Note: this is an off-the-cuff review that I wrote while experiencing jet-lag induced insomnia (I am in Canberra, Australia, to give a workshop on
BioGeoBEARS at the
2014 meeting of the International Biogeography Society at Australia National University). I have a more formal review in preparation for the
Reports of the National Center for Science Education.
Review of: de Queiroz, Alan (2014).
The Monkey's Voyage: How Improbable Journeys Shaped the History of Life. Basic Books: New York, pp. 1-348.
http://themonkeysvoyage.com/ -
Amazon Link
Today, a book is coming out that is destined to become a classic of science writing. Normally, popular science books popularize well-established science. The research being popularized may be decades or centuries old. Certainly popularization of such material is important, but I found that for me, the appeal of such works dropped off as I matured as a scientist. There are only so many times you can read about Darwin and the Beagle, or Laplace and the hypothesis he had no need of, or the sequence from Mendel to Watson and Crick, before you feel like you've heard it all before and it ceases to become interesting.
Alan de Queiroz is doing something different. He is popularizing an active scientific controversy in biogeography. Biogeography is the science of where species live and how they got there. The biogeographical controversy is termed "dispersal versus vicariance," and it runs long and deep. Understanding what the controversy is about, and why anyone would care, takes a little bit of background.
Background: The History of Historical Biogeography
Basically, the issue is this: Darwin and Wallace's discovery of evolution clarified a great many puzzles in biogeography. They pointed out that, if it is true that new species came about by descent with modification of older species, then we can understand many biogeographical phenomena that were quite puzzling under the paradigm that God specially created the species. For example, volcanic islands far from continents are (natively) devoid of amphibians, terrestrial mammals, earthworms, and many other organisms common on continents. If the deity were poofing species into existence in appropriate habitats, there seems to be no particular reason for Him to have excluded volcanic islands. However, on the theory of evolution, we have a ready explanation -- anything that lives on remote volcanic islands had to get itself there by some physical means, some time after the volcano erupted out of the ocean. Organisms that can float in saltwater for long periods of time (tortoises, coconuts) are commonly found on such islands, as are birds and organisms that hitch rides on them. But organisms with poor abilities to disperse over salt water -- such as as worms and amphibians -- are not on those islands, because they could never get there.
Descent with modification also explains why species in the same genus tend to cluster on the globe, rather than being evenly distributed everywhere. Quite often, this geographical clustering occurs irrespective of quite different environments -- many of the desert flowers in California look like modified versions of nearby flowers of grasslands and chaparral. Deserts on different continents tend to be populated by succulents related to other plants on the same continents -- cacti are ubiquitous in the deserts of North and South America, but there are no native cactus in Africa or Asia (there is one peculiar bird-dispersed form in Madagascar).
This is all well and good, but in solving many puzzles, descent with modification created some new ones. In particular, there are organisms on the globe that are obviously related, and living on continents, but are on opposite sides of oceans. Some of the famous ones are the ratite birds of the Southern Hemisphere (ostriches, rheas, kiwis, the extinct moas of New Zealand and Elephant Birds of Madagascar, etc.), and the Southern Beeches of the genus Nothofagus, distributed in temperate forests in South America, New Zealand, Australia, New Caledonia, and New Guinea. The debate over the biogeography of these clades extends back to Darwin and his contemporaries. Darwin was an advocate of dispersalism, arguing that on rare occasions, oceans could be crossed by poor dispersers -- perhaps, for example, if some dirt and seeds fell on a glacier, and the glacier calved off an iceberg, and the iceberg crossed the ocean and ended up melting on a foreign beach...can it be said that such a thing is impossible? Hooker, on the other hand, favored "land bridges" as an explanation for close cross-ocean similarities, especially when the similarities extended to whole floras. The idea here is that two regions with similar floras used to be contiguous, and then were broken up by environmental change forming a barrier -- for example, the sinking of a land bridge. Contiguous ranges followed by breakup constitute a "vicariance" explanation.
Which is correct? Darwin thought land bridges were invoked in far too carefree a fashion, and the geological support for them was often dubious. Hooker and others thought similarly of near-miraculous dispersal mechanisms. The debate has continued since then. Until the 1950s, the dispersalist school was probably dominant, in part because most geologists believed in the fixity of continents, and the evidence for land bridges was usually weak. However, with the acceptance of continental drift, the tide turned. Biogeographers finally had their overland connections, albeit in a different form than originally conceived. The advance of plate tectonics happened to coincide with the advent of cladistic methods for inferring phylogenetic relationship, starting with the work of Hennig. Cladistic methods relied on atomizing organismal morphology and traits into discrete character states, and then searching for trees that minimized the number of character state changes in homologous characters (parsimony).
Vicariance Biogeography: Advance or "cul-de-sac"?
Similar methods were soon applied to historical biogeography. Geographic range was discretized into a series of presences and absences for each species. These could be used to attempt to reconstruct the geographic history of an individual clade, but the more interesting application was to use biogeographic distributions to reconstruct the history of connections between areas. Here, the geographical areas become the lineages, and the presence or absence of particular clades constitute the character states. This approach favors vicariance, as clades sitting still are the "homologies", and dispersal events become homoplasies. The best tree of areas is the one that maximizes vicariance explanations, and minimizes dispersal; it was then assumes that this represents the history of breakup of areas.
This extension of cladistic methods and vicariance assumptions to biogeography -- vicariance biogeography -- was conceptually appealing: researchers could calculate support statistics like they did for cladograms; the general area cladograms that resulted told an interesting synthetic story, and, for once, it seemed like the biogeographers might be able to help the geologists reconstruct plate histories. However, there were always some major open questions. The first concerns homology. A parsimony analysis of organismal characters relies on the assumption that shared character states for a particular character are, on average, more likely to be shared because of common ancestry (shared history) than because of convergence (independent acquisition). This assumption does not have to be true for all characters analyzed, but it should hopefully be true for the majority of them, or, at the very least, the signal of shared history should be more common in the characters than any other directional signal. These assumptions are eminently reasonable for a diverse set of distinct organismal characters. However, in the biogeographical case, when all of the characters are clade presences in regions, these assumptions require that vicariance be a more probable explanation than independent dispersal. This could be true, but it is an assumption.
Another assumption that is made in this operation is that the age of clades doesn't matter. The inputs to vicariance biogeography methods are simple cladograms, which do not come with time scales unless they are added. This was perhaps unavoidable in the 1970s and 1980s when cladograms were the typical result of phylogenetic analyses, but nowadays, time-scaling, ideally using the fossil record, is a standard procedure. Two clades might have the same geographic distribution, say, ABC (living in areas A, B, and C), but if one clade is 5 million years old, and the other is 100 million years old, it is hard to argue that they are evidence of a common geological history of those three regions.
Whatever the validity of the assumptions, for many years, vicariance biogeography methods were the only phylogenetically explicit methods available. This is still largely the impression you will get if you visit the biogeography shelf of a university library. And, for reasons that remain somewhat obscure to me, the above assumptions were applied not just to reconstructing the history of areas, but often, to reconstructing the history of single clades. I can see why the assumptions might be useful if the goal is reconstructing the history of geographical
areas using cladistic methods, because some assumptions about "homology" and shared history need to be made to even get started; but when the same assumptions are applied to reconstructing the history of individual clades, what results is a method that assumes "maximum vicariance" -- vicariance is employed as the preferred explanation of distributions wherever possible.
Some biogeographers never bought this assumption -- especially biogeographers who worked on island taxa where dispersal seems overwhelmingly likely to be the major explanation of distributions. But, probably because of the power of the twin revolutions of plate tectonics and cladistics -- and the fact that both revolutions, at least according to common legends, took over in the face of hardened opposition from hidebound proponents of orthodoxy in the academic establishment -- there are still many biogeographers who repeat the line that dispersal is an unscientific explanation that can be used willy-nilly to explain any distributional data, and that historical biogeography should be focused on detecting the signal of vicariance.
The last 15 years have seen the explosion of phylogenetic dating methods, as well as many new computational methods for analyzing biogeographical data on phylogenies. This has diluted the classic old dispersal-versus-vicariance debate somewhat, such that when the issue is raised, many will say something like: "Oh, that old chestnut. I'm tired of that debate, clearly the answer is that both happen and both are important. It's a false dichotomy." Actually, I am convinced this is a wrong and frankly somewhat lazy answer, for reasons I will explain at the end of this review.
At any rate, even if the dispersal versus vicariance debate seems old-fashioned, it is definitely not dead. One piece of evidence for this was the book
Molecular Panbiogeography of the Tropics by Michael Heads (2012). This large tome, published by by the respected University of California Press, analyzes the biogeography of hundreds of clades from around the world, but does so with a rigid application of the assumptions of vicariance biogeography -- Heads mostly ignores molecular dating results, even though many of the phylogenies he makes use of come from papers that apply dating methods, and furthermore, he states clearly that one of his starting assumptions is that long-distance dispersal (or "jump dispersal") will not be used in his reconstructions of the history of clades.
de Queiroz Enters the Fray
The other piece of evidence is Alan de Queiroz's new book,
The Monkey's Voyage: How Improbable Journeys Shaped the History of Life, published on January 7, 2014. de Queiroz takes aim at the vicariance school in biogeography and argues that its proponents "ended up arguing themselves into a strange intellectual corner where they envisioned an idealized history of life that never was." He says that vicariance biogeography was "a turn down an intellectual cul-de-sac" for biogeography, and that this group's systematic skepticism about phylogenetic dating indicates "an acute disconnection from reality related to this skepticism about the estimated ages of groups."
de Queiroz begins his defense of these statements with a thorough introduction to phylogenetic dating methods -- definitely the best introduction to the methods that I have seen written for the general public. By telling the story of his own work and many other modern researchers, he brings to life how the dusty old vicariance biogeography debate played out in the work of individual researchers trained in that tradition. In short, as DNA sequencing became ubiquitous, high-quality phylogenies could be constructed for any living group of interest. Dating methods, some relying on the molecular clock, but many others relying on less restrictive assumptions and fossil calibrations, kept giving results that indicated that many divergence events were just too young to be explained by classic vicariance hypotheses. Worse, the biogeographic congruence of different groups that researchers sometimes thought they saw through the blurry lens of Linnaean taxonomy or undated cladograms often fell apart once dates were available. Despite all of the caveats of dating methods -- high uncertainties, difficulties in finding reliable calibrations, the fact that the oldest fossils in a clade are never the oldest true members of a clade that existed, etc. -- caveats which de Queiroz reviews well -- the overall picture seems robust. Relatively few clades and inferred biogeographic events inferred from the dated phylogenies of living taxa are old enough to be explained by continental breakup. Often, the only way to make an analysis say that clades are sufficiently old is to use the postulated continental breakup to set the date of divergence; but this rather puts the cart before the horse, and often indicates molecular rates far slower than those indicated by much other evidence, and puts the divergence times far, far below those indicated by the fossil record of the group in question.
The discussion of dating results is the intellectual core of the book, but de Queiroz successfully combines a scientific review with an engaging journalistic style, complete with humorous asides and witty quotes from the participants. Michael Donoghue's ultra-laid-back, but devastating, assessments of the vicariance school, and his description of his own personal journey from interest in the methods to concern at their rigidity, is not to be missed.
de Queiroz supplements the scientific argument with a capable review of the history of historical biogeography, complete with quotes and stories from the main players, many of whom are still alive (and definitely kicking). The tale of how a subfield can manuever itself into what seems like, from the outside, a quite odd intellectual position, is interesting in and of itself, and serves as a caution to all of us in this age of scientific super-specialization.
de Queiroz also effectively analyzes just what it was about vicariance biogeography that made it so appealing to so many. The role of plate tectonics and cladistics was described above, but he covers the popular appeal as well. Probably every reader has been to a zoo or museum, seen one of those amazing animations of continental plates moving about the globe, and read some description of the biogeography of some clade (usually ratites or southern beeches) and how it is neatly explained by plate tectonics. The simplicity of the story is gripping -- first a puzzle (cross-ocean distributions), followed by a resolution a fifth-grader could understand, namely, the (admittedly amazing) reconstruction of the history of plate movements. de Queiroz notes that even beyond this, there is probably more than a little regional pride behind the appeal of vicariance explanations. Standing in a primeval forest in New Zealand is all the more appealing if you think that you are basically standing in a forest that has existed in its present form since the Mesozoic.
Finally, de Queiroz makes the positive case for dispersal, not just relying on dating results, but also reviewing many known cases of long-distance dispersal, some of them that would be quite stupendous and difficult to believe, had they not been directly observed by humans within the last century or two. He raises the question -- how can long-distance dispersal be said to be an unscientific explanation, when it is something that has been directly observed on many occasions? This puts the shoe decidedly on the other foot.
In the concluding chapter, de Queiroz notes that much of the appeal of vicariance was due to the imaginative vision it presented -- flora and fauna riding on the continents, with a history that could be unraveled using plate tectonic reconstructions. de Queiroz quite deliberately puts forward an alternative imaginative vision, namely, that of the long-distance voyage, and the invasion and radiation of the rare heroic species that manage to cross oceans. He argues, effectively I think, that this set of stories is at least as capturing as the vicariance narrative, and that under this vision, we can see many cases where these rare events have played probably crucial roles in evolutionary history. Had one primate lineage never crossed the ancient Tethys sea, for instance, perhaps there never would have been great apes or, eventually, humans. This is Gould's thesis in
Wonderful Life retold in biogeographic form, and frankly, the fact that the relevant biogeographic events are much more recent than those of the Cambrian probably means that de Queiroz's case for the role of contingency is stronger that Gould's was.
de Queiroz's focus on narrative makes for gripping reading. Under his pen, a topic that seems at first rather dry and academic becomes one that underlies everything you see when you're on a hike or at a zoo, and you can also feel why there seems to be a impressive bit of emotion and rhetoric amongst the scientists involved in the vicariance debate. However, the focus on storytelling and reasoning from anecdote, while a noble tradition going back to Darwin and before, is itself a bit old-fashioned in this day and age. In modern evolutionary biology, we prefer that our conclusions are the result of formal statistical inference, rather than simply a narrative that we construct by gestalt based on accumulated experience. The cladistic methods in vicariance biogeography were actually an early attempt at this, which was part of their appeal. However, these methods had little in the way of uncertainty assessment, and the assumptions were such that the method could basically only give one answer: vicariance.
Much of vicariance biogeography was based on essentially repurposing standard cladistic programs for biogeographical uses, but with the construction of biogeography-specific programs, the situation began to change. Programs like DIVA (Dispersal-Vicariance Analysis; Ronquist 1997) and LAGRANGE (Likelihood Analysis of Geographic Range Evolution; Ree and Smith 2008) enabled researchers to input the phylogeny of a group, geographic range data, and obtain an estimate of the group's geographic history as the product of a series of dispersal and vicariance events. DIVA was a parsimony method, but LAGRANGE was a probablistic method that explicitly took time into account, and it allowed researchers to have different geographies at different periods of time.
A Grain of Salt
These methods have enjoyed wide success. However, when I studied these methods for my Ph.D., one crucial thing I discovered was that each of these programs implemented the assumptions of the programmers, and that in the case of biogeography, the assumptions really matter. The core assumption made by both programs was that ranges could expand and contract along the branches of a phylogeny, but at speciation events on a phylogeny, all that could happen to a widespread range is that it break up (or, in the case of LAGRANGE, an additional option was subset sympatry, where a new species starts inside the range of the ancestor). One key event that these methods leave out is the possibility that dispersal and speciation are simultaneous events, i.e., founder-event speciation or jump dispersal . In founder-event speciation, a small subpopulation crosses a large barrier and instantly becomes genetically isolated, becoming a new lineage. While every proponent of vicariance biogeography accepts "dispersal" in the form of range expansion must happen at some point (this is, of course, required, since a species must become widespread before it can break up), jump dispersal was much more controversial.
Michael Heads, mentioned above, explicitly accepts range expansion but denies founder-event speciation through jump dispersal. Interestingly, Heads
thinks that the DIVA and LAGRANGE programs are dispersalist programs that allow jump dispersal, but actually they do not. I believe he thinks this, because these programs are widely used by biogeographers who think of themselves as dispersalists or pluralists, but the actual assumptions about dispersal made by DIVA and LAGRANGE are actually quite similar to those made by Heads (Matzke 2013). In short, while many biogeographers would not trust Heads's book any further than Alan de Queiroz could throw it, they are in effect adopting similar assumptions when they make use of programs that hard-code assumptions about biogeographical process that trace straight back to the vicariance biogeography school!
In an attempt to remedy this situation, I wrote my own program, the R package "
BioGeoBEARS", that allows users to turn on, or turn off, the different biogeographical processes, and see what the effect is on the statistical likelihood of the data. In cases where researchers don't feel that they know ahead of time the relative probability of different processes, the weight of each process can be set as a free parameter. The program then varies the values of these parameters, and picks the set of parameter values that confers the maximum likelihood on the data. The likelihoods of the geographical data under different models can then be compared using standard methods in statistical model choice, such as the likelihood ratio test and Akaike Information Criterion.
Caption for Figure 1, Matzke 2013, Frontiers of Biogeography: The processes assumed by different historical biogeography methods. Each of these processes is controlled by the specified parameter(s) in the BioGeoBEARS supermodel, allowing them to be turned on or off, or estimated from the data. Note that whether or not the data support a particular free parameter is an empirical question that should be tested with model choice procedures. Note also that this graphic deals only with the range-changing processes assumed by the different methods. BioGeoBEARS does not attempt to replicate e.g. the parsimony aspect of DIVA, just the processes allowed by DIVA (the BioGeoBEARS "DIVA" model can be called "DIVALIKE" to emphasize that it is a likelihood implementation of the processes assumed by DIVA). Similarly, BioGeoBEARS does not yet implement the "SSE" (state-based speciation and extinction rates) features of the GeoSSE model (Goldberg et al. 2011) of diversity. The ClaSSE model (Goldberg & Igić, 2012) can in theory use a parameter to represent the probability of each possible combination of ancestor range, left descendant range, and right descendant range. In that sense ClaSSE is the ultimate supermodel, although users would have to develop their own parameterizations to produce a reasonable biogeographic model, and the number of parameters inflates dramatically with number of areas -- on defaults, 9 areas means 2^9-1=511 possible ranges, and this means 511x511x511 = 133,432,831 possible combinations of ancestor/left descendant/right descendant. The cladoRcpp R package, a dependency of BioGeoBEARS, is designed to efficiently calculate probabilities for these combinations, under the implemented biogeography models.
de Queiroz would be pleased to know that, in 25 example clades that I selected to test the different models, models that included founder-event speciation as a process outperformed the traditional models in almost every case. The results were often dramatic: in many cases, models including founder-event speciation had model weights hundreds of thousands or millions of times higher than the traditional models. Furthermore, simulations show that accuracy and precision of estimated ancestral ranges increases dramatically when better-performing models are used. I have a found a few cases where the traditional models "won" --
Taygetis clade butterflies in South America are one, probably because they are a continental clade where many species have widespread, overlapping ranges. But the overall picture is clear: founder-event speciation is a crucial process in many clades, and we ignore it at our peril.
This is why I said above that the dispersal-versus-vicariance debate should not be shrugged off with answers like "the right answer is both." First, there are different sorts of dispersal, and accounting for one does not mean that you have accounted for all of them. Second, what we
really want is not just a list of valid and invalid processes. What we really want to do in science is to
measure the relative importance of each process. BioGeoBEARS is the first attempt to do this, although of course it is quite likely that even more sophisticated improved models will be invented in the future.
I am, of course, tooting my own horn here, but who can blame me? A popular book on my favorite topic, historical biogeography, confirms the statistical conclusions I reached in my Ph.D. research, although on totally separate grounds. I suspect this is rare amongst Ph.D. theses. So, take my assessment of
The Monkey's Voyage with that grain of salt. However, I believe that my conclusions about de Queiroz's readability, grasp of the history and personalities involved, and his expertise on the relevant science are accurate, whatever the detailed fate of my own research. Certainly, reading de Queiroz's book is a far more enjoyable way to find out what is going on in historical biogeography than reading a recent Ph.D. on statistical model choice!
References
de Queiroz, Alan (2014).
The Monkey's Voyage: How Improbable Journeys Shaped the History of Life. Basic Books: New York, pp. 1-348.
http://themonkeysvoyage.com/ --
Amazon Link
Heads, Michael J. (2012)
Molecular Panbiogeography of the Tropics. University of California Press, Berkeley.
Matzke, Nicholas J. (2013).
BioGeoBEARS: BioGeography with Bayesian (and Likelihood) Evolutionary Analysis in R Scripts. R package, version 0.2.1, published July 27, 2013 at:
http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=BioGeoBEARS. PhyloWiki page:
http://phylo.wikidot.com/biogeobears
Matzke, Nicholas J. (2013). Thesis abstract: Probabilistic historical biogeography: new models for founder-event speciation, imperfect detection, and fossils allow improved accuracy and model-testing.
Frontiers of Biogeography, 5(4), 242-248.
http://escholarship.org/uc/item/44j7n141
Matzke, Nicholas J. (2013). "Formal Model Testing of the Dispersal-Extinction-Cladogenesis (DEC) Model Reveals that Founder-event Speciation is a Dominant Process Structuring the Biogeography of Island Clades."
Systematic Biology, in review.
Matzke, Nicholas Joseph (2013).
Probabilistic Historical Biogeography: New Models for Founder-Event Speciation, Imperfect Detection, and Fossils Allow Improved Accuracy and Model-Testing. Ph.D. thesis, Department Integrative Biology and Designated Emphasis in Computational and Genomic Biology, University of California, Berkeley. Pages 1-240. August 2013. Available at: http://phylo.wikidot.com/local--files/biogeobears/Matzke_PhD_FINAL_v5_w_refs.pdf
Ree, R.H. & Smith, S.A. (2008) Maximum likelihood inference of geographic range evolution by dispersal, local extinction, and cladogenesis.
Systematic Biology, 57, 4-14.
Ronquist, F. (1997) Dispersal‐Vicariance Analysis: A new approach to the quantification of historical biogeography.
Systematic Biology, 46, 195-203.
171 Comments
Paul Burnett · 6 January 2014
Awesome article - thanks!
Typo - last paragraph under "Background" - "The advanced of plate tectonics" should probably be "advancement".
Henry J · 6 January 2014
Fascinating (as Spock would say).
Sort of the hitchhiker's guide to biogeography?
robert van bakel · 6 January 2014
Thank you for letting me be lazy, and uncovering my next book purchase.
Nick Matzke · 7 January 2014
Fixed the typo, thanks!!
John Harshman · 7 January 2014
The weirdest thing, at least in my biased view, is that ratites were so long used as a vicariance poster child, when their distribution fits no model of continental separation. In each attempt to make them match, one or more bizarre events of special pleading had to be postulated, and the presence of ratites and other paleognaths in the northern hemisphere had to be ignored. Ratite polyphyly made the whole idea only a little bit sillier.
Nick Matzke · 7 January 2014
Nick Matzke · 7 January 2014
Ah - South American, transferred north in the GABI:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phorusrhacidae
John Harshman · 7 January 2014
Nick Matzke · 7 January 2014
Hey, just came across a blog by Alan de Queiroz's wife!
http://tinynaturalworld.blogspot.com.au/2014/01/the-monkey-has-landed.html
beatgroover · 7 January 2014
Great review, you've convinced me to get the book and check it out! I took an undergrad class on plant biogeography and our teacher always wanted us to understand the different dispersal capabilities of plants - understanding LDD was a big part of our course and you've made me appreciate his focus on it. Seed structure is naturally the most important thing to consider, hence why coconut trees (whose seeds can withstand almost any long voyage) are so ubiquitous on tropical beaches.
And I think I saw a doubled particle someone in your review, don't remember where though!
Robert Byers · 7 January 2014
I am TEC but always had a special interest in biogeography. It made the YEC case as I saw it.
The author of the thread starts out with a long statement about how DEFEATING the God theory makes the case for the evolution theory.
It doesn't make any case at all. Yet more important is that the idea of God poofing creatures into their placxes is contrary to historic biblical christianity. Darwin and modern writers make this error.
We , YEC, insist there was a flood, preservation of ground creatures on the ark, and only from there was there dispersal. !
We predict also no elephants on the isles of the pacific. TO say God placed creatures on earth where we later found them is a rejection of Genesis.
Why is this not understood? In Darwins day Genesis was rejected by the upper class Anglicans. he was fighting a special idea of God created speciation . Indeed in debunking it he too much thought he made his own case.
There is no problem with biogeopgraphy and the ark landing zone.
We also have no problem with minor variation of something as separated by islands/ranges etc. Just like with people.
We have no problem with the beech in the southern lands. it just floated about in those areas. no need to invoke slow continental drift carrying the seeds.
There probably is loads of problems with biogeography when the assumption is that evolution created the types of living things.
Nick Matzke · 7 January 2014
So, on the Noah's Ark theory, why did the monotremes and marsupials end up in such specific places? Did the echidna and platypus hold hands as traveled from the ark?
Helena Constantine · 7 January 2014
DS · 8 January 2014
Plate tectonics and biogeography falsify YEC (and TEC). bobby loses again. Just another example of evolution explaining the natural world and creationism utterly failing to provide any explanation at all.
MaskedQuoll · 8 January 2014
Why are there still monkeys?
Scott F · 8 January 2014
eric · 8 January 2014
MaskedQuoll · 8 January 2014
beatgroover · 8 January 2014
diogeneslamp0 · 8 January 2014
Here is Byers' great biogeographical theory.
His explanation for how kangaroos and many other marsupials got to Australia is that they didn't. When they ran from Mt. Ararat over the Himalaya and swam to Australia, they were placentals. Then some unspecified thing (marsupial rays?) in the environment of Australia turned them into marsupials by giving them a pouch.
Strangely, Byers' "marsupial rays" did not have the same effect of Ken Ham, or Crocodile Dundee, or 40,000 years of aboriginal inhabitants, or echidnas, or platypuses, or saltwater crocodiles, or the goanna.
Byers, being a genius, thinks that the marsupial lion and the marsupial wolf are two different species, and the first was a placental lion that "marsupial rays" gave a pouch and turned into the thylacine, and the second was a placental wolf that "marsupial rays" gave a pouch and uh, also turned into the thylacine.
Darwin is finished!
diogeneslamp0 · 8 January 2014
diogeneslamp0 · 8 January 2014
DS · 8 January 2014
Tenncrain · 8 January 2014
Scott F · 8 January 2014
Richard B. Hoppe · 8 January 2014
I just finished the book, and immediately thought about founder effects.
A question: why do we not see genetic evidence of the extreme population bottlenecks implied by ubiquitous dispersal? Or do we?
Nick Matzke · 8 January 2014
I think we do, sometimes, although for any really ancient events this would be hard to detect. I don't think anyone has done a comprehensive study inferring founder-events on the tree and then looking for the popgen data, as I just invented the founder-event inference, and then you would need lots of popgen data. It would certainly be feasible to do the test...
Robert Byers · 9 January 2014
Robert Byers · 9 January 2014
Robert Byers · 9 January 2014
Robert Byers · 9 January 2014
Robert Byers · 9 January 2014
didymos1120 · 9 January 2014
Keelyn · 9 January 2014
DS · 9 January 2014
So that would be a no. Robert has no intention whatsoever of ever testing his "ideas". And that should tell you all you need to know about him and his ideas.
Scott F · 9 January 2014
DS · 9 January 2014
So in the last six thousand years, AFTER a global flood that nobody seemed to notice and which did NOT produce any genetic bottleneck in any species, an ice age occurred that lowered sea levels allowing for animals to migrate to every part of the earth (in patterns that precisely mimic those expected from continental drift). Then the ice melted and sea levels rose, so island species were reduced in size drastically due to selection pressures. And all of this happened without anyone noticing either.
And all of this must be true because evolution could not have happened!
diogeneslamp0 · 9 January 2014
apokryltaros · 9 January 2014
https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawnKupVGX70N9ZsvLu8iScIzWpyVj8bds_Q · 9 January 2014
apokryltaros · 9 January 2014
Mike Elzinga · 9 January 2014
Scott F · 9 January 2014
Just Bob · 9 January 2014
Mike Elzinga · 9 January 2014
TomS · 9 January 2014
IANAS, but here is my take on things:
There is a complex pattern of relationships which exists between various forms of life, known as the "nested hierarchy". It includes, for example, the obvious relationship between the human body and that of chimps and other apes. *No one* has proposed an explanation for this which does *not* involve common descent with modification. Therefore, it is a reasonable hypothesis to consider. The consequences of this hypothesis have been investigated for 150 years from every conceivable angle, and the hypothesis remains unchallenged.
The only "alternative" proposed goes something like this: somehow, somewhere, some time, something happened which just by coincidence turns out to be this "nested hierarchy".
Robert Byers · 9 January 2014
https://www.google.com/accounts/o8/id?id=AItOawnKupVGX70N9ZsvLu8iScIzWpyVj8bds_Q · 9 January 2014
Dave Luckett · 9 January 2014
What Byers does not know is that there are perfectly reliable written records from the ancient near east that detail crop yields, storage levels, irrigation, astronomical observation and king lists from about 3000 BCE onwards - and there was no ice age at any time in that time period.
That is because knowledge would be fatal to Byers. He therefore carefully preserves his ignorance.
Dave Luckett · 9 January 2014
But wait: the second paragraph of Byers's last post actually consists of reasonably competent grammatical prose, barring an apostrophe or two.
Who are you, and what have you done with Byers?
Scott F · 9 January 2014
Thrinaxodon12 · 10 January 2014
==============================
THE TRUTH COMES MARCHING IN...
==============================
THE SMITHSONIAN PLEADES AS THRINAXODON REVEALS MAN IS AS OLD AS COAL:
https://groups.google.com/forum....igqX9Ts
HE APPEARED ON LOPEZ TONIGHT, AND THE O'REILLY SHOW TO ANNOUNCE HIS
DISCOVERY.
PLEASE LET THIS NEWS GET TO DAVID IAIN GREIG, THE KING OF THE TYRRANICAL
EVOLUTIONISTS.
==================================
BUT WAIT; THERE'S MORE:
; https://groups.google.com/forum...._mmvhu0
Thrinaxodon also GOES TO COURT:
https://groups.google.com/forum...._8cZ4IM
==================================
MAN AS OLD AS FROGS
http://thrinaxodon.wordpress.com/faq....faq
THRINAXON NOW ON FACEBOOK.
Christine Janis · 10 January 2014
ksplawn · 10 January 2014
DS · 10 January 2014
apokryltaros · 10 January 2014
ksplawn · 10 January 2014
Irrationalization is much easier to type.
apokryltaros · 10 January 2014
Robert Byers · 11 January 2014
DS · 11 January 2014
Irrationalization indeed.
Or in the words of Sheldon Cooper, "ununravelable".
TomS · 11 January 2014
Just Bob · 11 January 2014
Robert Byers,
I rather hesitate to ask this, but here goes: The knowledge and principles that we can lump under "evolution" or "evolutionary science" (or methodological naturalism) have helped us achieve many wonderful things and made human life immeasurably better in many ways. But I will grant that that alone does not 'prove' that evolution is true. It could be just a useful mental tool for figuring out things. I believe there are many things in math that work that way.
Now, let's switch it around, as you apparently want to do. Let's suppose that we all quit using the scientific model of an ancient and evolving universe and life, and discoverable natural causes (methodological naturalism). Instead, let's use the YEC model of the universe and life. Whether it's true or not doesn't matter, because, just as with evolution (above), it could just be a useful mental tool for figuring out things. If it WORKS and helps us, we should use it, whether we believe it to be true or not.
So... if science all switched to YEC, how would we be better off? (Let's leave out spiritual things like getting to heaven.) What problems could we solve with a YEC framework that have stumped us with evolution? Would we cure more diseases? Would human lifespans increase? Infant mortality decrease? Would the world population become happier, healthier, wealthier, and no longer in danger of overpopulation and depletion of resources? If YEC would solve, or even slightly improve, those things, how would it do it? Why would it work better than the evolution/old universe model?
ksplawn · 11 January 2014
You're asking him for original thinking instead of a chance to irrationalize some select, existing facts with his Crazy Glue(tm) of YEC.
I wouldn't expect a direct answer, if he answers at all.
ksplawn · 11 January 2014
DS · 11 January 2014
It's easy to make up stories when you ignore most of the evidence. Tell us bobby boy, are whales fish? Are bats birds? How do you know? If you apply the same principles to the wolf problem, what answer do you get? Now do you want to admit you were once again wrong?
Just Bob · 11 January 2014
Rolf · 11 January 2014
The problem with YEC is that sooner than later even the most ardent of proponents will have to surrender to the overwhelming evidence that their belief can no longer be upheld without committing what I call intellectual harakiri. That applies to Robert as well.
Dendrochronology and C-14 dating alone will be more than enough. There is more than enough evidence showing that these methods are very reliable within the past 10 - 20 thousand years - long enough to send YEC to the garbage heap of history.
TomS · 11 January 2014
By 1950, YEC was indeed dead. The anti-evolutionists - except for a handful of extremists - had long conceded that there had been more than 10,000 years of life on Earth. It didn't take dendrochronology or radioisotope dating to kill off YEC. The developments of the next couple of decades revived YEC somehow, but, except for Omphalism, the only "respectable" alternative for anti-evolutionism was to shut up about YEC (it had become too politically powerful to reject openly), and thus we got ID.
Christine Janis · 11 January 2014
Christine Janis · 11 January 2014
ksplawn · 12 January 2014
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Thylacoleo_carnifex_1.JPG
Yep, just a lion!
John Harshman · 12 January 2014
Where else but at Panda's Thumb can you find Robert Byers lecturing Christine Janis on comparative mammal anatomy? Priceless.
Owlmirror · 12 January 2014
Scott F · 12 January 2014
Robert, how did the wolf become a marsupial wolf?
You are saying that the wolf traveled to Australia (leaving no traces behind along the way), crossed a land bridge to Australia (a land bridge provided by the 300 foot lowering of the oceans due to the timely Freezing Rain Age™), and then this wolf picked up a pouch in Australia and put it on, because pouches were all the fashion in Austrailia, and you really didn't want to be seen in public in the 1700's without a pouch.
How did the wolf do this?
Did God change his perfect design plan and decide to give pouches to wolves (and all the other Australian critters) after they got to Australia?
Let's not forget all those fossils. Flood Geology tells us that all the fossils we see today were buried in carefully ordered layers during the year of the flood. If the marsupial wolf (and lion and tiger and bear, oh my!) got to Australia hundreds of years after the flood, how is it that we have fossils of these creatures in the same carefully ordered layers that Evolution predicts?
As an aside, how exactly does 100-200 years of Freezing Rain lower the level of the oceans by 300 feet?
Scott F · 12 January 2014
BTW, Robert, aside from some misplaced punctuation, your grammar has improved greatly in your last few posts. While your ideas are still strange, they are at least easier to read. Have you been taking classes? Practicing somehow?
DS · 12 January 2014
Now you're just bring facts into the discussion. bobby avoids those like the plague because they are always so inconvenient for his preconceptions. Unfortunately for him, others are not as ignorant as he is, that's why he can never convince anyone of anything. Too bad he can't figure that out. But then again, he can't figure out that "i" should be capitalized.
TomS · 12 January 2014
ksplawn · 12 January 2014
TomS · 12 January 2014
Robert Byers · 13 January 2014
Robert Byers · 13 January 2014
Owlmirror · 13 January 2014
Robert Byers · 13 January 2014
Owlmirror · 13 January 2014
Just Bob · 13 January 2014
Christine Janis · 13 January 2014
Tenncrain · 14 January 2014
Robert Byers · 15 January 2014
Robert Byers · 15 January 2014
Owlmirror · 15 January 2014
Owlmirror · 15 January 2014
DS · 15 January 2014
And there you have it folks, Byers in a nutshell.. Humans have to look like some animal! Why? Because Byers says so. Humans look like apes. Why? Because that's the best animal. Why? Because Byers says so. And where does all of this amazing knowledge come from? Why a Nova special of course. That means he can ignore all of the experts and make up his own crap about anything he wants!
Keep it up bobby boy. we is a aquiverin with anticipation to hear you next pronouncement
DS · 15 January 2014
Oh, I almost forgot. bobby still has not taken up the challenge to actually test his "hypothesis". Don't forget this fact. It really tells you everything you need to know.
Scott F · 15 January 2014
eric · 15 January 2014
Scott F · 15 January 2014
By the way, Robert. You still have not explained the difference between a marsupial tiger (that is a tiger, because it looks like a tiger), and a marsupial wolf (which is a wolf, because it looks like a wolf).
DS · 15 January 2014
DS · 15 January 2014
Henry J · 15 January 2014
Robert Byers · 15 January 2014
Robert Byers · 15 January 2014
DS · 15 January 2014
So robert, are whales and dolphins fish or not. If you refuse to answer you are screwed. If you answer you are screwed anyway, but at least you will have tried. Don't bother trying to post any more responses until you answer the question. You aren't fooling anyone.
Dave Luckett · 15 January 2014
Byers thinks (for certain very charitable values of "thinks") that when the placentals moved to Australia, they changed radically. The bears moved into the trees, shrank, completely reorganised their paws, and developed the marsupium and the two holes. The deer lost the rumen, became bipedal with very heavy tails, and developed the marsupium and the two holes. Dogs shortened their forelimbs and their tails became rigid, and they, too, developed the marsupium and the two holes. Badgers foreshortened their skulls and shortened their hind limbs, and they also developed the marsupium and the two holes. At the same time, they all rearranged their dentition to the same pattern, no matter what they ate. For some reason.
Of course it's a commonplace that only miraculous hyperevolution could produce such gross anatomical changes in the time since the flood - 4500 years or so. But there you go; miracles are the currency of creationism. Why not print up a few more? Inflation, who cares?
This is a more interesting question: Why does Byers think (for certain very charitable values of "think") that given these impossible and miraculous rates of mutation and adaptation, all of the marsupials developed the same skeletal and dental patterns, independently? Why did they all develop the same holes in the palate? Why all the same tooth-row?
The answer, as always, is "God did it that way".
Scott F · 15 January 2014
Dave Luckett · 15 January 2014
By "the two holes" I mean the two holes in the marsupial palate. Sorry. Insufficient care in editing.
Scott F · 15 January 2014
Owlmirror · 15 January 2014
Owlmirror · 15 January 2014
Owlmirror · 15 January 2014
AltairIV · 16 January 2014
Byers' thinking is really very simple (in more ways than one). To him, every living thing is obviously classified as "doggy" type, "kitty" type, "birdy" type, and so on, based on what he thinks it most resembles.
Humans are special, naturally. They're in a class of their own.
Any and all evidence must then necessarily support this conclusion (or "make his point" as he's wont to say), or else it doesn't exist.
ksplawn · 16 January 2014
Perhaps he thinks that this is because Adam got to name all the animals first, and prior to The Fall there was no way Adam was going to get them wrong (since he hadn't yet been corrupted by disobedience).
So of course, Adam was sitting around in the garden of Eden calling wolves "wolves" and marsupial wolves "marsupial wolves," calling tigers "tigers" and marsupial tigers ... um..
j. biggs · 16 January 2014
Robert Byers · 16 January 2014
apokryltaros · 16 January 2014
Robert Byers · 16 January 2014
Robert Byers · 16 January 2014
Keelyn · 16 January 2014
DS · 16 January 2014
Byers is doing the old game of being an ignorant, arrogant jerk and disrespecting every real expert in the world. No one is fooled by his ludicrous nonsense. He won't even try to test his silly ideas. The jerk won't even tell us if dolphins are whales or not. He's just here to yank chains and play the fool. Ban him to the bathroom wall or this is the crap you get.
ksplawn · 16 January 2014
Hey Robert, I posted the skull of a "marsupial lion" back there. Can you tell me how it looks like the skull of a placental lion?
Scott F · 16 January 2014
Scott F · 16 January 2014
Scott F · 16 January 2014
Scott F · 16 January 2014
Robert Byers · 17 January 2014
DS · 17 January 2014
Are dolphins fish? Yes or no?
If yes, you are busted.
If no you are busted.
Piss off.
diogeneslamp0 · 17 January 2014
Above you said the marsupial horse is the same as the placental horse. Please present us with two photos, one of a marsupial horse and one of a placental horse, showing that they are identical. You may use Google images, but prove it.
Above you said the marsupial tapir is the same as the placental tapir. Please present us with two photos, one of a marsupial tapir and one of a placental tapir, showing that they are identical. You may use Google images, but prove it.
diogeneslamp0 · 17 January 2014
Christine Janis · 17 January 2014
Robert Byers said: "Your quite wrong here. ---- The marsupial lion, good nova episode once done on it, is wonderfully like our cats. "
Oh, you mean the program where I was a consultant and featured in the video? Good one, Robert. The program that showed that it could stand on its hind legs and use its tail as a tripod?
"
Possums have great numbers of kids. I read once some kangaroo can have a fetus growing, a fetus in the pouch, and a joey at its feet at the same time."
Small placentals also have many young per litter. But it's been shown beyond a shadow of a doubt that modern marsupials have a lower reproductive turnover than similarly-sized placentals.
"it takes thousands of points of anatomy to make a marsupial wolf look like our dogs. "
Name just one, besides a longish snout, that makes a thylacine specifically like a dog (to the exclusion of any other mammal).
Christine Janis · 17 January 2014
phhht · 17 January 2014
Scott F · 17 January 2014
diogeneslamp0 · 18 January 2014
Rolf · 19 January 2014
Robert is absolutely ignorant about genetics. His view is that the Tree of Life is irrelevant, and from that follows that the Eye Color Predictor also is useless, because genetics are scientific nonsense.
That is because to him, facts are irrelevant. His own thinking can explain any subject in the world and that's that. It is so simple, why can't we see it?
Keelyn · 19 January 2014
DS · 19 January 2014
Keelyn · 19 January 2014
Scott F · 19 January 2014
Robert Byers · 19 January 2014
Robert Byers · 19 January 2014
Robert Byers · 19 January 2014
DS · 19 January 2014
So that would be a no. You have no evidence of any kind. No photographs, no morphology, no characters, no genetic data, nothing. Zip, nada, zilch, All you have are your ignorant, unsubstantiated opinions. All you can do is repeat them endlessly, even after real experts prove that you are full of crap. Do yourself a favor bobby, go away. You're not fooling anyone. I suspect you aren't even fooling yourself.
diogeneslamp0 · 19 January 2014
j. biggs · 20 January 2014
So Robert, you are probably aware that dingo's also live in Australia. In your opinion are thylacine "marsupial wolves" or dingos more closely related to the gray wolf?
Robert Byers · 20 January 2014
DS · 20 January 2014
Yea man, don't ya know nothin. Marsupialization was only gonna happen instantaneously for a little while. After that, not so much. Why, because bobby made it up that's why. Now stop askin inconvenient questions that put the lie to all his nonsense.
eric · 20 January 2014
eric · 20 January 2014
eric · 20 January 2014
Scott F · 20 January 2014
Henry J · 20 January 2014
One thing I don't get, is if a person feels that placentals could evolve into marsupials in a relatively short time frame, why would that person reject the idea of egg layers evolving into both marsupials and placentals? (Not to mention monotremes which are still egg layers.)
(I'm sort of guessing here that both those groups evolved independently from egg layers; i.e., they acquired the ability to "hatch" the eggs inside without bothering to lay them somewhere first.)
Scott F · 20 January 2014
DS · 21 January 2014
Well see that's what you get when you are completely ignorant of all of the evidence and wish to remain so. You just make up nonsense and invent scenarios because they sound good to you. Eventually you have to realize that it is all a house of cards, nothing but inconsistencies and contradictions that no one with even a modicum of knowledge would ever be fooled by. If you want to make up stories to explain the facts, first you have to be familiar the facts. robert is unable and unwilling to do this. He thinks that people will feel sorry for him and give him a pass, but that isn't going to happen. Asking him to explain himself is useless. He probably has no idea what he means and he will just make up more nonsense to cover up that fact. The more nonsense he shouts, the clearer it becomes that he has no idea what he is talking about. I suspect that is why they allow him to continue to post here, He's kind of like a poster child I guess.
eric · 21 January 2014
DS · 21 January 2014
You're right, they probably do think something like this. But deep down inside they know how dishonest and ridiculous it is. If not, why haven't they tested their "hypothesis"? Why hasn't robert taken up the challenge? Why hasn't any other YEC done the test? If they did and the answer was that their "hypothesis" was orders of magnitude worse at explaining the observed distribution, would they admit it? Would they change their minds? Would they be convinced by the evidence? If not, why should anyone take them seriously? Why should they take themselves seriously? Her is their big chance to gain some modicum of respectability. Step up to the plat or admit that you are not in the game.
diogeneslamp0 · 21 January 2014
Creationists have been around in their current form for 100 years, and in a century the best "weakness" of evolution they have, is that (as Byers says) there's a marsupial horse which looks exactly like a horse because it is a horse, and there's a marsupial tapir which looks exactly like a tapir because it is a tapir; but he won't show us the photos of either. Trust Byers, they really do exist though, just no photos anywhere ever.
Also, there's a marsupial wolf which looks exactly like a wolf because it is a wolf, also called the thylacine; and there's a marsupial tiger which looks exactly like a tiger because it is a tiger, that's the thylacine too; and since a wolf is a thylacine, and a thylacine is a tiger, therefore, a wolf is a tiger.
Darwin is finished.
Also, the thylacine differs from a placental wolf in only one detail, according to Byers. Of course, Christine Janis then listed a couple dozen differences between them, but what would she know, she only does comparative anatomy for a living; and also, she's just the authority that Byers himself was citing when he told us everything he knows about marsupial anatomy he learned from Christine when she was on Nova, but Robert didn't know it was her, his authority, when he grandly told her he knows more about comparative anatomy of marsupials than the person from whom he learned what little he knows about comparative anatomy of marsupials.
When we repeatedly listed a couple dozen anatomical differences between the thylacine and the wolf, which Byers had previously said didn't exist, he next insisted he knew about them all along, but they're all minor differences, which can easily be produced by evolving via super-fast evolution, therefore, there's no evolution. Checkmate, atheists.
Plus, Byers said YEC predicts there would be no elephants on Pacific Islands, when he thought they didn't exist. Then he said no problem for YEC, when we told him several existed.
Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain.
apokryltaros · 21 January 2014
Robert Byers · 21 January 2014
Robert Byers · 21 January 2014
Dave Luckett · 21 January 2014
"Some mechanism" is Byerstalk for "then a miracle happened", and/or "Explanations? We don' need no steenking explanations".
diogeneslamp0 · 21 January 2014
diogeneslamp0 · 21 January 2014
AltairIV · 22 January 2014
DS · 22 January 2014
The deeper he gets the dumber he gets. Keep goin robert. You'll make a new route to china at this rate.
eric · 22 January 2014
DS · 22 January 2014
no man, you got it all wrong. your not readin the bible literal enough. god told the animals to go forth and multiply because they didn't know how to do division or subtraction yet! so it's more like a bad episode of Welcome Back Kotter.
Henry J · 22 January 2014
Well at least they didn't have to do exponents...
Robert Byers · 23 January 2014
AltairIV · 23 January 2014
Just Bob · 23 January 2014
Rolf · 24 January 2014
ksplawn · 24 January 2014
I don't know how he can be the #1 authority. He's not even Cubic and Wisest Human: that's Gene Ray.