Understanding creationism, IV:<br/>An insider's guide by a former young-Earth creationist

Posted 18 June 2014 by

By David MacMillan. 4. Transitional fossils. One of the most common and most frustrating creationist objections to evolution is the claim that there are no "missing links" or "transitional fossils" required by evolution. This claim is made without qualification, particularly in presentations to lay or church audiences. As unthinkable as it might seem, creationists really do believe that transitional fossils simply do not exist. On this basis, they conclude that evolution must be false. They maintain this completely erroneous view by consistently misrepresenting what a transitional fossil actually is. Creationists don't deny that Archaeopteryx, Pakicetus, Tiktaalik, Australopithecus, and similar prominent examples of transitional fossils exist; they rather argue that these are not "true" transitional fossils. The last section dealt with misconceptions about evolution on the population level: the "where" of evolutionary change. This installment will focus on misconceptions about how evolutionary change happens over time. Evolution is properly understood as "descent with modification", where the critical word is "descent". The life on earth today is not the same as the life which was once on earth, the life we descended from. As this series has already illustrated, creationists do not dispute the concept of change; rather, they dispute the concept of descent in the way it is described by the theory of evolution. Young-earth creationists believe that all life, living and fossil, can be grouped into a series of families – they call them baramins, a made-up Hebrew word for "created kinds" – which all existed together at the same time from the very beginning. They use this completely artificial understanding of our planet's biosphere in generating their concept of a "missing link": in order for something to be a "true" transitional form under their model, it would have to be something halfway between two separate created "kinds". Because they automatically assign every species to a particular created kind and only to that created kind, their "transitional form" is something that could never exist. The usual parodies of evolutionary transitional fossils, like Ray Comfort's infamous crocoduck, are openly tongue-in-cheek. But because creationists see all animals as belonging to individual, immutable kinds, they represent evolution as "change from one 'kind' to another" claiming that evolution predicts we should see transitions between their "created kinds": for example, a fossil that is midway between a dog and a cat. Just as with living species, all fossil species are placed within strict "created kinds", allowing creationists to maintain the illusion that nothing is ever "in-between". This characterization is a complete misunderstanding of what evolution actually predicts. No one expects one existing species to evolve into another. The "kinds" alleged by creationism simply do not exist in the evolutionary model; there is no line between one family and another that a transitional form needs to straddle. What creationists don't recognize is that the theory of evolution does not predict "transitional" fossils at all – at least, not in the way creationists expect. Evolutionary theory does not predict that there will be "normal" fossils most of the time, while chimaera-like "transitional" fossils will appear tucked in-between. Evolution has no general prediction about a unique class of transitional fossils. Instead, evolution makes predictions about the specific morphology, age, and location of the individual fossils it expects to discover. It bases these individual predictions on other specific fossils that have already been discovered.When morphology and a variety of other factors indicate that one particular species is the distant ancestor of another particular species, evolutionary principles can be used to predict the attributes of one or more intermediate species. These predictions can be directly employed to make new discoveries; Tiktaalik, the transitional form between lobe-finned fish and all tetrapods, was found in the exact region in the exact range of strata that evolution had predicted it would be found. Adding to the confusion, creationists also erroneously assume that in order for a species to be truly intermediate, it must contain parts that are only partly functional – half-working lungs in fish, half-formed wings in theropod dinosaurs, and so forth. This assumption is another misunderstanding about evolutionary descent. In order for a new trait to become fixed in a population in the first place, the trait must be maximally adapted to the environment. Evolution thus does not predict functionless or half-functioning intermediate organs and morphologies, but rather organs which are fully optimized to their environment but are repurposed by a later organism as part of a different design. For example, the human appendix is evidence for evolution not because it is functionless (it does, in fact, have a function), but because it was adapted from the cecum, which provided a different function to our ancestors. All life is full of little bits and pieces showing how evolution has adapted different structures for different purposes in its universal descent. Yet to creationists, none of this is "true" evidence for evolution, because they imagine that "true" evolution would produce functionless structures. Functionless structures, of course, are the one thing evolution cannot manufacture. In applying this belief, creationists invariably move the goalposts. Any hypothetical function, no matter how minor or speculative, is taken to mean that the morphology in question couldn't have been transitional. Even if they can't think of a function, they'll still hold out that there could be a function, and so it's not proven to be transitional – all while completely misunderstanding what a transitional form really is. These two objections – that a given fossil isn't "really" transitional because it's "not in-between two kinds" or because all its organs are fully functioning – are recycled over and over every time a new intermediate fossil is discovered. Even when a new species is discovered exactly matching a specific evolutionary prediction, it is still discounted using these two objections. Alternatively, creationists announce that the new species is a new "kind" and then point out the two spaces on either side of it as further "missing links". In their eyes, every new link means there are twice as many holes to fill. Sometimes this misconception can be dismantled by inquiring exactly what sort of transitional fossils the creationist thinks evolution expects. "Describe the specific attributes of a fossil which you would consider evidence for evolutionary common descent." The creationist will either fail to come up with anything (demonstrating that his model is set up to explain away all evidence, no matter how obvious), or will describe something that evolution would not predict in the first place.

149 Comments

mattdance18 · 18 June 2014

Another great post in the series. Creationism really is about what we philosophers call "essentialism" in biology. And if there's anything the actual biological evidence mitigates against, it's the idea of "essences."

One quibble: you write that "Functionless structures, of course, are the one thing evolution cannot manufacture." But is that true? I was thinking of cave-dwelling species specifically. Many cave-dwelling fish, for example, are blind -- but they still retain useless eyes, often with sockets fully covered by skin and scales. It seems to me that evolution can explain precisely how they got these otherwise unusual features. Now, natural selection, as a key component of evolution, can't produce functionless structures: functional structures are precisely what get selected for. But as long as a trait is selectively neutral, it could lose functionality over time, with mutations accumulating and bearing the stamp of a past functional history. So the functionless eyes of cavefish are explained by evolution, it's just that qua functionless, they weren't produced by natural selection.

It seems to me that creationism will of course have no biologically coherent explanation for the scaled-over useless eye sockets of blind cavefish. Still, I thought they might provide a good example of evolution being capable of explaining lack of function in addition to being capable of explaining function.

Henry J · 18 June 2014

And when a new intermediate is discovered, the number of gaps has increases by one!!!111!!!eleven!!!

Katharine · 18 June 2014

Just for the sake of curiosity, I wonder what we would expect a fossil of a creature that's in the process of changing from one unrelated "kind" to another--say, a human to a wolf--to even look like. If something matching that description were ever found, by their own criteria and upside-down fantasy-world logic, would creationists have to relent that fossilized evidence of werewolves "proves" evolution?

In addition to the "moving the goalpost" strategy that you mentioned above, David, I've also heard the argument (probably more ID than biblical literalist) that Archaeopteryx represents an evolutionary dead-end (presumably from the fact that the individual died, and we don't see any more of them today) and that therefore it could not be considered a "link" in the transition from therapod dinosaurs to birds.

Even without ancient DNA, of course there's no way for scientists to prove the dead-end claim erroneous in any way that creationists can't insist in perpetuity is merely their "interpretation". (And how do they know that individual didn't reproduce before it died anyway? Were they there?) It simply becomes a convenient way of casting doubt, without even addressing the relationship between therapods and birds at all, that unfortunately appears to be incredibly effective.

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad · 18 June 2014

What they never quite get around to doing is coming up with an explanation for "transitional fossils." Archaeopteryx is the perfect example of the limits of evolution, that if a terrestrial-bound dinosaur evolves flight, it is going to be far from an ideal flyer at first. Today's birds fly great, but Archaeopteryx had a long way to go to become even very good at flying, let alone more or less optimized for flight as today's birds are.

Is Archaeopteryx some weird experiment by a rather limited designer? Even if so, why not include some pterosaur innovations, or bat innovations (presumably bats could be on the drawing board)? And why not put feathers on bats, given how wonderfully sculpted for aerodynamics feathers can evolve to be? No, Archaeopteryx is just what you'd expect of something that hasn't evolved to anything like optimal functionality, and nothing like you'd expect of either an omniscient designer or even a kludge (even kludgy designers aren't limited by heredity, as evolution, as Archaeopteryx, is).

But actually explaining organisms has never been an interest of creationists, including IDists. Dumping on the one meaningful explanation is all that interests them.

Glen Davidson

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad · 18 June 2014

One quibble: you write that “Functionless structures, of course, are the one thing evolution cannot manufacture.” But is that true? I was thinking of cave-dwelling species specifically. Many cave-dwelling fish, for example, are blind – but they still retain useless eyes, often with sockets fully covered by skin and scales. It seems to me that evolution can explain precisely how they got these otherwise unusual features. Now, natural selection, as a key component of evolution, can’t produce functionless structures: functional structures are precisely what get selected for. But as long as a trait is selectively neutral, it could lose functionality over time, with mutations accumulating and bearing the stamp of a past functional history. So the functionless eyes of cavefish are explained by evolution, it’s just that qua functionless, they weren’t produced by natural selection.
I thought about that, too, but noted that David stated it correctly, functionless structures cannot be "manufactured" by evolution. Functional structures can be rendered functionless by evolution, yet they aren't "manufactured" (not sure that's the most fortuitous word for it, but ok) by evolution. Glen Davidson

callahanpb · 18 June 2014

mattdance18 said: One quibble: you write that "Functionless structures, of course, are the one thing evolution cannot manufacture."
I was thinking the same thing. As you point out, it would apply to any kind of vestigial organ. Some structure will be preserved for generations even after the environment is no longer selecting for it. This is confounded by the fact that there might be new selective pressures that preserve the modified structure (legs to wings to flippers, etc.) so it may be very hard to find a truly vestigial organ. I think another related issue is "spandrels" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spandrel_(biology) though I admit I'm getting far afield of what I know. But the point is that a structure may be the consequence of other structures that are selected for even if the structure itself does not have a "function."

callahanpb · 18 June 2014

Functional structures can be rendered functionless by evolution, yet they aren’t “manufactured”
I treat "rendered functionless" as equivalent to "manufactured" for present purposes. If I "manufacture" a chair from a tree, I render a lot of other things functionless. To distinguish between "positive" and "negative" transformations seems almost unsupportable in the context of scientific definitions.

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad · 18 June 2014

Functional structures can be rendered functionless by evolution, yet they aren’t “manufactured” (not sure that’s the most fortuitous word for it, but ok) by evolution.
Just to be clear, they're "manufactured" by evolution as functional structures, and aren't "manufactured" by evolution as functionless structures. Glen Davidson

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad · 18 June 2014

callahanpb said:
Functional structures can be rendered functionless by evolution, yet they aren’t “manufactured”
I treat "rendered functionless" as equivalent to "manufactured" for present purposes. If I "manufacture" a chair from a tree, I render a lot of other things functionless. To distinguish between "positive" and "negative" transformations seems almost unsupportable in the context of scientific definitions.
Not really. Selection for, selection against, and nearly-neutral nearly "non-selection," of genes, is routinely assessed. Positive selection is crucial to contemporary evolutionary theory. Glen Davidson

david.starling.macmillan · 18 June 2014

callahanpb said:
Functional structures can be rendered functionless by evolution, yet they aren’t “manufactured”
I treat "rendered functionless" as equivalent to "manufactured" for present purposes. If I "manufacture" a chair from a tree, I render a lot of other things functionless. To distinguish between "positive" and "negative" transformations seems almost unsupportable in the context of scientific definitions.
Good catch. This was a late edit; I obviously wasn't quite clear enough. The statement was intended to reference the creationist definition of "functionless" structures -- what they are "expecting" to find. Blind cave fish with flaps of skin over their defunct eyes? Well, the eyes COULD be used to see if not for the flaps of skin, so...not functionless. The flaps of skin protect the eyes because they aren't needed, so...not functionless. We recognize that evolution is not at all an upward process; it is an adaptive process, and points in no particular direction at any time. So if a particular structure is not useful in an environment, natural selection and mutation can render it less of a liability. But creationists move the goalposts on "functionless" just the same as they move the goalposts on "information" and "transitional" and every other term in evolutionary biology, so no structure will ever satisfy the creationist definition. Of course, they will also sometimes say "well, sure, blind cave fish are evolving, but that's a downward process; evolution requires an upward process." Which, again, is a misconception. They demand functionless structures that at the same time are "upward" in their view of the complexity of life. It's an impossible definition.
Henry J said: And when a new intermediate is discovered, the number of gaps has increases by one!!!111!!!eleven!!!
Exactly! One on either side!
Katharine said: Just for the sake of curiosity, I wonder what we would expect a fossil of a creature that's in the process of changing from one unrelated "kind" to another--say, a human to a wolf--to even look like. If something matching that description were ever found, by their own criteria and upside-down fantasy-world logic, would creationists have to relent that fossilized evidence of werewolves "proves" evolution?
Exactly. See the crocoduck. The crocoduck was tongue-in-cheek, as I said, but they really don't have a clear picture of what they're actually looking for. Ask them what they'd accept as a "true" transitional form, then stand back and enjoy the show.

TomS · 18 June 2014

My favorite transitional fossil is Morganodon because:
1) It is one of our relatives
2) Its double-articulated jaw was sometimes considered, before its appearance in a fossil, a problem for evolution
3) It is an example of the evolution of "irreducible complexity"
4) From jaw bone to middle ear bone is a major change in function - adaptation
5) There are abundant fossils of different species throughout the world
6) The connection between jaw and middle ear was first observed on the basis of embryology, before "On the Origin of Species"
7) There are popular descriptions of it - "Earful of jaw" and "Your Inner Fish" - which make it easy to understand

Jim Hofmann · 18 June 2014

I wrote a bit about this issue lately, if anyone is interested:

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11191-014-9696-8

April 2014
A Tale of Two Crocoducks: Creationist Misuses of Molecular Evolution

The demand for transitional forms is really even worse than you make it out to be. It fails to take into account the move to cladistic analysis that has been in place for decades.

callahanpb · 18 June 2014

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad said: Not really. Selection for, selection against, and nearly-neutral nearly "non-selection," of genes, is routinely assessed. Positive selection is crucial to contemporary evolutionary theory. Glen Davidson
As a non-biologist, I'll take your word for it that there is some distinction to be made, but I think a lot of things may look like "structure" to a human observer but are neutral to selection. I've often wondered this about the patterns on some mollusk shells that look like the Sierpinski gasket (or Pascal's triangle mod 2 if you prefer). http://www.gastropods.com/9/Shell_4459.shtml has a picture. Maybe these patterns confer some advantage, but even if they don't, they can be created by very simple mathematical processes (e.g. 1-D xor cellular automata) and I would guess (again IANAB) that something similar could happen during development in local cell interactions. So if the only explanation is that it is a neutral phenotype, I would find that believable, rather than insisting it has a function. I think this is true of many patterns--e.g. the diversity of color and variegation in flowers (I realize some colors are selected for, not to mention very elaborate mimicry in some cases). You could counter that highly variable surface patterns are not "structure" but that seems to be headed in the direction of "no true Scotsman". I can certainly accept a qualified view of David's statement, namely that the presence of a structure that isn't an incidental consequence of development (like shell patterns) suggests that these structures have a function or at least had some function in ancestors.

Mike Elzinga · 18 June 2014

Much of this form of “argumentation” against evolution was hammered out by Morris and Gish at the Institute for Creation “Research” beginning back in the early 1970s.

When Duane Gish was harassing teachers in Kalamazoo, Michigan, his favorite tactic was to hit teachers with bogus claims about science in the areas in which a teacher would not likely have expertise. So, for example, Morris’s second law of thermodynamics argument against evolution would constantly be brought up against biology teachers.

I have known some of the teachers who have experienced Gish’s unannounced appearances in their classrooms. They report that he was an aggressive bully. This trait shows up in the videos of Gish debating scientists on college campus venues.

It seemed clear to a number of us back then that these tactics were deliberate taunting in order to provoke debates and interactions that got them publicity and a free ride on the back of a teacher or a scientist.

Gish, for example, never responded to a devastating refutation of any of his “arguments,” instead, simply launching into his famous Gish Gallop as though he had won the point. I suspect this was – and still is – a tactic designed to infuriate their opponents and get them to show anger in a debate.

I still suspect that the leaders of this ID/creationist movement know they are misleading their followers. They have had enough interactions with scientists’ attempts to correct their misrepresentations and misconceptions; and they most certainly have had time to correct their misrepresentations and misconceptions. But this they never do.

Instead, they double down and “up the ante” by jumping into advanced ideas and pretending to be able to argue with any expert. It is a tactic that makes them look like “universal geniuses” to their followers; and their followers think they can do the same thing by Googling the Internet for papers that they think “refute” their opponents. It becomes a game of phony posturing without any conceptual understanding of the science.

The “debating” that goes on, whether on campus or on the Internet, is a game of trying to inflict psychological pain on “enemies;” and the ID/creationist taunting is designed to sucker others into paying attention to the ID/creationist.

This is what Gish did; he liked to inflict pain on teachers in front of their students, and there was an element of hatred and distain behind it. He even admitted that he was a “bulldog” in this debating style. This tells us a lot about his “religion.”

callahanpb · 18 June 2014

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad said: Selection for, selection against, and nearly-neutral nearly "non-selection," of genes, is routinely assessed. Positive selection is crucial to contemporary evolutionary theory. Glen Davidson
Just to be clear, I wasn't disputing the distinction between selecting for and selecting against. It was probably a mistake to say "positive" and "negative" even with the scare quotes, since I was not referring to any particular usage. What I meant is that the informal human distinction by which we normally say "demolish a building" rather than "construct a vacant lot" seems to get into pretty shaky philosophical territory. The building might have been a rat-infested public nuisance, and the vacant lot (if not bulldozed flat) might work out well as a BMX bike park, so did I destroy something or make something (both?). I grant that "rendered functionless" is meaningful relative to the original function, but I'm not sure how common this is compared to being repurposed into an entirely new function. In short, the distinction between "manufactured" and "rendered functionless" is getting too teleological for me, though I'll leave open that there might be some rigorous form of this known to biologists.

Joe Felsenstein · 18 June 2014

The discussion here in terms of intermediates between creationist "kinds" is illuminating. However one should be careful to say what "transitional form" does and does not mean in evolutionary biology. 50 years ago evolutionary biologists were accustomed to concluding that any "transitional form" really was the ancestral species. I see some of that thinking here, particularly in the comments. But since the 1980s it has become clearer that most of these forms are not the ancestral species, but are cousins of the ancestors. They are "transitional" in that they contain transitional combinations of character states, but they are not the exact lineage that is ancestral to the group.

Sure, Homo erectus (or Homo ergaster) is probably our ancestor, but in most other cases the "transitional" fossils we find are not on the ancestral line -- but they do give us great insights into what the ancestors looked like. In the case of hominids there has been enough searching that we can be reasonably confident that we have the ancestor.

In that sense, the word "transitional" is unfortunate, because it does imply to the listener or reader that we have caught the lineage in the act of making the transition. But that's not what "transitional" now means.

Katharine · 18 June 2014

Where can I get tickets to that show, David? Because I so want to see it live.
Joe Felsenstein said: In that sense, the word "transitional" is unfortunate, because it does imply to the listener or reader that we have caught the lineage in the act of making the transition. But that's not what "transitional" now means.
Absolutely. That's exactly what I hear when I listen to the creationist argument. Though I can't believe that creationists honestly expect to ever find evidence of organisms matching their definition of transitional (in which "transitional" and "kind" or "species" are mutually exclusive, and you can basically argue that anything that gets fossilized represents a fixed species of an established "kind" anyway). That would "prove" evolution according to their logic, and they already know evolution is a conspiracy and bunk. It reeks of the sort of Lamarckism that biologists gave up long ago, yet I suppose is exactly what you would argue if you believed (or wanted the ignorant masses to believe) your opponent was still going by the science of the 1850s.

Scott F · 18 June 2014

I believe that an argument could be made that many of the appendages and colorations that appear to be sexually selected are in fact "functionless". The peacock's tail comes to mind, or a rooster's comb. The only "function" is to attract a mate, even though it may actually be detrimental to the individual in question.

Admittedly, one does have to attract a mate in order for evolution to have offspring to operate on, but simply catching the eye of a fickle mate seems a rather weak "function".

John Harshman · 18 June 2014

Scott F: I think you're making a false distinction. Function, in any evolutionary sense, must refer to the conferring of some kind of reproductive advantage. A peacock's heart keeps its cells nourished, and without it the peacock would have very poor reproductive success. A peacock's tail attracts the ladies, and without it the peacock would have very poor reproductive success. OK, without the former you're dead and without the latter you're still alive but without progeny, but they both look exactly the same to selection; the only score that matters is reproductive success. And if the tail were detrimental to the individual, it would be selected against. Any hypothetical cost in reduced survival is more than compensated by the benefit of increased mating success; has to be, or the tail wouldn't be there.

TomS · 18 June 2014

Katharine said: Though I can't believe that creationists honestly expect to ever find evidence of organisms matching their definition of transitional (in which "transitional" and "kind" or "species" are mutually exclusive, and you can basically argue that anything that gets fossilized represents a fixed species of an established "kind" anyway).
And I think that for many people, even among people who accept evolution, the only conceivable evidence is in fossils.

callahanpb · 18 June 2014

John Harshman said: Scott F: I think you're making a false distinction.
IANAB but I agree with this. Other signaling structures that are only functional in an ecological context are mimicry, and markings that warn that an animal is venomous (whether it is or isn't). I think the key distinction is whether they are subject to selective pressure. Actually, there is probably some circularity here in that any deviation from normal affects the perception of health in mate selection. So I wonder if completely "useless" features get preserved just because their absence would suggest the presents of other problems. Of course, the personal problems of super-powered mutants are sufficiently covered comic books and SF to obviate any further discussion here. :) (And don't talk to me about my trouble finding the right hat to cover up that telepathy lobe.)

Scott F · 18 June 2014

John Harshman said: Scott F: I think you're making a false distinction. Function, in any evolutionary sense, must refer to the conferring of some kind of reproductive advantage. A peacock's heart keeps its cells nourished, and without it the peacock would have very poor reproductive success. A peacock's tail attracts the ladies, and without it the peacock would have very poor reproductive success. OK, without the former you're dead and without the latter you're still alive but without progeny, but they both look exactly the same to selection; the only score that matters is reproductive success. And if the tail were detrimental to the individual, it would be selected against. Any hypothetical cost in reduced survival is more than compensated by the benefit of increased mating success; has to be, or the tail wouldn't be there.
I know, I know. If something is selectable, it is (almost by definition) "functional" in some reproductive sense. It's just that "looking good" seems like such a "trivial" criteria. "Looking good" doesn't feel very functional. In contrast, there are creatures such as bowerbirds, where the need to be more clever or dexterous in order to attract a mate (rather than simply being prettier), might (conceivably) have an unintended side effect of increasing intelligence in the species. ("Unintended" as in the female bird doesn't have an intention of choosing a "smarter" mate.) But I would disagree with this: "...if the tail were detrimental to the individual, it would be selected against." As I understand it, that isn't necessarily true. The larger tail could indeed be detrimental to the individual, but the selection pressure to attract a mate could (and most likely does) outweigh the detrimental effects of the large tail. There are lots of species (particularly insects) where the individual is literally sacrificed for the survival of the species.

Scott F · 18 June 2014

David MacMillan said: This characterization is a complete misunderstanding of what evolution actually predicts. No one expects one existing species to evolve into another. The “kinds” alleged by creationism simply do not exist in the evolutionary model; there is no line between one family and another that a transitional form needs to straddle.

I think your Figure 1 from the previous thread addresses this issue quite nicely. However, your point here is slightly different. It's hard for us to remember that the Creationist sees hard boundaries between different "kinds", and that they don't understand "descent with modification" from ancestors. By definition, your ancestors are the same "kind" as you are, as will your progeny be, ad infinitum. This also gets to the heart of the related Creationist's fanciful notion of speciation, that the first male "X" (born to parents of a different kind) has to wait around for (or be lucky enough to find) the first female "X" in order produce the new "X" "kind". The Creationist sees "speciation" as a form of "special creation", bridging in one generation any conceivable gap between one "kind" and another. Your previous Figure 1 shows more clearly that this is not the case, shows both how and why it is not the case. I have to say it isn't just a Creationist notion either. It is a compelling argument, and one that I struggled to reconcile with Evolution. It is a simplistic childlike notion that is (what I perceive to be) the "default" notion, if you don't think about it too hard. Just as with deep space, deep time is a hard notion for people to grasp. People see things as (relatively) unchanging, and because of that they "naturally" assume that things don't change much over time. Even if you take a science class in high school, evolution isn't something that you can "demonstrate" in a simple lab experiment. But then that's why we're here on this web site, isn't it. It's in the Creationist's (blind, short term) interest to ensure that the population remains as uneducated as possible, in order that they cannot question authority.

ashleyhr · 18 June 2014

YEC denial of feathered dinosaurs is exactly the kind of thing here. Either they were really birds (if the feathers found on fossils are undeniable) or else they were dinosaurs but lacked true feathers ...
http://forums.bcseweb.org.uk/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=2955&hilit=yutyrannus

ashleyhr · 18 June 2014

If the Christian god exists and if the Bible is his true word to humanity, why is every argument made by young earth (Biblical) creationists against any unbiblical science invariably nonsense?

david.starling.macmillan · 18 June 2014

ashleyhr said: YEC denial of feathered dinosaurs is exactly the kind of thing here. Either they were really birds (if the feathers found on fossils are undeniable) or else they were dinosaurs but lacked true feathers ... http://forums.bcseweb.org.uk/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=2955&hilit=yutyrannus
Or, more recently, some YECs have taken to seriously suggesting that God created a “feathered-bipedal-reptile kind” as a separate baramin from the various dinosaur baramins and the various avian baramins. Not even kidding. That’s how they approach these things. Ten years ago, they insisted that no feathered dinosaurs could ever exist…now, feathered dinosaurs are their own special created kind. Their goalposts are on wheels.
ashleyhr said: If the Christian god exists and if the Bible is his true word to humanity, why is every argument made by young earth (Biblical) creationists against any unbiblical science invariably nonsense?
Because there is no "unbiblical" science, only "contrary-to-the-privileged-underinformed-arbitrarily-invented-interpretation-of-the-Bible-and-uncomfortable-for-various-reasons science".

Rolf · 19 June 2014

Scott F said: I believe that an argument could be made that many of the appendages and colorations that appear to be sexually selected are in fact "functionless". The peacock's tail comes to mind, or a rooster's comb. The only "function" is to attract a mate, even though it may actually be detrimental to the individual in question. Admittedly, one does have to attract a mate in order for evolution to have offspring to operate on, but simply catching the eye of a fickle mate seems a rather weak "function".
Just another example of how evolution is not about 'creating' optimal solutions, it is about incorporating whatever variations available that may confer a reproductive advantage? Couldn't that result in any species ending up in an evolutionary cul-de-sac? Like our own seems likely to be?

Rolf · 19 June 2014

Scott F said:
There are lots of species (particularly insects) where the individual is literally sacrificed for the survival of the species.
If you are thinking in therms of colonies like ants, is not each individual ant except the queen analoguos to the cells of a body; they constitute limbs (and organs?) in the process of keeping her alive to propagate her and her "mate's" genes?

Dave Luckett · 19 June 2014

With the eusocial insects, the queen's genes survive and the queen lives to reproduce because the other "castes" are selected to optimise not their own survival, because they do not reproduce, but the queen's survival, because she is the only one who does reproduce. Therefore, those other "castes" are selected for feeding and nurturing the queen and caring for her offspring, and for self-sacrifice where necessary in the defence of same.

Of course, before Steve leaps in, the word "caste" is a metaphor, an extension and specialisation of what it means in human society.

TomS · 19 June 2014

david.starling.macmillan said:
ashleyhr said: YEC denial of feathered dinosaurs is exactly the kind of thing here. Either they were really birds (if the feathers found on fossils are undeniable) or else they were dinosaurs but lacked true feathers ... http://forums.bcseweb.org.uk/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=2955&hilit=yutyrannus
Or, more recently, some YECs have taken to seriously suggesting that God created a “feathered-bipedal-reptile kind” as a separate baramin from the various dinosaur baramins and the various avian baramins. Not even kidding. That’s how they approach these things. Ten years ago, they insisted that no feathered dinosaurs could ever exist…now, feathered dinosaurs are their own special created kind. Their goalposts are on wheels.
When I was first introduced to YEC, I would have thought that all fossils would be rejected as something either constructed by paleontologists from funny-shaped rocks or a something planted by Satan. So I was pleased to see that the YECs have made that accommodation to science. And that they can move to accept feathered bipedal reptile as being real makes me think that maybe there will be a time when there will be an acceptance of "reptile"-bird evolution. Maybe there is some other Biblical explanation that someone will interpret the Bible as literally saying. (Like how the Bible really says that the Earth is a planet.)
ashleyhr said: If the Christian god exists and if the Bible is his true word to humanity, why is every argument made by young earth (Biblical) creationists against any unbiblical science invariably nonsense?
Because there is no "unbiblical" science, only "contrary-to-the-privileged-underinformed-arbitrarily-invented-interpretation-of-the-Bible-and-uncomfortable-for-various-reasons science".
And, after all, how uncomfortable is it to say that birds are descended from dinosaurs?

Dave Lovell · 19 June 2014

Scott F said: But I would disagree with this: "...if the tail were detrimental to the individual, it would be selected against." As I understand it, that isn't necessarily true. The larger tail could indeed be detrimental to the individual, but the selection pressure to attract a mate could (and most likely does) outweigh the detrimental effects of the large tail.
Semantics surely. The larger tail may be detrimental to the survival of the individual without being detrimental to its overall reproductive success. Hence "...if the tail were detrimental to the individual, it would be selected against." is true.

John Harshman · 19 June 2014

Scott F said: I know, I know. If something is selectable, it is (almost by definition) "functional" in some reproductive sense. It's just that "looking good" seems like such a "trivial" criteria. "Looking good" doesn't feel very functional.
Sure, but can you see that' just your personal prejudice? It has nothing to do with the only operational evolutionary meaning of "functional". You may personally devalue sexual selection, but the opinions of potential mates are just as much parts of the selective environment as climate or predators.
In contrast, there are creatures such as bowerbirds, where the need to be more clever or dexterous in order to attract a mate (rather than simply being prettier), might (conceivably) have an unintended side effect of increasing intelligence in the species. ("Unintended" as in the female bird doesn't have an intention of choosing a "smarter" mate.)
So? Are you once again setting up a value judgment in which features that (hypothetically) result in increasing intelligence are better than features that don't? By the way, you are dancing around one of the hypotheses of sexual selection: that selected features are honest signals of some otherwise adaptive characteristics. In one of its forms, this is known as the handicap principle.
But I would disagree with this: "...if the tail were detrimental to the individual, it would be selected against." As I understand it, that isn't necessarily true. The larger tail could indeed be detrimental to the individual, but the selection pressure to attract a mate could (and most likely does) outweigh the detrimental effects of the large tail. There are lots of species (particularly insects) where the individual is literally sacrificed for the survival of the species.
No individual is sacrificed for the survival of the species; that's magical thinking. Sometimes an individual's reproductive success is maximized by dying (as when some male spiders offer themselves as resources to the female to whom they have just contributed sperm, or when worker ants sacrifice themselves in order to raise more sisters). And in regard to the tail, it is necessarily true that there is a net selective advantage. Notice the "net" there. Every feature, not just fancy attractive ones, has advantages and disadvantages. It's the sum of all the pluses and minuses that must be positive in order for selection to favor that feature. There's no need for it to be uniformly wonderful. Once again, the distinction between sexual selection and other sorts is purely an artifact of human perception and prejudice.

Just Bob · 19 June 2014

Dave Lovell said: Semantics surely. The larger tail may be detrimental to the survival of the individual without being detrimental to its overall reproductive success. Hence "...if the tail were detrimental to the individual, it would be selected against." is true.
That's a point that many, especially creationists, miss. There's not just one selection pressure working for or against a particular character at one time. There could be several or many. Some obvious pressures that have to be selecting AGAINST the peacock's tail are metabolic cost, both in making and maintaining it and in carrying it around. It also slows the bird down when escaping predators. But at the same time it's selected FOR by, obviously, attracting the babes and getting its genes passed on. It may even offer some survival advantage to the individual in serving to startle predators, with all those huge eyespots, and in making the cock look much bigger. [What are you snickering at?] IANB, but my off-the-cuff hypothesis is that for any heritable and selectable trait there are selection pressures, both FOR and AGAINST, that COME AND GO. Predators, lack of food, competing species, weather, shelter, competition for mates, camouflage, diseases, parasites, and many other changing environmental factors are at work at any time. If a particular factor is not impacting an individual today (it's neutral), it may be the most important thing in its survival tomorrow. In my nonscientist way, I see it as a competition between selection pressures: which one is going to win out over the others today and allow the individual to breed or prevent him from passing on his heritable traits? And what wins this season, may very well be fatal next, as the environment changes. It's sort of an ongoing selection-of-the-strongest of the selection pressures. Evolution is going to select whatever is working WELL ENOUGH at the moment to allow breeding and daily survival. But the rules are always changing. Be flexible (as a species) i.e., able to evolve, or die.

david.starling.macmillan · 19 June 2014

Like one of this points over on this i09 article emphasizes, "Survival of the fittest" does not mean fitness. It means "best fit". You'll survive if you fit your environment; you won't if you don't.

Condorcet · 19 June 2014

As a non-biologist, I'll take your word for it that there is some distinction to be made, but I think a lot of things may look like "structure" to a human observer but are neutral to selection. I've often wondered this about the patterns on some mollusk shells that look like the Sierpinski gasket (or Pascal's triangle mod 2 if you prefer). http://www.gastropods.com/9/Shell_4459.shtml has a picture. Maybe these patterns confer some advantage, but even if they don't, they can be created by very simple mathematical processes (e.g. 1-D xor cellular automata) and I would guess (again IANAB) that something similar could happen during development in local cell interactions. So if the only explanation is that it is a neutral phenotype, I would find that believable, rather than insisting it has a function. I think this is true of many patterns--e.g. the diversity of color and variegation in flowers (I realize some colors are selected for, not to mention very elaborate mimicry in some cases). You could counter that highly variable surface patterns are not "structure" but that seems to be headed in the direction of "no true Scotsman". I can certainly accept a qualified view of David's statement, namely that the presence of a structure that isn't an incidental consequence of development (like shell patterns) suggests that these structures have a function or at least had some function in ancestors.
Your comment immediately made me think of Vladimir Nabokov's lepidoptera writings (see: "Nabokov's Butterflies:Unpublished and Uncollected Writings" , ed. by Brian Boyd and "Nabokov's Blues:The Scientific Odyssey of a Literary Genius" by Kurt Johnson) Nabokov's exhaustive studies of butterfly morphology at the Harvard collections led him to remark extensively on the deep and microscopic structure of mimicry patterns and color gradients in butterfly and moth wings, which, invisible at a macroscopic level, presumably had no adaptive value discernible. Not being a lepidopterist, I cannot say whether his ideas have long since been superseded (although many specialists still use his species classifications and recognize his work as that of a true scientist rather than a gentleman amateur) and the deep structure of color and mimicry may be a required property of optics, but it does imply that adaptation is not easily defined nor is evolution always exclusively "functional".

ksplawn · 19 June 2014

david.starling.macmillan said: Like one of this points over on this i09 article emphasizes, "Survival of the fittest" does not mean fitness. It means "best fit". You'll survive if you fit your environment; you won't if you don't.
A simple way to get the distinction between meanings for "fit" might be compare natural selection with a Shape Sorter toy (those boards with differently-shaped cutouts that accept only the blocks of the same shape). No particular shape is inherently superior to the other: the round peg is just as "good" as a square block. But the filter of selection means that at any given time, only the roundest of the available shapes will do for now. So covering up all the holes shaped with corners would select for the round pegs. And at some point in the future, conditions can change. It may be that cornered shapes have the advantage, so any rounded holes should be covered and the filter will select for things like triangles, stars, and squares.

mattdance18 · 19 June 2014

Scott F said: I know, I know. If something is selectable, it is (almost by definition) "functional" in some reproductive sense. It's just that "looking good" seems like such a "trivial" criteria. "Looking good" doesn't feel very functional.
But of course, "seeming" trivial is a rather vague criterion, and "feeling" is overtly subjective. A net gain for reproductive success is a net gain for reproductive success, no matter how trivial it does or doesn't seem or how non-functional it does or doesn't feel, to you or to me or to anyone. For what it's worth, there's actually pretty strong evidence that among animals for whom visual displays are important aspects of mating, there's a correlation between the appearance of the mate to be chosen (usually males are chosen and females do the choosing, though there are exception) and other features of fitness, such as having a strong immune system. Male peacocks with large and bright and clean and well-structured tails attract mates very successfully; those whose tails are ragged, whatever the cause, fail to do so. The males with the good tails are generally healthier. And there's also the handicap principle. Male peacocks' tales make them more vulnerable to attacks from certain predators, like tigers. Any male who survives to maturity with that tale is essentially saying, "I'm such a badass that, even handicapped by this ridiculous tail, I'm doing just fine." Heck, it's not even that different among humans. There are plenty of subjective aspects with differential appeal to different individuals (eye or hair color, height or build, etc) and these make no discernible difference to fitness. But whichever sex you happen to be, and whichever sex you happen to find attractive, the odds are very strong that you will find someone whose appearance is generally fit and healthy more attractive than someone who appears sickly. And if, as a matter of reproductive success, you were trying to raise a family with someone, it's pretty clear why. Is someone with ulcerated skin sores and rotted-out teeth someone with whom you'd like to mate, let alone with whom you'd like to raise kids? It turns out -- and I think this is in Dawkins' very first book, The Selfish Gene, though I could be mistaken -- the only long-term stable arrangement is for individuals to make "honest" displays of their fitness. Dishonest displays might succeed to the extent of winning mates, but if the offspring end up less likely to survive, the dishonest displays get selected out of the gene pool. So all in all, selecting mates on the basis of appearance -- though by no means the only way to go, especially in us humans, but still a factor in mate choice, even for us humans -- is probably not as trivial as it might at first seem. Distrust your feelings!
But I would disagree with this: "...if the tail were detrimental to the individual, it would be selected against." As I understand it, that isn't necessarily true. The larger tail could indeed be detrimental to the individual, but the selection pressure to attract a mate could (and most likely does) outweigh the detrimental effects of the large tail. There are lots of species (particularly insects) where the individual is literally sacrificed for the survival of the species.
Actually there are no species, even in insects, where the individual is sacrificed for the species. There are species in which, under extreme circumstances, the individual may sacrifice itself for the good of its own reproductive success. For example: Ants (and all bees and wasps and sawflies) have a strange genetic system, thanks to the fact that females develop from fertilized eggs and males from unfertilized eggs. The result is that when a queen ant mates with a drone, her genes each have a 50% chance of winding up in their female offspring, while his genes each have a literal 100% chance of winding up in them. And the upshot of this is, the queen's daughters are on average 75% related to each other, while only 50% related to her. Female ants are genetically more closely related to their sisters than to their mothers. Now the sisters can go one of two routes, functionally. Most will become workers, while a few will become queens. And this is determined not genetically but environmentally (mainly diet). But from the workers' perspective, they will do better, in terms of reproductive success, by helping their mother to raise as many queens as they can, while foregoing reproduction themselves: they would be 75% identical to any of their sister-queens, but only 50% to their own daughters, were they to have any. (You can probably see how the asymmetries in relatedness have the potential for major strife within the colony. Queens would, in a sense, rather have been workers. Queens would also like to raise more drones, but the workers (who are only 25% related to their brothers) suppress that. Etc, etc -- it's all quite fascinating.) Anyway, the upshot is this. When a worker ant sacrifices itself so that the colony may live, she is actually improving her own reproductive fitness. She does a better job of passing on her own genes via the route of the colony than she would if she reproduced on she own. It is all-important, from her own individual perspective, that the colony survive. It's not "for the good of the species": it's for the good of the individual sacrificing herself. Moreover, colonies will wage war against other colonies of the same species. They don't just decide to get along for the good of the species: each colony is after its own good, other colonies be damned. And as noted, the good of the colony is the good of its individual workers, in terms of reproductive success. Just some thoughts.

fnxtr · 19 June 2014

Someone once updated "survival of the fittest" to "reproduction of the fit-enough", AKA "Live long enough to get laid."

TomS · 19 June 2014

mattdance18 said: Heck, it's not even that different among humans. There are plenty of subjective aspects with differential appeal to different individuals (eye or hair color, height or build, etc) and these make no discernible difference to fitness. But whichever sex you happen to be, and whichever sex you happen to find attractive, the odds are very strong that you will find someone whose appearance is generally fit and healthy more attractive than someone who appears sickly. And if, as a matter of reproductive success, you were trying to raise a family with someone, it's pretty clear why. Is someone with ulcerated skin sores and rotted-out teeth someone with whom you'd like to mate, let alone with whom you'd like to raise kids?
But if you are man attracted to another man's mate, which sort of man would you choose to compete with? The man who has marks of having been in many fights, the man who shows his distain about being hurt by wearing body-piercings and tattoos? Or the man who careful in his dress, and gives the impression that he wouldn't like to stain his neat suit? On the other hand, which would to choose as a mate? The one who would defend you, or the one who gives you expensive things? I suppose that depends on what sort of company you keep.

Katharine · 19 June 2014

TomS said: And, after all, how uncomfortable is it to say that birds are descended from dinosaurs?
Right? I never understood the difficulty either. I see a flock of wild turkeys walking through my yard, or have a staring contest with my chickens, and the dinosaur in them seems quite apparent and undeniable to me. It's a thing to celebrate, not cringe from. There are "dinosaurs" in my backyard! Common ancestry, extant dinosaur descendants, the story of perseverance through climate change that is human evolution, the formation of planets and solar systems . . . Those are amazing things to me just as they are, worthy of awe, and perfectly capable of instilling in me a sense of comfort. (And it sounds like a huge number of people who believe in theistic creation or guidance feel more or less the same way, just with a different impetus behind the whole system.) I don't have to bend over backwards, or jump through hoops, or twist myself into any other uncomfortable cliche to achieve that. Which leaves me to conclude that evolution and geologic time deniers must like being uncomfortable, because that way they can continue to believe themselves martyrs. They're free to join us on the big comfy evolution couch any time they feel like it; but, no, they insist on building their own, because they have a better idea of what a couch should look like; and then tell anyone who doesn't want to sit on the shoddy construction with them that they're a bad person with no common sense who's going to Hell. Don't blame everyone else for the troubles you make yourselves, creationists.

callahanpb · 19 June 2014

Katharine said: They’re free to join us on the big comfy evolution couch any time they feel like it;
Right, but only if they're willing to do the clock stretch. (Now there's an obscure reference I wasn't expecting to make today.)

Katharine · 19 June 2014

TomS said: On the other hand, which would to choose as a mate? The one who would defend you, or the one who gives you expensive things? I suppose that depends on what sort of company you keep.
I would choose the one who's smart or quick enough not to get into fights in the first place. But among mammals there does seem to be a sexually selective advantage to bravado--if you survive long enough to use its capital--and not competing is just about equivalent to perpetual bachelorhood, so. . . . Yeah. Another reason I'm thankful humans evolved menstruation to replace estrus.

Katharine · 19 June 2014

callahanpb said:
Katharine said: They’re free to join us on the big comfy evolution couch any time they feel like it;
Right, but only if they're willing to do the clock stretch. (Now there's an obscure reference I wasn't expecting to make today.)
YES. I'd forgotten all about that show! Thank you for that bit of nostalgia.

Richard B. Hoppe · 19 June 2014

I'm interested, but that's a heckuva paywall. 39.95? Ugh.
Jim Hofmann said: I wrote a bit about this issue lately, if anyone is interested: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11191-014-9696-8 April 2014 A Tale of Two Crocoducks: Creationist Misuses of Molecular Evolution The demand for transitional forms is really even worse than you make it out to be. It fails to take into account the move to cladistic analysis that has been in place for decades.

Jim Hofmann · 19 June 2014

The journal keeps it that way for a year. Contact me and I can get it to you privately.

mattdance18 · 19 June 2014

Katharine said:
TomS said: On the other hand, which would to choose as a mate? The one who would defend you, or the one who gives you expensive things? I suppose that depends on what sort of company you keep.
I would choose the one who's smart or quick enough not to get into fights in the first place.
Exactly! We humans obviously have different mate-choice strategies than those based on pure muscle. My point would merely be that if the strong guy with tats, or the well-dressed dapper dan, or the smart guy who avoids fighting (or any combination) didn't also seem generally healthy, he'd become a heck of lot less attractive to a potential mate. The strong guy better be able to fight without getting completely messed up (or have evidence of when to put on the brakes); the dapper fellow better not be a nervous and neurotic mess; the smart guy better not be so weak that he can't work. Etc.
Another reason I'm thankful humans evolved menstruation to replace estrus.
Indeed: http://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2011/12/21/why-do-women-menstruate/

Scott F · 19 June 2014

Katharine said:
TomS said: On the other hand, which would to choose as a mate? The one who would defend you, or the one who gives you expensive things? I suppose that depends on what sort of company you keep.
I would choose the one who's smart or quick enough not to get into fights in the first place. But among mammals there does seem to be a sexually selective advantage to bravado--if you survive long enough to use its capital--and not competing is just about equivalent to perpetual bachelorhood, so. . . . Yeah. Another reason I'm thankful humans evolved menstruation to replace estrus.
IIRC, my understanding is that new studies have shown that the most sexually successful male chimp (or bonobo?) isn't the one with the most bravado, or the most aggressive, but rather the less-than-alpha who is willing to sit and groom the females, the one who runs and hides with the females when the buff males start fighting with each other. :-)

Scott F · 19 June 2014

mattdance18 said: Is someone with ulcerated skin sores and rotted-out teeth someone with whom you'd like to mate, let alone with whom you'd like to raise kids?
Ask my sister that question. She finds the strangest people "attractive".

Scott F · 19 June 2014

John Harshman said:
Scott F said: I know, I know. If something is selectable, it is (almost by definition) "functional" in some reproductive sense. It's just that "looking good" seems like such a "trivial" criteria. "Looking good" doesn't feel very functional.
Sure, but can you see that' just your personal prejudice?
Absolutely. Never said it wasn't.
It has nothing to do with the only operational evolutionary meaning of "functional". You may personally devalue sexual selection, but the opinions of potential mates are just as much parts of the selective environment as climate or predators.
I don't "devalue" sexual selection. What I find distasteful or perhaps wasteful is selecting for apparently trivial features, such as coloration, that don't appear to offer any benefit, other than to attract a mate. But OTOH, it obviously "works", in the grand scheme of things, whether I find it to be trivial or not.
In contrast, there are creatures such as bowerbirds, where the need to be more clever or dexterous in order to attract a mate (rather than simply being prettier), might (conceivably) have an unintended side effect of increasing intelligence in the species. ("Unintended" as in the female bird doesn't have an intention of choosing a "smarter" mate.)
So? Are you once again setting up a value judgment in which features that (hypothetically) result in increasing intelligence are better than features that don't? By the way, you are dancing around one of the hypotheses of sexual selection: that selected features are honest signals of some otherwise adaptive characteristics. In one of its forms, this is known as the handicap principle.
I think you're missing my point. What I was trying to emphasize is that, while the sexual (or any other kind of) selection might be selecting for a particular feature or function, that act of selection may also happen to select for another feature or function that is only tangentially related to the primary function, but which then provides the basis for new features that can then be selected for in the future. The example I was thinking of was that if selection of the bowerbird with the most "creative" bower just happens to result in a bird that is smarter, that intelligence might then be able to manifest itself in other ways, allowing the smarter bird to do other creative things besides just building pretty bowers. Contingency. The new "features" that Natural Selection can act upon don't have to be accidental or "random".
But I would disagree with this: "...if the tail were detrimental to the individual, it would be selected against." As I understand it, that isn't necessarily true. The larger tail could indeed be detrimental to the individual, but the selection pressure to attract a mate could (and most likely does) outweigh the detrimental effects of the large tail. There are lots of species (particularly insects) where the individual is literally sacrificed for the survival of the species.
No individual is sacrificed for the survival of the species; that's magical thinking. Sometimes an individual's reproductive success is maximized by dying (as when some male spiders offer themselves as resources to the female to whom they have just contributed sperm, or when worker ants sacrifice themselves in order to raise more sisters).
Uh, no, it's not "magical thinking". It's "metaphor". And how is "sacrificed for the survival of the species" any different from "an individual's reproductive success is maximized by dying"? In fact, you cite precisely the examples that I was thinking of. Having mated, the individual then "sacrifices" itself in order to ensure the success of it's offspring.

Scott F · 19 June 2014

Scott F said:
It has nothing to do with the only operational evolutionary meaning of "functional". You may personally devalue sexual selection, but the opinions of potential mates are just as much parts of the selective environment as climate or predators.
I don't "devalue" sexual selection. What I find distasteful or perhaps wasteful is selecting for apparently trivial features, such as coloration, that don't appear to offer any benefit, other than to attract a mate. But OTOH, it obviously "works", in the grand scheme of things, whether I find it to be trivial or not.
Actually, if I understand it correctly, Evolution doesn't have a "goal" in mind, and doesn't have to work to "improve" the species. It's certainly conceivable that selection (particularly sexual selection) might end up walking a species down path with perhaps some short term gain, but which eventually results is some fatally flawed adaptation from which it might not "escape", from which it can't evolve out of, thus sending it to extinction. The peculiarly picky diet of the Giant Panda is just one example (though of course it has nothing to do with sexual selection). IANAB, but my (uneducated) view is that (for example) selecting a mate because you happen to like the color of their fur is more likely to have a potentially detrimental future side effect than, say, selecting a mate who can escape predators more efficiently.

Dave Lovell · 20 June 2014

Scott F said: And how is "sacrificed for the survival of the species" any different from "an individual's reproductive success is maximized by dying"? In fact, you cite precisely the examples that I was thinking of. Having mated, the individual then "sacrifices" itself in order to ensure the success of it's offspring.
Those two sentences illustrate perfectly what you are missing. Any sacrifice has to be for the benefit of the individual's offspring or at the very least the benefit of its close relatives. Distant relatives within the species are an individual's competitors in the evolutionary race. You outbreed them or loose. The species survives either way, it just evolves in a different direction.

Ron Okimoto · 20 June 2014

The AIG and guys like Berlinski at the Discovery Institute do not claim "no transitional" fossils. They claim that there are not enough. The AIG used to have it up as one of the bogus creationist arguments that should not be used.

Why can't the rubes buy a clue and get with the program? Why are obviously bogus arguments good enough?

TomS · 20 June 2014

Ron Okimoto said: The AIG and guys like Berlinski at the Discovery Institute do not claim "no transitional" fossils. They claim that there are not enough. The AIG used to have it up as one of the bogus creationist arguments that should not be used. Why can't the rubes buy a clue and get with the program? Why are obviously bogus arguments good enough?
If there were no fossils, there would be enough evidence for evolution. Of course, there is a lot of interesting things that we can only learn from the fossils. And just one transitional fossil, Morganucodon is enough to show that "irreducible complexity" can evolve. I think that most lay people think that the only evidence for evolution is the fossils. And that is because, they think, evolution is something which took place in the distant past.

Frank J · 20 June 2014

Ron Okimoto said: The AIG and guys like Berlinski at the Discovery Institute do not claim "no transitional" fossils. They claim that there are not enough. The AIG used to have it up as one of the bogus creationist arguments that should not be used. Why can't the rubes buy a clue and get with the program? Why are obviously bogus arguments good enough?
The ones you cited are not rubes, but perps. I guess the Biblical perps lean more towards "no transitionals" while the DI ones lean lean more towards "not enough." But that's yet more evidence that what began as an honest movement over 100 years ago has degenerated into a pathetic embarrassment, albeit one which very few people, including very few who accept evolution, have no clue how embarrassing. Like the guy who throws the empty gun at Superman after running out of bullets, they'll say anything to promote unreasonable doubt of evolution - which has been called dead, dying, falsified and unfalsifiable. The obsession with evolution alone, compared to the evasiveness about their own mutually contradictory "theories" out to be a huge red flag to everyone.

Frank J · 20 June 2014

This claim [that there are no transitional fossils] is made without qualification, particularly in presentations to lay or church audiences. As unthinkable as it might seem, creationists really do believe that transitional fossils simply do not exist.

— David MacMillan
Actually it's not "unthinkable" at all, but too often assumed by fellow critics, even though the only way to know for sure is to read minds. To most critics what is unthinkable, or at least unmentionable even as speculation, is that any creationist (1) might be faking that doubt, despite the fact that there is a great incentive to fake it. Nevertheless, it's probably fair to assume that nearly all rank-and-file creationists (and some unknown % of professionals) do honestly think that there are no transitionals, and thus that many "kinds" originated independently. But I must add that you have reinforced my increasing suspicion that the great majority, maybe even all, who do believe that, do so not because they really think that evidence supports it, but because the Bible claims it. So the big question - which I realize may not be answerable - is why do so many creationists risk bearing false witness, as well as embarrassing contradictions like these, when all they need to say is "I believe this because the Bible says so, and if the evidence points to another origins account, it's just another one of God's many tests of my faith"? I knew at least one person who said just that, and, while I would have preferred that he admitted evolution, I at least was reassured that he would not be misrepresenting science to others. To me that's really the only danger of the anti-evolution movement. The "Goddidit" part is needlessly distracting, and may in fact ultimately hurt religion, as it effectively discourages faith in God, by insisting on "catching Him red-handed, hiding in the gaps." (1) I dislike the word "creationist" because it has so many definitions - from professional pseudoscience peddlers to the honest, but misled person-on-the-street, from flat-earth YEC to those who accept evolution but call themselves "creationists" because they think God is the ultimate cause. I'll make a rare exception here, hoping that readers can tell from my context shows which "kind" I mean in each case.

TomS · 20 June 2014

Frank J said: So the big question - which I realize may not be answerable - is why do so many creationists risk bearing false witness, as well as embarrassing contradictions like these, when all they need to say is "I believe this because the Bible says so, and if the evidence points to another origins account, it's just another one of God's many tests of my faith"?
Only I doubt whether there are many people who really consistently and continually follow that rule. What I see is people who have made up their minds about something - that they don't like to think about being related to monkeys, for example - and will scour the Bible for the pretext for saying that the Bible says so, so I don't have any choice. I see the same people carefully explaining away other Bible texts which they don't like. (I try to avoid issues which can be politically/socially contentious, but it takes little effort for anyone to find Bible teachings on such issues. I try to avoid them, because it's already emotionally charged enough when we're talking about something which is so tame and so obvious and so uncontroversial as evolution.)

DS · 20 June 2014

Well if you google "transitional fossils" the Talk Origins site comes up as the fourth hit. The page has twenty five references from the scientific literature about transitional fossils and links to other pages which cite about fifty more for specific groups. And that's only the tip of the ice burg. Anybody who claims that there are no transitional fossils is just plain wrong, no matter why they believe it. They don't want to believe it, that's too bad.

John Harshman · 20 June 2014

Scott F said:
John Harshman said: Sure, but can you see that' just your personal prejudice?
Absolutely. Never said it wasn't.
I'm afraid that if that's what you meant, your words obscured the meaning. Why would you even bring your personal prejudices into a discussion of evolution?
I think you're missing my point. What I was trying to emphasize is that, while the sexual (or any other kind of) selection might be selecting for a particular feature or function, that act of selection may also happen to select for another feature or function that is only tangentially related to the primary function, but which then provides the basis for new features that can then be selected for in the future. The example I was thinking of was that if selection of the bowerbird with the most "creative" bower just happens to result in a bird that is smarter, that intelligence might then be able to manifest itself in other ways, allowing the smarter bird to do other creative things besides just building pretty bowers. Contingency. The new "features" that Natural Selection can act upon don't have to be accidental or "random".
Oh. Certainly that's true; why, it might even have played a role in human evolution. I merely complain about the imputation that this sort of thing is "better" than sexual selection that has no such side effects.
No individual is sacrificed for the survival of the species; that's magical thinking. Sometimes an individual's reproductive success is maximized by dying (as when some male spiders offer themselves as resources to the female to whom they have just contributed sperm, or when worker ants sacrifice themselves in order to raise more sisters).
Uh, no, it's not "magical thinking". It's "metaphor". And how is "sacrificed for the survival of the species" any different from "an individual's reproductive success is maximized by dying"? In fact, you cite precisely the examples that I was thinking of. Having mated, the individual then "sacrifices" itself in order to ensure the success of it's offspring.
No, it's not "metaphor"; it's just wrong. Can you really not see the difference between "for the good of the species" and "to maximize reproductive success"?

CJColucci · 20 June 2014

But if you are man attracted to another man’s mate, which sort of man would you choose to compete with? The man who has marks of having been in many fights, the man who shows his distain about being hurt by wearing body-piercings and tattoos? Or the man who careful in his dress, and gives the impression that he wouldn’t like to stain his neat suit?

I refer you to The Magnificent Seven, in which one of the Mexican peasants recruiting fighters shows Chris (Yul Brenner) his smarts by looking over a bunch of thugs in a cantina and picking the handsome one over the plug-uglies on the theory that the handsome one was skillful enough not to get beat up. For a real-life example, see Muhammad Ali.

TomS · 20 June 2014

DS said: Well if you google "transitional fossils" the Talk Origins site comes up as the fourth hit. The page has twenty five references from the scientific literature about transitional fossils and links to other pages which cite about fifty more for specific groups. And that's only the tip of the ice burg. Anybody who claims that there are no transitional fossils is just plain wrong, no matter why they believe it. They don't want to believe it, that's too bad.
Wikipedia has a "List of transitional fossils", http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_transitional_fossils

mattdance18 · 20 June 2014

And how is "sacrificed for the survival of the species" any different from "an individual's reproductive success is maximized by dying"? ... Having mated, the individual then "sacrifices" itself in order to ensure the success of it's offspring.
Exactly: it's own offspring, not the rest of the species. Maximizing one's own reproductive success is not necessarily good for other current members of the species or for those other members' offspring. (Or even, in some cases for one's own offspring.) Given that conspecifics are direct competitors for resources, it's not hard to fathom. Again, think about individual ants sacrificing themselves for their colonies. Individual ants will sacrifice themselves in war against other colonies of their own species in order to secure their own colony's access to resources that both want. Because it's the individual's own colony, and not the other, that will succeed in passing down the individual's genes. Obviously, it's not to an individual's advantage to destroy the rest of the species, make outbreeding impossible, and go extinct. In a stable scenario, some balance is struck amongst various factors, such that individuals pursuing their own reproductive success will have the effect of perpetuating the species as a whole. But note two things: (1) The survival of the species is the effect, not the cause, of individuals striving to maximize their own reproductive success. (2) The situation does not necessarily have to be stable (or to remain stable, or to become stable), and if it does not, another possible effect of individuals striving to maximize their own reproductive success is extinction. As you say in the next post:
Actually, if I understand it correctly, Evolution doesn’t have a “goal” in mind, and doesn’t have to work to “improve” the species.
That's exactly it. And exactly why maximizing individual reproductive success cannot be equated with benefitting the species. The latter may happen, as an effect of the former under certain conditions, and it frequently does happen. But it doesn't have to.
It’s certainly conceivable that selection (particularly sexual selection) might end up walking a species down path with perhaps some short term gain, but which eventually results is some fatally flawed adaptation from which it might not “escape”, from which it can’t evolve out of, thus sending it to extinction. The peculiarly picky diet of the Giant Panda is just one example (though of course it has nothing to do with sexual selection).
Yeah, I'm afraid I don't see the connection to sexual selection, either. What you're talking about is specialization. And it's true, specialist species are always at greater risk of extinction than generalists. They can take advantage of resources or circumstances that generalists ordinarily can't, whence the advantage of specialization. But their tolerance for other conditions is narrower, and can be too narrow. Why would sexual selection be any more prone to such risks than any other form?
IANAB, but my (uneducated) view is that (for example) selecting a mate because you happen to like the color of their fur is more likely to have a potentially detrimental future side effect than, say, selecting a mate who can escape predators more efficiently.
But why? This actually doesn't jive with the evidence. As I said, the evidence seems to indicate that sexual displays are correlated to other traits related to fitness, and that the only long-term stable strategy is for displays to be honest signals. A peahen doesn't mate with a peacock whose tail feathers are short and mangy, because this indicates that the peacock was incapable, for whatever reason, of maintaining healthy plumage. Maybe he has weak immune resistance to parasites. Maybe he doesn't eat enough or well. Maybe he has a defective preening gland. Maybe he doesn't take the behavioral steps to care for his feathers. Maybe he's a little slow and keeps losing feathers to predators. Whatever. Any or all of these traits would represent negatives that the conscientious and discerning peahen wouldn't want to pass down to her children, in the interest of their own success at surviving and reproducing.
[out of order] I don’t “devalue” sexual selection. What I find distasteful or perhaps wasteful is selecting for apparently trivial features, such as coloration, that don’t appear to offer any benefit, other than to attract a mate.
Yes, if you rule out the benefit(s) a feature does indeed provide, it's pretty clear that the feature doesn't provide any benefit.... I apologize if that seems a rude statement! It wasn't my intent. It's just that your original sentence appears to mean: "What I find distasteful or perhaps wasteful is selecting for apparently trivial features... that don't appear to offer any benefit, OTHER THAN THE BENEFIT THEY OFFER." Attracting a mate is a HUGE component of fitness, certainly not a "trivial" matter. So selecting for it is hardly "wasteful," and I am perplexed why there's anything "distasteful" about it. As noted above, displays are correlated to other components of fitness, so choosing a mate on the basis of a display can be a proxy for choosing those other components. But even if there's nothing more than an assessment of attractiveness going on, if there is any heritable component at all to "finding x attractive" for the chooser, and if there is any heritable component at all to "developing or performing x" for the chosen, the selective dynamics will kick in. And they will make it more likely for some individuals to find mates than for others. Which is hugely important for all those individuals.

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad · 20 June 2014

This discussion about the "good of the species" gets back to the matter of sexual selection. Because what's good for flashy sexually-preferred individual in fact is not good for the species. Flashy, beautiful birds are not the common ones, the dull sparrow or blackbird is more common, almost certainly in part because the peacock and the cardinal are rather easy to spot.

There is some discussion about how group selection might sometimes work, something I wouldn't presume to be able to judge, but even that isn't about the "good of the species." The groups that may, possibly, be selected are not whole species, so far as I know.

Glen Davidson

mattdance18 · 20 June 2014

There is some discussion about how group selection might sometimes work, something I wouldn't presume to be able to judge, but even that isn't about the "good of the species." The groups that may, possibly, be selected are not whole species, so far as I know.
Yeah, I seem to recall group selection in terms of populations and colonies getting a lot more attention lately. But species selection -- Stephen Jay Gould notwithstanding -- is still pretty difficult to fathom, mainly because species don't reproduce themselves and make more species of the same kind. They can change, and they can speciate. But they don't reproduce. I haven't followed it that closely, but I do worry that much of what is called "selection" at the level of groups and above is really a matter of competition between populations and qualifies as "selection" only by way of analogy. But to reiterate, I haven't followed it, let alone studied it, so I don't want to pooh-pooh anything. Except maybe species selection. :-D

eric · 20 June 2014

mattdance18 said: the evidence seems to indicate that sexual displays are correlated to other traits related to fitness, and that the only long-term stable strategy is for displays to be honest signals... ...Attracting a mate is a HUGE component of fitness, certainly not a "trivial" matter. So selecting for it is hardly "wasteful," and I am perplexed why there's anything "distasteful" about it. As noted above, displays are correlated to other components of fitness, so choosing a mate on the basis of a display can be a proxy for choosing those other components.
Even when displays aren't good proxies for (other) fitness (traits), its easy to see how being good at putting on a deceptive display could be a positive fitness trait in all sorts of ways, and thus propagate through the species gene pool over time. Mate "theft" (i.e., from more fit competitors) is only the beginning. If the animal can co-opt that capability to fool others of its own species outside of mating displays, or fool other species, you've got a real natural selection advantage there. This point is obviously more relevant to behavioral sexual traits rather than bodily ones (like a peacock's tail)). But it is easy for me to see how, once some set of individuals figure out how to dishonestly signal, that trait is going to spread through the gene pool (along with it's "arms race cousin," dishonest signal detection). The capability to dishonestly signal could quickly become both a sexual selection AND natural selection advantage.

mattdance18 · 20 June 2014

Even when displays aren't good proxies for (other) fitness (traits), its easy to see how being good at putting on a deceptive display could be a positive fitness trait in all sorts of ways, and thus propagate through the species gene pool over time. Mate "theft" (i.e., from more fit competitors) is only the beginning. If the animal can co-opt that capability to fool others of its own species outside of mating displays, or fool other species, you've got a real natural selection advantage there. This point is obviously more relevant to behavioral sexual traits rather than bodily ones (like a peacock's tail)). But it is easy for me to see how, once some set of individuals figure out how to dishonestly signal, that trait is going to spread through the gene pool (along with it's "arms race cousin," dishonest signal detection). The capability to dishonestly signal could quickly become both a sexual selection AND natural selection advantage.
I get what you're saying, absolutely true. When you say "deceptive display" or "dishonest signal," it seems to mean something like "displaying an effective capacity for deception." Plenty of evidence that this works fine. I immediately thought of male cuttlefish who, instead of growing large and fighting to guard harems, grow small and mimic females to mate with real females right under the big guys' noses. Obviously, at least some female cuttlefish find the little guys' behavior attractive (they don't resist it or reveal it), and the strategy persists, right alongside the macho strategy (which also works). What I meant by "honest signal" was a little different. I meant that the signal sent to the prospective mate must be an honest signal of one's general fitness if such a signaling strategy is to survive over the long term. If an individual is sickly, but lucky enough to survive this long, and further, can display as well as any healthy competitor -- whether the display is bodily or behavioral doesn't seem to make that big a difference -- then that sickl, lucky, deceptive individual's offspring will tend to get selected out of the gene pool (assuming it was just luck that led to the individual's survival). The unfortunate tendency of the chooser to fall for the deception will also disappear along with the offspring in which the So my point was more about the strategic instability of deceiving one's own prospective mates about one's fitness, while your point was more about the capacity for deception itself being a potentially attractive quality in the eyes of one's prospective mates, thereby indicating fitness. It may sound paradoxical, but I think what you're talking about actually qualifies as an honest signal, in terms of my original intention. The deceptive male cuttlefish, for example, are tricking other males, but not the females with whom they are trying to mate. To those females, the little males' success at deceiving their larger competition is quite apparent. Does that make sense?

mattdance18 · 20 June 2014

Mate "theft" (i.e., from more fit competitors)...
Keep in mind also that if an individual is consistently able to steal mates from competitors, then the thief is more fit than the competitors! In the cuttlefish example, those larger males are certainly stronger, but not necessarily fitter. (And in fact, neither the thief nor the macho has an absolute advantage, which is why both persist as stable sub-groups in the population.)

Frank J · 20 June 2014

TomS said:
Frank J said: So the big question - which I realize may not be answerable - is why do so many creationists risk bearing false witness, as well as embarrassing contradictions like these, when all they need to say is "I believe this because the Bible says so, and if the evidence points to another origins account, it's just another one of God's many tests of my faith"?
Only I doubt whether there are many people who really consistently and continually follow that rule. What I see is people who have made up their minds about something - that they don't like to think about being related to monkeys, for example - and will scour the Bible for the pretext for saying that the Bible says so, so I don't have any choice. I see the same people carefully explaining away other Bible texts which they don't like. (I try to avoid issues which can be politically/socially contentious, but it takes little effort for anyone to find Bible teachings on such issues. I try to avoid them, because it's already emotionally charged enough when we're talking about something which is so tame and so obvious and so uncontroversial as evolution.)
I agree that very few follow that rule. Here's where it's crucial to be clear on what "kind" of "creationist" one is referring to. 99+% are what I call "rank and file evolution-deniers," with the rest "anti-evolution activists." Ron O has other terms, which even more clearly note that these are 2 groups, with the smaller one exploiting the larger one. But they are not "fixed kinds." A small % of the former "evolve" into the latter, often passing through a transitional state, such as those who write letters-to-the-editor which parrot a laundry list of feel-good anti-evolution sound bites. When they see how those sound bites get shot down, they either get embarrassed and don't try that again, or, if they have a talent to quote mine, evade, change definitions, become activists. Nearly all of the rank-and-file - and here I mean not just committed Biblical literalists, but also those "leaning" that way or undecided - have simply not thought through how they are justifying their conclusions, be it by evidence that leads them there in which case it would have even if they never heard of Genesis, or just because they like what they see in the Bible. It's always the latter case, of course, and the same applies to those who believe in astrology, fad diets, etc. But few people recognize it. Every day, though, a few realize that they had been fooling themselves, and that if they continued, would be bearing false witness. Depending on how invested they are in Biblical literalism, they will either "follow that rule," or just concede evolution. In both cases, it's rare that they will admit it to many people, much less to the general public.

david.starling.macmillan · 20 June 2014

It's good to keep in mind that the average science-accepting layperson doesn't accept evolution on the basis of evidence and research, but on the basis of authority. Most laypeople who accept evolution do so because they trust the scientific consensus.

It's good to trust the scientific consensus if you know why it should be trusted and how far to take that trust. But simply accepting the authority of "scientists" leaves you open to reasonable-sounding soundbytes from YEC "authorities"...in a way, you're hardly better off than the alternative.

Ron Okimoto · 20 June 2014

Frank J said:
Ron Okimoto said: The AIG and guys like Berlinski at the Discovery Institute do not claim "no transitional" fossils. They claim that there are not enough. The AIG used to have it up as one of the bogus creationist arguments that should not be used. Why can't the rubes buy a clue and get with the program? Why are obviously bogus arguments good enough?
The ones you cited are not rubes, but perps. I guess the Biblical perps lean more towards "no transitionals" while the DI ones lean lean more towards "not enough." But that's yet more evidence that what began as an honest movement over 100 years ago has degenerated into a pathetic embarrassment, albeit one which very few people, including very few who accept evolution, have no clue how embarrassing. Like the guy who throws the empty gun at Superman after running out of bullets, they'll say anything to promote unreasonable doubt of evolution - which has been called dead, dying, falsified and unfalsifiable. The obsession with evolution alone, compared to the evasiveness about their own mutually contradictory "theories" out to be a huge red flag to everyone.
My point was that even the "leading talents" on their own side are telling them that the argument is bogus and to get it right or drop it. Getting it right is pretty meaningless so they are essentially telling the rubes to drop the argument or look stupid. So why don't the rubes listen? It is just stupid to keep relying on bogus arguments and think that you are accomplishing anything. That should be evident to even the most boneheaded of the lot.

TomS · 20 June 2014

Frank J said: Nearly all of the rank-and-file - and here I mean not just committed Biblical literalists, but also those "leaning" that way or undecided - have simply not thought through how they are justifying their conclusions, be it by evidence that leads them there in which case it would have even if they never heard of Genesis, or just because they like what they see in the Bible. It's always the latter case, of course, and the same applies to those who believe in astrology, fad diets, etc. But few people recognize it. Every day, though, a few realize that they had been fooling themselves, and that if they continued, would be bearing false witness. Depending on how invested they are in Biblical literalism, they will either "follow that rule," or just concede evolution. In both cases, it's rare that they will admit it to many people, much less to the general public.
I don't follow what you are saying here. I thought that I was following you until you said, "It's always the latter case ..." It seems to be that you raised the question of people who come their opinion regardless of what Genesis says, only to say that there are no such people. And then you seem to say the same for belief in astrology, etc. BTW, may I express my dislike of the phrase "bearing false witness" for "not telling the truth". "Bearing false witness against your neighbor" is what the Commandment is about, not about "not telling the truth about the natural world".

ashleyhr · 20 June 2014

"Because there is no “unbiblical” science...".
Watch out, you might get quote-mined!

Frank J · 21 June 2014

david.starling.macmillan said: It's good to keep in mind that the average science-accepting layperson doesn't accept evolution on the basis of evidence and research, but on the basis of authority. Most laypeople who accept evolution do so because they trust the scientific consensus. It's good to trust the scientific consensus if you know why it should be trusted and how far to take that trust. But simply accepting the authority of "scientists" leaves you open to reasonable-sounding soundbytes from YEC "authorities"...in a way, you're hardly better off than the alternative.
Yes, and I often note the sad reality that most people who claim to accept evolution, do so for the wrong reason. It may be blind trust of science, though I think more commonly because they think it supports their atheism and/or liberal ideology. When evolution-deniers complain about that, they are 100% justified. But when they imply (wittingly or not) or state outright that all "Darwinists" are like that, it becomes a half-truth that is not only false, but harmful to everyone. For 30 years I too accepted evolution only because it "made sense." Not until the late 90s did I bother to truly appreciate the multiple independent lines of evidence that supported the fact and the theory, and how hopeless and mutually-contradictory the claimed alternate "theories" were. Nowadays, when I encounter a committed denier, I don't try to convince them of evolution, because I know that no evidence can convince them. But I tell them that they could easily convince me of their "theory." All they need to do is stop obsessing over evolution and its long-refuted "weaknesses," and just show me how the evidence converges on their own "theory." Of course not one dared to do that, not even for a basic "what happened when" origins account, let alone a for theory to explain it. While many critics obsess over the committed deniers that I "write off," I'm constantly reminded that a much larger group, in fact the majority of Adult Americans, is either misled or confused. The subset that leans toward denial is capable of accepting evolution, while the subset that leans toward acceptance is capable of accepting it right reason. But only with patient correcting of misconceptions. In contrast, many who lean towards accepting it are only a clever sound bite away from denial.

Frank J · 21 June 2014

TomS said:
Frank J said: Nearly all of the rank-and-file - and here I mean not just committed Biblical literalists, but also those "leaning" that way or undecided - have simply not thought through how they are justifying their conclusions, be it by evidence that leads them there in which case it would have even if they never heard of Genesis, or just because they like what they see in the Bible. It's always the latter case, of course, and the same applies to those who believe in astrology, fad diets, etc. But few people recognize it. Every day, though, a few realize that they had been fooling themselves, and that if they continued, would be bearing false witness. Depending on how invested they are in Biblical literalism, they will either "follow that rule," or just concede evolution. In both cases, it's rare that they will admit it to many people, much less to the general public.
I don't follow what you are saying here. I thought that I was following you until you said, "It's always the latter case ..." It seems to be that you raised the question of people who come their opinion regardless of what Genesis says, only to say that there are no such people. And then you seem to say the same for belief in astrology, etc. BTW, may I express my dislike of the phrase "bearing false witness" for "not telling the truth". "Bearing false witness against your neighbor" is what the Commandment is about, not about "not telling the truth about the natural world".
Yes, my usual attempt to overlap 2 or more points requires clarification. In the case of Genesis, it is the book, and any "revelation" that the reader finds from it, not the evidence, that fast-forwards them to a conclusion. Then they sometimes go back to pick evidence that seems to support it, usually not realizing that Morton's Demon is operating. Astrology, fad diets, UFOs, and other pseudosciences, has its own "authoritative sources of information" that also fast-forwards people to their conclusion. As for "bear false witness," I completely admit that I only use it because it resonates with religious people, and they are the great majority of the ones I try to reach. Since you are the resident Bible expert, I'll take your word that my use of it may not have the intended effect. But since you mention "not telling the truth about the natural world" I should add that what evolution-deniers do, wittingly or not, is not only that, but also spreading falsehoods about what others (their "neighbors") have concluded about the natural world - e.g. the quote-mining, defining terms to suit the argument, etc. I can't prove it any more that someone can prove that a particular "creationist" "believes this" or "doesn't understand that," but I do suspect that many anti-evolution activists have broken at least one Commandment.

TomS · 21 June 2014

Once again, I think you make good points.

This sort of off-topic, but when you point out that a lot of people accept evolution, but don't have good reasons for it - I think of the same situation with heliocentrism. I think that a lot of people confuse geocentrism with a flat Earth. And think that pictures taken from outer space show the Earth in motion. And this means that today's geocentrists can easily shoot down most of the arguments that they are presented with.

TomS · 21 June 2014

Please don't call me a Bible expert. Seriously, I don't want to give the impression that I am, and certainly don't want to give the impression that I'm claiming that.

As far as "bearing false witness", of course it is true that there is too much of the bearing false witness against the person done by the evolution deniers. Anyway, it is just one of my things that I don't like what I feel is an over-use of the expression.

DS · 21 June 2014

Frank J said:
david.starling.macmillan said: It's good to keep in mind that the average science-accepting layperson doesn't accept evolution on the basis of evidence and research, but on the basis of authority. Most laypeople who accept evolution do so because they trust the scientific consensus. It's good to trust the scientific consensus if you know why it should be trusted and how far to take that trust. But simply accepting the authority of "scientists" leaves you open to reasonable-sounding soundbytes from YEC "authorities"...in a way, you're hardly better off than the alternative.
Yes, and I often note the sad reality that most people who claim to accept evolution, do so for the wrong reason. It may be blind trust of science, though I think more commonly because they think it supports their atheism and/or liberal ideology. When evolution-deniers complain about that, they are 100% justified. But when they imply (wittingly or not) or state outright that all "Darwinists" are like that, it becomes a half-truth that is not only false, but harmful to everyone. For 30 years I too accepted evolution only because it "made sense." Not until the late 90s did I bother to truly appreciate the multiple independent lines of evidence that supported the fact and the theory, and how hopeless and mutually-contradictory the claimed alternate "theories" were. Nowadays, when I encounter a committed denier, I don't try to convince them of evolution, because I know that no evidence can convince them. But I tell them that they could easily convince me of their "theory." All they need to do is stop obsessing over evolution and its long-refuted "weaknesses," and just show me how the evidence converges on their own "theory." Of course not one dared to do that, not even for a basic "what happened when" origins account, let alone a for theory to explain it. While many critics obsess over the committed deniers that I "write off," I'm constantly reminded that a much larger group, in fact the majority of Adult Americans, is either misled or confused. The subset that leans toward denial is capable of accepting evolution, while the subset that leans toward acceptance is capable of accepting it right reason. But only with patient correcting of misconceptions. In contrast, many who lean towards accepting it are only a clever sound bite away from denial.
You are both correct. The only good reason to believe anything is based on the evidence. In the conclusion of the cosmos series, Neil gives five rules for the pursuit of knowledge. The first one is, never accept the word of any authority, find out for yourself. He doesn't distinguish between scientific and religious authorities. However, no scientific authority should ask you to accept their word for anything, they should always present the evidence for their claims. It won't do any good to replace one priesthood with another. Now if it isn't important enough to you, or you just don't care enough to be bothered to do all of the hard work required, then the next best thing is to tentatively accept the consensus view among the experts, always keeping in mind that they could be wrong. It's not a very firm foundation on which to base your entire world view, but it sure beats taking the word of someone with a vested interest in fooling you in order to get your money.

Mike Elzinga · 21 June 2014

If one hasn’t already been exposed to the “worldview” of the people who founded the Institute for Creation “Research,” it is easy to go over to the website of ICR and type in “Henry Morris” into their site search box.

One comes up with a whole list of demonizing caricatures of the secular world, in the words of Henry Morris.

Just a perusal of some of these gives one a pretty good sampling of the attitudes of Henry Morris who, with Duane Gish, founded the ICR; as well as the attitudes of his sons who now run the ICR.

AiG and the Discovery Institute - both political and expedient spin-offs of ICR – are made up of similar personalities.

Back when Henry Morris and Duane Gish were publishing “educational” materials designed to get “scientific” creationism into the public curriculum, they often published two versions of each book; one for the public school that had little reference to sectarian dogma and another, for use in churches, that was filled with demonizing caricatures of scientists and other “unbelievers.”

Those latter versions tell us what they really think, and belie their public statements about their purported “legitimate” criticisms of science.

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad · 21 June 2014

Honestly, I don't know how anyone should claim that people should believe something only because of the evidence. How do you as a layperson even get to the evidence except by accepting, at least contingently, the authority of the experts?

Have you seriously studied and understood quantum mechanics before accepting that it's the best model so far for much of the physics phenomena? You accept what scientists say about ecology only upon the evidence?

Not everyone has to understand every science well in order to accept the likelihood that the scientists likely have it right. It may indeed be well to understand why scientists mostly get it right, such as review and replication of results, but nearly everyone is going to be stuck accepting at least some science on the "self-correcting" nature of science, rather than really understanding the basis for every claim. Or, one is going to be agnostic about some fairly well established facts about the world--and I don't think that's really a legitimate option.

Of course there's some chance of being wrong by following what scientists say. But we're not all going to be experts in any science, really, let alone experts in all of the sciences, so it's best to acknowledge that the experts likely are right where you can't know this by fully understanding the evidence.

Glen Davidson

Frank J · 21 June 2014

Please don’t call me a Bible expert. Seriously, I don’t want to give the impression that I am, and certainly don’t want to give the impression that I’m claiming that.

— TomS
Sorry, I'm only going by the many Bible passages you cite, and how almost no one, including evolution-deniers, corrects you. For all I know you could be making it all up. But if you were, I would have expected many people, especially evolution-deniers, to cry foul. So the simplest explanation is that you know what you're talking about when it comes to the Bible. I'm in fact doing what DS calls, I'm "the next best thing" to finding my own evidence (that you're interpreting the Bible more accurately than most). I'm reminded of Rick Perry when he was running in a presidential primary, and how he weaseled out of a simple question on the age of the earth. All he needed to say was "Scientists can answer that better than I can." Sure, the scientists could be wrong too, but as Glen noted, their method is self-correcting. Or as I would put it, they can't afford to be wrong too long, as other scientists are itching to scoop them on repeatable results. My guess is that Perry knew, and probably accepted, that the earth is 4.5 billion years old. But he appointed Don McLeroy, whom everyone calls a YEC, but with no more evidence (or mind-reading ability) than I have of Perry being an OEC, or maybe even a closet "Darwinist." McLeroy even used the phrase "big tent" to discourage YEC-OEC debates, so he at least is aware that honest evaluation of evidence would undermine his agenda to get taxpayers to pay to promote unreasonable doubt of evolution to impressionable students. So it's a safe bet that McLeroy and Perry discussed the issue enough so that Perry knew to evade the question without admitting that scientists know better.

TomS · 21 June 2014

Frank J said:

Please don’t call me a Bible expert. Seriously, I don’t want to give the impression that I am, and certainly don’t want to give the impression that I’m claiming that.

— TomS
Sorry, I'm only going by the many Bible passages you cite, and how almost no one, including evolution-deniers, corrects you. For all I know you could be making it all up. But if you were, I would have expected many people, especially evolution-deniers, to cry foul. So the simplest explanation is that you know what you're talking about when it comes to the Bible.
It surprised me to learn how little the Bible-quoters know about the Bible, and how easy it is to do it. But there is a lot more to learn about the Bible, and I know just enough to know how little I know.

Just Bob · 21 June 2014

TomS said: It surprised me to learn how little the Bible-quoters know about the Bible, and how easy it is to do it. But there is a lot more to learn about the Bible, and I know just enough to know how little I know.
Try getting a Bible-believin' Christian to defend Proverbs 31:6-7.

6 Give strong drink unto him that is ready to perish, and wine unto those that be of heavy hearts. 7 Let him drink, and forget his poverty, and remember his misery no more.

Ask one if he regularly obeys that straightforward command of the Word of God. Or if he ever has. Or if he even knew that he was enjoined to give free booze to the down-and-out. Try getting one to even answer. If you can force one into it, like in a face to face conversation, then he'll magically wish 'strong drink' into being the Word of God or something. Yeah, that's literal, all right.

callahanpb · 21 June 2014

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad said: Honestly, I don't know how anyone should claim that people should believe something only because of the evidence. How do you as a layperson even get to the evidence except by accepting, at least contingently, the authority of the experts? Glen Davidson
I'm not sure we're coming at this from the same perspective, but I think that naive rationalism really doesn't give much insight into the basis of most human belief, and isn't a reasonable target for any but a small subset of beliefs. (Though it is required for scientists making assertions in their area of expertise.) Of course, I'd prefer to believe something with a rational justification, but I think that the cost/benefit of believing some assertion is largely independent of having a sound basis for it (only "largely" because you can do much more with knowledge that you understand than you can with rote knowledge). Ultimately, what counts is the result of acting on decisions based on beliefs. In most decisions of any complexity, there are factors without a clear justification. This is why people often establish markets (or talk about the "marketplace of ideas"). They allow agents to make wagers on the truth of assertions that they cannot feasibly prove in the amount of time needed to apply them. You could say that such a wager is not "belief" and someone could go to pains to separate "belief" from "working assumption" on this basis. Many people may find the distinction important. I don't really. I also don't think that the success of a strategy based on an assertion depends on whether you call it a belief or working assumption. I would extend this beyond uncertainty to clear cases of superstition. If I think that I will do better on a job interview if I wear my lucky socks, the cost to acting on that belief is pretty low. I was going to wear some socks anyway. The cost could be high if I found myself rushing into a burning building to save my socks, but the likelihood of that happening very low, so the expected cost of this kind of superstition is probably low overall. The benefit may be non-existent (except for the psychological effect) but I could live my entire life with this belief and be productive and happy. Now, I guess you could counter that the real cost of such a belief is sort of a camel's nose under the tent. Where do I stop believing nonsense and start requiring evidence? I don't accept that argument for two reasons. One is that nobody I'm aware of applies critical thinking consistency. Human life is filled with emotions, drives, and post hoc excuses. You can wring your hands over it or embrace it for what it is. The other is that the best rational thinkers are actually capable of establishing a walled-off domain of sound beliefs--such as those they would be happy to put their name on in a scientific paper. Creationism actually is harmful when it means pretending that it has some scientific basis and trying to get it into the school curriculum. If this strategy became successful, it would at least harm the next generation of potential life scientists. The fact that it would misinform non-scientists is probably significant too, but I'm not even certain of that (like my comments on common misunderstanding of gravity). The existence of some YECs somewhere doesn't bother me any more than the existence of some bigfoot believers.

Dave Luckett · 21 June 2014

callahanpb said: Ultimately, what counts is the result of acting on decisions based on beliefs.
Some other guy said that you would know them by their fruits.

Scott F · 21 June 2014

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad said: Honestly, I don't know how anyone should claim that people should believe something only because of the evidence. How do you as a layperson even get to the evidence except by accepting, at least contingently, the authority of the experts? Have you seriously studied and understood quantum mechanics before accepting that it's the best model so far for much of the physics phenomena? You accept what scientists say about ecology only upon the evidence? Not everyone has to understand every science well in order to accept the likelihood that the scientists likely have it right. It may indeed be well to understand why scientists mostly get it right, such as review and replication of results, but nearly everyone is going to be stuck accepting at least some science on the "self-correcting" nature of science, rather than really understanding the basis for every claim. Or, one is going to be agnostic about some fairly well established facts about the world--and I don't think that's really a legitimate option. Of course there's some chance of being wrong by following what scientists say. But we're not all going to be experts in any science, really, let alone experts in all of the sciences, so it's best to acknowledge that the experts likely are right where you can't know this by fully understanding the evidence. Glen Davidson
Exactly. Even "scientists" can't be expert in all fields (at least not any more). We all have to believe in "authority" in some sense at some point in our lives. What matters is the process that is used. The "process" of Science is evidence based and peer reviewed. There is no constant, consistent answer. None is expected. The results are not predetermined, and will vary over time as new evidence becomes available. Science grows and changes. Science asks and seeks answers to "how" questions: "How does it rain?" Further, if you want to spend the time and effort, literally anyone can achieve at least a modicum of success in science, or at least can learn enough to understand the evidence for themselves first hand. (I'm not denigrating the work and effort that scientists put into their endeavors. I'm just observing that "science" is agnostic, open to anyone who is willing to put in the work and effort). The "authority" that we non-specialists defer to (and we're all non-specialists in some fields) is the "authority" of the process, not the authority of the individual. Does "Science" have the "right" answers? I don't know, but we can check and find out if it does. One thing we can be sure of, though, is that the answer will change in the future. It always does. And when it does, we will know why it changed: because new evidence was discovered. And when the answer changes, the consensus of Science will again converge on that new answer. In contrast, what is the process of Creationism? Ultimately, the "process" is divine revelation. The "authority" is either the Bible, or the preacher, but ultimately it is simply divine revelation. There is one, consistent "right" answer that is expected, and that "right" answer must never waver or vary. (Never mind that it actually does change over time. We are supposed to studiously ignore that part.) Creationism does not grow or change. Creationism answers "ultimate" "why" questions: "Why does it rain?" Creationism is completely stagnant, because all answers, all knowledge is preordained. No amount of study, no amount of work or effort will allow any individual to come to any better knowledge, because knowledge and understanding is not required. What is required is to have complete faith in and to accept the "authority" of the institution, ultimately the authority of the individual to whom divine revelation has been gifted. Does "Creationism" have the "right" answers? I don't know, and there is absolutely no way to find out. One thing we can be sure of, though, is that the answer will change in the future. It always does. And when it does, we will never know why. And when the answer changes, religion will schism yet again, never converging on any answer.

Frank J · 22 June 2014

In contrast, what is the process of Creationism? Ultimately, the “process” is divine revelation.

— Scott F
If it were up to me I would make your 1st 3 paragraphs, along with examples to demonstrate, mandatory for every student by 8th grade the latest. I often say that I want all students to learn creationism, while, ironically, creationists (anti-evolution activists) do not. And those activists (ID peddlers) who insist that they don't want "creationism" taught but only the "strengths and weaknesses of evolution" really don't want that either. What both "kinds" of activist only want is to promote is unreasonable doubt of evolution. On that note:

In contrast, what is the process of Creationism? Ultimately, the “process” is divine revelation.

— Scott F
While I don't disagree, I think that misses an even more important point. Over the last 150+ years that "divine revelation" has collapsed into a royal mess of hopeless and embarrassing contradictions. Right down to the most basic questions of the age of the earth, for which disagreements are commonly in excess of 5 orders of magnitude, and the hopeless confusion regarding "kinds". All of which means that, despite decades of attempts to select and distort evidence to support their "revelations" there is no hope of agreement on which basic conclusions to concede to mainstream science, and which to pretend that they are "mistaken" or worse (conducting a conspiracy). Creationism may have started as honest belief - indeed those who wrote Genesis made what were reasonable hypotheses of origin, given the limited evidence available at the time - but has degenerated into the worst form of pseudoscience. Creationism fails even without considering its biggest flaw - the bait-and-switch between ultimate causes and testable proximate causes. The heliocentric YEC that was "the" creationism in the 60s and 70s, and which still has many vocal advocates (plus a lot of media attention), at least made testable hypotheses about its own origins accounts. But even before it became known as ID, one "lineage" of creationism knew that those hypotheses were unsupportable, and that even with grotesque distortion of evidence (and quotes) would not convince a majority of even those committed to denying evolution. Worse, many adults and students who would otherwise accept YEC would be alerted to its fatal weaknesses and contradiction with other creationist positions. So the "don't ask don't tell what happened when, just promote unreasonable doubt of evolution and let the audience infer whatever it likes as the alternative" has become the preferred strategy.

harold · 22 June 2014

We all have to believe in “authority” in some sense at some point in our lives.
While the words are sometimes used interchangeably, I make a distinction between "authority" and "expertise". Both are potentially valid, just each in a different way. Authority exists when a person or institution is accepted as being the legitimate final decision maker, when decisions require going beyond any available evidence. For example, although a judge must make a decision that is reasonably constrained by the evidence, a judge has the legitimate power to adjust sentences and so on. All lawyers are experts, but judges have legal authority. You don't have to do what your defense attorney tells you to do, but the judge has the power to make you do what the judge tells you to do. Religious leaders are often authorities to those who voluntarily accept that religion. Priests, bishops, and the pope are authorities to Catholics. Monks and nuns, on the other hand, aren't necessarily authorities, even though they may be considered experts, in a sense. An expert is someone who has devoted themselves to the study of a field and met certain milestones. Scientists, applied science experts like physicians or engineers, and skilled tradespeople are predominantly experts. The field does not have to be scientific, and the expert actually, in theory, does not have to "believe" in their own field. An anthropologist or historian might become an expert in astrology, for example, and might actually know a great deal more about astrology than many self-proclaimed astrologers. What an expert can tell you is what the consensus of experts in the field actually is, how that consensus was arrived at, what valid disputes are open between experts in the field, and so on. Expertise is transparent. Anyone with sufficient academic ability and energy can become expert in fields I am expert in. Authority is in a sense, by definition, non-transparent. It exists where some group of people has decided that some decision that goes beyond merer obvious reaction to clear evidence must be made, and some subset is granted the ability, often within constraints, to make that decision. Experts often function as quasi-authorities. If the basement is flooded, most people call a plumber, and they generally don't challenge the plumber's expertise. However, the plumber is not a real authority. Arguably, in the United States, the real authority, for now, is the population, with SCOTUS as the de facto authority at other times (decisions made by SCOTUS are more or less final, but the "people" can get around SCOTUS by amending the constitution, or by electing politicians who will appoint SCOTUS justices to overturn decisions made by prior SCOTUS justices).

Just Bob · 22 June 2014

Scott F said: In contrast, what is the process of Creationism? Ultimately, the "process" is divine revelation.
I must beg to amend the above. They claim divine revelation. They're wrong. Many are honest but misled sheep. Some are charlatans. Some are mentally ill. Some are sociopathic liars. But none actually receive or have access to divine revelation. At the very least it should be given sarcastic quotes: "divine revelation".

TomS · 22 June 2014

Just Bob said: At the very least it should be given sarcastic quotes: "divine revelation".
"Divine" revelation.

Frank J · 22 June 2014

Arguably, in the United States, the real authority, for now, is the population…

— ”harold”
Given your good point about authority vs expertise, I’ll temporarily stray far from my own area of expertise: The US process, when it is allowed to work (I’m thinking of Ben Franklin’s “a republic, if you can keep it” quote), in fact puts the expertise that you mentioned above blind authority. What we too often take for granted, was a fiendishly clever process that is not unlike the scientific method. And dare I add, not unlike natural selection itself, in that change (in this case in laws) must be both possible and not easy. Immutable laws are authoritarianism. While laws changeable at the slightest whim, is anarchy. Like nature itself, and the scientific method, what works is – if I may use a Stuart Kauffman phrase – poised on the edge between order and chaos. As expected, those with radical agendas insist that the Constitution (or the Bible, when they quote mine the Founding Fathers) is an immutable authority. Or they demand easy change of all laws, typically to make those regarding safety and environment ever-stricter, and everything else more lenient. Anti-evolution activists in fact do both. While pursuing their own extreme authoritarian agenda, they, particularly ID promoters, have ironically fooled millions into thinking that their “Darwinist” critics are the ones tampering with the Constitution. In fact we are the ones yielding to expertise, demanding that what is taught in science class is only that which has earned the right to be taught. On that criterion alone, without any regard to church-state issues, every teaching strategy demanded by anti-evolution activists, fails miserably. Unfortunately, most people, including most who have no problem with evolution, are unaware of that.

callahanpb · 22 June 2014

harold said: While the words are sometimes used interchangeably, I make a distinction between "authority" and "expertise".
I agree that "authority" is a loaded term for the reasons you state, but note that the one definition is "an individual cited or appealed to as an expert" (online Merriam Webster 1c), which is clearly the one we're using here (you did state the the words are sometimes used interchangeably). I think the reason the word comes up in these discussions is the expression "argument from authority". Argument from authority is a fallacy if you think it is rational justification of your belief, but that doesn't mean that there is anything wrong with paying more attention to claims from people you have some reason to think are experts. (Given infinite time, I might test every assertion given to me, but I don't have infinite time, and I can choose the order in which I give each claim its hearing.) Even if it is possible to understand a lot of things from first principles, it's a given that nobody understands everything. The most rigorously argued academic paper will still cite other results. Sometimes it is just to acknowledge previous work, but often it is to avoid repeating an existing justification. You can read the paper and accept the main result without following up on every citation in uses. In fact, it is usually almost impossible to follow up on everything. In this context, you could have a valid set of beliefs along the lines of "I believe A contingent on the correctness of unchecked citations B, C, and D." But I doubt many researchers are this careful about their beliefs within their own specialities. Most people, including researchers outside their speciality, pay even less attention to the reasons. None of this is saying that I don't want more people to understand science and be able to explain why they believe certain things. One things that would help is at least to have "stubs" of belief like I mentioned before, where you haven't gone through all the details, but could find an appropriate citation and follow up on it if you had to. I think even this is way too much to hope for, but it is more plausible than imagining you have a complete rational justification for every belief.

harold · 22 June 2014

Frank J said:

Arguably, in the United States, the real authority, for now, is the population…

— ”harold”
Given your good point about authority vs expertise, I’ll temporarily stray far from my own area of expertise: The US process, when it is allowed to work (I’m thinking of Ben Franklin’s “a republic, if you can keep it” quote), in fact puts the expertise that you mentioned above blind authority. What we too often take for granted, was a fiendishly clever process that is not unlike the scientific method. And dare I add, not unlike natural selection itself, in that change (in this case in laws) must be both possible and not easy. Immutable laws are authoritarianism. While laws changeable at the slightest whim, is anarchy. Like nature itself, and the scientific method, what works is – if I may use a Stuart Kauffman phrase – poised on the edge between order and chaos. As expected, those with radical agendas insist that the Constitution (or the Bible, when they quote mine the Founding Fathers) is an immutable authority. Or they demand easy change of all laws, typically to make those regarding safety and environment ever-stricter, and everything else more lenient. Anti-evolution activists in fact do both. While pursuing their own extreme authoritarian agenda, they, particularly ID promoters, have ironically fooled millions into thinking that their “Darwinist” critics are the ones tampering with the Constitution. In fact we are the ones yielding to expertise, demanding that what is taught in science class is only that which has earned the right to be taught. On that criterion alone, without any regard to church-state issues, every teaching strategy demanded by anti-evolution activists, fails miserably. Unfortunately, most people, including most who have no problem with evolution, are unaware of that.
I completely agree with this. "Or they demand easy change of all laws, typically to make those regarding safety and environment ever-stricter, and everything else more lenient." Well, I do support some strengthening of environmental protections. And I do support making certain laws more lenient, or eliminating them, for example laws against marijuana use (this may happen some day, even outside of Colorado) or laws that penalize consenting adults for exchanging sex for money (but I don't expect to see these laws repealed in my lifetime). Not for any personal reason, I just think that legal prohibition doesn't serve society best in these areas. And I'm against the death penalty. However, beyond that, I don't want to make laws against fraud, theft, violence, vandalism, reckless driving, etc, any more lenient. In fact, I'd like to see certain types of these activities dealt with more rigorously, or at least, rigorously in a more uniform way. So I don't think I qualify as a radical, to say the least.

harold · 22 June 2014

callahanpb said:
harold said: While the words are sometimes used interchangeably, I make a distinction between "authority" and "expertise".
I agree that "authority" is a loaded term for the reasons you state, but note that the one definition is "an individual cited or appealed to as an expert" (online Merriam Webster 1c), which is clearly the one we're using here (you did state the the words are sometimes used interchangeably). I think the reason the word comes up in these discussions is the expression "argument from authority". Argument from authority is a fallacy if you think it is rational justification of your belief, but that doesn't mean that there is anything wrong with paying more attention to claims from people you have some reason to think are experts. (Given infinite time, I might test every assertion given to me, but I don't have infinite time, and I can choose the order in which I give each claim its hearing.) Even if it is possible to understand a lot of things from first principles, it's a given that nobody understands everything. The most rigorously argued academic paper will still cite other results. Sometimes it is just to acknowledge previous work, but often it is to avoid repeating an existing justification. You can read the paper and accept the main result without following up on every citation in uses. In fact, it is usually almost impossible to follow up on everything. In this context, you could have a valid set of beliefs along the lines of "I believe A contingent on the correctness of unchecked citations B, C, and D." But I doubt many researchers are this careful about their beliefs within their own specialities. Most people, including researchers outside their speciality, pay even less attention to the reasons. None of this is saying that I don't want more people to understand science and be able to explain why they believe certain things. One things that would help is at least to have "stubs" of belief like I mentioned before, where you haven't gone through all the details, but could find an appropriate citation and follow up on it if you had to. I think even this is way too much to hope for, but it is more plausible than imagining you have a complete rational justification for every belief.
"I agree that “authority” is a loaded term for the reasons you state, but note that the one definition is “an individual cited or appealed to as an expert” (online Merriam Webster 1c), which is clearly the one we’re using here (you did state the the words are sometimes used interchangeably). I think the reason the word comes up in these discussions is the expression “argument from authority”. Argument from authority is a fallacy if you think it is rational justification of your belief, but that doesn’t mean that there is anything wrong with paying more attention to claims from people you have some reason to think are experts. (Given infinite time, I might test every assertion given to me, but I don’t have infinite time, and I can choose the order in which I give each claim its hearing.)" Agreed. An interesting type of dishonesty is deliberate distortion or exaggeration of logical statements that are more or less true. The most common example is misuse of the phrase "correlation does not imply causation". It's certainly true that two things can be correlated without having a causal relationship. They may each have a causal relationship with a hidden third variable; for example, number of people drowning per day in a geographical area is said to be correlated with ice cream sales per day in the same area. People don't drown in ice cream, or because of ice cream, but higher daily temperature drives both increased ice cream sales and increased participation in water sports (at least in temperate areas that experience significant seasonal temperature variation, and have a warm summer). Nevertheless, correlation actually does imply that there may be a causal relationship, and the vast majority of people who use this line are using it to deny a very likely causal relationship. They use it as if it meant "if there is correlation there can't be causation". In fact the line was most famously used by cigarette company advocates, denying the relationship between cigarette smoking and disease. Another similar devise is to label all reference to expertise as "argument from authority". Typically creationists will both do this, and also simultaneously commit the actual error of really arguing from authority. They'll link to some creationist post that literally is just an arbitrary authoritarian declaration, without even fully understanding it, and won't even be able to state the case made by the authorities they site in their own words. Yet if shown a discussion based on reproducible evidence and valid logical inference, they'll label that as "argument from authority". Another similar ruse is to use the term "skeptic" or "skepticism" to refer to unreasonable refusal to consider any evidence. Webster's is, of course, a fairly valid but non-binding authority. Note that, like a judge, it combines expertise and authority. The editors of Webster's are strongly constrained by the evidence, but at the end of the day, it is also their role to made somewhat arbitrary decisions about whether certain words have certain meanings. However, like a Catholic bishop, Webster's has authority only over those who voluntarily choose to be under its authority. Numerous entries in Webster's are disputed by prominent linguists, and it likely includes some few entries that the majority of English speakers would not agree with. Since there is no "Academie Anglaise", the only actual final authority over the English language is the community of English speakers. Despite the undeniable overlap in the use of "authority" and "expert" in common parlance, when discussing science versus pseudo-science, I like to make a strong distinction between expertise, versus mere arbitrary authority.

callahanpb · 22 June 2014

I said: Argument from authority is a fallacy if ...
The wikipedia page makes some points about how authoritative claims are misused, and one thing that is definitely a fallacy is to cite an authority to dismiss the validity of evidence (Reminiscent of the line in Duck Soup: "Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?") This is sadly very common, though creationists like to spin it around and pretend that "Darwinists" impose their authority and dismiss evidence. In reality, there is so much obvious evidence of common descent that you only have to open your eyes to see it, whereas there is no evidence for something as absurd as a global flood. The fact that YECs are taken any more seriously than bigfoot chasers never fails to astonish me.

Frank J · 22 June 2014

The fact that YECs are taken any more seriously than bigfoot chasers never fails to astonish me.

— callahanpb
Actually there are not many more people, and possibly less, who believe YEC in its entirety than believe that Bigfoot exists. Michael Medved, a DI OEC who might even accept common descent, believes that Bigfoot exists. In fact, comparing several polls, more Americans think the sun revolves around the earth than think the earth is less than 10,000 years old. Nevertheless, a majority - the 40-45% that think that humans originated in their present form, per that idiotic Gallup question, plus another 10-30% who don't - do "take YEC seriously," because they are simply unaware of all that YEC claims and/or implies. And YEC activists, even before the hyper-evasive ID strategy, learned to say as little as possible of the details of their own origin account. I'm sure that many theistic evolutionists teetering on the edge heard some sound bites from the Ham-Nye debate and finally found that excuse to doubt evolution.

https://me.yahoo.com/a/JxVN0eQFqtmgoY7wC1cZM44ET_iAanxHQmLgYgX_Zhn8#57cad · 22 June 2014

In a meritocracy, authority comes from expertise.

Pure meritocracy is probably as impossible as any other utopia, but science is about as close to it that we'll get, I suspect.

Glen Davidson

callahanpb · 22 June 2014

Frank J said: Michael Medved, a DI OEC who might even accept common descent, believes that Bigfoot exists.
I'm not convinced that Michael Medved exists. I'll accept tentative evidence for him as a low-rent replacement in the declining years of Sneak Previews, the PBS movie review show started by the inestimable Gene Siskel and Roger Ebert. (Because I think I saw him a few times.) But that was nearly 30 years ago, and maybe my memory is failing. Some time in the 1990s, I heard Medved being cited increasingly as a culture pundit. Now, it seems he's become an expert on evolution and creationism. Given the low probability of any ordinary human having something worthwhile to say on these three unrelated topics, I conclude that he is wholly fictitious. Maybe it's like the way "directed by Alan Smithee" is used by the actual director to disown a film. Bad ideas are attributed to "Michael Medved" so the originator of them can avoid being discredited.

Frank J · 22 June 2014

In reality, there is so much obvious evidence of common descent that you only have to open your eyes to see it, whereas there is no evidence for something as absurd as a global flood.

— ”callahanpb”
With that, a YEC or Biblical OEC would just fall back on the Bible’s authority, and if they recognized the double-standard, hope that you don’t catch it. But a skilled ID peddler would just claim that ID takes no position on common descent, and merely claim that “RM + NS” alone cannot account for the diversity of life. I mentioned in an earlier comment that, when I first heard of evolution almost 50 years ago I accepted it just because it “made sense.” Then, and for most of the following 30 years I was thinking more Lamarckian than Darwinian, but many of my misconceptions were corrected when I read that evolution is a “fact and a theory.” Anti-evolution activists, especially of the ID variety, count on their audience confusing the fact of “~4 billion years of common descent with modification” with the theory that explains it, and only admit the difference when called on it. Disregarding the theory, and the “when” questions for the moment, common descent deserves much more emphasis because it is a simpler explanation than the formal alternative, which requires that many “kinds” arise independently, let alone organisms containing trillions of cells, and made mostly of water, arising on land from “dust.” It also deserves more emphasis because it’s the main deal-breaker among rank-and-file evolution deniers, not the age of the earth, let alone such issues as “irreducible complexity,” which if anything argues more of the similarity of humans with other “kinds” than anything that might make us “special.” In fact the main champion of IC, Michael Behe, one of the most cited opponents of evolution, flat-out admitted ~4 billion years of common descent. Just observing that life comes from life, and that offspring start out small, change radically as they grow, and never exactly resemble their parents was enough to convince me from the start that common descent was the simpler explanation. In fact some ancient Greeks observed that too, and probably also the “nested hierarchy” that truly makes the formal alternative the proverbial extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary evidence - and has none. Hindsight is 20/20, but one can appreciate that, before there was a theory to explain it, many educated people during the early centuries of modern science, and maybe even before, must have independently concluded what the ancient Greeks did, but would not dare speak it publicly, for fear of offending the church (or worse). Ironically the “historical accident” of the fact and the theory gaining widespread acceptance virtually simultaneously helps anti-evolution activists get away with confusing the issues. So does the concurrent (mainly 19th century) finding, independent of evolution and biology, that earth and life were orders of magnitude older than previously assumed. A related point that I often make when creationists confuse “ultimate causes” with “proximate causes” is that, if the situation were reversed, and the evidence really did confirm that many “kinds” arose independently, any theory we might have to explain it would be every bit as “naturalistic,” meaning not requiring supernatural intervention, as evolution is. Though if that were the case, they'd just pick a different literal interpretation and insist that that's the correct one. Conceivably, the evidence could support YEC, and all creationists would insist that OEC was the correct one!

harold · 22 June 2014

Nevertheless, a majority - the 40-45% that think that humans originated in their present form, per that idiotic Gallup question, plus another 10-30% who don’t - do “take YEC seriously,” because they are simply unaware of all that YEC claims and/or implies.
For what it's worth, I'm fairly sure that number would markedly reduce if the question were phrased in a way that didn't seem to require a "confrontation with religion". For example, if the question was "Humans have ancient, human-like ancestors, who lived hundreds of thousands of years ago", I'm willing to bet that many more people would choose the correct answer. Popular culture overwhelming endorses the existence of hominids and Neanderthals. My hypothesis is that an original question was written by a pollster who was deliberately trying to push a pro-creationist answer. The phrasing of the Gallup poll is clearly biased and any pollster should see why. It presents what seems like a religious case and then forces to reader to contradict it directly if they want to choose the scientific answer. Once a question on the topic was written, it was subsequently lazily recycled over the decades.

harold · 22 June 2014

harold said:
Nevertheless, a majority - the 40-45% that think that humans originated in their present form, per that idiotic Gallup question, plus another 10-30% who don’t - do “take YEC seriously,” because they are simply unaware of all that YEC claims and/or implies.
For what it's worth, I'm fairly sure that number would markedly reduce if the question were phrased in a way that didn't seem to require a "confrontation with religion". For example, if the question was "Humans have ancient, human-like ancestors, who lived hundreds of thousands of years ago", I'm willing to bet that many more people would choose the correct answer. Popular culture overwhelming endorses the existence of hominids and Neanderthals. My hypothesis is that an original question was written by a pollster who was deliberately trying to push a pro-creationist answer. The phrasing of the Gallup poll is clearly biased and any pollster should see why. It presents what seems like a religious case and then forces to reader to contradict it directly if they want to choose the scientific answer. Once a question on the topic was written, it was subsequently lazily recycled over the decades.
However, I don't disagree that obvious nonsense and bigotry are given excessive respect when they are clothed in a fig leaf of religious justification.

KlausH · 22 June 2014

Frank J said:

Arguably, in the United States, the real authority, for now, is the population…

— ”harold”
Given your good point about authority vs expertise, I’ll temporarily stray far from my own area of expertise: The US process, when it is allowed to work (I’m thinking of Ben Franklin’s “a republic, if you can keep it” quote), in fact puts the expertise that you mentioned above blind authority. What we too often take for granted, was a fiendishly clever process that is not unlike the scientific method. And dare I add, not unlike natural selection itself, in that change (in this case in laws) must be both possible and not easy. Immutable laws are authoritarianism. While laws changeable at the slightest whim, is anarchy. Like nature itself, and the scientific method, what works is – if I may use a Stuart Kauffman phrase – poised on the edge between order and chaos. As expected, those with radical agendas insist that the Constitution (or the Bible, when they quote mine the Founding Fathers) is an immutable authority. Or they demand easy change of all laws, typically to make those regarding safety and environment ever-stricter, and everything else more lenient. Anti-evolution activists in fact do both. While pursuing their own extreme authoritarian agenda, they, particularly ID promoters, have ironically fooled millions into thinking that their “Darwinist” critics are the ones tampering with the Constitution. In fact we are the ones yielding to expertise, demanding that what is taught in science class is only that which has earned the right to be taught. On that criterion alone, without any regard to church-state issues, every teaching strategy demanded by anti-evolution activists, fails miserably. Unfortunately, most people, including most who have no problem with evolution, are unaware of that.
We desperately need the scientific method in government. Every proposed law should have a clear statement of the legislation, the problem it is supposed to address, an analysis of its own legality under existing laws and the constitution, an analysis of impact on population, a logical explanation of how it is intended to work, and criteria by which its effectiveness can be judged. All laws should be reviewed after they have been implemented for a reasonable amount of time. Laws that are ineffective, by the stated criteria, or have serious unintended consequences, or were passed based on faulty or fraudulant data, should be discarded.

Just Bob · 22 June 2014

KlausH said: We desperately need the scientific method in government. Every proposed law should have a clear statement of the legislation, the problem it is supposed to address, an analysis of its own legality under existing laws and the constitution, an analysis of impact on population, a logical explanation of how it is intended to work, and criteria by which its effectiveness can be judged. All laws should be reviewed after they have been implemented for a reasonable amount of time. Laws that are ineffective, by the stated criteria, or have serious unintended consequences, or were passed based on faulty or fraudulant data, should be discarded.
Sounds perfect! But try that in a real-world democracy, where legislators have to get elected and stay elected, often by appealing to the prejudices, popular 'issues', fears, and even ignorance of the electorate. What legislator is going to vote to 'discard' a law that, regardless of its ineffectuality, is strongly favored by his constituents?

callahanpb · 22 June 2014

KlausH said: Every proposed law should have a clear statement of the legislation, the problem it is supposed to address, an analysis of its own legality under existing laws and the constitution, an analysis of impact on population, a logical explanation of how it is intended to work, and criteria by which its effectiveness can be judged.
I think this gets into a "Who watches the watchman?" problem. Who decides if the statement is clear, addresses the right problem, etc.? Politics is an adversarial process, which makes it very different from science. It is less about finding the best solution to policy, and more about ensuring that all groups get a fair hearing. Different segments of a society not only have different opinions on how to address problems, they actually differ in values, so what looks like a problem to one constituency looks like a benefit to another constituency. A politician who tacks an unrelated rider on a bill to fund a project in their own community is derided as playing "porkbarrel politics." But the fact is that they were elected to play politics just like a baseball player is hired to play baseball. They have every right to get away with what they can within the bounds of legality, and they have an obligation to benefit the people who voted them in. Their opponents are supposed to provide the checks on this. In fact, stretching this to its limit, I don't have a huge problem with someone elected to a schoolboard trying to get creationism in the schools if that's what the people who voted for them want. It's the job of opponents to make their case and get their own candidate elected. The courts are another recourse, because there are constitutional limits on proposals like this. This process is unlike scientific thinking and peer review, but I don't really see a substitute in politics. The goals are just different. In science, one can imagine a consensus understanding that (almost) everyone will accept given enough evidence. In politics, there are different interests and each wants to get their due. No "impartial" decision is going to look fair in a case like this, because it still has to come from a human or group of humans, who will not be considered impartial. The mathematician and philosopher Leibniz one envisioned a future in which disputes would be resolved with the invitation "Gentlemen let us calculate." after which all the tools of logic would be brought to bear on one finding the one right solution. It is certainly an appealing view to the rationally minded, but it seems very unlikely to work in the face of human psychology.

Rolf · 23 June 2014

The subject may be condensed into a simple rule:

Every individual is equipped with a complex set of rules and strategies for survival.

Those rules are the essence of 4 billion years of evolution. Field tested and found conducive to species survival. Survival only has meaning in the context of species survival. Life knows only one rule: survive both as an individual and a species The rest of the rules constitute a tangled web subservient to that rule. Individual behaviour is determined by the rules in the context of strategies developed under the impact of experience.

We are indeed a "Stranger in Paradise", a "freak of nature" creating our own sets of rules for everything in the world, far beyond what's in our genes. Add liberal dashes of religion and ideology to the soup and you have the World of mankind anno 2014 CE.

Rolf · 23 June 2014

The subject may be condensed into a simple rule:

Every individual is equipped with a complex set of rules and strategies for survival.

Those rules are the essence of 4 billion years of evolution. Field tested and found conducive to species survival. Survival only has meaning in the context of species survival. Life knows only one rule: survive both as an individual and a species. The rest of the rules constitute a tangled web subservient to that rule. Individual behaviour is determined by the rules in the context of strategies developed under the impact of experience.

We are indeed a "Stranger in Paradise", a "freak of nature" creating our own sets of rules for everything in the world, far beyond what's in our genes. Add liberal dashes of religion and ideology to the soup and you have the World of mankind anno 2014 CE.

bigdakine · 23 June 2014

KlausH said:
Frank J said:

Arguably, in the United States, the real authority, for now, is the population…

— ”harold”
Given your good point about authority vs expertise, I’ll temporarily stray far from my own area of expertise: The US process, when it is allowed to work (I’m thinking of Ben Franklin’s “a republic, if you can keep it” quote), in fact puts the expertise that you mentioned above blind authority. What we too often take for granted, was a fiendishly clever process that is not unlike the scientific method. And dare I add, not unlike natural selection itself, in that change (in this case in laws) must be both possible and not easy. Immutable laws are authoritarianism. While laws changeable at the slightest whim, is anarchy. Like nature itself, and the scientific method, what works is – if I may use a Stuart Kauffman phrase – poised on the edge between order and chaos. As expected, those with radical agendas insist that the Constitution (or the Bible, when they quote mine the Founding Fathers) is an immutable authority. Or they demand easy change of all laws, typically to make those regarding safety and environment ever-stricter, and everything else more lenient. Anti-evolution activists in fact do both. While pursuing their own extreme authoritarian agenda, they, particularly ID promoters, have ironically fooled millions into thinking that their “Darwinist” critics are the ones tampering with the Constitution. In fact we are the ones yielding to expertise, demanding that what is taught in science class is only that which has earned the right to be taught. On that criterion alone, without any regard to church-state issues, every teaching strategy demanded by anti-evolution activists, fails miserably. Unfortunately, most people, including most who have no problem with evolution, are unaware of that.
We desperately need the scientific method in government. Every proposed law should have a clear statement of the legislation, the problem it is supposed to address, an analysis of its own legality under existing laws and the constitution, an analysis of impact on population, a logical explanation of how it is intended to work, and criteria by which its effectiveness can be judged. All laws should be reviewed after they have been implemented for a reasonable amount of time. Laws that are ineffective, by the stated criteria, or have serious unintended consequences, or were passed based on faulty or fraudulant data, should be discarded.
Get the population the politicians represent to embrace the scientific method and maybe that idea would have a fighting chance. Until then, no chance that will ever happen.

Just Bob · 23 June 2014

callahanpb said: ...I don't have a huge problem with someone elected to a schoolboard trying to get creationism in the schools if that's what the people who voted for them want.
I do (have a problem with them). The creationist board member (let's call him a 'mcleroy') KNOWS that what he's pushing is illegal, and that the likely result is major and expensive problems for the district. If the mcleroy doesn't know that, then he's guilty of gross incompetence. If he knows that, but intentionally pursues unconstitutionally teaching religion on the taxpayers' dime, thus harming the school district he's elected to serve, he's guilty of gross malfeasance.

callahanpb · 23 June 2014

Just Bob said: I do (have a problem with them). The creationist board member (let's call him a 'mcleroy') KNOWS that what he's pushing is illegal, and that the likely result is major and expensive problems for the district. If the mcleroy doesn't know that, then he's guilty of gross incompetence. If he knows that, but intentionally pursues unconstitutionally teaching religion on the taxpayers' dime, thus harming the school district he's elected to serve, he's guilty of gross malfeasance.
If there's proven malfeasance, it should be possible to remove them from office (and I think that's happened, though I'm not up on these things). What I don't have a problem with is advocacy. Within legal limits, politicians work for the people who voted them in, not for some ideal of how things should be. Actually, the part that bothers me more is when they are working for interests that have no connection whatsoever to the voters. That's a major failure of American politics.

ksplawn · 23 June 2014

callahanpb said:
Just Bob said: I do (have a problem with them). The creationist board member (let's call him a 'mcleroy') KNOWS that what he's pushing is illegal, and that the likely result is major and expensive problems for the district. If the mcleroy doesn't know that, then he's guilty of gross incompetence. If he knows that, but intentionally pursues unconstitutionally teaching religion on the taxpayers' dime, thus harming the school district he's elected to serve, he's guilty of gross malfeasance.
If there's proven malfeasance, it should be possible to remove them from office (and I think that's happened, though I'm not up on these things). What I don't have a problem with is advocacy. Within legal limits, politicians work for the people who voted them in, not for some ideal of how things should be.
Politicians are not elected to try and pass unconstitutional policies that infringe on the voters' rights, even if some voters want that. Quite the opposite. Using public schools to teach Creationism as even a viable "alternative" to evolution is a violation of the 1st amendment, period. It is institutionalized religious bigotry and antithetical to the mission of public education. I have a serious problem with advocacy of violating the guaranteed rights of not only the students, but also the voting public. Even advocacy creates a hostile and unfair learning environment for the captive audience of students, lending the school government's support for religious intolerance and favoritism. This is really a civil rights issue; how much of a problem would you have if a vocally racist school administrator was voted in by popular assent and started advocating for racially bigoted school policies? Because that's the condition that existed for much of US history, and practices like segregation were only torn down over the objections of many local populations where racism was popular and accepted.

eric · 23 June 2014

mattdance18 said: What I meant by "honest signal" was a little different. I meant that the signal sent to the prospective mate must be an honest signal of one's general fitness if such a signaling strategy is to survive over the long term.
There is no requirement in evolution that a fitness-signaling strategy survive over the long term, thus we should not be particularly surprised when we see deceptive ones (i.e. signals that represent a fitness greater or at least different from what the organism actually has). Several things can happen: the species could just die out; or the environment could change altering the value of the original fitness trait; or the species could evolve such that the originally "advertised" fitness trait is not as important.
So my point was more about the strategic instability of deceiving one's own prospective mates about one's fitness,
Well in extreme cases yes, you're right. Some peacocks are likely to die having produced less offspring than they would have with a less heavy/bulky tail. If you're a toad that does a great mating croak, but you're far more vulnerable to some toad parasite or disease than other toads, then you may die having produced less offspring than you would have with a less attractive croak but stronger immune system. However, there is a lot of room for somwhat deceptive signaling because of the "slop" inherent in evolution. Not every weakly toad is going to encounter the parasite that could kill him. Today the fox may decide to go after the slow-because-young peacock rather than the slow-because-tail peacock. I would argue then that deceptive signaling is not always unstable. It can be in some cases, but it isn't automatically so. In fact the whole notion of sexual selection kinda supports the notion of stable "useless" traits. If sexual selection was all about health and fitness to evade predators/resist disease/etc... then there would be no such things as peacock's tails. The fact that such things exist is prima facie evidence that organisms can "waste" some amount of calories on signals that aren't directly related to surviving predators, disease, hunger, etc... So, misrepresenting ones' fitness is not really much different than growing a big tail or what have you; in both casese, the organism is spending some calories that could've been spent on natural-selection-fitness on making itself attractive to a mate instead.
your point was more about the capacity for deception itself being a potentially attractive quality in the eyes of one's prospective mates,
Not quite. My point was that the capacity for deception of mates might sometimes be co-opted into a more general deceptive capacity, and that this could be a "more classic natural selection" type of advantage rather than just being a sexual selection advantage.

John Harshman · 23 June 2014

callahanpb said: What I don't have a problem with is advocacy. Within legal limits...
And there's your problem. There's a contradiction between the first sentence and the start of the second. There is no "within legal limits" for teaching creationism in public schools. I don't suppose it would violate the first amendment to advocate violating the first amendment, but it's at the very least unethical to propose something you know is illegal.

John Harshman · 23 June 2014

eric said: If sexual selection was all about health and fitness to evade predators/resist disease/etc... then there would be no such things as peacock's tails. The fact that such things exist is prima facie evidence that organisms can "waste" some amount of calories on signals that aren't directly related to surviving predators, disease, hunger, etc... So, misrepresenting ones' fitness is not really much different than growing a big tail or what have you; in both casese, the organism is spending some calories that could've been spent on natural-selection-fitness on making itself attractive to a mate instead.
I'll agree that deception can be evolutionarily stable enough at least to show up in the wild. But you still have a few basic misunderstandings about sexual selection. The most important is your notion that there is some difference between sexual-selection-fitness and natural-selection-fitness. It's all just fitness; it's all just natural selection. Calories spent being attractive are calories well spent if they increase expected lifetime reproductive output. Calories spend surviving predators are calories well spent if they increase expected lifetime reproductive output. No difference. No waste. As for big tails -- the handicap principle -- it's been shown that a handicap is only advantageous if it has less cost for an organism of high quality (in the trait being advertised) than one of low quality. That is if the chance of a long-tailed peacock with (for example) strong wings being eaten is no better than that of a short-tailed peacock with weak wings, then there's no point in the fancy tail. So instead of "I'm alive in spite of this, so I must be good at something else", the message is "I can afford this without sacrificing survival chances, so I must be really good". Now, I know of cases in which features are deceptive. There are scorpionflies that give their prospective mates gifts of insects wrapped in silk -- nice protein for the eggs. But there are other scorpionflies that give their mates gifts of nothing wrapped in silk, and they seem to work as well in attracting said mates. This may be unstable -- there would certainly be an advantage to females capable of spotting the deception -- but not so unstable that it doesn't last long enough for us to observe it.

eric · 23 June 2014

ksplawn said: Politicians are not elected to try and pass unconstitutional policies that infringe on the voters' rights, even if some voters want that.
Not every citizen has the same understanding or view of what the first amendment means. And in fact the general mainstream view of what it means has evolved over time, so your argument doesn't really make sense to me. Of course politicians are elected to try and pass policies that change people's rights. If nothing needed to be changed, we wouldn't need to write new laws every year. An honest politician is likely to try and enaact change within what they see as both the letter and spirit of the constitutional law, but they are certainly going to be changing peoples' rights.
Using public schools to teach Creationism as even a viable "alternative" to evolution is a violation of the 1st amendment, period.
The problem is that not everyone agrees with you (and me). The way our system hammers out such disagreements is, often, through the political process: we elect leaders to enact changes we want made to our system; those leaders enact change; if someone complains about the change, the courts review the changes to see if they are constitutional; if they pass judicial review, the change sticks. What you seem to want to do is say this process should not even occur in the case of teaching creationism. I'd be careful about that; consider how many very bad laws and policies would never have been changed, if politicians in past eras had been forbidden from advocating for changes in law and changes in how the constitution was interpreted.
It is institutionalized religious bigotry and antithetical to the mission of public education. I have a serious problem with advocacy of violating the guaranteed rights of not only the students, but also the voting public. Even advocacy creates a hostile and unfair learning environment for the captive audience of students, lending the school government's support for religious intolerance and favoritism.
Allowing people to advocate for changes to the law that may be offensive to others is IMO critical to our form of government. It prevents authoritarianism. And its fair. To see all that, let's you and I ksplawn play a variant on the children's "you cut the cake and I select the piece" game. You define how much power the government has to prevent advocacy of changes to law. Tell me the powers you grant government to prevent such speech. Then, as the second player, I'm going to decide what advocacy the government is going to use your power on. And just so I'm not accused of playing gotcha games, I'll say point blank that I'm going to use whatever censor power you give on civil rights ideas. On expanding gay rights, women's rights, and so on. I think you will pretty quickly decide that the best "cut of cake" is the one that does not allow government to censor advocacy at all. Because the sort of shut-down of advocacy you are advocating (heh) would be a really, really bad power to give to a government that disagrees with you about what is good policy and what is bad policy.

John Harshman · 23 June 2014

eric said: Allowing people to advocate for changes to the law that may be offensive to others is IMO critical to our form of government.
But this isn't advocating for changes to the law. It's pretending that you don't need changes to the law because what you're proposing is perfectly legal, when in fact it isn't. Big difference.

Just Bob · 23 June 2014

John Harshman said:
eric said: Allowing people to advocate for changes to the law that may be offensive to others is IMO critical to our form of government.
But this isn't advocating for changes to the law. It's pretending that you don't need changes to the law because what you're proposing is perfectly legal, when in fact it isn't. Big difference.
Big difference between advocating breaking the law -- and actually breaking it by instituting creationism in public schools -- and advocating changing the law.

ksplawn · 23 June 2014

What John said. This isn't about legislators proposing legislation in open session, this is about the people running a public school system and the policies they support. They are powerless to change the law, that is not part of their mandate or authority. They must act within the bounds of the law. Beyond that problem, advocacy for infringing the Freedom of Religion of their students and the voters who disagree with bigoted policies is in itself harmful and sabotages the mission of public schools.

callahanpb · 23 June 2014

John Harshman said: And there's your problem. There's a contradiction between the first sentence and the start of the second. There is no "within legal limits" for teaching creationism in public schools.
Actually, I never meant to suggest that "within legal limits" is a non-empty set. In fact, it looks pretty empty based on any precedents I'm aware of. Beyond that, I'm not sure if malfeasance is really the issue or just the fact that the politician in question would be making promises they cannot possibly keep. My original point was mostly that I don't believe "We desperately need the scientific method in government." Science is a process aimed at determining facts, and succeeds when there is widespread agreement on the facts. Politics is a completely different process with a different goal. The outcome of political process is not fact, but decisions of how to spend public resources, regulate private activity, and so forth. The decisions should be informed by fact, but that's not the driving factor. It's usually impossible to attain consensus, so it turns out more to be an ongoing competition of interests. The best outcome is one of fairness of representation, not optimality by any other criteria. And American politics is very sick, but in my opinion, the reason isn't because it's political, but because it does not have anything resembling fair representation. One thing I notice about creationists is that they confuse advocacy with science and fail to wrap their heads around the fact that scientists are actually trying to understand stuff, not push their ideology. But by the same token, advocacy is still a legitimate human activity. If you hire a lawyer, you want a champion for your side, not a person who will determine a neutral outcome based on science.

FL · 23 June 2014

Question for Just Bob:

Is the Louisiana Science Education Act breaking the law?

(Sincere question.)

FL

harold · 23 June 2014

Using public schools to teach Creationism as even a viable “alternative” to evolution is a violation of the 1st amendment, period.
Technically, the constitution means whatever the supreme court says it means, until a law, amendment, or different supreme court changes things. Having said that, I agree that a prohibition of government favoritism for one religious sect over others is one of the most basic elements of the US constitutional system. There is a reason why creationist schemes are so unsuccessful. Every school board that has ever attempted to teach ID/creationism, or even, since WWII, censor the teaching of evolution, has been located in a mainly rural, conservative part of the nation. Possibly Ohio is a partial exception. Texas, Louisiana, Kansas, and rural Pennsylvania are not. Even in those areas such efforts have not only been stopped by courts but also, where possible, rejected by voters at the next opportunity. When Americans hear the word "religion" they think of a generic, kindly, Hollywood version of "nice" religion. Images of clerics as wise and kindly still dominate popular culture. Americans first think of the chaplain from M*A*S*H. How could a few ecumenical lessons on the Golden Rule hurt anyone, they may wonder? But creationists are not ecumenical and don't care about the Golden Rule. When faced with unpleasant fanatics who wish to impose their scientifically nonsensical dogma on the majority at taxpayer expense, even the most conservative, rural Americans react negatively. Or at least always have to date.

harold · 23 June 2014

FL said: Question for Just Bob: Is the Louisiana Science Education Act breaking the law? (Sincere question.) FL
Yes, it's unconstitutional, and millions of dollars will be wasted discovering that if anyone ever tries to use it to teach creationism. Louisiana seems to have learned its lesson from Edwards, though. No-one seems to be "taking advantage" of that law to teach creationism.

callahanpb · 23 June 2014

ksplawn said: Politicians are not elected to try and pass unconstitutional policies that infringe on the voters’ rights, even if some voters want that. Quite the opposite.
I'm sure that I expressed myself badly, and probably came off as saying something I don't mean (not to dismiss the likelihood that we disagree about something). I do feel that a healthy governmental process should be sufficient to prevent the enactment of unconstitutional laws in most cases. I'm not sure what anyone is "elected" to do. There are laws governing the requirements of what it means to be elected, but they are based on procedure, not intent. If I ran for political office on a promise to make pi equal to 3, it would clearly be an impossible promise to keep. It would also be a deception, given that I know that pi is a constant not equal to 3, and cannot be changed by fiat. For all that, it seems like the laws would still allow me to try (but I'll leave that one to lawyers). But my morally neutral example (above) is a little bit of a cop out. If a racist runs for office on the promise of instituting unconstitutional racist law, I agree that they are unethical and should lose, and if they win should be removed from office by any legally available means. I just have to be optimistic enough to say that with a healthy political process in place, they will fail, and be penalized in their future career prospects for even trying. However, there is no arbiter who will apply the "scientific method" to rule out the occurrence ahead of time. By the way, I'm certainly not happy about people trying to get on a school board for any reason other than providing students with a sound education (and I think there are objective grounds for this that would certainly rule out trying to foist nonsense like creationism on the schools). But within the political process, my views have limited weight. I would prefer to see a healthy political process.

DS · 23 June 2014

Question for Floyd: Watched Cosmos yet? How about Your Inner Fish?

Thought not.

ksplawn · 23 June 2014

Let's be clear here that when I'm speaking in terms of "I have a problem with this!" I'm not saying "there oughta be a law against talking about it!" or "force that guy to be fired before the term's up, procedure be damned!"

I'm saying is a monumentally ugly, stupid, and blatantly anti-rights stance that should, in any reasonable society, disqualify someone simply because nobody supports the platform. But even where there is popular support, it's a problem because it's an ugly, stupid, and blatantly anti-rights stance. And sometimes even advocacy causes harm by creating a hostile environment, or sowing confusion instead of understanding. The normal method of uninstalling such demagogues, a recall election, probably won't work where the popular support is high enough. So they are allowed to continue harming the community (even though many in the community approve of it). I "have a problem" with all of this, the same way I would "have a problem" with a racist firebrand talking up a storm about how schools should be allowed to segregate the students.

Jimpithecus · 23 June 2014

Just Bob said:
KlausH said: We desperately need the scientific method in government. Every proposed law should have a clear statement of the legislation, the problem it is supposed to address, an analysis of its own legality under existing laws and the constitution, an analysis of impact on population, a logical explanation of how it is intended to work, and criteria by which its effectiveness can be judged. All laws should be reviewed after they have been implemented for a reasonable amount of time. Laws that are ineffective, by the stated criteria, or have serious unintended consequences, or were passed based on faulty or fraudulant data, should be discarded.
Sounds perfect! But try that in a real-world democracy, where legislators have to get elected and stay elected, often by appealing to the prejudices, popular 'issues', fears, and even ignorance of the electorate. What legislator is going to vote to 'discard' a law that, regardless of its ineffectuality, is strongly favored by his constituents?
This is only part of the problem. The other part is the persistent myth that anyone can serve on a science education committee. This leads to people like Paul Broun, of Georgia, representing the House Committee for Science and Technology. From an article in the local paper:
"God's word is true," Broun said, according to a video posted on the church's website. "I've come to understand that. All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell. And it's lies to try to keep me and all the folks who are taught that from understanding that they need a savior."
Some kind of test should be a requirement of sorts for people running for these committees or local school boards. Creationism thrives where people like Broun have political power.

callahanpb · 23 June 2014

ksplawn said: Let's be clear here that when I'm speaking in terms of "I have a problem with this!" I'm not saying "there oughta be a law against talking about it!" or "force that guy to be fired before the term's up, procedure be damned!"
In the interest of further clarity, when I said "I don’t have a huge problem with someone ..." I meant something like "I don't have a huge problem with a political process that allows someone to try." In all honesty, I do have a problem with people doing something damaging to the public good (as I see it) whether they are elected or even if they're acting constitutionally. But the system that allows them to make the attempt is more valuable than whatever improvements I think I could make by circumventing it (modulo really extreme cases, but that's where the process itself breaks down, and we've got bigger problems that we can hash out here). My main point--and I'm sticking to it :)--is that politics is a contest, and science is not supposed to be. (There are prizes and other acclaim, so it's a contest for priority of results, but shouldn't be a contest for which results hold.) It took me a long time in my own life to come around to the view that total consensus is unattainable and interest-driven processes are fundamental to human existence. When I see comments that really do sort of echo Leibniz's "Let us calculate" I sort of feel like "Here we go again. What does it take to get a nice young scientist to appreciate how democracy is actually supposed to work?"

davidjensen · 23 June 2014

callahanpb said: One thing I notice about creationists is that they confuse advocacy with science and fail to wrap their heads around the fact that scientists are actually trying to understand stuff, not push their ideology.
Because creationists view creation "science" as Christian apologetics, and are emotionally attached to it, they assume that the reverse is true: that "evolutionists" are just trying to disprove God, because they are attached to their atheism (Christian evolutionists have been deceived, if they are still truly Christians.) I was talking to a creationist who thought evolution and billions of years were specifically thought up to be anti-Christian. So much so that he thought evolution was only taught in primarily Christian countries (because why teach an anti-Christian philosophy if there are no Christians?)

Just Bob · 23 June 2014

harold said:
FL said: Question for Just Bob: Is the Louisiana Science Education Act breaking the law? (Sincere question.) FL
Yes, it's unconstitutional, and millions of dollars will be wasted discovering that if anyone ever tries to use it to teach creationism. Louisiana seems to have learned its lesson from Edwards, though. No-one seems to be "taking advantage" of that law to teach creationism.
A law can't break a law. How would one punish it? A person acting under a law can certainly be breaking a different law, and be punished. Such a case calls the respective laws into judicial question, usually with a resolution rendering one of them unconstitutional or otherwise invalid. IANAL, but my surmise is that the mere existence of the LSEA is not illegal, but a person doing what it purports to allow him to do would find himself charged with breaking laws that DO stand up to judicial scrutiny.

Scott F · 23 June 2014

ksplawn said: Politicians are not elected to try and pass unconstitutional policies that infringe on the voters' rights, even if some voters want that. Quite the opposite.
Unfortunately, that statement is clearly false. Politicians are often elected on the promise to pass unconstitutional laws that infringe on people's rights. It happens all the time. Just read the Republican Party Platforms in any state of the union. They clearly promise to restrict and infringe the rights of "them", in order to appease the sensibilities of "us".

Bobsie · 23 June 2014

Just Bob said: A law can't break a law. How would one punish it? ... IANAL, but my surmise is that the mere existence of the LSEA is not illegal, but a person doing what it purports to allow him to do would find himself charged with breaking laws that DO stand up to judicial scrutiny.
IANAL either and this may be parsing the issue a bit too much but IMO a law most certainly can be illegal. The writers of a given law most certainly can overstep legal bounds with passage. These are the kinds of laws that our State and Federal Supreme Courts over turn every year. It's not an automatic review based at the point of passage but when an aggrieved party petitions the court to review and make judgement.

Just Bob · 23 June 2014

Bobsie said:
Just Bob said: A law can't break a law. How would one punish it? ... IANAL, but my surmise is that the mere existence of the LSEA is not illegal, but a person doing what it purports to allow him to do would find himself charged with breaking laws that DO stand up to judicial scrutiny.
IANAL either and this may be parsing the issue a bit too much but IMO a law most certainly can be illegal. The writers of a given law most certainly can overstep legal bounds with passage. These are the kinds of laws that our State and Federal Supreme Courts over turn every year. It's not an automatic review based at the point of passage but when an aggrieved party petitions the court to review and make judgement.
I think we need a lawyer's technical opinion. Can a law itself be technically illegal? Unconstitutional, certainly, and therefore unenforceable, but is that the same thing as illegal? If a law could be illegal, wouldn't its passage be an illegal act by the legislators who voted for it and the governor who signed it? Have they therefore opened themselves to punishment merely for putting such a law on the books? AFAIK, there are no criminal penalties for passing an unconstitutional law. But if one were to try to enforce it, he could incur criminal prosecution. Case in point: In a small town near where I grew up (NOT in the South) there was a city ordinance that no Negro person could remain within the city limits overnight. AFAIK, that law could still be on the books. Now, if a town constable, say, tried to enforce it by forcing a black person to leave his hotel room and 'git outta town' before dark, that officer would likely face criminal and/or civil penalties for violating the civil rights of the person. I don't believe that he could mount a successful defense claiming that he was only enforcing the law. For that matter, I believe there are articles and books published regularly full of ridiculous or archaic or unenforceable laws that are still on the books of communities around the country.

Helena Constantine · 23 June 2014

Jimpithecus said:
Just Bob said:
KlausH said: We desperately need the scientific method in government. Every proposed law should have a clear statement of the legislation, the problem it is supposed to address, an analysis of its own legality under existing laws and the constitution, an analysis of impact on population, a logical explanation of how it is intended to work, and criteria by which its effectiveness can be judged. All laws should be reviewed after they have been implemented for a reasonable amount of time. Laws that are ineffective, by the stated criteria, or have serious unintended consequences, or were passed based on faulty or fraudulant data, should be discarded.
Sounds perfect! But try that in a real-world democracy, where legislators have to get elected and stay elected, often by appealing to the prejudices, popular 'issues', fears, and even ignorance of the electorate. What legislator is going to vote to 'discard' a law that, regardless of its ineffectuality, is strongly favored by his constituents?
This is only part of the problem. The other part is the persistent myth that anyone can serve on a science education committee. This leads to people like Paul Broun, of Georgia, representing the House Committee for Science and Technology. From an article in the local paper:
"God's word is true," Broun said, according to a video posted on the church's website. "I've come to understand that. All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell. And it's lies to try to keep me and all the folks who are taught that from understanding that they need a savior."
Some kind of test should be a requirement of sorts for people running for these committees or local school boards. Creationism thrives where people like Broun have political power.
Oh how I loved it when I got that quotation in print in a high school text book!

Just Bob · 23 June 2014

Helena Constantine said: Oh how I loved it when I got that quotation in print in a high school text book!
I bet it's not exactly the kind of book Broun would like to see it in.

bigdakine · 23 June 2014

Jimpithecus said:
Just Bob said:
KlausH said: We desperately need the scientific method in government. Every proposed law should have a clear statement of the legislation, the problem it is supposed to address, an analysis of its own legality under existing laws and the constitution, an analysis of impact on population, a logical explanation of how it is intended to work, and criteria by which its effectiveness can be judged. All laws should be reviewed after they have been implemented for a reasonable amount of time. Laws that are ineffective, by the stated criteria, or have serious unintended consequences, or were passed based on faulty or fraudulant data, should be discarded.
Sounds perfect! But try that in a real-world democracy, where legislators have to get elected and stay elected, often by appealing to the prejudices, popular 'issues', fears, and even ignorance of the electorate. What legislator is going to vote to 'discard' a law that, regardless of its ineffectuality, is strongly favored by his constituents?
This is only part of the problem. The other part is the persistent myth that anyone can serve on a science education committee. This leads to people like Paul Broun, of Georgia, representing the House Committee for Science and Technology. From an article in the local paper:
"God's word is true," Broun said, according to a video posted on the church's website. "I've come to understand that. All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell. And it's lies to try to keep me and all the folks who are taught that from understanding that they need a savior."
Some kind of test should be a requirement of sorts for people running for these committees or local school boards. Creationism thrives where people like Broun have political power.
In case you haven't seen the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rikEWuBrkHc

bigdakine · 23 June 2014

Jimpithecus said: Snip This is only part of the problem. The other part is the persistent myth that anyone can serve on a science education committee. This leads to people like Paul Broun, of Georgia, representing the House Committee for Science and Technology. From an article in the local paper:
"God's word is true," Broun said, according to a video posted on the church's website. "I've come to understand that. All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and Big Bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of hell. And it's lies to try to keep me and all the folks who are taught that from understanding that they need a savior."
Some kind of test should be a requirement of sorts for people running for these committees or local school boards. Creationism thrives where people like Broun have political power.
Or to put it another way. People like Broun obtain political power where creationism thrives.

callahanpb · 24 June 2014

bigdakine said: In case you haven't seen the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rikEWuBrkHc
I didn't realize they had video back when walls of decapitated animal heads were deemed appropriate backdrop.

mattdance18 · 24 June 2014

eric said:
mattdance18 said: What I meant by "honest signal" was a little different. I meant that the signal sent to the prospective mate must be an honest signal of one's general fitness if such a signaling strategy is to survive over the long term.
There is no requirement in evolution that a fitness-signaling strategy survive over the long term...
Indeed, there is not. That's why I said "if." My point was, and is, that IF a signaling strategy survives over the long term, then it will be an "honest" signal. Whatever be the nature of the signal (e.g. visual, auditory, chemical, behavioral), and whatever be the traits for which the signal serves as a proxy (e.g. immune system, reproductive health, intelligence, even deceptiveness), the signals will tend to be reliable ("honest") indicators of the traits. More clarification below.
...thus we should not be particularly surprised when we see deceptive ones (i.e. signals that represent a fitness greater or at least different from what the organism actually has).
I would not be surprised to see such signals intermittently and/or in the short term. But over the long term, I would be quite surprised to see unreliable ("deceptive") signals persist. If individuals repeatedly and consistently spread less fit genes into the gene pool, this will be detrimental to said gene pool over the long term. Dawkins and colleagues worked out some of this material back in the 70s and 80s. He does talk about in The Selfish Gene. The difficulty has to do with the more general problem of "cheaters." Say some weaker individual is able to signal that he is much fitter than he really is. His offspring will tend to do worse than those of fitter individuals. Any female who mated with him instead of a stronger rival has been suckered: they're her offspring, too, after all. There will thus be a strong selective pressure for females to spot the cheaters and avoid compromising the fitness of their offspring. The math gets complicated, involving a lot of statistical methods from population genetics and game theory from behavioral studies. Nonetheless, it seems to check out. A low level of deceptive signaling, as a phenomenon that crops up from time to time or in isolated individuals, is not surprising and would not present a threat to the stability of the whole system. A high level of deceptive signaling, however, as a phenomenon that comes to characterize the normal courtship behavior of an entire species, would be most unusual. I can't think of any instances. Perhaps I'm wrong.
Several things can happen: the species could just die out; ...
Indeed. And it seems that a comparatively quick way for this to happen would be for deceptive signaling to prospective mates to become the norm. Because then net fitness across the population would decline with every "successful" cycle of reproduction.
...or the environment could change altering the value of the original fitness trait; or the species could evolve such that the originally "advertised" fitness trait is not as important.
Of course. But these changes don't have to do with one potential mate working to deceive the other as to fitness. They have to do with fitness itself, and the traits that provide it, changing as the species or its circumstances change. So I get your point, and agree with it entirely. But it doesn't seem germane to the point now being discussed.
there is a lot of room for somwhat deceptive signaling because of the "slop" inherent in evolution. Not every weakly toad is going to encounter the parasite that could kill him. Today the fox may decide to go after the slow-because-young peacock rather than the slow-because-tail peacock.
Exactly. "NOT EVERY" less fit individual fails to reproduce. But evolution occurs as a population-wide phenomenon, as a matter of statistical averages over time. Consider a purely hypothetical scenario. Take a given species whose net fitness is enhanced by trait A, which could have a value of 1 to 10. Most individuals cluster around 5 or 6. The majority of those in the 4 to 7 range succeed in surviving and reproducing. An even larger majority of those in the 8 to 10 range reproduce. But the great majority of those in the 1 to 3 range fail (for whatever reason) to reproduce successfully. Obviously, it is still not the case that every individual in the usual range for A succeeds, or even every individual on the high end of A. And there will be a few lucky individuals on the low side of the A scale who get to reproduce despite their comparative weakness. But evolution isn't about individuals. It's about populations. Over time, the low-A individuals tend reproduce less successfully. The selection could be stabilizing, such that low-A individuals persist, albeit as a small component of the overall population and a smaller still component of the reproducing population. Or the selection could be directional, such that low-A individuals gradually disappear, and the population is pushed in the direction of a higher typical A value. Regardless, there are going to be outliers along the way. But what you wouldn't expect is for low-A individuals to proliferate -- unless something has clearly changed, e.g., the environment is such that A no longer enhances net fitness. If such a change has not occurred, but low-A individuals continue to proliferate at the expense of others, average net fitness across the population declines, and that doesn't bode well for the species. It's either going to decline so far that it goes extinct or at least has a much reduced footprint in its environment. Could this happen? Absolutely. And conceivably, it could even happen because of the evolution of dishonest courtship signaling among less fit individuals. But it isn't the sort of thing that you would expect to happen in a long-term stable situation.
I would argue then that deceptive signaling is not always unstable. It can be in some cases, but it isn't automatically so.
And for the above reasons, I disagree.
In fact the whole notion of sexual selection kinda supports the notion of stable "useless" traits.
Not true! John Harshman has explained some of the mistakes here very well. But for my own two cents: Sexual selection is precisely about traits that ARE USEFUL, namely for attracting mates.
If sexual selection was all about health and fitness to evade predators/resist disease/etc... then there would be no such things as peacock's tails. The fact that such things exist is prima facie evidence that organisms can "waste" some amount of calories on signals that aren't directly related to surviving predators, disease, hunger, etc... So, misrepresenting ones' fitness is not really much different than growing a big tail or what have you; in both casese, the organism is spending some calories that could've been spent on natural-selection-fitness on making itself attractive to a mate instead.
Sexual selection is a subtype of natural selection. The terminology is a little misleading, frankly. If we want to distinguish "sexual selection" from "survival selection" (to coin a phrase), well, okay. But both being able to survive to maturity and being able to attract a mate (in sexually reproducing species, anyway) are absolutely necessary for reproductive success. In evolutionary terms, the currency for BOTH is "fitness," an average contribution to the gene pool of future generation. An individual that's really good at finding food and avoiding becoming food, but can't find a mate, will not so contribute. Similarly, an individual that would be great at courtship but winds up either with nothing in its own belly or in the belly of another, will not so contribute. So there shouldn't be such distinction as you seem to be making. Selection is selection, whether it's survival to reproductive maturity (or to the next breeding cycle, for species that breed more than once) or reproductive traits themselves (including seemingly frivolous peacocks' tails or a bowerbird's nest of "useless" baubles) that is selected for. Whatever traits enhance that contribution will tend to be selected over the long run.
your point was more about the capacity for deception itself being a potentially attractive quality in the eyes of one's prospective mates,
Not quite. My point was that the capacity for deception of mates might sometimes be co-opted into a more general deceptive capacity, and that this could be a "more classic natural selection" type of advantage rather than just being a sexual selection advantage.
This is interesting! So is the idea sort of "he deceived me, ergo he must be good enough at deception to use it for other purposes, which will be useful for our offspring," or something like that? Because then I could definitely see how deceptive signaling to a mate could spread even in a stable situation. -- Although, paradoxically, this deception would also qualify as an honest signal! For it reliably indicates the quality of the fitness-enhancing trait of deception. It still isn't a case where the individual is displaying out of sync with his actual fitness.

mattdance18 · 24 June 2014

John Harshman said: Now, I know of cases in which features are deceptive. There are scorpionflies that give their prospective mates gifts of insects wrapped in silk -- nice protein for the eggs. But there are other scorpionflies that give their mates gifts of nothing wrapped in silk, and they seem to work as well in attracting said mates. This may be unstable -- there would certainly be an advantage to females capable of spotting the deception -- but not so unstable that it doesn't last long enough for us to observe it.
This is very interesting. I imagine, though, that in these species, the males are still not displaying a greater fitness than they actually have, and thus the signals still are not deceptive. Note how Eric defined a "deceptive" signal: "signals that represent a fitness greater or at least different from what the organism actually has." That, and only that, is what I've been arguing can't be stable over the long term. If every male scorpionfly in a given species does it, then there's nothing for the female to discern; if everybody's cheating, then nobody's got an advantage from cheating anymore. But at that point, sexual selection can kick in, too. Are there traits of the empty silk that are nonetheless still attractive to females? Do they prefer males who produce large silk gifts over those who produce small, for example? And if there are species in which some males offer empty silk but others offer insects, are there significant fitness differentials between the two groups? Are there really two groups at all, or is deception just a last ditch effort among males who would otherwise give insects? Or is it the case that some males always deceive mates? Is it akin to forced mating among other animals, like frogs or ducks? Or is it more like the divergent brute-strength-vs-transvestite-disguise strategies adopted by male cuttlefish? It would be very interesting to know the answers to such questions, I think! And particularly in a species where some male scorpionflies give real gifts and others give fakes, it would be interesting to know what degree of stability there is in that scenario. I rather think it would turn out to be the exception that proves the rule. Because to reiterate, I would still bet just about anything that the signal given to the prospective mate does not indicate fitness above what the signaler actually possesses, at least not on any consistent basis.

bmcennis · 24 June 2014

mattdance18 said: And if there are species in which some males offer empty silk but others offer insects, are there significant fitness differentials between the two groups? Are there really two groups at all, or is deception just a last ditch effort among males who would otherwise give insects? Or is it the case that some males always deceive mates? Is it akin to forced mating among other animals, like frogs or ducks? Or is it more like the divergent brute-strength-vs-transvestite-disguise strategies adopted by male cuttlefish? It would be very interesting to know the answers to such questions, I think! And particularly in a species where some male scorpionflies give real gifts and others give fakes, it would be interesting to know what degree of stability there is in that scenario. I rather think it would turn out to be the exception that proves the rule.
Here's an example of a stable situation where fake gifts are given by the male and accepted by the female: How do genes play a role in conflict between males and females? According to the press release:
In the study published by Gershman and co-authors, a complex breeding design was used to demonstrate that one reason that males and females may be locked in conflict with one another, is that the genes that allow males to have more irresistible gifts are linked to the genes that influence whether or not females can refuse gifts. Because of the genetic link between males and females, females are not able to evolve defenses to avoid being attracted to empty gifts. These results suggest a possible explanation for how conflicts between males and females can persist over long periods of evolutionary time.

mattdance18 · 24 June 2014

bmcennis said: Here's an example of a stable situation where fake gifts are given by the male and accepted by the female: How do genes play a role in conflict between males and females?
Thanks for the link! It reminds of my of Olivia Judson's great book Dr. Tatiana's Sex Advice to All Creation -- easily the funniest book about evolutionary biology I've ever read, and also one of the most informative. It is interesting, though, because it does seem that once again, what we have is an honest signal. A male who can seduce virtually any female, even with a fake gift, stands a very good chance of passing on his genes. And if genes for males to give fake gifts and for females to fall for it are both passed on in the process, then once again, the display is not dishonest about the signaler's own fitness. Moreover, whatever the fitness cost is to the females of the species, it cannot be the case that the trickery/gullibility linkage is, on average across the species, large enough to result in a net loss of fitness -- assuming the species isn't tricking itself (males) or letting itself be tricked (females) into decline and extinction. If it were maladaptive on net, then there would be selection pressure against it. The tendency over the long term would thus be toward the elimination either of the trickery/gullibility dynamic or of the species itself. I do find the "evolutionary battle of the sexes" stuff -- which varies enormously between species, it's important to note -- endless fascinating. Judson's book is really great about this.

mattdance18 · 24 June 2014

mattdance18 said:
If it were maladaptive on net, then there would be selection pressure against it. The tendency over the long term would thus be toward the elimination either of the trickery/gullibility dynamic or of the species itself.
I should add, if it's adaptive on net, even for one sex rather than the other, it's easy to see why selection pressure for it would also cause it to persist. (And it's still not a dishonest signal of the signaler's own fitness! Sorry to harp. But I think it's important to keep in mind what's at issue. Eric described a dishonest signal as a signal that one's fitness is greater than it actually is. And that's what I'm saying can't persist over the long term. Deceiving a mate with a fake gift is different than deceiving one's mate into thinking one is fitter than one is.) (Sorry this is getting soooooooo off topic, also.)

John Harshman · 24 June 2014

Note on terminology: people are using "fitness" to mean what, for want of a better term, is usually called in the literature "quality". "Fitness" is not what is being advertised by sexually selected characters, since the character itself (notably its attractiveness) is a component of fitness. "Quality" is used roughly to refer to those components of fitness exclusive of the sexually selected character, i.e. the sort of thing a character might be signally, whether honestly or not. If one dishonestly advertises one's quality to be better than it is, and that advertisement is convincing, then one's fitness will be greater therefore.

Nuptial gifts (that's the technical term), whether empty or filled, are not necessarily signals of anything. Real gifts are direct contributions to the reproductive success of both the male and female concerned. An empty gift is not a contribution, but it saves the male some effort. It would be an odd definition of "deceptive" that failed to include fake nuptial gifts.

harold · 24 June 2014

Just Bob said:
harold said:
FL said: Question for Just Bob: Is the Louisiana Science Education Act breaking the law? (Sincere question.) FL
Yes, it's unconstitutional, and millions of dollars will be wasted discovering that if anyone ever tries to use it to teach creationism. Louisiana seems to have learned its lesson from Edwards, though. No-one seems to be "taking advantage" of that law to teach creationism.
A law can't break a law. How would one punish it? A person acting under a law can certainly be breaking a different law, and be punished. Such a case calls the respective laws into judicial question, usually with a resolution rendering one of them unconstitutional or otherwise invalid. IANAL, but my surmise is that the mere existence of the LSEA is not illegal, but a person doing what it purports to allow him to do would find himself charged with breaking laws that DO stand up to judicial scrutiny.
Technically true, and I took FL's question to mean "would someone teaching creationism in a public school, claiming their activity is justified by LSEA, be breaking the law?". Still, it's an interesting situation. There is no law against passing bad laws. So a legislative body can do what was done here. They can pass a law that claims to allow certain illegal behavior, that they do not actually have the authority to allow. More egregious examples can easily be imagined. For example suppose some municipal council, dominated by anti-Methodist bigots, passed a law stating that it would be legal to break into the houses of Methodists and rob them. As far as I know the council members are legally allowed to pass nonsensical laws. And "the law itself" is an abstract concept, not an individual person. However, anyone foolish enough to be swayed by such a piece of legislation would be in violation of laws that the municipal council did not really have the power to over-rule. Therefore such "laws" can only do harm. Therefore we may wonder whether there is or should be some mechanism by which such laws could be forcible repealed even before a harmful incident takes place. There does not seem to be, and such laws merely seem to fester until they cause a problem.

Frank J · 24 June 2014

Or to put it another way. People like Broun obtain political power where creationism thrives.

— bigdakine
Creationism thrives all over the US, including in the bluest of states. And not until we get rid of the idiotic stereotype that everyone is either a "conservative Christian creationist" or a "liberal atheist 'Darwinist'" will we begin to make any progress. Unfortunately the great majority of Americans has some real or potential problem with evolution, and that includes those who accept it, but for the wrong reason, and/or understand so poorly that they might as well be "creationists." Seemingly benign comments like "what's the harm, let them believe" and "I guess something like evolution is true, but it's fair to teach both sides" that are the big problem, not the minority that will not admit evolution under any circumstances. By most accounts that minority is at most 25%, and much lower if one restricts it to those who insist on a young earth. And even most of that ~25% will readily admit that they believe their origins story not on the basis of evidence, but because of a book. In other words, the great majority of self-described creationists has effectively admitted defeat on the evidence, or will gladly do so if asked. The only ones who will continue to misrepresent the evidence at every turn are the militant activists of the anti-evolution movement, and they are probably well under 1% of the public. Yet they have fooled the majority. Worse, we keep letting them. As Ken Miller noted in "Only A Theory," the anti-evolution movement has succeeded at dividing the pro-evolution side, mostly along religious lines, while uniting nearly everyone else under their anti-science "big tent." I may have been unclear about this in the past, but I don't expect committed YECs and OECs to give up their emotional war against "Darwinism" and start beating each up over the age of the earth, or over which "kinds" share common ancestors (as real scientists would do). But we can and must drive our own "wedge" between them and those whose problems with evolution are not as hopeless, and who are fully capable of recognizing, and disapproving of that blatant double standard, as well as the relentless misrepresentation of science by the activists. In fact there's no reason we can't drive a "wedge" between the activists and even some committed evolution deniers, at least the ones who take the Ten Commandments at least as seriously as they take Genesis. As for politicians, radical fundamentalists will always get elected somewhere, and nearly all of them will object to evolution, even if they personally have no problem with it. But what often turns that minority into a majority are the less radical Republicans, and yes, many Democrats, who also think that coming out against science, or merely being indifferent to it, is politically advantageous. Even if we take the cynical view that politicians only care about their personal gain, I think a good case can be made to the less radical ones that being anti-science will hurt them in the long run. The quote from Paul Gross, noted conservative biologist comes to mind: "Everybody who has undertaken in the last 300 years to stand against the growth of scientific knowledge has lost." Savvy anti-evolution activists will of course react to quotes like that with the pretense that they are the ones promoting the growth of scientific knowledge, while "Darwinists" are "conspiring" against them. That's the worst lie of all, because not only do "Darwinists" do all the work and take all the risks in science, they are also the ones who encourage students to learn the real "strengths and weaknesses" of evolution, and never stop them from learning creationism/ID, and their weaknesses of course, outside of science class. The real censors are the anti-evolution activists, who steadfastly avoid developing their own theories, cover-up the fatal flaws and embarrassing contradictions within creationism/ID, and have the unmitigated chutzpah to demand taxpayer handouts for them to teach what, at best has not earned the right to be taught in science class. I say "at best" because in practice it's usually far worse, because that unearned material misleads students about science, which ultimately US in terms of scientific competitiveness. That alone ought to disgust anyone who calls himself a conservative.

Rikki_Tikki_Taalik · 25 June 2014

TomS said:
david.starling.macmillan said:
ashleyhr said: YEC denial of feathered dinosaurs is exactly the kind of thing here. Either they were really birds (if the feathers found on fossils are undeniable) or else they were dinosaurs but lacked true feathers ... http://forums.bcseweb.org.uk/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=2955&hilit=yutyrannus
Or, more recently, some YECs have taken to seriously suggesting that God created a “feathered-bipedal-reptile kind” as a separate baramin from the various dinosaur baramins and the various avian baramins. Not even kidding. That’s how they approach these things. Ten years ago, they insisted that no feathered dinosaurs could ever exist…now, feathered dinosaurs are their own special created kind. Their goalposts are on wheels.
When I was first introduced to YEC, I would have thought that all fossils would be rejected as something either constructed by paleontologists from funny-shaped rocks or a something planted by Satan. So I was pleased to see that the YECs have made that accommodation to science. And that they can move to accept feathered bipedal reptile as being real makes me think that maybe there will be a time when there will be an acceptance of "reptile"-bird evolution. Maybe there is some other Biblical explanation that someone will interpret the Bible as literally saying. (Like how the Bible really says that the Earth is a planet.)
ashleyhr said: If the Christian god exists and if the Bible is his true word to humanity, why is every argument made by young earth (Biblical) creationists against any unbiblical science invariably nonsense?
Because there is no "unbiblical" science, only "contrary-to-the-privileged-underinformed-arbitrarily-invented-interpretation-of-the-Bible-and-uncomfortable-for-various-reasons science".
And, after all, how uncomfortable is it to say that birds are descended from dinosaurs?
I'd imagine the discomfort level to depend on the level of cognitive dissonance. As it probably occurs mostly with the "creation scientists" who actually attempt to deal with the scientific data looking for a way to deny it, they've been forced to move the goalposts in admitting that dinos had feathers. The evidence is too overwhelming now. I believe some of them realize but refuse to publicly admit that birds are descended from dinos for the simple fact that once you admit this even to yourself it's completely absurd to deny the relatively smaller changes in a shorter amount of time that have occurred in our descent from our hairy, smaller brained, tree/savannah dwelling ancestors. Yeah, birds from dinos, ok. But from hairy apes to largely hairless and walking upright apes? Impossible! That requires supernatural magic! Even they realize, I think, what an absurd position this would be and to admit any of it publicly would give away the game. Most kids would see through that BS fairly easily and you can't have that when indoctrination and apologetics are your only tools and your churches are dying.

Henry J · 25 June 2014

Dinos with feathers?

Inconceivable!

(After all, if dinos had feathers, wouldn't we have seen that on the Flintstones TV rockumentaries? )

mattdance18 · 25 June 2014

John Harshman said: Note on terminology: people are using "fitness" to mean what, for want of a better term, is usually called in the literature "quality". "Fitness" is not what is being advertised by sexually selected characters, since the character itself (notably its attractiveness) is a component of fitness. "Quality" is used roughly to refer to those components of fitness exclusive of the sexually selected character, i.e. the sort of thing a character might be signally, whether honestly or not. If one dishonestly advertises one's quality to be better than it is, and that advertisement is convincing, then one's fitness will be greater therefore.
Thanks for the clarification, John! It would seem that I've been running together a couple terms that need to be kept separate. Could definitely explain some of the confusions I've had in understanding or expression.

callahanpb · 25 June 2014

John Harshman said: If one dishonestly advertises one's quality to be better than it is, and that advertisement is convincing, then one's fitness will be greater therefore.
I think creation "scientists" understand this point well enough already.

apokryltaros · 26 June 2014

DS said: Question for Floyd: Watched Cosmos yet? How about Your Inner Fish? Thought not.
An even better question for FL: Has he explained how the diversification from one species of fruit fly to 500 species of fruit flies over the course of 8 million years does not demonstrate "evolution" because they're still just fruit flies in an intelligent, logical and truthful manner? That is, without invoking the "Moving the Goalpost" fallacy?

apokryltaros · 26 June 2014

FL said: Question for Just Bob: Is the Louisiana Science Education Act breaking the law? (Sincere question.) FL
Yes, given as how the act's intended purpose is to permit the teaching of anti-science religious propaganda in the form of Creationism to be taught in science classrooms of public schools, which otherwise violates the First Amendment of the US Constitution, which forbids the government from officially favoring one religion over another. If you went to a school staffed by competent teachers, FL, you would have already known this long ago.

Scott F · 29 June 2014

FL said: Question for Just Bob: Is the Louisiana Science Education Act breaking the law? (Sincere question.) FL
IANAL, but I do not believe that that is a "sincere question". It is a non-sequitor, a "category error". A law that is passed by a legislature cannot be "breaking the law" or abiding by the law. A law may be found by a Court to be consistent with the Constitution, or inconsistent with the Constitution (i.e. unconstitutional). Only the acts of entities that are subject to a law can "break" that law. In this case, a "literal reading" of the law would not find anything particularly unconstitutional about it. However, the law gives the impression (and it was clearly the intent of the Legislature) that a teacher is encouraged to and may "safely" violate the Constitution in order to use his or her position as a government employee to promote his or her own personal religious beliefs as though they had the endorsement of the government. Such an act is clearly in violation of the US Constitution, and would therefore be "breaking the law". But until there is such an unconstitutional act, then there is no violation of the Constitution.