyond doubt that the color of the moths allowed for bird's easy pickings, which in turn increased the number of black moths.
Nick's comment just makes the problem worse by pointing out bird's hunting capabilities (with my added comment that it is well known birds have keen eyesight), which suggests moth color would not cause a spike in moth kills. Because that is what you would need, a spike; not a 'significant' increase.
Mike Elzinga · 10 February 2012
Mike Elzinga · 10 February 2012
DS · 10 February 2012
Steve just doesn't get it. It doesn't matter if the birds are solely responsible for the changes in allele frequency or not, by definition, this is evolution in action. All he can muster is insinuation and innuendo. He would rather quote dishonest charlatans than actually learn any real science. How typical of creationists.
apokryltaros · 10 February 2012
apokryltaros · 10 February 2012
SteveP. · 10 February 2012
Dave Luckett · 10 February 2012
Oh. So cause and effect have to be completely separate, in the SteveP Universe. Emergent effects never arise, and it isn't possible for these effects to be subject to feedback.
There was no "trigger". Your inability to think except in terms of faulty analogy is painfully obvious. Turn the amplifier up as much as you like. If it's loud enough, you won't have to think at all.
Scott F · 10 February 2012
ignorance"wonder of life". Instead they get their colors from "physics and chemistry". Surely your "Intelligent Design" should be able to identify the mechanism. Right? Right?? Or perhaps, like your ID hero Dembski, you don't sink to that "pathetic level of detail"?unkle.hank · 10 February 2012
Flint · 10 February 2012
As has been agreed several times here, no creationist has ever found fault with an accurate representation of the scientific theory. It's always with some silly misrepresentation. The question is whether they willingly and deliberately distort the theory for their purposes, or whether they are mentally no longer capable of grasping (or never were capable of grasping) a notion even "so mindbogglingly simple that it is taught to children as young as 9 or 10".
I'm more and more leaning toward the latter. Piaget spoke of assimilation (making new information fit existing models) and accommodation (altering existing models to fit new information). Creationists' understanding of evolution is so wildly incorrect that the scope of change required for accommodation is simply no longer possible. It not only requires a blank-slate, ground-up reformulation of the model, it requires suspension of the religious delusions that distorted the model in the first place. Not likely to happen.
And this means that they simply cannot see even something that simple, even if they tried - and an important part of their model says that making the effort is forbidden anyway.
Mike Elzinga · 11 February 2012
unkle.hank · 11 February 2012
apokryltaros · 11 February 2012
apokryltaros · 11 February 2012
unkle.hank · 11 February 2012
apokryltaros · 11 February 2012
dalehusband · 11 February 2012
Marilyn · 11 February 2012
Marilyn · 11 February 2012
DS · 11 February 2012
Steve can turn up his amplifier all he wants to, he's just trying to turn off reality. We on the other hand can choose to tune him out completely.
As for Marilyn, she seems to be as hopelessly lost in magical thinking as Steve. PErhaps she will attempt to learn some science some day. Maybe not.
https://me.yahoo.com/a/57vt.Vh1yeasb_9YKQq4GyYNFhAbTpY-#b1375 · 11 February 2012
https://me.yahoo.com/a/57vt.Vh1yeasb_9YKQq4GyYNFhAbTpY-#b1375 · 11 February 2012
Paul Burnett · 11 February 2012
Helena Constantine · 11 February 2012
harold · 11 February 2012
ksplawn · 11 February 2012
apokryltaros · 11 February 2012
Richard B. Hoppe · 11 February 2012
Mike Elzinga · 11 February 2012
Nick Matzke · 11 February 2012
Sylvilagus · 12 February 2012
John · 12 February 2012
ksplawn · 12 February 2012
Really and truly understanding evolution takes effort and study, but even the brainier IDists flub the basic concepts that are simple. How many times must it be pointed out that evolution is not "random," that the whole point of Darwin's theory is that selection is a powerful, non-random determining factor? It lowers the barrier for "unlikely" beneficial changes to get a foothold because once they do, they're advantaged over the more likely harmful or neutral changes. Not only that, but the harmful changes are disadvantaged compared to both neutral and beneficial changes. Yet IDists and their audience constantly talk about "random chance" being the evolutionary model. There's no room for selection in their gut understanding of it, because to them the only alternatives are God pulling the strings or else chaos.
Mike Elzinga · 12 February 2012
Just Bob · 12 February 2012
Mike Elzinga · 12 February 2012
apokryltaros · 12 February 2012
Tenncrain · 12 February 2012
Nick Matzke · 13 February 2012
Mike Elzinga · 13 February 2012
Mike Elzinga · 13 February 2012
DS · 13 February 2012
Yea, one example of one species in one locality doesn't prove every single part of modern evolutionary theory, so it must not be true, so don't teach it. And if you do teach it, you should just ignore the fact that it actually does constitute irrefutable evidence of a major mechanism proposed by Darwin. This must be denied at all costs, even if we say that we accept "microevolution", even if we admit that the evidence for natural selection is readily observable and overwhelming, even if we admit that even theoretically it must be true. We can't let it appear as if any scientist really understands anything, even if we actually agree with it.
Wells could not refute the logic, so he just started spewing nonsense about irrelevant issues. He must on some level know that he is just being dishonest. Why would anyone choose to be fooled by such blatant crapola?
DS · 13 February 2012
"Since there are other, better examples of natural selection, why do Darwinists go to such lengths to defend the peppered moth story? And why do they practically bite themselves in two vilifying its critics?"
Since there are other, better examples of natural selection, why do creationists go to such lengths to denigrate the peppered moth story? And why do they practically bite themselves in two vilifying the real scientists who study it? Why don't they just admit that natural selection is real? Why don't they just admit that there is just as much evidence for speciation and "macroevolution"?
Henry J · 13 February 2012
John · 13 February 2012
Tenncrain · 13 February 2012
Scott F · 13 February 2012
SteveP. · 14 February 2012
SteveP. · 14 February 2012
SteveP. · 14 February 2012
Mike Elzinga · 14 February 2012
What we are seeing here with SteveP is the snooty anti-intellectualism of an individual that has given up on learning to the point that he would actually interfere with other people's educations.
There are thug teenagers that hang out near schools and beat up kids heading home from school carrying books under their arms. SteveP belongs to that mindset.
Dave Luckett · 14 February 2012
Is he seriously attempting to say that the difficulties of "marketing" evolution to those who will not undertake the effort of understanding it, is some sort of argument against its factual reality?
Seriously?
And is he attempting to say that his being unable to calculate entropy is some kind of demonstration that he understands it better than someone who can?
Seriously?
He's barmy.
Michael R · 14 February 2012
Sylvilagus · 14 February 2012
DS · 14 February 2012
Steve wrote:
"There real issue here is did the experiment establish that is was in fact NS at work?"
Well, do you have an alternative hypothesis?
See the thing is Steve that the predation was actually observed. We know the selective agent, we know it is a visual predator, we know it spots moths against a background and eats them. And of course this doesn't have to be the only bird species or even the only predator. Any differential survival based on phenotype would be selection. The point is that the shifts in allele frequency cannot be attributed to mutation or drift, so selection is really the only viable option. The real issue is that no one has any reason to doubt the role of selection and no alternative is likely. Of course doubting Steves demand that every moth be watched for every minute and every predation event be recorded, otherwise they simply refuse to believe it. But even if that were the case, doubting Steves would still find some reason to deny reality.
What's the real problem here Steve? Don't you think that selection is real? Don't you believe in natural selection? Remember, even Wells admitted that there are a thou=sand better examples? So why try to tie yourself in knots denying the obvious? Is ya just plain ignorant?
apokryltaros · 14 February 2012
apokryltaros · 14 February 2012
DS · 14 February 2012
DS · 14 February 2012
And as far as entropy calculations go, why are you more willing to trust the people who can't do that calculations than the people who can? Who should you take the word of biased people who don't have the faintest clue what they are talking about? Is it just that you will do anything necessary to confirm your own prejudices and misconceptions? Why do you feel that this is somehow a virtue?
ksplawn · 14 February 2012
harold · 14 February 2012
DS · 14 February 2012
Why don't we just let him argue with himself until he loses.
co · 15 February 2012
DS · 15 February 2012
bigdakine · 15 February 2012
SteveP. · 19 February 2012
prongs · 19 February 2012
DS · 19 February 2012
ksplawn · 19 February 2012
Helena Constantine · 19 February 2012
Tenncrain · 19 February 2012